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March 29th 2019, it happens formally is the schedule. Currently politicians trying to sort out as many of the bigger more important trade and cross border details with their European Union counterparts.

Edited by Oldun

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My worry is we will end up with a half in, half out arrangement, the leavers will be p*ssed, the remainers will still be p*ssed, and no democratic vote held in the UK will have any legitimacy ever again. That is worst case scenario. 

Best case scenario is we leave without a deal. 

 

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I think the shambles that is the Brexit negotiations were highlighted pretty well today. I woke up and checked news while having breakfast. Top news everywhere was the announcement that a deal had been reached with the EU for the financial service sector and a broader deal was to be agreed imminently. Big news all things considered. This was reported by the BBC, Sky, all leading news papers and featured at the top of my Google News feed. Roll on to mid day and the news changed to state the EU and UK governments were backtracking and stating there was in fact no deal for financial services. Fast forward a few more hours and all articles that were widely circulated in the morning are gone - there is no longer any mention of any kind of deal either way.

This really highlighted to me that no one has a fkn clue what is going on

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5 hours ago, KDave said:

My worry is we will end up with a half in, half out arrangement, the leavers will be p*ssed, the remainers will still be p*ssed, and no democratic vote held in the UK will have any legitimacy ever again. That is worst case scenario. 

Best case scenario is we leave without a deal. 

 

I hope this kind of thing doesn't happen.

If it did, it would be in direct opposition to the will of the UK people.  I mean the country did have a vote, and it isn't like people didn't understand what they were voting for - it was a very lengthy process, lots of hard feelings, major publicity, brother against brother, all of that, so there's absolutely no legitimate reason to do anything but Brexit.  Doing anything but carrying that out is essentially a coup, subverting the will of the people, acting against their wishes as expressed by a national vote.  I don't know how any politician justifies something like that.  I mean it's no longer a form of Democracy if the people's votes are simply ignored, it's some kind of oligarchy.

Edited by Lowlow

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8 hours ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

I think the shambles that is the Brexit negotiations were highlighted pretty well today. I woke up and checked news while having breakfast. Top news everywhere was the announcement that a deal had been reached with the EU for the financial service sector and a broader deal was to be agreed imminently. Big news all things considered. This was reported by the BBC, Sky, all leading news papers and featured at the top of my Google News feed. Roll on to mid day and the news changed to state the EU and UK governments were backtracking and stating there was in fact no deal for financial services. Fast forward a few more hours and all articles that were widely circulated in the morning are gone - there is no longer any mention of any kind of deal either way.

This really highlighted to me that no one has a fkn clue what is going on

Sounds like it never happened! Rewriting history, there's 1984 in real life.

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3 hours ago, Lowlow said:

I hope this kind of thing doesn't happen.

If it did, it would be in direct opposition to the will of the UK people.  I mean the country did have a vote, and it isn't like people didn't understand what they were voting for - it was a very lengthy process, lots of hard feelings, major publicity, brother against brother, all of that, so there's absolutely no legitimate reason to do anything but Brexit.  Doing anything but carrying that out is essentially a coup, subverting the will of the people, acting against their wishes as expressed by a national vote.  I don't know how any politician justifies something like that.  I mean it's no longer a form of Democracy if the people's votes are simply ignored, it's some kind of oligarchy.

I've, for a very long time, disbelieved the 'will of the people' speech that politicians spout at every turn.  We get the political systems we deserve.  It's a sorry state of affairs all round, whether you voted to leave or remain.  Although,  I have found the whole spectacle quite comical.  It does feel like an impenetrable puzzle with easy no solutions.  I'll be leaving for faraway shores within a couple of years, so I'm quite laidback and unfazed about the much-publicised turmoil which will happen.  More likely a damp squib after a few days, like every crisis.

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8 hours ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

I think the shambles that is the Brexit negotiations were highlighted pretty well today. I woke up and checked news while having breakfast. Top news everywhere was the announcement that a deal had been reached with the EU for the financial service sector and a broader deal was to be agreed imminently. Big news all things considered. This was reported by the BBC, Sky, all leading news papers and featured at the top of my Google News feed. Roll on to mid day and the news changed to state the EU and UK governments were backtracking and stating there was in fact no deal for financial services. Fast forward a few more hours and all articles that were widely circulated in the morning are gone - there is no longer any mention of any kind of deal either way.

