Bear Signs

[vand]

Serious whiffage of the PPT in action last night. Not that I'm complaining.

Let's see how the next few sessions play out.

[tallyhojim]

QE by another name?

Is Peter Schiff going to be right again?
 

 

[KDave]

If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, walks like a duck - its QE 

[vand]

Fed Balance sheet:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrtK-hmWvFE

 

new highs on s&p500 before a pullback?

(the video was released before the rally this week)

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

 

3:50 best bit of common sense I've heard in ages.

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

fti

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoLQaBceRh8

 

HH

[Abyss]

Nasdaq all time high closed 9090 may see further gains to 9500 but market has gone parabolic. When Nasdaq pops going to take every other stock market in the world with it.

Seeing slight drop in the Fed balance sheet

I am significantly positioned into the the Nifty 50 but contemplating switching the majority into bonds. The risk to reward ratio to continue to have exposure to any stock market minimal IMHO.

[vand]

10 year past returns are not useful for predict the next 10 year future returns.

However the correlation with 20 year past returns predicting the next 10 years is much stronger.

And you may be rather surprised where we sit amid the current data

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-investors-fallacy/

[Abyss]

Has the Nasdaq 100 finally popped currently 120 points down

VIX showing increase in volatility

Gold up 0.5% and Silver 1.5%

This may not be the melt up in the markets but should be significant falls in the markets in the coming weeks to test lower channels of support levels.

[HawkHybrid]

On 08/04/2019 at 16:40, HawkHybrid said:

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/technical-analysis-markets-196

 

imo wave 3 that started mid 2010 is coming to an end.

best guess on s&p futures is either 2980 or 3320.

 

once it finishes there should be a move down towards ~2000

area. this is likely to take over a year to play out from the

wave 3 top.

 

HH

 

fti it looks like a pull back from 3320-3350 might

be in play soon. I've change my 4th wave prediction

(with new data) to be more likely in the range of 2820

plus or minus 200 points. current time frame for this

pull back to finish would be sometime in the 2nd

quarter this year.

(there should be an opportunity to short from 3300-3350

sometime this week. edit make that from above 3280)

 

HH

[Abyss]

For the longest time I would not believe it but matrix moment has happened since the outbreak of the corona virus

https://in.tradingview.com/markets/indices/quotes-major/

Look at how stock markets around the world reacted to global pandemic (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, FTSE 100, DAX, SMI, Nifty, HSI) all been supported by central banks around the globe either pumping liquidity in the system or directly buying into the stock markets. Unbelievable even managed to suppress the VIX index should be sky rocketing with uncertainty about the future. On the 14th January switch over my entire portfolio from equities into bonds still unbelievable keep getting bad news daily basis about corona virus and many companies cancelling corporate events and having supply chain issues but does not even phase the US markets.

[vand]

Markets setting new highs after an initial selloff was always VERY likely to happen.

As a student I market history I long ago learn that whenever there is a shock the market sells off but then rebounds HIGHER than where it was before the shock. Study the market during 9/11, or the London Terror attacks, or last month's Iran missile strikes and you will see this is true. Every time. 

I took the oppotunity to move more of cash position into equities.

Longer term view however is that equity valuations are now beginning to detach themselves from earnings growth. We may be near a final top, or we may have upside left yet, but if that is the case it will be driven by bubble like characteristics:

 

 

[vand]

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

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Added 0 minutes later...

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

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Added 0 minutes later...

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

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Added 0 minutes later...

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

---

Added 0 minutes later...

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

---

Added 0 minutes later...

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

---

Added 0 minutes later...

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

---

Added 0 minutes later...

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

[Abyss]

1 hour ago, vand said:

I would not be in too big of a hurry to short the market right now. The weak hands have been shaken out thanks to the Coronovirus selloff, and the fresh money will take a few months before it becomes stale. Higher highs are quite likely for a few months yet.

---

Excellent advice to many people have been burnt by trying to make money by shorting the stock markets because of central bank intervention. I have taken steps to protect gains in Nifty 50 made in the last four months.

[vand]

crude oil has gapped down 20%!

 

stock futures have undercut the most recent lows.

It's going to be another rollercoaster of a week.

[Bumble]

It appears that the Saudis have switched from trying to support the oil price through limiting production to the opposite strategy of raising production in order to bankrupt the shale producers. Without support, there are many marginal oil producers that will not cope with sub $30 oil. Some may have hedged their output, but that won't last for long.

On the upside, cheap oil is good for other industries, including mining.

[motorbikez]

I have been waiting for the markets to crack for the last 5 years, coronavirus started the fall now the Saudis & Russia are in a spat over oil prices which have led to a 30% fall in oil prices. London markets & European markets in freefall.

It will be very interesting to see where wall street is on opening this afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% plus drop at the bell.

 

[Oldun]

PPT will be evaluating whether it is worth letting the market sort itself out (which is the correct thing to do in order to correct the madness of the last year or so) or intervene to stem the flow. Maybe some brave ‘think it is the bottom” buyers at these levels......basically, everyone is shitting themselves, no matter what they decide to do.

[sovereignsteve]

Seems the Chicago Board of Trade have suspended trading in the DOW, maybe it'll be back on line by the session opening this afternoon?

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, Oldun said:

PPT will be evaluating whether it is worth letting the market sort itself out (which is the correct thing to do in order to correct the madness of the last year or so) or intervene to stem the flow. Maybe some brave ‘think it is the bottom” buyers at these levels......basically, everyone is shitting themselves, no matter what they decide to do.

 

I would not be calling a bottom until at least the 150

point fall implied by the vix futures spike last night

have made it into the numbers of the s&p 500. ie the

s&5 500 should be trading around 2680.

 

HH

[Oldun]

That is you. The PPT have other things on their mind.

[goldking]

Robinhood down again LMAO!  Who saw that coming?  o/   The millennials will be raging.

[Abyss]

5 hours ago, goldking said:

Who saw that coming?

Look at my posts above on this thread I did see a top in the markets forming but no way I could seen the global sell we experiencing right now. Always good to take a global view don't just think terms of isolation what the UK/US markets doing. Look at historical charts of Niffy50 and HSI they hit peak price 14th January and the US markets still continued to climb for several weeks afterwards. I was scratching my head thinking have I made the right call to switch my entire portfolio from stocks into bonds but I started to following Chris Martenson's on Peak Prosperity YouTube channel and he called it on the 27th January time to prepare. After that date I knew I had made the right call and all doubt was gone.

[goldking]

6 hours ago, Abyss said:

Look at my posts above on this thread I did see a top in the markets forming but no way I could seen the global sell we experiencing right now. Always good to take a global view don't just think terms of isolation what the UK/US markets doing. Look at historical charts of Niffy50 and HSI they hit peak price 14th January and the US markets still continued to climb for several weeks afterwards. I was scratching my head thinking have I made the right call to switch my entire portfolio from stocks into bonds but I started to following Chris Martenson's on Peak Prosperity YouTube channel and he called it on the 27th January time to prepare. After that date I knew I had made the right call and all doubt was gone.

I wasn't referring to the market, I was referring to Robinhood.