End Game

[Silverhawk]

Hello. We see a lot out there about the importance of acquiring precious metals but exit planning talk is rare in comparison. Some are predicting 5k and even 10k gold. My question is where to sell at that price? Mom and Pop coin shops don't have that kind of dough. Will Apmex then buy collections at 5k-10k oz? Have we all kept our receipts to protect our capital gains?

Also since gold and silver price seems manipulated, is this talk of skyrocketing metal price all BS hype put out by Gold/Silver companies to sell more coins? I've been noticing that the ones who keep talking about it are people like Peter Schiff and Lynette Zang etc who sell metals for a living. I am old enough to remember only twice where a significant spikes occurred. In1980 gold went to $800 and 2011 it went to $1800. So unless we have a truckload, all the time acquiring and storing etc isn't all that profitable compared to other investments. And I understand that many gold/silver guys do it as a hedge or as a way to protect their wealth but most guys I know do it dreaming of a Bitcoin type run that may never happen.  Maybe Buffet is right.

[Agpanda]

Hi and welcome to the forum

I dont realy belive in a run for neither gold or silver

There will most likely be a nice raise in the future

But I agree with you in that are many investment that will go up more

Dont forget that probably price and salary will rice aswell

But as long as there is sellers, there is buyers

Looking forward to see more interesting posts from you in the future

[FlorinCollector]

I am just slowly accumulating so when I retire one day I can then slowly release back what I have accumulated and either break even or slightly gain. I am not the best at saving in cash and I don't see everything going parabolic. But we can all hope can't we :) 

[MancunianStacker]

I think there will be a price correction and I’m saving in gold for the next 27 years until retirement too so I have more of a chance of seeing this correction than those in it only for the short term. 

[HawkHybrid]

in terms of purchasing power, bullion metals are unlikely to rise

significantly. big rises are due to inflation changing the figures.

eg when zimbabwe went hyperinflation, metals went through the

roof(zimbabwe dollars). in the real world the purchasing power

metals didn't change much, it's the zimbabwe dollar that moved

a lot. it may be better to see metals as a way of saving a reliable

access to a store of value that you can use at suitable times, eg

when needed or for an opportunistic purchase of undervalued

assets.

 

HH

[Tn21]

I wouldn't pay attention to what Buffet says, but I most certainly would pay attention to what he does. 

I missed the boat on Bitcoin and instead opted for the PMs for the time being. What attracted me is the possible upside but also the fact it is tangible. I used  to blow my paycheques on stupidness, but now I allocate a % on PMs which is just another form of long term saving in my strategy. 

Selling PMs will be on my radar at some point but if the time never comes in my lifetime it will go to my Family. 

[sixgun]

Gold has been consolidating in price for the last 5 years. i think a lot of people have been lulled into complacency by this and do not or dare not imagine price will do anything much in the coming years. i listened to the last video Andrew Maguire did on Kinesis. He was saying that the demand for physical gold was low 10 years ago. i remember back in 2000 when gold was completely unloved. Buying gold them would have been a great investment. If we look at today's compared with 1999 the price has gone up 5 fold. So price does take off and we have seen 100's of percent increases.

If Kinesis takes off you will be able to deposit physical into the ABX vaulting system and get Kinesis currency. i would only do this with very basic bullion but you will be able to do this whatever the price of gold and then spend the Kinesis currency through a Kinesis Visa card. So no need to worry about gold going up too much and no-one being able to afford it. This is something to dream about not dread.

[BoredGit]

To be completely honest, I'm 50/50 if its going to up that high. On one hand I think it will stick with inflation. But then again, the accessible gold reserves are projected to run out by 2030 - 2035, so I think at that point it might go up quite a way above inflation.

I might be completely daft, but I can dream cant I!?

[SILVERFINGER]

21 minutes ago, BoredGit said:

To be completely honest, I'm 50/50 if its going to up that high. On one hand I think it will stick with inflation. But then again, the accessible gold reserves are projected to run out by 2030 - 2035, so I think at that point it might go up quite a way above inflation.

