Palladium.

[latinomanz69]

Oh, I dont think it is the time to sell yet, because they always offer you less than the spot price and with the shipping, it will be more, so I dont think it is the same yet.

[flim]

over here they discount 7% of GST, so dealer offer to buy back at spot -7%

in OZ, not many are willing to take in, most likely someone would take in for spot -10%, their on going GST rate

for UK, most likely the take in is spot -17% VAT ??

 

[latinomanz69]

I am not from the UK, so I dont know but you can see if you sell it now if you can make a profit and if you can i would be it wont be that much but you can sell and then wait until it drops again and buy again but ask yourself, is it worth all the trouble for the profit you are going to make? I would wait until they all go back up again in the next recession.

[Stu]

As an example spot price £982, Hatton garden metals buy price currently £640, for that reason I'm out.

[flim]

43 minutes ago, Stu said:

As an example spot price £982, Hatton garden metals buy price currently £640, for that reason I'm out.

you can fly a boeing 737 through that gap 🤣

the melt value can be higher

[latinomanz69]

1 hour ago, Stu said:

As an example spot price £982, Hatton garden metals buy price currently £640, for that reason I'm out.

That is way too low, in the US provident metals pays a bit better.

[flim]

On 05/10/2018 at 08:18, latinomanz69 said:

Hello,

Is Palladium investment worth it?

Thanks.

the question can finally be answered

Yes it was a worthwhile long term investment, just sold them last night. 

[latinomanz69]

9 hours ago, flim said:

the question can finally be answered

Yes it was a worthwhile long term investment, just sold them last night. 

 

Thats beautiful, I will post my collection once I get my cellphone in a few days, right now PD is too high, I think Pt is low right now, I might even be lower next week on Tuesday since prices tend to be cheaper on Tuesdays and then Thursdays.

[flim]

7 hours ago, Golddigger69 said:

Wow, nice. What was your average buying price and may i ask what are those green 'stilwater' things? I have never seen such items.

those are Johnson Matthey 

https://www.google.com/search?q=stillwater+palladium&sa=X&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=u5UIcbqvbn5mNM%2Cjynv9plUdhmOkM%2C_&usg=AI4_-kQKtToJtQQoSUK2jn-FZaP62bVnAQ&ved=2ahUKEwiay5-qlsbfAhXJrI8KHf2BCO4Q_h0wG3oECAQQCg&biw=1920&bih=938#imgrc=_

bought near the low when spot was below 200 at one point, but price paid was less than double that

[flim]

Palladium all new high 1430 +70

[latinomanz69]

I cant buy anything now but if i could, I would go for platinum, platinum for sure has room to go up, we dont know about palladium.

[flim]

Palladium trend is continue to test new high, until it stop, then there can be a change in trend

Platinum is very weak, with oversupply ...it keep breaking the 800 mark, it went up because the buyers trying to average down, well the trend is still down

it can wait for 600 or even 400 back to 2002 price again, Platinum peak out at 2299

there would be a 5 years span of buying opportunity, I am waiting for that one

[KDave]

Buy high or buy low. Palladium or platinum. 

There is something big driving these a-historical trends for lack of a better term, it reminds me of gold to oil which historically was an excellent ratio to determine relative price. It broke when the market changed, due to shale oil I believe. The same appears to have happened with platinum group metals, there is a big picture change that is driving the prices, related to diesel and ev? Tough to guess which way either will go. If looking at platinum downside risk appears minimal, the same can't be said for palladium, but that is historically speaking so does it apply? Who knows.

[intelinside]

25 minutes ago, KDave said:

Buy high or buy low. Palladium or platinum. 

There is something big driving these a-historical trends for lack of a better term, it reminds me of gold to oil which historically was an excellent ratio to determine relative price. It broke when the market changed, due to shale oil I believe. The same appears to have happened with platinum group metals, there is a big picture change that is driving the prices, related to diesel and ev? Tough to guess which way either will go. If looking at platinum downside risk appears minimal, the same can't be said for palladium, but that is historically speaking so does it apply? Who knows.

I wanted to buy platinum coins then I saw theat they have a $100+ premium over spot for a 1 oz.  This isn't as bad for gold coins.  Why is there such a premium for platinum?

 

Anyone have recommendation to but platinum closer to spot ?

[flim]

when you see people are still buying Platinum coins, it means they are not cheap

it is best to buy when people really hated Platinum

when they start to be offered for sale at spot, that when the bargains for good value

so far no bargains yet

[KDave]

40 minutes ago, intelinside said:

I wanted to buy platinum coins then I saw theat they have a $100+ premium over spot for a 1 oz.  This isn't as bad for gold coins.  Why is there such a premium for platinum?

 

Anyone have recommendation to but platinum closer to spot ?

Nah it's about 50 a coin if we buy from euro, same as a 1oz  gold coin, but obviously higher premium on plat due to low price. And postage is higher by a few quid. Premiums on 1 oz platinum are cheaper than silver though. 

