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orion

2018 silver Emu coin from Perth at LPM with only 30,000 mintage

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There are f-cking 30,000 of these coins, a collector will only want one if that!  All the other coins he buys will have to be sold at some point in the future. With the price of the coin now I would say let the greedy buy them and sit on them I will wait and wait I have lots to collect, I can buy silver bullion which will give me a better return in the long run because in a few years no one will care that much about the emu coin and dealers won't want it either any more than a Britannia. 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 2/23/2018 at 09:38, Pipers said:

There are f-cking 30,000 of these coins, a collector will only want one if that!  All the other coins he buys will have to be sold at some point in the future. With the price of the coin now I would say let the greedy buy them and sit on them I will wait and wait I have lots to collect, I can buy silver bullion which will give me a better return in the long run because in a few years no one will care that much about the emu coin and dealers won't want it either any more than a Britannia. 

 

 

 

 

 

Did your theory work out well for you on the silver swans? 

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nothing against the mob of Emu, but just like last time the Palladium Emu, they were hard to get

this time is no difference, they may be over priced, and never a need to buy into any hype at all

a collector does not need to over pay, just to get the milk spots later, when he can get the milk spots now

none the less, its a rare mob of birds

 

 

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6 hours ago, orion said:

Did your theory work out well for you on the silver swans? 

Don't waste your time or get drawn in. There are always some who just do not understand the semi-numi bullion market or how and why some work more than others, and then take personal umbrage when premiums increase. Some seem to confuse it with the proof market, which is much smaller and does de-value and diminish in memory as years go by. The collector bullion market is the polar opposite, largely. The market for collector bullion stays healthy through the years.

I have enough respect for other peoples chosen PM "areas" so that, even though i might not buy into theirs or fully understand or see the attraction, i don't get angry and bitter over it. Or make it my business to post some bile which just shows how little i know about that area.

Differing opinions are good and healthy in a forum. Especially when it's logical and factual, and leads to an open exchange of views. Or done with good natured humour. Or by all means saying bluntly they despise something if that makes them feel a bit better, but not that others are any lesser for liking/having/wanting. You can tell which ones just want an argument, or are playing to a crowd. Or for whatever reason, just feel like taking a whiz over other's enthusiasm. Those aren't worth your efforts, imo.

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9 hours ago, orion said:

Did your theory work out well for you on the silver swans? 

I did not buy the swans either, it's still very early days yet.  I have time on my hands i did not pay over the odds for bullion.  I have been buying coins ok gold for a very long time I have seen this lots of times, create a market then profit as the buyers compete with each other when in reality they have been hoodwinked into buying the items in the first place at the heightened price!

Good for you if you have profited but do not try to fool me please.  I am in it for the long run and have a tried and tested buying strategy.

I am not angry with anyone but do not want anyone to get carried away or burnt financially as they are the last in the chain before the price falls. 

 

 

Please do not treat me like a fool.  I was trying to put some level headed thinking on the emu coin buying frenzy.  I have no doubt it is a quality coin I was making a point about value and time which in my view is very valid especially for some who are newer to coin stacking collecting.  there is nothing wrong in letting a series go esp if one thinks it's over priced or if you miss the value price.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Pipers said:

I did not buy the swans either, it's still very early days yet.  I have time on my hands i did not pay over the odds for bullion.  I have been buying coins ok gold for a very long time I have seen this lots of times, create a market then profit as the buyers compete with each other when in reality they have been hoodwinked into buying the items in the first place at the heightened price!

Good for you if you have profited but do not try to fool me please.  I am in it for the long run and have a tried and tested buying strategy.

I am not angry with anyone but do not want anyone to get carried away or burnt financially as they are the last in the chain before the price falls. 

 

 

Please do not treat me like a fool.  I was trying to put some level headed thinking on the emu coin buying frenzy.  I have no doubt it is a quality coin I was making a point about value and time which in my view is very valid especially for some who are newer to coin stacking collecting.  there is nothing wrong in letting a series go esp if one thinks it's over priced or if you miss the value price.

