The price of silver

[sovereignsteve]

4 hours ago, Mildred said:

Steve, you didn't answered my questions because yes would contradict your statement, no would be absurd, but you are over 6,000, I'm 12, I respect that 

yes i accept your definition of money and also Maloney's. BTW Isn't he one of those youtube "silver going to da moon" pundits?

On 19/03/2018 at 14:00, sixgun said:

Silver is traded on the currency markets - if it weren't a currency it would not be  traded there.

what do you mean by currency markets? Trading platforms, exchanges, currency traders at their desks?

 

Anyway, enough of me trying to wind up you silver fans.

The question you need to ask yourself is; does the world need silver as a store of value/money?

Thousands of years ago (and hundreds) it was pretty simple. They needed money, a form of exchange and store of value, and gold and silver fitted the bill pretty well.
Precious metals were difficult to get hold of, nice and shiny, fairly inert etc. Their relative value was easy to determine as well; simply their relative scarcity and that gave us the much quoted GSR of 16 or so.
They weren’t used for anything else other than jewellery and fancy flatware/ornaments, but that was just an extension of their PM status.
While ever they were simply circulating money, life was simple, everyone knew where they stood.

Fast forward to today.
Neither metal is used as currency but gold is still regarded as the ultimate store of value. It is the rarest, most inert and it’s a distinctive, pretty colour. Its status is so ingrained in everyone’s psyche it’s difficult to see that changing anytime soon.

However, what about silver?
It’s not needed as currency. It’s still regarded as “money”, but for how long?
It’s not really needed as a store of value, gold does that pretty well on its own.
The general population couldn’t care less about it; in fact 99.99% don’t have a clue what its value is.
How can something be useful as money if very few people actually regard it as such and know its value?
It’s clear to me that its status as a store of value is on the decline. To continue to be it needs everyone to accept it as such. There’s no point having loads of it if very few people want to buy it off you when you want to sell.

It is mainly produced as a bi product of other metal mining so there will always be enough to satisfy industrial demand. If not, the price will go up and if it rises too much, they will try to find alternatives.

[Lowlow]

38 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

The question you need to ask yourself is; does the world need silver as a store of value/money?

There are two questions you need to ask yourself.

(1) Silver coins were minted in numerous ancient civilizations including Egypt, Greece, Rome, etc, ... disregarding their historical value, what are those coins worth today ?

(2) Thousands of paper currencies have been printed since ancient times ... disregarding their historical value, what are those paper currencies worth today ?

Nothing else really needs to be said.

[Pampfan]

The reality of owning gold and silver is that we are all holding something where the value and price is determined by someone else. The GSR is what it is, accept it, and pick your side, and see what happens.

 

[Lowlow]

45 minutes ago, Pampfan said:

The reality of owning gold and silver is that we are all holding something where the value and price is determined by someone else. The GSR is what it is, accept it, and pick your side, and see what happens.

 

One of my favorite old sayings ... you pays your money and you takes your chance

[Silverclown]

9 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

yes i accept your definition of money and also Maloney's. BTW Isn't he one of those youtube "silver going to da moon" pundits?

what do you mean by currency markets? Trading platforms, exchanges, currency traders at their desks?

 

Anyway, enough of me trying to wind up you silver fans.

The question you need to ask yourself is; does the world need silver as a store of value/money?

Thousands of years ago (and hundreds) it was pretty simple. They needed money, a form of exchange and store of value, and gold and silver fitted the bill pretty well.
Precious metals were difficult to get hold of, nice and shiny, fairly inert etc. Their relative value was easy to determine as well; simply their relative scarcity and that gave us the much quoted GSR of 16 or so.
They weren’t used for anything else other than jewellery and fancy flatware/ornaments, but that was just an extension of their PM status.
While ever they were simply circulating money, life was simple, everyone knew where they stood.

Fast forward to today.
Neither metal is used as currency but gold is still regarded as the ultimate store of value. It is the rarest, most inert and it’s a distinctive, pretty colour. Its status is so ingrained in everyone’s psyche it’s difficult to see that changing anytime soon.

However, what about silver?
It’s not needed as currency. It’s still regarded as “money”, but for how long?
It’s not really needed as a store of value, gold does that pretty well on its own.
The general population couldn’t care less about it; in fact 99.99% don’t have a clue what its value is.
How can something be useful as money if very few people actually regard it as such and know its value?
It’s clear to me that its status as a store of value is on the decline. To continue to be it needs everyone to accept it as such. There’s no point having loads of it if very few people want to buy it off you when you want to sell.

