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vand

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  1. Like
    vand got a reaction from kimchi in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    You can never totally write off the stock market, but I do think there needs to be a period where stocks massively underperform for a generation to readdress the (very) long term equilibrium. Stocks, and paper assets in general, have been the main benefactor of 50 years of fiat money and the bond megabubble. I don't know if we're still approaching the top, at the top or just past the top, but I am pretty sure that we are far closer to the end of this period in monetary history than we are to the start of it.
  2. Like
    vand reacted to sg86 in How do you track your stack?   
    SQLite database, lots of flexibility
     
  3. Like
    vand reacted to Pipers in Silver indicating potential price falls for both metals   
    Vand you are quite right to point this out (bull market theory),
    KDave has pointed us to a Christopher Aaron article (who is usually a Gold Bull) who is trying to predict the future with with the help of historical chart or form. Something we all do, it is how we read the charts and remember we only have the past to predict the future.    I think Christopher Aaron must of done a lot of research before putting this article out as he is not preaching to his congregation on this and it comes across as a watch out this may happen, rather than you can make so much if you carry on the same and gold/ silver is going to make big profits which you get a lot of with some article writers though not with Christopher A. 
    Gold vs commodities   IMO Gold is expensive compared to commodities, that includes copper, silver, platinum this does not mean the other metals will increase in value it could mean all the metals could decrease in real terms.  It is a possibility one has to take into account .  Gold is a safe haven play and is real money on a long term hold though you can lose money. Gold could increase in value or stay the same value while silver decreases all of this has to come into play.  Plus there is new mining technology that makes mining cheaper that is tricking down from the very big mines.  
    I am glad Christopher A put this article out, I will be watching the Gold/silver ratio closely             
  4. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Silver indicating potential price falls for both metals   
    Gold testing overhead resistance and leading the sector higher. 
    Chris A. is right to discuss the possibility of lower prices, but from my view we are still in the very early stages of a bull market. You can also make the argument that the GSR shows how unloved the PM sector is. People have very short memories - last time the GSR was up at these levels in early 2016 the following few months were very strong indeed. 
  5. Like
    vand got a reaction from kimchi in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    You can never totally write off the stock market, but I do think there needs to be a period where stocks massively underperform for a generation to readdress the (very) long term equilibrium. Stocks, and paper assets in general, have been the main benefactor of 50 years of fiat money and the bond megabubble. I don't know if we're still approaching the top, at the top or just past the top, but I am pretty sure that we are far closer to the end of this period in monetary history than we are to the start of it.
  6. Like
    vand reacted to MickB in Milk Spots   
    https://www.mint.ca/store/campaign/Mintshield-7700022?lang=en_CA
    The Royal Canadian Mint have (hopefully) eliminated milk spotting now.
  7. Thanks
    vand got a reaction from augur in What's going on in the COT?   
    Mike Maloney talk about this. Also look at AGE sales too. Sales have fallen off a cliff - PMs are now the ultimate contrarian play.
     
  8. Haha
    vand got a reaction from PansPurse in Platinum - who's buying?   
    Yes, you're correct. I was out by a factor of 1000. It's 16,000 tonnes of Pt in the world. 
    16tn of Pt could probably fit in your fridge
     
    Gold volume is about 160,000 tonnes.
     
  9. Confused
    vand got a reaction from ilovesilverireallydo in Platinum - who's buying?   
    The thing massively in Pt's favour is its scarcity.
    Pt is ten times rarer than gold; there has only ever been 16 metric tonnes of platinum mined throughout human history, a physical block of metal that would fit inside your kitchen.
    If the idea of holding physical PMs gains more mainstream acceptance then I can see the investment case for Pt gaining traction very quickly indeed. It would only take a tiny amount of the general population wanting to hold an oz of Pt for its scarcity to become its best feature. 
  10. Like
    vand reacted to PansPurse in Platinum - who's buying?   
    I guess a lot depends on timescale. Yes the phasing out of petrol vehicles will have an impact, but platinum is a really useful catalyst and other applications could well see dramatic growth over the next few decades. In particular, it forms a key component for many types of hydrogen fuel cells.
    But on that front, carbon nanomaterials could be very disruptive if/when they reach maturity.
    I'll probably pick some Pt up but that's partially just liking feeling something nice and dense in the hand
  11. Thanks
    vand got a reaction from Tn21 in Gold Miner Picks   
    Pipers has listed most of them here
    http://thesilverforum.com/topic/5192-gold-miner-picks/?page=2&tab=comments#comment-112005
     
    The key ones are GDX, which is major gold producers, and GDXJ which are smaller junior miners and explorers. 
    SIL is the Silver producers index which is also useful.
     
