Sold all my gold, got stung

[KDave]

"Only hold as much gold as your understanding allows"

Post Brexit the £ will likely crash again, Carney will see to it as he did straight after the vote in 2016 - he QE'd and knocked interest rates down losing us a sickening amount of purchasing power in sterling. Those in gold saw a relative increase in their purchasing power of their savings relative to houses, stocks, anything priced in sterling that didn't move higher right away. 

Measured in sterling house prices have not done much around here. Measured in gold houses have crashed since December 2015. I sold most of my gold after Brexit and bought.

[silenceissilver]

10 hours ago, Glorfindel said:

The thing I take issue with is people trying to make me feel bad for not selling them here. I just did not (and still don't) feel comfortable about informally selling to individuals who I don't know.  I'm by no means happy that I lost money, but I am relieved to have got out of gold with a relatively small loss. I could be completely wrong about the gold price/Brexit - but surely you can understand that I did not want to risk it? Money in a LISA saving for my first house is a much better use of the cash imo.

We can all understand you want to minimise your risk. What I don't understand and I assume a few others here, is that you think shares and bonds bear less risk than gold, particular in these financially volatile times with such obvious bubbles on the stock markets and high levels of government debts.

[sixgun]

14 hours ago, Glorfindel said:

The thing I take issue with is people trying to make me feel bad for not selling them here. I just did not (and still don't) feel comfortable about informally selling to individuals who I don't know.  I'm by no means happy that I lost money, but I am relieved to have got out of gold with a relatively small loss. I could be completely wrong about the gold price/Brexit - but surely you can understand that I did not want to risk it? Money in a LISA saving for my first house is a much better use of the cash imo.

A few comments here are a bit harsh but to be expected. You have been a member of this forum for the best part of 2 years.

In April 2017 you posted asking about which gold coins to buy. You were showered with 2 pages of suggestions. You made good choices in the coins you got if you were looking at 1oz coins. Your intention was to hold them for a number of years. All good so far. You joined a community of gold bugs, you asked for advice, you made good coin choices, you realised gold coins are longer time frame holdings.

You did not post on the forum since then and selling the coins. That does not mean you haven't been reading and learning about gold and silver, a lot of people prefer to watch and read rather than mucking in. However i suspect you haven't been reading much.

You then sold the coins. You didn't ask for the advice of the community but you did come back to tell us you made a £600 loss selling to Atkinson's. You panicked - you say you wanted to get rid of them as quickly as possible.

Members are being unsympathetic b/c to them it is barn door obvious that rather than posting to say you 'got stung' you should have posted asking for advice about selling. You would have had a queue of people wanting to buy those coins. You could have used Backyard Bullion as an intermediary, a new service he is offering. Longstanding members would not diddle you, they have their good name to defend, they are decent honest members of a community. You are in a round about way saying we are untrustworthy. You didn't trust us anyway.

i don't think selling now was the right decision but i might be proven wrong. That is a judgement call that only and time will tell. The issue is you didn't need to lose the £600. You could have come out clean, you might even have made a profit.

It is done now.

Edited December 1, 2018 by sixgun

[HawkHybrid]

13 hours ago, Abyss said:

3 x Britannia (2016, 2017)
1 x Queens Beast Lion
2 x Queens Beast Dragon
2 x Queens Beast Griffin

Someone offered the above at spot +3% I would buy without hesitation because of number of QBs for sale. New seller or don’t have enough feedback @BackyardBullion offers intermediary service. As for @Glorfindel nobody knows the future and you maybe right to liquidate your position (most likely got better liquidation price on the Silver forums than a dealer). 

My stack PMs going used for one of two purposes.

Pass on as inheritance to my son or convert into another asset type (rental properties) if/when circumstances right in my lifetime.

This posts raises some interesting concerns and fears that are within everyone who has purchased PMs (including myself) have we made a bad decision? From current Gold spot price if it was to fall further 10-40% there would a lot individuals who would experience the same anxiety and fears as @Glorfindel. 

I am in Dubai on annual leave just now but before I left spoken senior ICICI life insurance people managing funds for NRIs (Non Residential Indians) in India and asked wanted anything from UK/Dubai and they stated just bring as much gold as you can 😁 (I was referring to sweets/chocolates). Go from on country to another swooping one piece of paper for another but Gold espically in Asia is viewed as real tangible wealth.

 

I don't agree with this interpretation of the charts.

gold had been moving up large amounts from it's bottom.

it got temporarily over bought and peaked. it then corrected

sharply before continuing its upward trend. the correction is

from a peak. that's not the same as saying that gold will

go down sharply from a point that's already ~50% correction

of it's move from $1050-$1360. we might already be near the

bottom of that corrective move.