 

 

 

Look, sorry, but nobody set out to treat you like a fool. If anything it was your original post that was calling anyone else a fool to buy it for a higher premium than a current kookaburra, for example. But thanks for your reply because you make some good points. Like you say, with the new collector in mind i'll offer some balance.

You mention the newer coin stacking collector. What you are saying is that a collector who pays anything more than the price of, say, a standard bullion britannia, kook or silver eagle, is being burnt. Regardless. And that given enough time any high premium bullion coin will revert back to those levels. This is totally misleading. Following that road they'll never get any collection going, and secondly that makes them a bullion stacker not a collector. You have decided that you won't pay over the odds for bullion. And you would be right, if your goal is to accumulate bullion. The swans, emu, and the like are not simple bullion. Once high demand is established, prices will never revert back to launch levels. I will grant you that the peaks soon after from some places are often too high though, but they do drop back and find a realistic level in a coins first year. In the case of the emu, a peak of currently US$58 on ebay is cheeky. A price in the low to mid $40's is absolutely realistic for the longer term level. And will remain so. As each year passes it will probably increase slightly. And silver spot price only affects them in one direction. By that i mean if spot drops the price of these types of coin do not, but if spot goes up so does the coin.

I also think there is some misunderstanding of who is buying, why they are buying, and why premiums end up where they do. First of all, lots of coins from different mints get issued in the 20-50k range. The closer to the lower end obviously, plays a part in premium. Demand and physical uptake within a short window plays the second role in premium.

This coin, like the swan before it, has been shooting out the doors on four continents, in days. There's no cabal, or hoodwinking buyers into competing and hence drive the price up. People want it. Each and every dealer from launch day has seen their allocated quantities being bought briskly. Some had to go back and ask the distributor for more. Prices go up in that scenario. This coin did not get launched at the current prices. It is where it is due to continual physical demand.

So the buyers. Who are they? In the early days of issue they are combined single/two/three coin collectors, and - the bulk buyers. The bulk buyers are a mixed bunch. Some certainly are the opportunist flippers, but an awful lot more are stackers who prefer to stack-collect semi-numi bullion rather than same lowest premium bullion. A lot of this type of stacker buy for the very long term. They are the ones who buy one/two/three rolls of lunars, kooks and koalas every year. Lunars and kooks with 300k & 500k have no problem selling out each year. Is it really such a stretch to imagine many of those buyers have also been the reason for taking a sizeable chunk out of the paltry 30k mintage of the emu? 6-10% the mintage of other Perth sell out ranges? Leaving a much reduced number available for circulation that the one coin collector can get hold of. There should be no illusions either that three years or so will see the stackers dump the entire stock back into circulation, that's not what they tend to do.

A collector, and by that i don't mean one who buys two or five or ten of every coin.... a collector who likes something will pay the premium. Because he just wants one. Ebay is evidence of that. The ones who complain are those who would like to buy ten, but not at that premium.

 

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50 minutes ago, swAgger said:

Look, sorry, but nobody set out to treat you like a fool. If anything it was your original post that was calling anyone else a fool to buy it for a higher premium than a current kookaburra, for example. But thanks for your reply because you make some good points. Like you say, with the new collector in mind i'll offer some balance.

You mention the newer coin stacking collector. What you are saying is that a collector who pays anything more than the price of, say, a standard bullion britannia, kook or silver eagle, is being burnt. Regardless. And that given enough time any high premium bullion coin will revert back to those levels. This is totally misleading. Following that road they'll never get any collection going, and secondly that makes them a bullion stacker not a collector. You have decided that you won't pay over the odds for bullion. And you would be right, if your goal is to accumulate bullion. The swans, emu, and the like are not simple bullion. Once high demand is established, prices will never revert back to launch levels. I will grant you that the peaks soon after from some places are often too high though, but they do drop back and find a realistic level in a coins first year. In the case of the emu, a peak of currently US$58 on ebay is cheeky. A price in the low to mid $40's is absolutely realistic for the longer term level. And will remain so. As each year passes it will probably increase slightly. And silver spot price only affects them in one direction. By that i mean if spot drops the price of these types of coin do not, but if spot goes up so does the coin.

