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aztecstargazer

Silver Price Analysis

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5a8b61288b695_silverbreakout.thumb.png.838367deb39b7dc981052bb3759d2f36.png

 

 

I compiled this chart today.

The minimum is $13.65/oz, which occurred 12-14-2015. 

The maximum is $21.13/oz, which occured 7-4-2016.

The median is $17.39/oz.

The convergence is interesting to me. $16.66/oz 7-4-2018

 

Do we think the breakout will be up or down is the real question.

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i moved some more cash and completed my Kinesis application tonight. There will be a maximum of 300 000 Kinesis Velocity Tokens - that's $300 million. It will be oversubscribed on the first round. Most of them have already been earmarked. The Kinesis currency token (not KVT) launches in May and trading begins in July. Every token will be backed by metal. By the time this gets into stride there will be 100's of tonnes of gold and 1000's of tonnes of silver behind it. There have been 1000's of tonnes of undeliverable metal shunted off as Exchange for Physical contracts. Most of these will and can never be delivered. i am aware of reliable estimates that these paper IOU's stand at over 1000x the actual physical held.

kinesis.jpg

Edited by sixgun

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34 minutes ago, aztecstargazer said:

5a8b61288b695_silverbreakout.thumb.png.838367deb39b7dc981052bb3759d2f36.png

 

 

I compiled this chart today.

The minimum is $13.65/oz, which occurred 12-14-2015. 

The maximum is $21.13/oz, which occured 7-4-2016.

The median is $17.39/oz.

The convergence is interesting to me. $16.66/oz 7-4-2018

 

Do we think the breakout will be up or down is the real question.

I'm no expert but I think lower for the short term future. 

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Up or down. It depends on your poison.

Ascribe to debt deflationary scenario and all will fall prior to decades long reflation cycle in commodities, with an equal opposite in financial related assets, stocks and bonds. So silver down short term, up long term.

The alternative poison is straight to inflationary scenario, no debt deflation, instead a debt destructive inflationary situation which will reward debtors, ruin lenders and lead into the same positive commodities cycle and negative financial cycle for decades. 

So down then up, or just straight up... I don't like to gamble so I'll just keep building my position as fast as possible. The ship is sinking, get your life jackets put on ready for the last push to the life boats, or get aboard the life boats now those are the best options. I recently read that even a man aboard a sinking ship can be happy when he climbs aboard a lifeboat :P

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12 minutes ago, JCRJM said:

@sixgun Ive tried a few times to understand the kinesis thing is it just along the same lines as the RMG that the royal mint will eventually be rolling out or nothing like it?

 

In theory it is similar. The CME is the entity behind gold and silver futures. The CME has a tiny fraction of the metal behind the gold and silver futures. Gold and silver longs have increasingly started standing for delivery and they cannot deliver. These contracts are being shunted over to London as EFP's. London does not have the metal, it is going to blow up. Would i trust there was metal in the vault with the Royal Mint (government) and the CME - 100% NO.

I suspect this Royal Mint project is like GLD and SLV. Simply a way of taking pressure off actual physical metal demand. Just another sham. It is not going to work.

Maguire said last summer he had investment funds for at least 250 tonnes of gold lined up. He says they attempted to buy the gold but were blocked. The LBMA refused to deal. Other methods are going to be used. The people behind Kinesis are to put it bluntly hell bent on blowing up the paper market. They have $billions on tap and there will be $billions more lining up right now. We will have to see. There really was nothing that was obviously going to break the cartel's grip anytime soon but now the ABX will throw the Kinesis bail of straw on the camel's back.

 

Edited by sixgun

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22 minutes ago, sixgun said:

In theory it is similar. The CME is the entity behind gold and silver futures. The CME has a tiny fraction of the metal behind the gold and silver futures. Gold and silver longs have increasingly started standing for delivery and they cannot deliver. These contracts are being shunted over to London as EFP's. London does not have the metal, it is going to blow up. Would i trust there was metal in the vault with the Royal Mint (government) and the CME - 100% NO.

I suspect this Royal Mint project is like GLD and SLV. Simply a way of taking pressure off actual physical metal demand. Just another sham. It is not going to work.

Maguire said last summer he had investment funds for at least 250 tonnes of gold lined up. He says they attempted to buy the gold but were blocked. The LBMA refused to deal. Other methods are going to be used. The people behind Kinesis are to put it bluntly hell bent on blowing up the paper market. They have $billions on tap and there will be $billions more lining up right now. We will have to see. There really was nothing that was obviously going to break the cartel's grip anytime soon but now the ABX will throw the Kinesis bail of straw on the camel's back.

 

It all sounds good. Hopefully we all make it through in the end. Even my friends economics lecturer tells them its not a matter of if it is just when. 

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42 minutes ago, KDave said:

Up or down. It depends on your poison.

Ascribe to debt deflationary scenario and all will fall prior to decades long reflation cycle in commodities, with an equal opposite in financial related assets, stocks and bonds. So silver down short term, up long term.

The alternative poison is straight to inflationary scenario, no debt deflation, instead a debt destructive inflationary situation which will reward debtors, ruin lenders and lead into the same positive commodities cycle and negative financial cycle for decades. 

So down then up, or just straight up... I don't like to gamble so I'll just keep building my position as fast as possible. The ship is sinking, get your life jackets put on ready for the last push to the life boats, or get aboard the life boats now those are the best options. I recently read that even a man aboard a sinking ship can be happy when he climbs aboard a lifeboat :P

 

<_< okay. why is it always doom and gloom with precious metal investors? I am just trying to better understand technical analysis so I can better approach the FOREX market. I think we are too near the top in terms of the US stock market. Since PM's are technically "money", prudent analysis treating it as a currency seems necessary.

