Bear Signs

[vand]

Buffett has taken the unusual step to use cash to buy back his own stock - something he has in the past been critical of other companies doing - because he can't find anything worth buying. In the past he was always confident that he could find a better use for the cash than buying back shares.

Berkshire still a net seller of equities in the last quarter:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-04/berkshire-buys-back-more-stock-as-cash-pile-continues-to-grow

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4258410-buybacks-best-option-berkshire-choice-buffett-faces-resembles-mine

[Avrocarr]

"The stock market climbs a wall of worry"

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/investing-success/time-in-the-markets

Get your asset allocation right (PM, Stocks, Cash, fixed interest) and sit back and relax. What's the point in trying to guess the future? I've tried and my crystal ball has been proven to be faulty...

[vand]

8 hours ago, Avrocarr said:

"The stock market climbs a wall of worry"

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/investing-success/time-in-the-markets

Get your asset allocation right (PM, Stocks, Cash, fixed interest) and sit back and relax. What's the point in trying to guess the future? I've tried and my crystal ball has been proven to be faulty...

I agree.

The issue I see is that most people think have no idea what a sensible asset allocation strategy is. From a Modern Portfolio Theory point of view, most people are holding far too much equities for the current expected future return, given how volatile they are as an asset class. 

[Avrocarr]

12 minutes ago, vand said:

I agree.

The issue I see is that most people think have no idea what a sensible asset allocation strategy is. From a Modern Portfolio Theory point of view, most people are holding far too much equities for the current expected future return, given how volatile they are as an asset class. 

you're quite possibly right, memories of 2008 have grown quite faint!

[vand]

Significant ructions today.

Dow gapped down 2% and falling.

BTC gone vertical (again)!

PMs hanging in there...

 

[Guest]

The canary in the financial coal mine:

Deutsche Bank Shares Hit All-Time Low After UBS Cuts Rating To Sell

I've been watching Deutsche Bank closely for the last couple of years, I believe they will trigger the next crisis.

Tick Tock...

[gustavus]

On 20/05/2019 at 14:56, RichRock said:

The canary in the financial coal mine:

Deutsche Bank Shares Hit All-Time Low After UBS Cuts Rating To Sell

I've been watching Deutsche Bank closely for the last couple of years, I believe they will trigger the next crisis.

Tick Tock...

My bet is they merge it before next downfall. To hide and save what can be saved.

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1q5PdYOsmc

 

worth  a watch

 

HH

[Guest]

On 20/05/2019 at 12:56, RichRock said:

The canary in the financial coal mine:

Deutsche Bank Shares Hit All-Time Low After UBS Cuts Rating To Sell

I've been watching Deutsche Bank closely for the last couple of years, I believe they will trigger the next crisis.

Tick Tock...

 

On 23/05/2019 at 20:43, gustavus said:

My bet is they merge it before next downfall. To hide and save what can be saved.

 

Duetschebank has dropped another 9% since my post 10 days ago, currently 6.06 Eur.

If the price continues like this we could see 5.70 fairly soon, a drop below 5.70 (UBS's price target) will see it tank fast. Certainly does have a feel of the old Lehman Bro's about it.

If Lehman's was a speed bump, Duetschebank is an avalanche, earthquake and meteor strike all in one with their $40 Trillion derivates book.

 

[Pipers]

On 31/05/2019 at 13:16, RichRock said:

 

 

Duetschebank has dropped another 9% since my post 10 days ago, currently 6.06 Eur.

If the price continues like this we could see 5.70 fairly soon, a drop below 5.70 (UBS's price target) will see it tank fast. Certainly does have a feel of the old Lehman Bro's about it.

If Lehman's was a speed bump, Duetschebank is an avalanche, earthquake and meteor strike all in one with their $40 Trillion derivates book.

 

So what is your view /guess, at what price will the markets start to panic?  Also what price will the German Government step in.  

For my pennies worth I truly believe the Euro will be devalued to support the Germans.     

[Bumble]

My guess is that the German government will step in to save DBK with some kind of deal. Also, if the US stock market continues to fall, the Fed will drop interest rates. The bears have come out to play, and this should be good for bonds and for gold.

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Usn-8ESfZCc

 

interesting analysis that says we haven't gone bear yet.

 

HH

[Guest]

On 01/06/2019 at 16:52, Pipers said:

So what is your view /guess, at what price will the markets start to panic?  Also what price will the German Government step in.  

For my pennies worth I truly believe the Euro will be devalued to support the Germans.     

