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vand

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  1. Like
    vand got a reaction from Xander in Venezuelan Petro Cryptocurrency   
    All this tells me is that when a bent banana state like Venezuela believes that “going crypto” is the answer then I’m convinced that it is bubble thinking gone to the highest level.
    Venezuela.. you don’t need crypto, you just need to face economic reality.
  2. Like
    vand reacted to Stu in How much silver is too much silver ?   
    I acknowledge the point that silver can be difficult to store, but even in a tiny urban flat I think I could secrete 1000toz of the shinney stuff  around the place with reasonable peace of. Mind that little if any would be found. Get creative with the fabric of the house. Some behind plasterboard then retaped, in the back of old broken appliances in the loft, frozen in the stew, weights under large ornaments, he'll what about cuttlery, who would think that could be made of  silver! 
    Silver is so undervalued people believe in the paper price as its held for so long. Through the ages a skilled persons labour for a day has sat around a half Oz of silver, so in today's market about £6. Someday the price may revert to some semblance of equilibrium , keep stacking folks. Here's an interesting article to put it into perspective. 
    https://moneyweek.com/what-wages-in-ancient-athens-can-tell-us-about-the-silver-price-today/
     
  3. Like
    vand got a reaction from whitesands1 in The lifecycle of a sovereign country   
    We're in late stage 4. In the next downturn I see us moving into stage 5.
     
    I would add that this life cycle reflect the political cycle of a country, as it becomes more prosperous on the ingenuity and productivity of its individuals, the have nots of society vote themselves ever increasing claims on wealth they didn't earn, while the politicians play a game of increasing promises of everything to everyone and expecting someone else to pay for it, firstly with tax claims on other members of society, and then debt claims on the unborn.
  4. Like
    vand got a reaction from Xander in Venezuelan Petro Cryptocurrency   
    All this tells me is that when a bent banana state like Venezuela believes that “going crypto” is the answer then I’m convinced that it is bubble thinking gone to the highest level.
    Venezuela.. you don’t need crypto, you just need to face economic reality.
  5. Like
    vand got a reaction from Frenchie in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    The new commodities bull market is waking up.
    We are still in a long basing period, but the 2-year CRB chart looks awesome now. 
    There will be very good returns in the next decade for those who have been buying at these generational lows
  6. Like
    vand got a reaction from augur in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    One of the truisms of markets is that it doesn't really matter what "event" you pin on a price action. It happened. And it would have got there with or without whatever the latest geopolitical headline the press want to write up their stories with. There are much larger forces at work that move markets that what we can see or comprehend. 
     
  7. Like
    vand reacted to sixgun in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    Presumably interest rates will be increased.  Real interest rates fall in the face of inflation - negative bond yields look even less appealing. So we get selling in the bond market and then the edifice comes down........ Time to board the gold and silver train but most of us are already on board. $12 silver very doubtful and only on a chart, not in the real world - there is too much demand building up and the physical market is starting to determine price. 
  8. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    gentlemen's wager, sure
    your scenario is possible.. however I am focussing more on what I think is the best place to park your money for the next 20 years. I think we are seeing generational cheapness in commodities and they will re-evaluate many times over compared to stocks, bonds and real estate over the rest of my life..
  9. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    gentlemen's wager, sure
    your scenario is possible.. however I am focussing more on what I think is the best place to park your money for the next 20 years. I think we are seeing generational cheapness in commodities and they will re-evaluate many times over compared to stocks, bonds and real estate over the rest of my life..
  10. Like
    vand got a reaction from ilovesilverireallydo in Massive price rally on gold and silver today   
    The strength in the sector yesterday Could be a sign that the next move over the $1360 gold level is going to hold and be the one that finally propels us towards new multi-year highs.
    It fits in with the overall narrative; the CRB index has already broken to a new 3 year high and the chart is looking awesome
  11. Like
    vand got a reaction from NewMSmatist15 in Milk Spots   
    That's very interesting. Like many others I had stopped buying RCM stuff simply because of the milkspotting, but if they have proactively taken steps to eliminate it then I would be one of the first to start buying their stuff again. I think the classic Maple Leaf is one of the best designs, and their wildlife series are all well designed too.
  12. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Retirement...   
    Bumping the pension thread.
    I got my latest pension statement through and the pot is now up to 60k, of which 35k is cash, 10k in JPM commodities fund, and 15k in various other equity funds. The big cash position will be put to use when we are in the midst of the next bear market. Really happy with this.
     