[KDave]

Can't argue with buying based on sentiment, when it turns it doesn't take long. I hope you are right and we have time. 

[vand]

6 hours ago, KDave said:

Buy high or buy low. Palladium or platinum. 

There is something big driving these a-historical trends for lack of a better term, it reminds me of gold to oil which historically was an excellent ratio to determine relative price. It broke when the market changed, due to shale oil I believe. The same appears to have happened with platinum group metals, there is a big picture change that is driving the prices, related to diesel and ev? Tough to guess which way either will go. If looking at platinum downside risk appears minimal, the same can't be said for palladium, but that is historically speaking so does it apply? Who knows.

But GOR ratio is still relevant today. Currently sitting at 23, which is well inside the historic range. Fundamental change of shale oil did not really break the long term relationship... prices meant markets readjusted to the new reality and took advantage of cheap oil, creating the necessary scarcity to drive prices back into the historic range.

Similar thing is happening with the Pt group metals, a short term fundamental shift creates the extreme price differences that will cause markets to readjust to the opportunity cost of staying with Pd. They will eventually substitute away, creating excess capacity in the Pd market and scarcity in the Pt market.

Might take a couple of years, as it did with oil, but it will happen. 

 

My own strategy is that is that I never chase prices or start buying something that I deem is already fundamentally expensive. You might catch another 10 ot 20% in Pd, but the risk far outweighs the rewards at this point

[latinomanz69]

16 hours ago, intelinside said:

I wanted to buy platinum coins then I saw theat they have a $100+ premium over spot for a 1 oz.  This isn't as bad for gold coins.  Why is there such a premium for platinum?

 

Anyone have recommendation to but platinum closer to spot ?

Dont buy with that premium, buy second hand or bars that have no name from provident metals, dont buy from apmex.

[latinomanz69]

Normally, prices are lower on Tuesdays but Wednesdays and Thursdays can be good too, so if anyone is going to buy platinum, buy it this coming Tuesday since this Friday it closed low, so most likely it will be lower next Tuesday.

[KDave]

20 hours ago, vand said:

But GOR ratio is still relevant today. Currently sitting at 23, which is well inside the historic range. Fundamental change of shale oil did not really break the long term relationship... prices meant markets readjusted to the new reality and took advantage of cheap oil, creating the necessary scarcity to drive prices back into the historic range.

Similar thing is happening with the Pt group metals, a short term fundamental shift creates the extreme price differences that will cause markets to readjust to the opportunity cost of staying with Pd. They will eventually substitute away, creating excess capacity in the Pd market and scarcity in the Pt market.

Might take a couple of years, as it did with oil, but it will happen. 

 

My own strategy is that is that I never chase prices or start buying something that I deem is already fundamentally expensive. You might catch another 10 ot 20% in Pd, but the risk far outweighs the rewards at this point

Yes you are right on GOR its relevance was only temporarily suspended due to oversupply of oil and the long term relationship is still there, but that is a fundamentally economic relationship between gold and oil, platinum does not compare to the same fundamentals. Oversupply in oil was temporary - as is the oversupply of platinum but that is only a similarity. Both of these events have a short term disruption - another similarity - in oil it was shale, in platinum it is government meddling in diesel and introduction of EV.

However, I think it is important - the difference between oil and platinum is that oil and gold are related to economic energy and platinum is an industrial catalyst - pt. is not essential to the running of the economy, nor is it essential to any other economic function in the way that gold and oil are. That is why I am slightly more sceptical as to its fast recovery, Platinum could easily go the way of silver in the 90's - with the introduction of EV and the fall in diesel use, platinum's demand fundamentals are changing and perhaps will not be the same again. Oil is fundamentally leverage, units of energy to leverage human economic output and that has not changed. Gold in turn is humanities means of storing economic energy over hundreds of years, who knows why, Greenspan didn't know what chance do I have to figure that one out, but it is as true now as it has ever been. 

But who knows there are many moving parts I can't see or predict and platinum looks cheap to me, which is why I am buying some, but only some and for the long haul.

[Oldun]

Haha, there is 9kg of physical Palladium at TOCOM....this is what happens when there has been longterm mispricing by paper and then the demand for physical overwhelms the paper market.....imagine a world of “no bid”?

You could fit 9kg in a backpack and still have room for everything else you needed to take !

[latinomanz69]

2 minutes ago, Oldun said:

Haha, there is 9kg of physical Palladium at TOCOM....this is what happens when there has been longterm mispricing by paper and then the demand for physical overwhelms the paper market.....imagine a world of “no bid”?

If the demand for physical outnumbers the paper market, then prices will skyrocket.

[Oldun]

So you know I am not blowing smoke up anyone’s you know what.

 

https://www.tocom.or.jp/market/reference/kurani_metal.html

[Oldun]

Sorry, not 9kgs.....3kgs of warehouse receipts....lol

 

If a bullion bank sold unallocated contract and is then forced to lease to supply the physical....voila......