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mr-dead

A shift in public sentiment

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:D 

i feel like im a trigger for this post.

 

I am not a financial expert, but as with yourselves and buying gold, you will know there are dozens of criteria you look at in order to judge a purchase (condition, purity, age, etc). Well from what i do in stocks, i look at a companies, regional and globalfinancial data and indicators. I generally focus around oil and gas, tech and biotech companies. but there has been a huge swing (overpricing) or stocks in the last year across the market that while it looks good in everyones account, doesnt add up on paper. Then the more i looked a bit deeper the more alarms i seemed to find.

i wont type out all the research ive done, because thats 1)boring, 2) its ultimately still just my opinion gathered from seperate facts.

 

but if your interested, take a look at:

1 - the early indicators for a recession

2- the current unemployment rate

3 - the current consumer debt

4 - the current royal/federal bank debts

5 - the huge price-to-earnings inflation of all US stocks

6 - china-US trade war implications

7 - brexit uncertainty

8 - italian looming bailout

9 - expiring goverment bonds (bonds possibly the biggest firework, if it goes off).

10 - near zero base interest rate

11 - Londons falling house prices

 

ah theres loads. its quite scary.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Martlet said:

I think nervousness stalks the equity markets.  They have been buoyant for a long time and people expect a drop, however there is no substantial negative news. 

Agree with the news part - recession is driven by media. if the media doesnt report a recession, who would know? when the news reports a recession, people stop spending. its self fulling.

 

i think the only thing that hasnt yet triggered one is that noone from a major paper / news source and put anything to print yet.

IMO.

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Great post and list pritchard, but I have seen most of those issues for literally years now, and worse that have come and gone, and nothing has come of it - It's always scary if you go looking for it. Part of me is expecting lower metals prices later in the year. The permabear in me is still holding tight for that inevitable collapse, the black swan, the great wealth transfer, but it's a forlorn hope. 

Perhaps permabear apathy is a better indicator of incoming turmoil? :P

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15 hours ago, mr-dead said:

Despite the current ongoing precious metals price smack downs I have never been more convinced I made the correct call buying into silver and gold for the mid to long term.

If looking to preserve wealth it's good long term, above that I'm not convinced our timing for big returns is right yet, there is still a good bear case for further decline and years of going sideways, potentially decades if history rhymes. There's also plenty of bull cases too, what has convinced you so much? 

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The way i sold this to the missus was with the following;

'if im right, and the market crashes, we have some guaranteed wealth.
if i'm wrong, and the market rallies, then the worst that has happened is that its taken me a little longer to make a little extra'


 

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In my mind gold is money off the table. Capital in hand. You lose nothing by holding it over a long enough time frame, unlike other assets and currency that can go to nothing. Gold to the moon happens on occasion, but not to the extent of other higher risk assets, and over long time frames purchasing power is preserved, unlike higher risk assets.

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I am baffled by the gold price.

We are told that countries like Russia, China and Turkey are busily buying up physical gold.  There is talk of the development of a gold-backed world currency.  Some large investors are putting serious money into gold.  Yet, if you look at the gold price today, it appears that no one wants it!

I know there is a large disparity between “paper” gold and physical gold – there is nowhere near enough physical gold to back all the “paper” gold which the whiz kids in the City buy and sell, but this activity in the “paper” gold market appears to be overshadowing / dominating activity in relation to physical gold.  The kids in the City can make money whether the price of gold is going up or down – stackers can only make money when the price goes up (and they sell).

I would have thought that the increased interest in physical gold, and the questionable economic outlook (trade war, record high borrowings, increasing interest rates, housing bubbles, Brexit, etc.) would have made gold quite attractive, but this does not seem to be the case – yet!

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We are told many things and many things are talked about.  The market is usually the aggregator of all information available.  So either the market price is irrational and wrong, or those things we are told and talked about are.

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Gold is not doing what we think it should, because at the moment, the largest portion of the market (people) disagrees with our position/opinion/expectations, and they just don't want gold right now. Who knows when this will change. 

I know people who hold the position that "central banks fixed it last time they will do so again". They see interest rates rising and think gold will be a bad bet. It doesn't matter that I think otherwise or my reasons for buying, the market moves with the majority.

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"In 2017, investment in Silver ( physical bar, coin purchase and ETF) fell by 40%. In value terms, annual identifiable investment was worth $2.6 billion for the whole year.

In the first 6 months of 2018,  investments just in silver physical bars jumped to 27.3 billions Dollar. In such a small market, it is an explosive information."

https://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/french-analyst-someone-is-cornering-the-silver-market-to-cause-a-silver-shortage/

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8 hours ago, Zhorro said:

if you look at the gold price today, it appears that no one wants it!