I also think there is some misunderstanding of who is buying, why they are buying, and why premiums end up where they do. First of all, lots of coins from different mints get issued in the 20-50k range. The closer to the lower end obviously, plays a part in premium. Demand and physical uptake within a short window plays the second role in premium.

This coin, like the swan before it, has been shooting out the doors on four continents, in days. There's no cabal, or hoodwinking buyers into competing and hence drive the price up. People want it. Each and every dealer from launch day has seen their allocated quantities being bought briskly. Some had to go back and ask the distributor for more. Prices go up in that scenario. This coin did not get launched at the current prices. It is where it is due to continual physical demand.

So the buyers. Who are they? In the early days of issue they are combined single/two/three coin collectors, and - the bulk buyers. The bulk buyers are a mixed bunch. Some certainly are the opportunist flippers, but an awful lot more are stackers who prefer to stack-collect semi-numi bullion rather than same lowest premium bullion. A lot of this type of stacker buy for the very long term. They are the ones who buy one/two/three rolls of lunars, kooks and koalas every year. Lunars and kooks with 300k & 500k have no problem selling out each year. Is it really such a stretch to imagine many of those buyers have also been the reason for taking a sizeable chunk out of the paltry 30k mintage of the emu? 6-10% the mintage of other Perth sell out ranges? Leaving a much reduced number available for circulation that the one coin collector can get hold of. There should be no illusions either that three years or so will see the stackers dump the entire stock back into circulation, that's not what they tend to do.

A collector, and by that i don't mean one who buys two or five or ten of every coin.... a collector who likes something will pay the premium. Because he just wants one. Ebay is evidence of that. The ones who complain are those who would like to buy ten, but not at that premium.

 

Absolutely spot on. There are many coins in the market that prove this theory. Take previous Brist pre2012 for example. The ones with unique designs often go for twice spot, despite being several hundred thousand in mintage. Try buying a 30k mintage engelhard for spot. Plenty of examples. The higher the initial buying frenzy, the better the coins hold their premiums too due to the nostalgia factor. 

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Ok let's take the stock horse first year take up gone straight away!! Then sales down and down. 

What I am getting at is this :- pricing structure of these coins go out at price 1 then at price 2 then 3,4,5 etc this causes a frenzy way above the price of the said coin should ever achieve.  I would argue unless you are in at price 1 or 2 you should never buy or in other words buy first then sell fast, keeping only what you want for yourself. Or wait to buy untill the floor falls out, and it does on most of these coins,  over the long run

I did not mention a cabal, just plain old sales tactics  of price structures or drip feeding or hoodwinking the buyers into thinking the coins have all gone when they have not the dealer then ratchets the price up to the next level. plus

I am not complaining that I didn't get any action on this coin I don't need any action on the coin. 

How do you know the price will increase each year probably, this is just a prediction.  Imo the silver price will increase but the semi numi coins will not  Until silver gets to 20usd.

 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Pipers said:

How do you know the price will increase each year probably, this is just a prediction.

No less of a prediction than the one you offered - " in a few years no one will care that much about the emu coin and dealers won't want it either any more than a Britannia.  ".

And man, could i go on about the stock horse and why that failed. So many reasons for that, and i don't have the energy. The blueprints of which though, i'm not seeing repeated on the Emu (or the Swan). Although having said that, even taking the stock horse as a failed series, Just double checked ye olde spreadesheet and i do still occasionally get a sale/trade on the 2013 for just over 50% profit. The wonderful and mysterious world of coin collecting!

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3 hours ago, Pipers said:

plain old sales tactics  of price structures or drip feeding or hoodwinking the buyers into thinking the coins have all gone when they have not the dealer then ratchets the price

FYI I work in marketing (groan!). There are several reasons to drip feed products:

  • could be to drive up demand, yes, but that’s just good business,and an age old practice for high demand items
  • could be to prevent massive single person buys to allow more customers access
  • could be to encourage people to keep visiting your site, so that they may buy other items too
  • could be good old common sense, it’s a free market, if one pays higher for your product and you stand to make more profit why not?