It is mainly produced as a bi product of other metal mining so there will always be enough to satisfy industrial demand. If not, the price will go up and if it rises too much, they will try to find alternatives.

“They couldn’t  careless”, but also their in debt and rising. Fiat money will always loss its value, PMS will rise because of population growth in the world.

[sixgun]

@sovereignsteve https://www.500traders.com/gold-silver/

" While most people think of gold and silver as commodities, the markets consider them a form of currency and one that is traded on Forex. "

It is traded as a currency just like GBP, USD, EUR, CHF - you can get crosses for all the currencies with XAU and XAG - this doesn't happen with the commodities. Gold and silver are full blown currencies. Gold is held by central banks and silver by some b/c they are currencies. They are part of their currency reserves. 

The psyop is they aren't currencies - which they are. It's a psyop. The controlled media will tell you any old sh1t you to keep you in the dark. They are currencies PERIOD

https://www.oanda.com/resources/news/pr/oanda101111

"The new silver pairs are XAG/AUD, XAG/CAD, XAG/CHF, XAG/EUR, XAG/GBP, XAG/HKD, XAG/NZD, and XAG/SGD; and the new gold pairs are XAU/AUD, XAU/CAD, XAU/CHF, XAU/EUR, XAU/GBP, XAU/HKD, XAU/NZD and XAU/SGD." These are the currency crosses offered by this trading platform - there are as many others.

They are money - as they are currencies and are a long term store of value. (unlike fiat).

When fiat melts down which always happens people will go to the currencies of safety and security - a flight to safety - this is gold and silver.

Gold and silver will become everyday and favoured currencies when they back cryptos - Kinesis is one, it will probably be the biggest one b/c those behind it have the vaulting infrastructure and have made the right deals.

[StackerNoob]

Just wanted to jump in and say thanks to everyone contributing to this topic so far, its been a thoroughly interesting read, keep it coming!

[PansPurse]

Silver's not a currency, it's a breed of fish.

[sovereignsteve]

20 hours ago, Lowlow said:

There are two questions you need to ask yourself.

(1) Silver coins were minted in numerous ancient civilizations including Egypt, Greece, Rome, etc, ... disregarding their historical value, what are those coins worth today ?

(2) Thousands of paper currencies have been printed since ancient times ... disregarding their historical value, what are those paper currencies worth today ?

Nothing else really needs to be said.

Irrelevant, that's the past. It cannot be disputed but it's the future that counts. You've missed the point.

[sovereignsteve]

11 hours ago, Silverclown said:

“They couldn’t  careless”, but also their in debt and rising. Fiat money will always loss its value, PMS will rise because of population growth in the world.

Illogical. Why should the value of silver rise due to population growth if the vast majority of that population have no interest in it. If very few people regard a metal as "money" then it cannot continue to rise in value.

[sovereignsteve]

10 hours ago, sixgun said:

@sovereignsteve https://www.500traders.com/gold-silver/

" While most people think of gold and silver as commodities, the markets consider them a form of currency and one that is traded on Forex. "

It is traded as a currency just like GBP, USD, EUR, CHF - you can get crosses for all the currencies with XAU and XAG - this doesn't happen with the commodities. Gold and silver are full blown currencies. Gold is held by central banks and silver by some b/c they are currencies. They are part of their currency reserves. 

The psyop is they aren't currencies - which they are. It's a psyop. The controlled media will tell you any old sh1t you to keep you in the dark. They are currencies PERIOD

https://www.oanda.com/resources/news/pr/oanda101111

"The new silver pairs are XAG/AUD, XAG/CAD, XAG/CHF, XAG/EUR, XAG/GBP, XAG/HKD, XAG/NZD, and XAG/SGD; and the new gold pairs are XAU/AUD, XAU/CAD, XAU/CHF, XAU/EUR, XAU/GBP, XAU/HKD, XAU/NZD and XAU/SGD." These are the currency crosses offered by this trading platform - there are as many others.

They are money - as they are currencies and are a long term store of value. (unlike fiat).

When fiat melts down which always happens people will go to the currencies of safety and security - a flight to safety - this is gold and silver.