Then buy gold and keep buying it. The best time to buy is when no-one wants it. Did you ever think the price is maneuvered down so some entities could buy it on the cheap? When the likes of Goldman Sachs say sell, behind the scenes they are buying.

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As a share dealer myself, i ride the bull (or bear) markets. Going against what the market is doing is always a loss. Even with all the best technical analysis charts and reversal pattens, you can easilly be caught with a faux reversal as the market continues to 'surprise'.

 I dont intend to release any specific positions i have based on my worry of the market. i will sell when the market begins to crash, not when i think its at its peak. Ok, i wont sell at max return, but a return indeed. The PM for me is to be an insurance of a financial crash with enough clout that i cannot react quick enough to liquidate my funds and/or buy bullion.

 

will be interesting to see what happens over the next few years. specifically, the next 6 months.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, sixgun said:

Then buy gold and keep buying it. The best time to buy is when no-one wants it. Did you ever think the price is maneuvered down so some entities could buy it on the cheap? When the likes of Goldman Sachs say sell, behind the scenes they are buying.

this ^^^

Buy when the market is in fear. Sell when the market becomes greedy.

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All the bullion sales numbers suggest that interest in PMs is at a decade low.

PMs are way out of fashion right now.. and that is a good thing. I'm personally going to be increasing my monthly purchases over the next 3-4 months, so happy that the price is currently so low. You can do all the technical and fundamental analysis under the sun and the price will go and do its own thing, so I will just continue to accumulate and trust in my 30-year plan.

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The stock market is very expensive mainly because companies can't find anything better to do with their cash than buy back their own stock. This ponzi-esque behaviour guarantees a very bad ending for this bull market when the next recession/crisis hits... their stocks will be overvalued and they'll have used up most of their cash buying at these crazy prices.

 

Edited by vand

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46 minutes ago, Auricsstash said:

This market has been greedy for years, the ftse 100 is chock full of bombed out wrecks who are making very little money and taking on huge amounts of debt.

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10039730

 

 

Agreed.

I like star caps table format:

https://www.starcapital.de/en/footernavigation/disclaimer/?redirect_url=%2Fen%2Fresearch%2Fstock-market-valuation%2F

 

22 minutes ago, vand said:

The stock market is very expensive mainly because companies can't find anything better to do with their cash than buy back their own stock. This ponzi-esque behaviour guarantees a very bad ending for this bull market when the next recession/crisis hits... their stocks will be overvalued and they'll have used up most of their cash buying at these crazy prices.

 

Agreed

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On 30/07/2018 at 11:19, mr-dead said:

Anyone else notice there seems to be an increase in new members joining the forum inquiring about gold/silver purchases.

A few seem to have previous investment knowledge and are concerned about a potential crash.

 

Early indicator of a public sentiment shift towards PM's?

I have definitely noticed this phenomenon.

 

Quite a few new members are also quoting finding the forum via youtube videos (mine included).

Seems as though more and more people are watching PM videos on youtube. My subscriber count has been increasing steadily and Im surprised how much growth Im getting. Im watching other members channels and everyone is going up right now, nobody is losing subs.

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not that i am going to upload every news article being released (on an almost daily basis on major finanical sites).

however, Warren buffet is in my eyes still the benchmark man to pay attention to.... and this just got reported today.

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2018/8/8/why-warren-buffetts-record-breaking-cash-stockpile-should-have-investors-very-worried

 

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Warren Buffet is a preferential shareholder he can be misleading sometimes, the shares he buys is different to the shares normall people buy.

 

Still a top guy and I take nothing away from him, 

Edited by Tn21

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On 01/08/2018 at 14:42, StackerNoob said:

I have definitely noticed this phenomenon.

Quite a few new members are also quoting finding the forum via youtube videos (mine included).

Seems as though more and more people are watching PM videos on youtube. My subscriber count has been increasing steadily and Im surprised how much growth Im getting. Im watching other members channels and everyone is going up right now, nobody is losing subs.

i came here b/c i started watching Numistacker videos. i was already interested in metals so i might have ended up here anyway but clearly those of us who put the effort in to make videos are recruiting new members.

Daily i see the financial media calling gold lower or asking how much lower can it get. That sentiment is in the tank. i genuinely think this will be the last time we will see prices like this. Too many factors are coming together. All time highs in the indices, Buffet all in cash, trade wars, the Eastern powers buying metals like no tomorrow clearly with an eye to backing currency and then the emergence of precious metal asset backed cryptocurrencies.

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