 

I believe there is a little panic starting already. DBK just dropped another 3-4% this morning to current 5.80 EUR session low. Gold has spiked to £1044/oz, $1317/oz. German government may have already begun to step in at this point, if so we will see a good rebound from this 5.80-5.50 area. I am watching the 5.70-5.50 level for failure. I hope the Eur does get devalued to support the Germans, my exchange rate for GBP/EUR's for my upcoming holiday is pants ATM .

On 01/06/2019 at 17:07, Bumble said:

My guess is that the German government will step in to save DBK with some kind of deal. Also, if the US stock market continues to fall, the Fed will drop interest rates. The bears have come out to play, and this should be good for bonds and for gold.

 

I'll guess there are plenty of phone calls and emails between DBk and German Gov flying around behind the scenes today. Probably going to be a merger with another toxic bank at some point. As you predicted, gold has had a nice little spike.

[vand]

Interesting.

Gold stocks up + oil stocks down has historically preceeded wider market crashes:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buckle-up-when-oil-and-gold-trade-like-this-it-usually-spells-doom-for-the-market-2019-06-04

[HawkHybrid]

'weeks when gold & silver stocks rallied at least 5.2%

and oil declined by at least 8.7%'

 

look at those precise percentages. looks like more

cherry picking of data to me.

(don't even have the integrity of typing out the

data for ease of quoting them.)

 

there is still a very good chance of the s&p 500 making

a new high before the actual decline.

 

HH

[vand]

3 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

'weeks when gold & silver stocks rallied at least 5.2%

and oil declined by at least 8.7%'

 

look at those precise percentages. looks like more

cherry picking of data to me.

(don't even have the integrity of typing out the

data for ease of quoting them.)

 

there is still a very good chance of the s&p 500 making

a new high before the actual decline.

 

HH

 

Probably true about the cherry picking, but not necessarily irrelevant.

It continues today.. crude down, gold up

IMO the chances for the blowoff top you are looking for is fading as we move into the long summer months.

 

[Pipers]

8 minutes ago, vand said:

 

Probably true about the cherry picking, but not necessarily irrelevant.

It continues today.. crude down, gold up

IMO the chances for the blowoff top you are looking for is fading as we move into the long summer months.

 

 Its usual for Gold to slide in the summer months though i cannot see it this year. Gold has not gone above the $1350 target yet.  Do you think this may be a short squeeze?  

Also are the banks calling in loans yet? 

  

[vand]

@Pipers There could be some truth in there being a short squeeze, but tbh I wouldn't worry about it. There are always shorters in the market, just as there are those trading the long side. 

 

Another factor to consider is that it seems by all intents and purposes the Fed's tightening is done, and the next move will be down. Historically markets have peaked on these changes in direction.

[HawkHybrid]

25 minutes ago, vand said:

 

Probably true about the cherry picking, but not necessarily irrelevant.

It continues today.. crude down, gold up

IMO the chances for the blowoff top you are looking for is fading as we move into the long summer months.

 

 

s&p 500 only just bounced off 2730 for ~2% daily gain.

I wouldn't call that signs of fading chances of a new

high. imo there's still everything to play for.

also what happen to the s&p 500 over the long summer

months of 2018? and that lead to the drop in the winter

months of 2018. not so farfetched for this year to rhyme?

 

HH

[vand]

The 10/2 yr inversion is now a thing.

this party is OVER.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield-curve-invert-stock-market-impact-124634356.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABZSAukzKDGyY5yZ54KnAChr9-ecU1LtT_Nb8AK3UbD8rErxDMmQrjOFNYsnLqPLtJr4N_4kdebHRru2s0pBuY1vkw0aVz7PsluSXHZVNMxYrg7d6VbetDbnKfQ_LK4BYLC_UGxerk4eFxJIDHSDbUCmwprbib73fQmMHS4QE4bB

[5huggy]

contango rains everywhere!

[vand]

Its been a spooky start to the final quarter of the decade.

FTSE had its worst selloff in over 3 years yesterday.

 

[KDave]

Will central banks act fast enough to offset the extent of the crash - and either way as we can guarantee they will act sooner or later - how much will they print, I think incrementally more than last time. Short brutal crash/depression to play out followed by cb caused inflation and interest rates near double digits by mid 2020's. All this started in 2009 when they bought time and bailed this broken system out. 

[KDave]

This is all liquidity driven;

https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/thought-leadership/quarterly-outlook

 

[vand]

375 FTSE points lost in the last 3 sessions.

Ouch..