The spot price of silver is established through the ETF's and futures contracts. This is the kind of thing the "professionals" do. Knowing where they set their trailing stop losses gives you the "crystal ball" which can help you predict prices. 

Dollar-cost-averaging is extremely inefficient and was eating into my profitability. I'm actually expecting the price to go up. Once it approaches the descending line in my chart, I will be selling my entire stack.

I need to condense my holding as I have far too much variety. I am not looking to sell this stuff on ebay or anywhere else. I forgot the acronym K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid).   

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Long term I can't see anything different than a change in cycle, it's not doom and gloom it's history repeating.

I need to put more time in with technical analysis, I follow a couple of chaps who publish their findings on various markets short term, and to summarise it usually goes like this;

It might go up, it might go down, but I could be wrong. 

What use is that? Not much of a crystal ball is it. 

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2 hours ago, KDave said:

Long term I can't see anything different than a change in cycle, it's not doom and gloom it's history repeating.

I need to put more time in with technical analysis, I follow a couple of chaps who publish their findings on various markets short term, and to summarise it usually goes like this;

It might go up, it might go down, but I could be wrong. 

What use is that? Not much of a crystal ball is it. 

 

Technical analysis is not perfect. But then again, neither is fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis would suggest the gold/silver ratio should be around 16:1 to 9:1; Based on how much exists. But it isn't.

The main reason I study charts is because most influential trades are made by computers. Computers follow programs, and programs follow the numbers. Numbers establish trends, and traders follow the same data. This leads to a herd mentality, which is a tool I plan to take advantage of as frequently as possible.

I have come to look at the precious metals game as a combination between Poker, Art-collecting, and math. But a good poker player knows the math and plays the odds. You can't play the odds if you don't do the math, track the probabilities and bounce these factors against the other people sitting at the table.

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An accurate analogy, TA is certainly playing the odds, but when the odds are often close to 50/50 then you are just as likely to predict up or down with a coin flip. Its a bit like the dollar cost averaging you mentioned earlier, you need to consistently apply it over a long time frame to see positive results, averaging into a down year will not get your anything but a loss obviously, but considering that gold has provided a 10% return on average over the past 15 years in USD, nearer 7% after inflation, then you can see the merits of averaging in over a decent time frame. In the case of TA and trying to predict day to day movements, if you can consistently get 60% odds of choosing up or down correctly (not likely), then over time this gain will materialise but only part and parcel with getting it wrong for 40% of the time and only with consistency and determination, disciplined process and having enough in the bank to cover the times you get it wrong. Trading is a different game to what I am trying my hand at, but it is interesting and entertaining to try and time purchases as part of my ongoing strategy of 'just keep buying'.

Fundamental analysis is a big and complex beast in itself, and it depends a lot on personal bias as to what fundamentals you will see to determine your investment strategy. Production ratios or stock ratios being used as the measure of where value should be is one I frequently see coming from silver advocates who claim that, because silver is better at doing stuff and there is less of it around, it is worth more, or has more upside than gold. A fair assumption on first glance, unless you consider that value is a human idea, and we are not ideal candidates for predictive numerical measurement, being flawed, illogical and emotional (unlike computers which are built to be the opposite) and we put values on things that often have no fundamental value to explain the price at all, the numerical amount of above ground gold being a good example. 

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16 minutes ago, KDave said:

playing the odds, but when the odds are often close to 50/50 then you are just as likely to predict up or down with a coin flip.

The guys at the Options trading outfit Tastytrade always say no-one knows. Well being a master conspiracy theorist i disagree but what is true is they do not know. So they play the odds. Trade small trade often. Options can give you an 80% chance of success. You will have losers but on average you will come out ahead (in theory).

The theory behind averaging in is you don't know when the best price will be so you make lots of small buys. Some will be at good prices and so not so good. We believe gold and silver will do well over the longer term. Despite all the nay sayers gold has done pretty good over the longer term.

Now is a good time to buy in especially in silver. So i keep buying. Right now we are at a turning point in precious metals, i know this b/c the current manipulation has become unsustainable and will force a cash settlement and price reset. They have been manipulated and despite that gold is ahead. i think those who have bought bullion and or nice coins will be handsomely rewarded in the future.

If price goes up or down a bit if you are averaging in it will all come out in the wash.

Edited by sixgun

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9 minutes ago, sixgun said:

The guys at the Options trading outfit Tastytrade always say no-one knows. Well being a master conspiracy theorist i disagree but what is true is they do not know. So they play the odds. Trade small trade often. Options can give you an 80% chance of success. You will have losers but on average you will come out ahead (in theory).

The theory behind averaging in is you don't know when the best price will be so you make lots of small buys. Some will be at good prices and so not so good. We believe gold and silver will do well over the longer term. Despite all the nay sayers gold has done pretty good over the longer term.

Now is a good time to buy in especially in silver. So i keep buying. Right now we are at a turning point in precious metals, i know this b/c the current manipulation has become unsustainable and will force a cash settlement and price reset. They have been manipulated and despite that gold is ahead. i think those who have bought bullion and or nice coins will be handsomely rewarded in the future.

If price goes up or down a bit if you are averaging in it will all come out in the wash.

Agreed, you articulate the points better. 

A turning point I am not so sure we are at such a juncture, everything says we are but then it has for years has it not? A commodities market built on fractional reserve principle has been fundamentally unsustainable since day one and the desire to own paper over physical and the requirement to only own paper for many large players have kept the unsustainable going for far longer than it has any right to. I remember in Jan 2016 the claims per ounce of gold at the comex was 500 to 1, nobody cared then so what makes 1000 to 1 any different. Unsustainable can be sustainable for a very long time, and for that as a buyer, I am grateful!

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