    GDX is generally 2-3 times as volatile as gold, GDXJ is more volatile and SIL is even more volatile.
  12. Like
    vand got a reaction from Tn21 in Gold Miner Picks   
    If you think that reading a few press releases or a online articles will make you a sufficient expert in gold miners that you are able to separate the wheat from the chaff then you are just kidding yourself. I doubt even Buffett could do it. Mining is a hugely precarious business where setback and disappointments are plentiful, and progress is made not in continual small steps but in big occasional leaps. It is better to just buy an ETF which will give you exposure to the whole sector. Ultimately being invested in miners is a leveraged play on the macroeconomics and price of the metal, and the ETFs do a more than adequate job of providing plenty of exposure. 
  13. Like
    vand got a reaction from augur in Platinum - who's buying?   
    hmm.. OK, that's pretty good, actually. I was under the impression it was more like 20-30% (which I guess it would be with UK VAT sellers).
    Definitely makes diversifying the stack with a few Oz of Pt a more than viable proposition.  Liquidity won't be great come resale, but this is very much a buy and hold idea.
  14. Like
    vand reacted to Bumble in Gold Miner Picks   
    Investing in junior miners is not for the faint-hearted. Their share prices are highly volatile and the liquidity is low. One event such as a natural disaster, or a government raising taxes, or a strike, could make a huge difference to the price.
    Also, bear in mind that there are several newsletter writers in this space with thousands of subscribers. It only takes one email from them that a share they previously tipped has now reached its target price and its time to sell, and the result can be a big fall in the share price because of all the selling. Unless you are willing to pay for a subscription yourself, it is easy to be on the wrong end.
    Evaluating miners is sufficiently hard that for most people you either want to be following a newsletter writer, or investing in a fund, such as GDXJ or SGDJ, in order to spread the risk.
  15. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Platinum - who's buying?   
    I like Pt as a speculative play but have no interest in acquiring physical. Trade the paper asset! The spreads will kill you.
    If you want a Pt coin then that's fine, but the premiums involved mean that it is not stacker-friendly.
     
  16. Like
    vand got a reaction from Silverhunter in Checking Your Silver Bullion   
    Rule #1 of stacking: Stay away from Ebay
    Rule #2 of stacking: See rule #1
  17. Like
    vand got a reaction from Silverhunter in Checking Your Silver Bullion   
    Rule #1 of stacking: Stay away from Ebay
    Rule #2 of stacking: See rule #1
  18. Like
    vand got a reaction from RichRock in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    The Fed has got your back.. until the USD gets crushed, at which point you're on your own mate.
     
    DOW 2% gap down on opening. The Bear is sharpening her claws. #BTFD is dead.
  19. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    Another BIG selloff today in the US. The rallies are getting sold off like clockwork now. This is very different behaviour to what we have been seeing since 2009.
     DJIA looks like its going to close at new lows, which will harden the case for bear market. We are also getting into seasonal period where stocks should be strongest. There is traditionally a lot of weakness over May-Oct. If that holds true again then stocks could get smashed over the summer.
     
  20. Like
    vand got a reaction from RichRock in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    They're probably right. Even the FTSE itself isn't horrendously expensive, its really the US that is most expensive.
    But the problem is that all equity markets broadly move in sync now, and the US leads everything else, so if and when it goes, everything else will follow. 
    Earnings are just one measure of course, you can also look at price to book, dividend etc, and by these I think they don't look that cheap.
     
  21. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Index fund vs other investments   
    You want an example of buying at the peak and waiting out for your returns? Look no futher than the FTSE!
    At the current price, the FTSE is STILL below it's 2000 peak. LOL. That's 18 years and counting. AND we're likely on the brink of another 30-40% decline.
    Yes, you can waffle on about the Nasdaq and S&P but we live in the UK, and most funds are UK based. 95% of passive UK investors will be buying the UK stock market.
     
    Many Japanese investors who bought the Nikkei in 1987 have died waiting for their return. Most investors who bought the market in 1929 died waiting for a real return. You get the idea. Buying at peaks is damaging to your wealth.
     
