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Investack

Silver Premiums Seasonal?

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Great discussion from the last post with a mild debate erupting on technical vs fundamental analysis.  Personally, I believe both are legitimate and required as I like to acquire as much information as possible with the goal of putting investment odds in my favor.   Got curious as to whether there’s been any seasonality to bullion premiums vs silver spot prices. To model this, I took 1 oz American Eagles minus silver spot (in dollars) and looked at it through the lens below.  To help explain, vertically you have years and horizontally you have months.   This analysis goes back nearly 15 years and each cell shows the % change in the premium vs the previous month.   How to interpret?  Over the last ~15 years, in the month of February, premiums have shrunk 11 of the 15 observations.   Conversely, in March, premiums on ASE’s have expanded in 11 of the 15 observations.   You get the idea.  

My question:  Do you see seasonality here?  Momentum?  Mean reversion?  Would love to hear your views.  

 

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I'm really new to the whole silver thing but this is an interesting topic.

Could the drop around february be because it's the end of the Christman / New Year period and the beginning of the asian lunar festivals and holidays?

I have no idea if this sounds stupid or not but it's the first thing that came to mind.

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