Gold and silver will become everyday and favoured currencies when they back cryptos - Kinesis is one, it will probably be the biggest one b/c those behind it have the vaulting infrastructure and have made the right deals.

Just as I thought; just because trading platforms lump them in with the currency pairs doesn't make them currencies. Simple convenience as they are often traded by fx traders of various nationalities who want their own pair.

Anyway I thought you regarded silver as money not currency.

I agree that silver has been regarded the same as gold, my point is that this is changing.

[sixgun]

6 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Just as I thought; just because trading platforms lump them in with the currency pairs doesn't make them currencies. Simple convenience as they are often traded by fx traders of various nationalities who want their own pair.

Anyway I thought you regarded silver as money not currency.

I agree that silver has been regarded the same as gold, my point is that this is changing.

here is Bloomberg - notice the currency pair silver is the base currency and the USD is the counter currency = notice the url - it ends CUR - currency.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XAGUSD:CUR

Now here is the page for the GBP/USD currency pair

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR

Silver is a currency - silver is money.

What do you think the difference between a currency and money is?

i hear US traders who only see gold and silver as commodities. They are prohibited from trading XAU/ and XAG pairs. This is the message put out by the US centric controlled media.

Things are going to change. One day they will wake up and the paper market will have collapsed and they will realise the price of gold and silver will have been reset. The only reason to suppress the exchange value of gold and silver as relentlessly as the banks have is because they are money.

[Lowlow]

34 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Irrelevant, that's the past. It cannot be disputed but it's the future that counts. You've missed the point.

Might I recommend "This time it's different: Eight centuries of financial folly"

[Silverclown]

8 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Illogical. Why should the value of silver rise due to population growth if the vast majority of that population have no interest in it. If very few people regard a metal as "money" then it cannot continue to rise in value.

Some people say that the world population growth will peak at 11 billion then plateau, silver could,PMS could see a rise because of this. Just because PMS are used in electronics for one thing( this could see a rise.) 

just because of a percentage see silver as not money, doesn’t mean that it’s worthless. Anything that is rare could and would be used to barter.

[Lowlow]

51 minutes ago, Silverclown said:

Some people say that the world population growth will peak at 11 billion then plateau, silver could,PMS could see a rise because of this. Just because PMS are used in electronics for one thing( this could see a rise.) 

just because of a percentage see silver as not money, doesn’t mean that it’s worthless. Anything that is rare could and would be used to barter.

I don't even see it this way, what does it even matter if most people don't see silver as money ?  Hell, most people are broke, what does it matter what their opinion of silver is.  People keep saying that if push came to shove you wouldn't be able to buy anything with silver, really ?!  Why, because Jane six pack doesn't know that silver is money, what were you planning on buying from her anyway ?  Who cares, she isn't going to have anything you want, she's just going to be wandering around trying to figure out what the hell is going on, as oblivious tomorrow as she is today, as she was yesterday.

What really matters is what the people are in control of resources think of silver.  So what only 5% of the population knows what silver is worth ... truth is that's the 5% you're going to be dealing with in troubled times, they're the ones who you're going to be trying to trade with.  Are we really supposed to stay up worrying that the world's clueless don't know that silver is money when 50% of the population doesn't even have 10k$us to their name when they retire ?  I'm sure they're wonderful people, but they're financially irrelevant.

[ilovesilverireallydo]

52 minutes ago, Lowlow said:

I'm sure they're wonderful people, but they're financially irrelevant.

its a depressing way to look at it, but its true on so many levels. 

[StackerNoob]

2 hours ago, Lowlow said:

I don't even see it this way, what does it even matter if most people don't see silver as money ?  Hell, most people are broke, what does it matter what their opinion of silver is.  People keep saying that if push came to shove you wouldn't be able to buy anything with silver, really ?!  Why, because Jane six pack doesn't know that silver is money, what were you planning on buying from her anyway ?  Who cares, she isn't going to have anything you want, she's just going to be wandering around trying to figure out what the hell is going on, as oblivious tomorrow as she is today, as she was yesterday.

What really matters is what the people are in control of resources think of silver.  So what only 5% of the population knows what silver is worth ... truth is that's the 5% you're going to be dealing with in troubled times, they're the ones who you're going to be trying to trade with.  Are we really supposed to stay up worrying that the world's clueless don't know that silver is money when 50% of the population doesn't even have 10k$us to their name when they retire ?  I'm sure they're wonderful people, but they're financially irrelevant.