 

HH

[sixgun]

35 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

I don't agree with this interpretation of the charts. Gold had been moving up large amounts from it's bottom. it got temporarily over bought and peaked. it then corrected sharply before continuing its upward trend. the correction is from a peak. that's not the same as saying that gold will go down sharply from a point that's already ~50% correction of it's move from $1050-$1360. we might already be near the bottom of that corrective move.

HH

The issue is the value of Sterling - some here believe Sterling will fall against other currencies including gold due to Brexit and some think when the  uncertainty is out of the way Sterling with appreciate (but perhaps not back to where it is now). i think both are correct.

i expect the Government will be defeated in the Commons and then there will be a fall in Sterling. i don't think this is all priced in. There will be an overreaction as there always is and then some recovery. The window of opportunity to sell gold in the short term is likely to be in the pandemonium after the government loses the vote.

Longer term we see gold as a good place to be. This is why we are both here.

[Abyss]

2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 don't agree with this interpretation of the charts. gold had been moving up large amounts from it's bottom. it got temporarily over bought and peaked. it then corrected sharply before continuing its upward trend. the correction is from a peak. that's not the same as saying that gold will go down sharply from a point that's already ~50% correction of it's move from $1050-$1360. we might already be near the bottom of that corrective move.

HH

I held similar beliefs until recently. Gold international commodity not dependent upon who is in government or the politics of a single country but the UK does represent the 5th largest economy in the world and plays a significant role in Gold in international trade so impact of Brexit cannot be mitigated. GBP and the strength or weakness will be positive or negative (short term) for those hold gold in the UK.

My analysis of the charts show that in this 7+ year bear market retracement gold should hit $1,000 and retest the break out that resulted in the bull market starting 2009. But if this level does not hold then next major level support (looking at monthly charts) $700 range.

My strategy continue purchase 10 oz Gold in the QB series for every release regardless of where the spot price is at the time. Gold hit $1,000 oz level then I will purchase physical Gold in  quantity that will double existing Gold stack. Gold reaches $700 level than I will triple physical position in Gold at which point I will have converted all my fiat into Gold. My strategy buy on the way down at key levels.

Will price of Gold ever get to $1,000 or $700 who knows. I don't want to scare anyone but I am mentally preparing myself and having a strategy in place to cope with $200 or $500 lower spot prices in Gold and trying to avoid the roller coaster of emotions I am sure that @Glorfindel experienced when he/she liquidated their position. I can see two circumstances where significantly lower Gold spot prices can happen. Collective efforts from central banks to continue fiat system and suppress price of Gold. Dollar Index continues to strengthen.

I don't know where the saying comes from but I hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[sixgun]

@Abyss the UK is a big exporter of gold. The bars go to Switzerland where they are refined into 1kg bars which get shipped to Asia. Gold forms a large part of the non-EU export trade. So coming out of the EU won't make any difference to this. It will be priced in USD.

At the moment gold miners are at best treading water. They are not making profits. Quite a number are losing money at current prices. They have been helped a bit by the lower oil price. Many have a lot of debt which is why they cannot make a profit at the moment. Gold mining becomes completely uneconomic at $1000. A $700 gold price is just mind boggling. You would never be able to buy an ounce of gold for $700 whatever the paper price might be.

We should remember that following 2008 the central banks cranked up the printing presses. We have had QE to infinity. We should remember that gold is money. The real rate of inflation in the large US cities over the last 5 years has averaged between 7 and 12%. In Californian cities in the last 5 years the cost of living has gone up 60%. Fiat currency is worth 60% less than 5 years ago on the West Coast. www.chapwoodindex.com  This is why the price of gold is in reality ridiculously low b/c it is money and fiat 'money' after multiple rounds of QE is rapidly being inflated away to nothing.

The only way the price of gold could get to $1000 and lower is for the physical and paper markets to become totally disconnected. Then the COMEX is the future price of paper and has no relation to physical gold.

[HawkHybrid]

on your chart, do you see the small body blue candle in early 2010.

that was the first re test following the breakout of the now support

zone ~$1000. the bottom of that candle doesn't actually touch

your support zone(shaded zone). you need to increase your zone

to include that re test. doing so would make the 2015 low another

re test of that zone. I'm not convinced it needs to re test that support

zone again.

 

HH

 

[Abyss]

@HawkHybrid everyone interprets charts differently according their perspective and experiences hence technical analysis has an element of art. I don’t count 2015 as low on larger time frame because did not retrace back to broken resistance that should now act as support. 

Sorry chats not as accurate and as clean as I would like them but using work laptop rather than my desktop on 27inch monitor away as I am abroad.

