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vand

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  1. Like
    vand reacted to Lowlow in Advice for a total beginner in stocks / shares   
    My advice, stay single and don't have children, and don't start living an expensive lifestyle, do that and you've already won.
    Having said that, the best investment for most people is buying debt.
    What kind of debt ?  What if I told you that you could invest in debt that would pay you 15-20% interest, have zero chance of default, and would give you peace of mind all at the same time, would you invest in it ?  That's the situation if you purchase you OWN debt i.e. pay off your own credit card.  There's no mathematical difference between buying a debt instrument that pays 15% interest and paying off your own credit card to save yourself from paying 15%, the math is the same, so if you have credit card debt buy the best investment you have available to you ... your own credit card debt.
    Then once you've paid off your CC debt, buy other debt that you owe.  If you are paying 8% on a loan, or 5%, you're not likely to find a better note to buy than your own debt at that rate, not without taking risks ... and you know you aren't going to default on yourself, so your own debt is a perfect investment.
    Same with a home mortgage.  If you can't find a debt investment that pays higher interest than what you are paying on your own home mortgage, with comparable risks associated with it, then you are better off paying off your own mortgage than investing in lower paying notes.  It simply makes NO sense to invest in a certificate of deposit paying 1.5% if your own mortgage is costing you 3%, that makes NO sense at all.  There is no mathematical difference if you had your home paid off and decided to mortgage it at 3% so that you could invest in a certificate of deposit paying 1.5% ... you would never make that decision, but that's exactly the decision you've made if you choose to get something like a CD without first paying off your mortgage.
    Stock investing, same thing.  Buying stocks (shares) before you've paid off all the debt you have is the same mathematically as if you borrowed money from the bank so that you could buy shares, and would you do that if your debts were paid off ?  Yes, you might make 10% in the stock market, or it might go into a bear market and you could lose money ... everyone is a stock market genius at a market top, not so much once the bear starts chewing your face off.
    All that said, if you don't have a penny in debt ... have at it!  The world is yours.  Once you are in the black you can start investing in whatever you want at your age, you are young enough to lose money and have the chance to start over from scratch.  I highly recommend "The Richest Man in Babylon", available as a PDF online for free (search "the richest man in babylon pdf"), available in any bookstore in the United States, probably available in any bookstore in the English speaking world (and beyond ?).
    The other book I would HIGHLY recommend if you are going to be speculating in stocks is "The Disciplined Trader" by Mark Douglas.  Trading stocks (not buy and hold, but actually moving in and out of positions), futures, options, etc, is mostly about your own mind and how you react to what is going on, and this book is about disciplining your own mind, understanding yourself and how your ego and feelings influence your own behavior in the markets.  Most don't know this, but the overwhelming number of people who trade the markets LOSE MONEY, they do WORSE THAN CHANCE, and this book explains why that happens.  That is not an exaggeration, you could literally write a computer program that randomly buy and sells stocks and do better than the overwhelming number of people who actively trade stocks, because their own feelings work against them in the markets.
    Just my opinion.
  2. Like
    vand reacted to FoolzGold in What's your favourite queen,s beast   
    My take on them so far:
    Liked the Lion but not quite enough to buy it at the time. Lived to regret that now... Griffin - truly a thing of beauty. An intricate heraldic design that looks great in gold or silver. Dragon - also gorgeous, especially in silver. Unicorn - similar in style to the Lion. A nice coin but not my favourite. Bull - a stuck-up cow. It's not a disaster like the Lunar Mutt but it's definitely my least-favourite. I'd rather buy another Griffin, Dragon, or even Unicorn given the funds. If I'm honest, I have to say part of the reason why I love the Griffin and Dragon coins in particular is that they look like treasure. I mean if you're going to have gold and silver coins, having them look like treasure is no bad thing.
    Still a beautiful series so far and I'm hoping for some more great designs to come.
  3. Like
    vand got a reaction from Tn21 in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    They're probably right. Even the FTSE itself isn't horrendously expensive, its really the US that is most expensive.
    But the problem is that all equity markets broadly move in sync now, and the US leads everything else, so if and when it goes, everything else will follow. 
    Earnings are just one measure of course, you can also look at price to book, dividend etc, and by these I think they don't look that cheap.
     