This really highlighted to me that no one has a fkn clue what is going on

The initial optimistic news did push up the Pound by three cents!  Over the past ten days or so, the Pound fell from $1.32 to $1.27.  To me this was quite a substantial fall but it was hardly mentioned in the news.  Suddenly there is some "good" news and the Pound goes up by three cents - well I suppose it is better than an increase in interest rates!  But I am confident there was no attempt to feed fake news to the currency markets.

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5 hours ago, Tingles said:

I've, for a very long time, disbelieved the 'will of the people' speech that politicians spout at every turn.  We get the political systems we deserve.  It's a sorry state of affairs all round, whether you voted to leave or remain.  Although,  I have found the whole spectacle quite comical.  It does feel like an impenetrable puzzle with easy no solutions.  I'll be leaving for faraway shores within a couple of years, so I'm quite laidback and unfazed about the much-publicised turmoil which will happen.  More likely a damp squib after a few days, like every crisis.

I can't think of anything that could be more important to the people of the UK, you've made a decision about whether you will be a sovereign nation or a state within a larger union.  It's as life altering as an individual's decision whether they will be married or not.  Not a decision to take lightly.

Edited by Lowlow

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18 minutes ago, Lowlow said:

I can't think of anything that could be more important to the people of the UK, you've made a decision about whether you will be a sovereign nation or a state within a larger union.  It's as life altering as an individual's decision whether they will be married or not.  Not a decision to take lightly.

From what I’ve observed and discussed with family and friends.  Very few think it’s a ‘big thing’ and just want it finalised.  It has certainly shown the political classes in a very bad light.  I’ve consulted to some central government departments and I know how inept / inefficient they can be.  Life will go on, contrary to what the media says. I don’t think the UK will change very much.  We’ve been around over a thousand years and I’m not expecting more than a few riots until it rains - that usually stops any uprising.  Our favourite drink is tea, we don’t do revolution, the public is well controlled and more interested in celebrity gossip, a new iPhone and the royal family.

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16 hours ago, Tingles said:

From what I’ve observed and discussed with family and friends.  Very few think it’s a ‘big thing’ and just want it finalised.  It has certainly shown the political classes in a very bad light.  I’ve consulted to some central government departments and I know how inept / inefficient they can be.  Life will go on, contrary to what the media says. I don’t think the UK will change very much.  We’ve been around over a thousand years and I’m not expecting more than a few riots until it rains - that usually stops any uprising.  Our favourite drink is tea, we don’t do revolution, the public is well controlled and more interested in celebrity gossip, a new iPhone and the royal family.

Yeah, you've been around for a thousand years ... and you were a sovereign nation (or at least a free people) the entire time, through the Roman conquests, through Viking invasions, wars with basically every country in Europe, a falling out with the Roman Catholic church, left standing in the face of Nazi aggression in World War 2 ... that entire time England has stood up to all comers, all the way until a bunch of pencil pushers tried to sell her out to the European Union.  I just don't see how that isn't a big thing - your own countrymen stood up and said no, they wouldn't have it, as an outsider looking in I find that inspiring - it gives me hope, and makes me proud, and I'm not even from the UK.

 

Edit ... when I look in the mirror I see a descendent from your country, the same hair, eyes, hands, .. hell, I'm literally typing words on a keyboard in the language your country gave to me.

Edited by Lowlow

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3 hours ago, Lowlow said:

Yeah, you've been around for a thousand years ... and you were a sovereign nation (or at least a free people) the entire time, through the Roman conquests, through Viking invasions, wars with basically every country in Europe, a falling out with the Roman Catholic church, left standing in the face of Nazi aggression in World War 2 ... that entire time England has stood up to all comers, all the way until a bunch of pencil pushers tried to sell her out to the European Union.  I just don't see how that isn't a big thing - your own countrymen stood up and said no, they wouldn't have it, as an outsider looking in I find that inspiring - it gives me hope, and makes me proud, and I'm not even from the UK.