    @MrGeorge - You may think that you are able to outstay everyone else through a bear market, but by the very fact that you are unable to hold yourself from buying right now shows that you are unlikely to have the discipline to see through your convictions. You don't know how hard it is until you have skin in the game, especially when while there is some other hot investment where everyone else is making easy money.
  22. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?   
    Another BIG selloff today in the US. The rallies are getting sold off like clockwork now. This is very different behaviour to what we have been seeing since 2009.
     DJIA looks like its going to close at new lows, which will harden the case for bear market. We are also getting into seasonal period where stocks should be strongest. There is traditionally a lot of weakness over May-Oct. If that holds true again then stocks could get smashed over the summer.
     
  23. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Index fund vs other investments   
    MrGeorge.. you are quite hilarious
    You have obviously never been invested on the wrong side of a bear market. You lose money if you are invested in stocks and the stocks go down - can't be more simple than that.
    The function of Bear markets is to reset valuations, reflecting reduced appetite for risk and exchange of future income in return for increased current consumption, Those still prepared to forgo current consumption are thus rewarded with higher future return. It's time preference theory.
    The best way to take advantage of a bear market is to have capital waiting and ready to buy when prices are depressed, and you don't do that by being fully invested. If it was easy making money by buying stocks when the shoeshine boys are giving you tips then everyone would be rich.
     
  24. Like
    vand reacted to Bumble in Index fund vs other investments   
    10% aggregate annual return on an investment is highly optimistic. Just because it has worked out for stocks over the last 20 years does not give me any confidence that it will continue to do so. Few funds, even leveraged hedge funds, achieve this. Pension funds are allowed to assume 7.5% annual return and part of the reason so many are severely underfunded is because they are not achieving that rate.
    When you invest money in a conventional vehicle such as stocks or bonds, you are hoping for two main sources of return: the first is interest, the second is growth. The interest rate that you might currently get on safe investments ranges from 0% for Japanese or Swiss govt bonds, through 1.75% for US bonds, to maybe 4-5% for some high yielding equities. If you are getting higher rates than that, you are in junk bond territory, or are investing in stocks in companies that are effectively liquidating themselves through dividend payments. When it comes to growth, the prospects for higher return may seem better, but GDP growth is sluggish in the developed world: less than 3%.
    So with interest rates below 3% and economic growth rates below 3%, how is it possible to achieve returns above 3%? If you are an extraordinarily successful stock picker you might be able to beat the average, but an index fund cannot beat the average: it *is* the average. For a higher return, either you are taking a lot more risk then you think, or your investments are using leverage. If you buy stocks expecting better growth than the average rate of growth of the economy as a whole then you are effectively making a leveraged play on economic growth. You can expect your stocks to outperform on the way up and underperform on the way down.
    Stocks and bonds have both done extremely well in the last 10 years, but I am willing to attribute much of this to QE. Under QE, the central banks create money and buy bonds, which drives the price of bonds up. Investors like to balance their portfolios, so when their bonds go up a lot, they sell some and buy stocks and real estate. So the newly created money washes over into stocks and real estate and creates a bubble. The bubble could get even bigger, if central banks create even more money or reduce interest rates, but currently all the talk is about rate rises and quantitative tightening.
    On the whole, I would rather invest cautiously in the current environment. Hold stocks by all means, but have plenty of safe haven assets as well, such as precious metals. (This is not investment advice.)
  25. Like
    vand got a reaction from Pipers in Advice for a total beginner in stocks / shares   
    This is less than half the story. Yes, you can prove that "taking the best 10 days out of the last 40 years will halve your total returns" but that is a very, very narrow view. 
    consider:
    If Jonny X is the world's worst market timer then not only will he buy stocks near a market peak, but he is also duty-bound to sell them NOT AT BULL MARKET PEAKS, BUT AT BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS. This is what most clueless investors do. They not only buy stocks near peaks, but also crystalize their initial mistake by selling during the ensuring panic. This is what this brainless articles that advocate "don't worry about the timing" don't consider. 
     
    Most people who bought Fidelity Magellan LOST money... Despite being invested in the world's greatest growth fund during the world's greatest bull market. 
    You can literally have the greatest investment vehicle in the world and still lose money if you don't understand why your are invested in the first place.
    http://www.innovativewealth.com/wall-street-wisdom/individual-investors-bad-investing/
     
    Today's homework in light of this:  find the best return from a bull market peak to a bear market bottom over a 20 year time period.