@sixgun you are most likely right spot hit $1,000 let alone $700 physical metal no longer available for delivery but financially the world stop making sense for some time now. I know western central banks do everything in their power to maintain status quo and with help from other central banks they will keep rigged game going. Gold does not need fall in price further but in the next 10 years kept range bound below $1,300 have they not achieved the same objectives? Punish those that hold PMs while trying to inflate other asset bubbles.

[sixgun]

The cabal have kept gold and silver in a price range since 2014, gold between - 1350/1050.

At the time price went down to 1050, Goldman Sachs was advising clients to short gold and making out it would go to 800. At the same time they were loading up on gold as was China, Russia and the remaining nations not in the asylum.

Edited December 1, 2018 by sixgun

[HawkHybrid]

@Abyss it's not about personal interpretation of charts.

a bounce from the 2015 low and not seeing that level again

for 3 years and counting is a pretty strong bounce. in all the

bounces off lows(at the time) from the down move from

2011-2015, non were more than a year before testing the

support again. imo it's been dragged out because it doesn't

want to go back there.

what is your explanation for why it's taking over 3 years to

test the support?

 

HH

[dicker]

On 30/11/2018 at 21:09, Roy said:

Sure, it was your avatar that confused me! 😉

I ask because I'm in my 6th decade of life and I don't know what is around the corner. 

I always read 'for the long term' or 'for my kids' yet it's alien to me. I haven't had that option.

Wait. What? Gold has been available for ever so why are people stacking 'for the long term' now when there wasn't that option before?

It seems that silver and gold have become the greatest asset class available. Well, since 2011 that is.

Don't give your kids gold. They know less what to do with it than you do. Should they leave it to their kids?

Use your gold. Buy bricks and mortar and land when everyone else has to sell. Spend it when it's most wanted.

As for inheritance, don't die a rich man. 😉

I missed this. But just to answer your questions:

- I don’t just collect PM’s - I invest in lots of asset classes and run a couple of businesses outside of my main job.  Almost all of my investments are long term 10+ years  

- For my kids - because I want them to have a better life than I have had with better early opportunities rather than doing it the hard way. My kids can sell PM’s, properties, investments etc that I leave them and chose what they want to do with the money.

- Bricks and mortar are part of any investment strategy but it’s about balance, and PM’s give a little of that.

All the best

dicker

[Abyss]

@HawkHybrid going try justify my explanation why I don't consider 2015 bounce as the major low for the bull market retracement

The 2015 low did not hit the Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6 or touch previous resistance zone should now act as support.

Three failed attempts after the 2015 low prices break above 1370. The power of three significant in Japanese candlestick patterns and a break in the trend line.

Spot price of gold may go higher back to the 1370 level but ultimately I see gold spot price heading below 2015 low to find major support and trigger liquidation positions from those with weaker hands. Gold spot prices move below $1,000 level very physiological and would also have an impact to those holding gold (paper and physical) to accept losses and exit their positions as well.

[sixgun]

 

[HawkHybrid]

@Abyss imo you're counting the waves incorrectly.

if you were to count fib retracement from 2007 start of the wave

of ~$550 you would get a fib retracment of ~61.8% in 2015.

the bull market did not start from the point of the financial

crisis in 2009. that wave preceded the financial crisis. successful

long term investing buying is predictive and is not born from

impulse black swan events. the financial crisis created an anomaly

on the charts which looks like the beginning of a new wave. the

foundations of that new wave was 2 years prior. also the bull

market did not end in 2011 hence the 61.8% retracement.

the 2017 low is merely a 78.6% retracement of the early 2016 wave.

it's a weak trend at best and does not imply increased selling

pressure when broken.(it's only made up of 2 points per chance).

 

HH

[Abyss]

@HawkHybridthank you for your analysis very much appreciated. Redraw the Fib levels start of the bull market June 2016 then price reacted 50% retracement and next level down the 61.8%. Did the bull market in Gold start in June 2006 instead Oct 2008 then yes it did. Will I use this point for the start of my Fib levels the answer would be no.

The reason why I will not have my starting point in 2006 because of the trend line created in the bull market or the start of 2008. This trend line provides clear explanation of price action and allows individual manage their risk and provide clear break in the bull market trend that allowed holders of gold to exit their position when the bull market had finished.

Start the trend line 2006 then hard to provide an explanation to the price action that followed. We have a difference of opinion.

[Mcgrimes]

I came here to say that chart analysis is a load of bad; if the patterns were true then everyone would be a millionaire.

I have my gold as a hedge against a bad Brexit.