  4. Thanks
    vand got a reaction from Silverclown in The price of silver   
  5. Like
    vand reacted to RichRock in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    If you're looking to speculate, the only stock I would touch would be miners. First Majestic for instance. Now (IMHO) could be a good price if prepared to hold for a bit of short/mid term chop. I expect miners to do very well when the masses jump into PM's if panic hits the market. First Maj took a nice jump from $3 to $18 in a few months during 2016, but now back to $6, seems good entry point to me anywhere from here to $5.
    Your FTSE 5800-5500 level matches the 50% retracement March '09 - Jan '18 @ just over 5600 area. I'm in for a drop to the 61.8 Fib @ just above 5100 zone, so you are not as far out as me.
    I would say that last Thursday/Friday was just another tremor before the quake hits properly. I am patiently waiting for the bulls to be served up, medium rare, with a fine glass of red. 
     
     
     

  6. Like
    vand reacted to Lowlow in Shifting Into Cash   
    Cash is king ... sometimes.
    In 2008 when the price of everything was falling through the floor, that was actually the price of cash INCREASING.  It's hard to see, however, because cash is priced in cash, so the way to see it is to watch when everything moves in the same direction - housing, fuel, precious metals, stocks, your neighbors car, pretty much everything.  During a market downturn like 2008 cash gets more scarce because people who are losing "money" (electronic blips that they say they are rich) suddenly worry about making their mortgage, so they sell stuff for cash .. or, if you prefer ... they use stuff to BUY cash.  That buying of cash along with the destruction of not-really-cash (bonds, stock, derivatives) results in cash going up in price, it buys more.
    I think we are headed for that again, soon.
    If you turn the stock market graph upside down so that the recent highs are at the bottom, it looks almost like capitulation when the market is trying to put in a bottom so it can change directions.  It's characterized by a sharp sustained fall, panic selling (or in the case of a top panic buying), and then a reversal.  Could that be the beginning of the end ?  I've always believed we'll have a blow off of a top to this multi-decades long bull market.  Maybe this is finally it.
    As for Trump, Trump has little to nothing to do with it.  Same as Obama had little to nothing to do with the reversal from the Bush days, and the same as Bush had little to nothing to do with the market reaching an intermediate top and then taking a hit in 2008.  Markets do what they do, and if anyone can influence them its the Federal Reserve, but mostly they crash because they reach tops, and they recover because they reach bottoms, and then trade everywhere else.  Markets don't run on Trump tweets, they run on fear and greed, same as they always have.
  7. Like
    vand got a reaction from kimchi in First World Problem   
    If silver is re-evaluated to what we think it should be let me assure you that this will be a very nice "problem" to have.
  8. Like
    vand got a reaction from kimchi in First World Problem   
    If silver is re-evaluated to what we think it should be let me assure you that this will be a very nice "problem" to have.
  9. Like
    vand got a reaction from Kman in What's your favourite queen,s beast   
    I was going to say Griffin, but then I thought about them all and the Lion is also a majestic work of art. Probably not much in it - I think most would agree that they are both beautiful.
  10. Like
    vand reacted to montesf1030 in When did you start stacking metals?   
    In October of 2016 !!! With the JM Bullion 10oz started pack !!!! Now over 3000 ounces later !!!!! And a bit of gold !!! I am hook
  11. Like
    vand got a reaction from LittleJohnSilver in The Farce of UK Silver Stackers Facebook Group   
    Not being funny, but anyone joining a FB group advertising they hold physical precious metals is an idiot.
  12. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Advice for a total beginner in stocks / shares   
    This is less than half the story. Yes, you can prove that "taking the best 10 days out of the last 40 years will halve your total returns" but that is a very, very narrow view. 
    consider:
    If Jonny X is the world's worst market timer then not only will he buy stocks near a market peak, but he is also duty-bound to sell them NOT AT BULL MARKET PEAKS, BUT AT BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS. This is what most clueless investors do. They not only buy stocks near peaks, but also crystalize their initial mistake by selling during the ensuring panic. This is what this brainless articles that advocate "don't worry about the timing" don't consider. 
     
    Most people who bought Fidelity Magellan LOST money... Despite being invested in the world's greatest growth fund during the world's greatest bull market. 
    You can literally have the greatest investment vehicle in the world and still lose money if you don't understand why your are invested in the first place.
    http://www.innovativewealth.com/wall-street-wisdom/individual-investors-bad-investing/
     
    Today's homework in light of this:  find the best return from a bull market peak to a bear market bottom over a 20 year time period.
     