I might be completely daft, but I can dream cant I!?

I reckon the same will happen with silver, we can but hope.

[HawkHybrid]

2 hours ago, BoredGit said:

To be completely honest, I'm 50/50 if its going to up that high. On one hand I think it will stick with inflation. But then again, the accessible gold reserves are projected to run out by 2030 - 2035, so I think at that point it might go up quite a way above inflation.

I might be completely daft, but I can dream cant I!?

 

current gold reserves could run out by 2035 but gold resources

will last much longer than that.

 

HH

[BoredGit]

9 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

current gold reserves could run out by 2035 but gold resources

will last much longer than that.

 

HH

I agree. I think there will be a bump in price lasting a couple of years, then another 10-15 years later. I'm not a dooms day person. I'm not thinking its going to go mad, I'm just hoping that it will. But any increase over the next 30-50 years is good for me!

[BoredGit]

11 hours ago, SILVERFINGER said:

I reckon the same will happen with silver, we can but hope.

Honestly, I don't think that would ever be 'aloud'. Something is needed to judge gold against. Also because it's needed in so much technology and industry, it might go up, but not above inflation.

[HawkHybrid]

2 hours ago, BoredGit said:

I agree. I think there will be a bump in price lasting a couple of years, then another 10-15 years later. I'm not a dooms day person. I'm not thinking its going to go mad, I'm just hoping that it will. But any increase over the next 30-50 years is good for me!

 

the point I was trying to make is that they are sneaky about

how they present data. current gold reserves is the explored

part of mining that is prepared and is waiting to be mined.

this for most companies won't represent more than 10-20

years of strategic production. by definition these reserves

will run out in 20 years time if no more resources are

converted to reserves for the whole of the next 20 years.

this is a flawed model as there are much more resources of

gold under ground and are constantly being converted to

reserves each year by realistic mining companies that don't

plan to go out of business any time soon.

think of it like a baker only stocking a limited amount of

flour for production. only biased people will claim that

that would mean bread is going to run out soon due to

limited flour.

 

HH

[BoredGit]

3 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

the point I was trying to make is that they are sneaky about

how they present data. current gold reserves is the explored

part of mining that is prepared and is waiting to be mined.

this for most companies won't represent more than 10-20

years of strategic production. by definition these reserves

will run out in 20 years time if no more resources are

converted to reserves for the whole of the next 20 years.

this is a flawed model as there are much more resources of

gold under ground and are constantly being converted to

reserves each year by realistic mining companies that don't

plan to go out of business any time soon.

think of it like a baker only stocking a limited amount of

flour for production. only biased people will claim that

that would mean bread is going to run out soon due to

limited flour.

 

HH

I think I understand where you are going with this, but as there is only between 0.001 & 0.004 parts per million of gold in the earths crust and over 3/4 of that has already been mined/extracted/retrieved and the mining companies have stepped up their mining over the past 10 years, I do believe it will get to a point where gold mining companies will close. There have already been quite a few close in north America in the past 2 years. It's just to expensive to retrieve and refine the gold. 

I'm sure there will still be small operations running, but I think most of the large ones will go (or divulge in to something else). Comparing it to flower doesn't really work and plant can be re-grown where as the element gold cant be re made.

[HawkHybrid]

http://www.randgoldresources.com/reserves-and-resources

let's take randgold resources as an example.

it's proven and probable attributable total gold reserves for

2017 is 14 million ounces. randgolds turnover is ~£1Bn.

making it's production ~ 1 million ounces per year. at this

rate is has 14 years of current production left. notice that

2016 total gold reserves is also 14 million ounces. shouldn't

that figure be 15 million ounces if we were running out of

gold reserves to mine?

I've read articles which show the grade (grams/tonne) of

mined gold is dropping as the best spots gets used up.

this however is for new sources of mining. there could

well be over a decade before any of these new sources

of mining show up to push the price of gold higher.

also ever changing technology(a decade is a long time

for technological improvements) would if successful

bring improvements to making it cheaper and more

efficient to mine. imo these medium term theories should

be weighted accordingly.

 

HH