Pms, despite what anyone thinks, have low margins on them. Compare them to normal retail in say consumer goods, where margins could easily achieve 50-100% and you have a business that relies on high volumes or the occasional hits. 30k coins are not a volume product when the demand is global. With over 1000 dealers worldwide, how many do you think each would get to sell? Let’s assume only the top 50 get them. That is still only 600 coins available to each to sell. With that low inventory I wouldn’t begrudge them a higher profit, as a speculator these would be certainly the hallmarks I would be looking for in a coin to invest in.  

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12 hours ago, swAgger said:

No less of a prediction than the one you offered - " in a few years no one will care that much about the emu coin and dealers won't want it either any more than a Britannia.  ".

And man, could i go on about the stock horse and why that failed. So many reasons for that, and i don't have the energy. The blueprints of which though, i'm not seeing repeated on the Emu (or the Swan). Although having said that, even taking the stock horse as a failed series, Just double checked ye olde spreadesheet and i do still occasionally get a sale/trade on the 2013 for just over 50% profit. The wonderful and mysterious world of coin collecting!

That's right no one will care and that's when I will buy at a very low price!! ;)

The other point from my first post is true too, if person A buys 500 emu's at a given price they are invested and would like to see a profit on the emu coins so they have skin in the game. This means they are now going to pump the coin to, this then brings more attention, buyer b comes on board he bought some from buyer a or from a dealer at a higher price he has 100 coins, he wants a profit he now has skin in the game so he joins in and starts to pump the coin. Then buyer c buys at a higher price etc you see what I mean, this goes on untill the frenzy stops! And the highest price is obtained.  The price then falls back then over the years the coin is forgotten about, while the mint moves into the next biggest hit and so on and so on.  That's why unless you are buyer A or B you should not buy at all!! 

It is my opinion that silver buyers should stay with gov mint major bullion coins  Perth do some really nice bullion coins.

That's my opinion I am not being nasty I was just trying to help on the forum. 

 

 

 

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On 2/23/2018 at 01:38, Pipers said:

....... I will wait and wait......... because in a few years no one will care that much about the emu coin and dealers won't want it either any more than a Britannia.

 

1 hour ago, Pipers said:

That's right no one will care and that's when I will buy at a very low price!! ;)

Your plan from what you've been saying is to wait however many years necessary for the possibility of a coin series to fail, the price to fall back to original level, when nobody else wants or cares about a coin, and then you buy. When dealers, collectors, no one else cares anymore about it, from that time on. Those are the conditions under which you'll buy them. Honestly, perhaps the whole semi-numi thing isn't for you?

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So first experience buying from the Polish dealer Metal Market. Impressed with them. Very professional outfit. From ordering, to bank transfer, to shipping and delivery. They updated with emails every step of the way. Any i sent them were replied to fast, and polite, friendly and helpful. Only thing i had to go back and request for after shipping was the tracking number which was promptly supplied. Shipped last thursday, able to track it all the way, and arrived this morning. Courier was DPD throughout. DPD themselves emailed and texted in advance with a delivery time (accurate too).

Cool freebies chucked in the box, nice pen and a Chopin cd (appropriate choice from a Polish company!)

Glad to know of them, and i will happily order again in the future.

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Edited by swAgger

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6 minutes ago, BackyardBullion said:

If anyone wanted any adding to the group order they are working out at about £25 per coin (before all the onwards postage & share of shipping etc).

Emu.thumb.jpg.e48278809641d3a06f8e6515a8c4a920.jpg

One thing - MAXIMUM 2 COINS / CUSTOMER :)

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3 hours ago, ilovesilverireallydo said:

Well how many did you order then? :P Ash got sold out of 80 pretty quickly despite the 4 per customer limit. 

:ph34r: er, some. :) i didn't go too mad, really, it's been such a good couple of months so far this year for lots of good coins. Got to spread the budget around, right? Of course, i use the word 'budget' as though it's something well managed. When in reality that was well and truly chucked out the window by the end of january. I might let it back indoors in a few months.... or not

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