 

Edit ... when I look in the mirror I see a descendent from your country, the same hair, eyes, hands, .. hell, I'm literally typing words on a keyboard in the language your country game to me.

Understood.  The difference, your stock rebelled, mine has not.

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4 hours ago, Tingles said:

Understood.  The difference, your stock rebelled, mine has not.

You need to read some history, it is full of rebellion. Most of our laws and freedoms we have today are due to rebellion some time in the past. Brexit is a form of rebellion have no doubt about it. 

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59 minutes ago, KDave said:

You need to read some history, it is full of rebellion. Most of our laws and freedoms we have today are due to rebellion some time in the past. Brexit is a form of rebellion have no doubt about it. 

History is fine.  I just don’t see the great British public collectively summoning up enough gumption to rebel.  Everyone is too comfortable.  The country is fairly divided but still I don’t see any sort of insurrection anytime soon.

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i see Barclays is moving a significant portion of their business to Ireland. Overnight they will be the largest bank in Ireland

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/barclays-seeking-to-move-250bn-business-to-republic-ahead-of-brexit-1.3680943

i hear there is serious talk about other entities moving business to Amsterdam. All part the fear porn perhaps. Maybe maybe not.

The UK industrial base has been gutted since the 1960's. There is way too much emphasis on the financial service sector. The shift in business out of London will lead to London no longer being the world centre for finance. This is cause central London property prices to collapse. The ripple will cross the country. i hear China has been patiently waiting for this - pay back for the Opium Wars. The shrinking finance sector will be hard on property and the knock on's will be very hard on the 'UK economy'. The UK would become very attractive to invest in - it would become a cheaper place to live and work. Those heavily in debt with property would be fried in the deflationary spiral. i am out of property in the UK - patiently waiting......

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41 minutes ago, sixgun said:

i hear there is serious talk about other entities moving business

There is. On of the world's largest banks is going to move 80% (!) of their London sales staff to Paris. Overall some 4,500 banking staff will form the first wave of the Brexodus of the City of London. 

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1 minute ago, augur said:

There is. On of the world's largest banks is going to move 80% (!) of their London sales staff to Paris. Overall some 4,500 banking staff will form the first wave of the Brexodus of the City of London. 

This overemphasis on making money out of money rather making money by making things has been a blight on the UK for a long time - since at least the late Victoria era. Germany has made money by making things - their developing industries in the years before WWI was one of the reasons there was a WWI and her industrial development in the National Socialist era was one of the real reason for WWII - to smash Germany economically.

So the demise of the financial sector will be a big blow in the short to medium term but has the potential to be a step forwards in the longer run.

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Too much money is made in the City if London for it to be allowed to stop. The last 30 years has seen massive resistance to any form of change in the financial world - a way is always found for things to stay the same. Brexit will be no different.

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2 hours ago, sixgun said:

i see Barclays is moving a significant portion of their business to Ireland. Overnight they will be the largest bank in Ireland

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/barclays-seeking-to-move-250bn-business-to-republic-ahead-of-brexit-1.3680943

i hear there is serious talk about other entities moving business to Amsterdam. All part the fear porn perhaps. Maybe maybe not.

The UK industrial base has been gutted since the 1960's. There is way too much emphasis on the financial service sector. The shift in business out of London will lead to London no longer being the world centre for finance. This is cause central London property prices to collapse. The ripple will cross the country. i hear China has been patiently waiting for this - pay back for the Opium Wars. The shrinking finance sector will be hard on property and the knock on's will be very hard on the 'UK economy'. The UK would become very attractive to invest in - it would become a cheaper place to live and work. Those heavily in debt with property would be fried in the deflationary spiral. i am out of property in the UK - patiently waiting......

China, they know how to play the 'long game'.

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3 hours ago, Tingles said:

China, they know how to play the 'long game'.

For all their faults, lifetime totalitarian rule does have some advantages ...

In the U.S., our legislators chase after the emergency of the day like kittens chasing lasers ...

Edited by Lowlow

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