  13. Like
    vand got a reaction from Goldmick in The price of silver   
    Considering GSR was 100:1 back in the early 90s there is no reason at all why it could not go back there, and I can easily see a scenario where it can happen. 
    The GSR is what it is. If by going to 100:1 it would invalidated your belief in silver and cause you to question why you hold PMs, then probably best that you don't put all your eggs in the silver basket but buy some gold too. 
  14. Like
    vand got a reaction from Goldmick in The price of silver   
    Considering GSR was 100:1 back in the early 90s there is no reason at all why it could not go back there, and I can easily see a scenario where it can happen. 
    The GSR is what it is. If by going to 100:1 it would invalidated your belief in silver and cause you to question why you hold PMs, then probably best that you don't put all your eggs in the silver basket but buy some gold too. 
  15. Like
    vand reacted to KDave in The price of silver   
    The way I see it Palladium and Rhodium are expensive relative to gold, silver and platinum, platinum is cheap relative to gold, and silver is cheap relative to gold, platinum, palladium and rhodium. More importantly, commodities are cheap relative to everything, but I would chose the commodities cheaper relative to each other historically, which is why silver and platinum are attractive even after the premiums. 
  16. Like
    vand reacted to caloundracats in For Kookaburra Lovers   
    For those of you who have not seen a Kookaburra live, I thought I'd share this article from today's Daily Mail. 
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5534915/Kookaburra-eats-snake-Queensland-backyard-feed.html
    They are lovely birds and can become quite tame if you offer them small pieces of meat.
     
     
  17. Like
    vand got a reaction from Tn21 in Modern football is rubbish   
    Yes, it’s bad. Been turned into a money grab since the formation of the PL. unless you are lucky enough to support one of the elitist monied clubs then there is little point in engaging. 
    These days I couldn’t really care less about football. I much prefer horses, where the average jock is far more relatable.
  18. Like
    vand got a reaction from RichRock in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    There is going to be a rude awakening. The FTSE dipped below 7100 in futures market, just a mere whiff off last month's lows.. meanwhile the mainstream financial press are completely oblivious and treating it like the correction is done and dusted. 9 years of bull market means that COMPLACENCY is rife. 
     
    Paul Tudor Jones is the latest to say what we all know:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/01/here-are-highlights-from-paul-tudor-jones-interview-with-goldman-sachs.html
  19. Like
    vand got a reaction from RichRock in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    ... and now just like that FTSE and DAX have made new lows. UNLIKE last month, this latest drop hasn't even made any sort of news. Complacency is stiff rife, which is why it is far from over.
  20. Thanks
    vand got a reaction from RichRock in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    Stealth bear market is well underway. FTSE is Printing with a 69xx handle. Path of least resistance is DOWN.
    Stock market bulls - you have been warned!! 
  21. Like
    vand reacted to KDave in Used Car recommendations   
    Congratulations Vand! 
    Number 1 consideration when buying a car for young kids - boot space. You are going to need a bigger boot mate for the pram and the rest 
    Number 2 A car is a tool, if gets from A to B reliably then its done its job. It spends most of the day sat in a car park depreciating in value. 
    Consider the diesel tax coming in April, my Focus is 11 years and going into the top end of the new theft table. My brother has a petrol fiesta bought new had no issues in 5 years no maintenance required. My focus needed work a the 9 year point, new discs pads and springs, cambelt at 10 (standard), windscreen pump failed at 7 year point, all less than a grand. I bought it second hand 3 years old. My old man is a mechanic and pushed us towards ford because the parts are cheap, but I would prefer a car that gets to 100k and 10 years without needing work, but they are out of my price range if they even exist.
  22. Like
    vand reacted to NRSovereign in Used Car recommendations   
    Congrats with the new car  
  23. Like
    vand reacted to KDave in Used Car recommendations   
    That's a proper used car very nice. Plenty of boot space. No reason it can't go to 200k and beyond being a diesel.
  24. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Silver Monitoring Thread £ only.   
    The greatest myth in investing and trading is that price action can be explained by events ex post.
     
    The truth is usually the opposite. Price action moves in a way that largely predicts future events. 
  25. Like
    vand got a reaction from arcglide in Brexit.   
    All Governments are bureaucrats, non more so that the EU, so I have no idea why anyone expected anything else at this stage of proceedings.
    I don't know if we'll be able to buy silver from Estonia at the same prices that we currently are able to, but I think there will always be loopholes that can be exploited. We should look at whatever agreements that are eventually put in place a new opportunities rather than worry about the loss of current ones.