[HawkHybrid]

13 minutes ago, Mcgrimes said:

I came here to say that chart analysis is a load of bad; if the patterns were true then everyone would be a millionaire.

I have my gold as a hedge against a bad Brexit.

 

misconception of charting. charting is not a crystal ball.

it's like counting cards in a card game. it might increase

your probability of winning overall, but is not guaranteed.

at any point the market can still go both ways, but the odds

of it moving in any one direction changes depending on the

'sum' of what has happened before that.

trading is a zero sum game. there must be losers for there

to be winners. hence everyone cannot trade using charts to

be millionaires(winners). 

 

HH

Edited December 2, 2018 by HawkHybrid

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Abyss said:

Start the trend line 2006 then hard to provide an explanation to the price action that followed.

 

what's more important? something that might help explain what

is happening now or something that helps explain what has

happened but the opportunity to trade is well and truly over?

(charting is flexible, I would use what works regardless of how

illogical it seems ie use both)

didn't you find it odd that your 78.6% predicted retracement didn't

land exactly on the support zone ~$1000?

(so either the retracement would hit support at ~$1000 and bounce,

or it would break support at ~$1000 and then bounce just below it

at 78.6% support ie not get the follow through after it broke support)

 

HH

[Abyss]

25 minutes ago, Mcgrimes said:

I came here to say that chart analysis is a load of bad; if the patterns were true then everyone would be a millionaire.

I have my gold as a hedge against a bad Brexit.

Technical analysis has lot of negative associations. I could add hundreds of indicators to the charts and come into state of paralysis by analysis. You need devote time energy, effort, dedication into the study of Technical Analysis before dismissing it as voodoo science. I use Technical Analysis to avoid the following situation happening and keep my  emotional state in check.

But as with everything in life the more you study/practice the more proficient you become.

[Abyss]

Thanks @HawkHybrid but I need to make sense what happened in the past as the markets are a representation of human behaviour that has repeatable patters. Looking for areas of confluence Fib retracement level with prior resistance should now act as support and then looking for how price action represented as candlesticks forms at those key levels before allocating larger proportion of my portfolio into physical gold.

I don't believe 2016 low is the base because of the recent break in the trend line and over the next year or two the 2016 low price in spot should be challenged imho. I am bullish over the long term (next 10 years) but shorter time frames bearish.

[HawkHybrid]

in elliott wave terms the wave that started 2009 might be

the 5th wave of the larger wave that started 2007. ie it's a

smaller bull trend within a larger bull trend. hence the trend

support. it's a wave of a lesser degree than the retracement

wave starting 2011. that's why fib retracement don't fit(you're

miss matching waves of different degrees).

my best guess is minor wave 1 and major bull wave starting

2006. minor wave 1 ended early 2006. minor wave 3 of bull

wave starts on the blue hammerhead and continues to 2008

peak. 2009 bottom starts minor wave 5 which ends 2011.

being a wave 5 also means it ends the wave of a higher

degree which in this case is the larger wave that is 2006-2011.

I'm only guessing here.

 

HH

Edited December 2, 2018 by HawkHybrid

[BigDave84]

23 minutes ago, Bdean316 said:

Why do people think we're not leaving the EU - if we don't there will be riots and democrasy will be dead in the UK.

It's either May's deal or no deal - simples

You've only got to look at whats happening in France right now. That will the UK if we don't end up leaving

[RichmondStacker]

15 minutes ago, BigDave84 said:

You've only got to look at whats happening in France right now. That will the UK if we don't end up leaving

Also the way Taqiyya May has derailed the process from the beginning for her paymasters, she is putting the communist party closer to power.  I’ll be hiding my gold in Richmond Park before they get a chance to confiscate it once they have cleaned our pensions and savings out. 

[Mcgrimes]

5 hours ago, Abyss said:

Technical analysis has lot of negative associations. I could add hundreds of indicators to the charts and come into state of paralysis by analysis. You need devote time energy, effort, dedication into the study of Technical Analysis before dismissing it as voodoo science. I use Technical Analysis to avoid the following situation happening and keep my  emotional state in check.

But as with everything in life the more you study/practice the more proficient you become.

Admittedly I’d class that more of a fundamental strategy; I’ve tried and tested typical ‘technical’ strategies with candlesticks and come to learn it’s a guess with less than a 50% success rate due to the spread. 

The chart you’ve shared would likey coincide with typical fundamentals such as P/E ratios.

What really frustrates me with technicals is the traders who value the Fibbionaci ratio like a golden ticket to the chocolate factory; and I bet some book sellers make a killing,

My strategy? Look for reliable earners with good track records and a place in the market. I’m boring when it comes to equities.