In a way, the fact that silver is dragging its heels is probably one of the reasons so few people know its value and/or appreciate silver for what it is. As we have seen time and again, humans are basically herd animals, if the price goes up and the mainstream media starts talking about it, the masses will start to buy and boom, we know the rest.

Those who have made the greatest fortunes throughout history are those who bought when others were dumping. Im not sure you can say people are dumping silver right now (its hard to tell with the price manipulation the way it is) but we are definitly in dumping-region prices.

[sovereignsteve]

13 hours ago, sixgun said:

What do you think the difference between a currency and money is?

you tell me, I clearly don't know the correct answer.

 

13 hours ago, sixgun said:

Things are going to change. One day they will wake up and the paper market will have collapsed and they will realise the price of gold and silver will have been reset. The only reason to suppress the exchange value of gold and silver as relentlessly as the banks have is because they are money

You keep saying things like this relentlessly as if it is fact, but it is your opinion.

I agree that banks have suppressed gold and silver, probably. That too is the past, as silver becomes more irrelevant they will cease and it will become simply a commodity, possibly!

5 hours ago, Silverclown said:

Some people say that the world population growth will peak at 11 billion then plateau, silver could,PMS could see a rise because of this. Just because PMS are used in electronics for one thing( this could see a rise.) 

Nobody would dispute this, but that is silver as a commodity, not money.

 

Good debate guys but we seem to have reached an impasse. No one is offering any more evidence, just deeply held opinions, some valid but some irrelevant to the discussion at hand (IMO )

We'll see what the future holds, BTW the GSR is up to 81.1

 

[Martlet]

Would it be controversial to suggest the GSR ratio of 16:1 was artificial in the first place?  Wasn't it set down by central banks and enforced at that level for decades, despite changes to economies and supply for both metals?

 

[StackerNoob]

24 minutes ago, Martlet said:

Would it be controversial to suggest the GSR ratio of 16:1 was artificial in the first place?  Wasn't it set down by central banks and enforced at that level for decades, despite changes to economies and supply for both metals?

 

Facts cannot be controversial. If this is what happened then thats what happened!

[sovereignsteve]

1 minute ago, StackerNoob said:

Facts cannot be controversial. If this is what happened then thats what happened!

oh I don't know, you clearly are not a politician

[Kman]

Bullion silver and gold aren't a very good investment

It's the lazy/unskilled persons investment, takes no research or knowledge, just buy and hope for the best

I've never seen them as an investment, just a nice store of wealth and gold does the job in a much more compact way

As Steve says I've never heard it explained very persuasively why the GTS has to be a certain way other than it used to be 

 

 

[Silverclown]

1 hour ago, Kman said:

Bullion silver and gold aren't a very good investment

It's the lazy/unskilled persons investment, takes no research or knowledge, just buy and hope for the best

I've never seen them as an investment, just a nice store of wealth and gold does the job in a much more compact way

As Steve says I've never heard it explained very persuasively why the GTS has to be a certain way other than it used to be 

 

 

PMs are a great way to build as a foundation to investment.

[vand]

Roy's just getting upset as he once bought silver for £30 and is still bitterly holding.

GSR has been moving broadly higher over a 100 year period, but even within this we see big peaks and troughs, between 16:1 and 100:1, and even if it continues to move higher in the next 100 years, silver IS very cheap on both long term and short term basis.

I think a brief move above 88:1 is still possible. It would be a significant 2.75 standard deviation move, ie "once a decade" type extremity (ie "back up the truck"). Even at 80:1 silver is a good buy. Of course it probably doesn't seem like it if your did most of your buying at 60:1. Funny how what you previously paid for something can taint your current view of it. Stocks were a great buy when the Dow was 10k... doesn't make them a great buy today.

[Lowlow]

2 minutes ago, vand said:

... ie "once a decade" type extremity (ie "back up the truck"). Even at 80:1 silver is a good buy.

I definitely think its easier to buy silver in anticipation of someday trading it for gold at 80:1 than it would be to buy gold in anticipation of someday trading it for silver at 30:1 ... because I think we all feel that 80:1 is near a top in GSR, while 30:1, well, I would have trouble trading there because it might go to 25:1, or 20:1, or 18:1, or ... I think it is harder to see the other end of that pendulum swing.  Could GSR go to 100:1 ?  I don't see how that happens, but mileage may vary.