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Gold Bubble ?


scubajunky

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14 minutes ago, MrGeorge said:

I am not so sure about pms anymore to be honest still going to hold onto what i got and not that far away from 50oz, as soon as i hit that i dont feel comfortable putting anymore money into gold, except to finish the queens beats collection. Think theres better options out there for investment.

Is that not the whole point, to a degree? Build up what you are comfortable with then stash it away and forget about it until the time it is needed? 

To me it isn’t an investment, I am not expecting it to shoot to the moon and if it does there are probably a bunch of other problems to deal with (see Venezuela). However I sleep better knowing it is there providing me some security should that day come. 

For me, it provides an excellent way to save whilst still getting the little buzz you get from buying something new. 

Is gold in a bubble? Who knows for certain. I don’t think so but I may very well be wrong. If I am, oh well, I will still have my precious!

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Gold and silver are wealth preservation tools with the remote chance of break out investment returns. 

The charts look like gold is in a bubble, but it does not really account for the fact that in 1990 $400 would probably have bought you the same amount as $1200 today. 

Visit my website for all my Hand Poured Silver: http://backyardbullion.com

And check out my YouTube channel 

https://www.youtube.com/backyardbullion

 

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Here is an example using this website: https://www.measuringworth.com

@scubajunky @MrGeorge

in 1980 1 oz of gold bought for £250

£250 in 1980 had a buying power between £859 - £1960 (depending on how you measure it).

But the simple calculator number says just over £1000

So if you bought your gold in 1980 on paper you have made £700 profit, but really in buying power terms you have made maybe £100 profit. 

The longer you hold the better it gets for preservation of wealth. 

939892851_WealthPreservation.jpg.6b14ed72a5af4e244736aca31ec4bedf.jpg

Visit my website for all my Hand Poured Silver: http://backyardbullion.com

And check out my YouTube channel 

https://www.youtube.com/backyardbullion

 

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4 hours ago, BackyardBullion said:

Gold and silver are wealth preservation tools with the remote chance of break out investment returns. 

The charts look like gold is in a bubble, but it does not really account for the fact that in 1990 $400 would probably have bought you the same amount as $1200 today. 

How about comparing it to price of loaf of bread. 1990 is £0.50, today £1.07 = 114% increase, according to this chart I found:

https://www.pricesfromthepast.com/6/bread-loaf

gold 1990 £241 today £935 = 288% increase.

a 114% increase would be £515.

Who knows non of this accounts for supply or demand.

 

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17 minutes ago, RoughDog said:

How about comparing it to price of loaf of bread. 1990 is £0.50, today £1.07 = 114% increase, according to this chart I found:

https://www.pricesfromthepast.com/6/bread-loaf

gold 1990 £241 today £935 = 288% increase.

a 114% increase would be £515.

Who knows non of this accounts for supply or demand.

 

Is loaf of bread and loaf of bread most bread is frozen and put in oven by supermarket so I don't really call it loaf of bread. £1.67 decent frozen bread then numbers look different.

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I think nobody knows. 

Economists are hopeless at forecasting, Banks are just as bad. 

I read much about gold being replaced by Crypto currencies but don’t buy that for a number of reasons.

PMs are a good way to spread risk for me. I worry more about a stock market crash than a gold crash. 

Not my circus, not my monkeys

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Gold goes up. Gold goes down. Which way is 50/50. There is no middle ground. How much of a swing? if i knew, i would have someone else type this for me while i casually stroll the world.

 

From my own analysis (without my tech graphs to hand) each major economic downturn has pushed gold to new highs, but its resistance level never returned to the per-downturn norms. i dont believe this cycle is any different. It is now trading at and around its stable rate. Up / Down- yes of course. But i dont see this as a bubble at all.

Also, global investments in stocks are the boom market currently. i myself have been making some money there since post-2008 quite easily. the market is that strong that the wrong picks are still making money (this is the worrying part!).

i cant see that continuing much longer. which is why i have now diversified into physical gold for the first time. At the next crisis, whether thats tomorrow or many years, gold is 'expected' to be the go-to investment as it historically has been.
 

Investors in times of uncertainty, want as much of a guarantee  as possible that their investment is certain. For this reason, i cant see gold being anything other than the go-to again next time around. crypto currency (in its current state) is not ready to be the safe haven for a crashing stock market.  IMO.

 

 

But, regardless of a bubble or not - Gold Does Not Do Anything. its just a hulk of metal. Buying it to make money (again my opinion) is false economy. Buy it because if anything goes wrong in the economy, then its your degree of certainty that you havent lost everything. and if it goes well, then it 'may' have also increased in value in currency terms to help recover some losses elsewhere (ie, stock market).

 

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1 hour ago, HelpingHands said:

Those with a nervous disposition look away now............

 

 

 

 

he's not making any sense.

the dec 2015 low must be first wave ending 'a' because you can't

end a wave 'c' with a 1,2,3,4,5. then he's goes on to say that the

end to the 'c' at ~$672 will end after the 1,2,3,4,5.

I'm open to the possibility of gold going lower.

I'm not convinced it'll play out the way he thinks it will.

 

HH

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If gold is in a bubble, silver is all but dead then! I don't think gold is in a bubble, people aren't being maniacal about it like they were silver, or Bitcoin more recently.

Here is a textbook bubble chart:

bubble-phases.jpg

Bitcoin and silver kind of followed those patterns during their respective bubbles, but gold has been too slow a burn to be in a bubble IMO

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On 03/09/2018 at 12:47, Shinus73 said:

This for me also.

And me! Gold isn’t really an investment. You should ideally already have investments that are giving you a healthy yield. I dont think gold is in a bubble.

its swings and roundabouts. Just gotta hope your not on the slide!

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The thing with Harry Dent is he can self promote and sell his own wares!  $700-$760 Gold is a big head line,  it may well get to $800-$850 though no one will get on at that price believe me I know.  Anything around/ under $1000 is a very big buy do not believe the hype remember what it costs to get out of the ground and bring to the buyers, not the cheapest either.  Also most of us do not live the the USA and cannot rely on Dollars backed by the US military.   

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https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold’s-long-term-trend

imo this is a better analysis using elliott wave.

 

my understanding is elliott wave is a probability analysis of

what might happen. it's not a sure bet. if it's 80% versus 20%

then 1 in 5 times the higher probability outcome will be

wrong(on average). it's about markets moving broadly in 5

waves following the dominant trend and 3 waves retracing

the dominant move(a breather). the exact plotting of the

individual waves gets complicated very quickly.

 

HH

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