    Between mine & employer contributions I'm putting in about 16% of my salary each year.   None us us know for sure what the future holds for pension funds, but I know I'd always rather have a bigger pot than not.. 
     
     
  13. Like
    vand got a reaction from ilovesilverireallydo in Silver lows, what's the evidence ?   
    I don't really think this tells us anything other than that most people don't have a clue what the metal cost of silver is. $5 is a throwaway amount so I'm not surprised that some people would trade it for a "mystery silver coin". If you up the stakes to, say, $100 and put up 10 or 15oz of silver I bet there are very few who would take the silver because $100 is non-trivial to your average pizza delivery guy.
  14. Like
    vand reacted to Oldun in Paying off the mortgage, one brick at a time   
    That is good discipline. Well done. We are about to rent out our place as my family needs a slightly bigger place for the next few years and we have found a place to rent in the nearby area for almost the same amount as what we will be getting in rent from our place. Owning your own property gives you much more flexibility. It also frees up the pennies to handle any unforeseen things that life throws at everyone sometimes.
    Good luck with the coming year and do update
  15. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Retirement...   
    Bumping the pension thread.
    I got my latest pension statement through and the pot is now up to 60k, of which 35k is cash, 10k in JPM commodities fund, and 15k in various other equity funds. The big cash position will be put to use when we are in the midst of the next bear market. Really happy with this.
     
    Between mine & employer contributions I'm putting in about 16% of my salary each year.   None us us know for sure what the future holds for pension funds, but I know I'd always rather have a bigger pot than not.. 
     
     
  16. Like
    vand reacted to Lowlow in Why nobody bought in the 1990's ...   
    I was very involved in precious metals investing in the 1990's and thought it might be instructive to make a post about it for people who are younger, especially since I see some similarities between now and then that are worth mentioning.
    So ... why didn't people buy in the 1990's when silver was trading around 6-7$us/oz, a price not seen since the 1950's, the same price you could have purchased silver for in the 1920's before the stock market crash ?  Didn't people know that was a cheap price ?  Why didn't people back the truck up and start loading comex bars on when the price was that low ?  How could they all be so stupid ?  Surely YOU would have been smarter, right ?
    I was there, and I remember many of the myriad reasons why.
    First, silver had been trending down for a LONG time.  Not unlike today, coming off of the highs of 2011 (7 year since), in the 1990's you were coming off of the highs of the stagflation of the 1980's which had seen an even higher price for silver than in 2011, except that to feel the full force of what it felt like then, imagine it is now 2028 and the price has dropped from approx 16.50$us down to 8$us, that is more of a parallel to the 1990's.  It had been 10 years from the highs in 1990, and by the time the decade was out it had been 20 years since the 1980 highs, a long time.
    Second, as so often happens in markets, silver had to touch an unmistakable low before it recovered and started into a bull market.  Throughout the 1990's silver would head fake rallies and look like it was about to break higher only to turn right around and bounce along its lows, but near the end of what might be called a bear market silver started trending into even lower territory, 8$us/oz, 7.50$us/oz, 7$us/oz, etc ... down down down, and it shook everyone out of the market as it fell.
    Third, people just gave up.  Even the biggest bulls in precious metals just finally capitulated and gave up as silver and gold broke new lows.  It had been 20 years of watching falling prices, and by the time the lows were put in stackers had had enough.  They had been tormented by tech investors who taunted them mercilessly, investors who were speculating in internet boom stocks and seeing 10, 20, 50% returns year over year in the Nasdaq, and as prices continued to bounce around going nowhere and then turned to new lows, precious metals investors were teetering on the edge of sanity.  They were yelling at each other whenever any newbie dared to say that silver or gold was going to rise in price, pointing out how they were sick of hearing about it, etc, times were tough.
    Fourth, and this is REALLY IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND, people understood the percentages.  You think, how could someone NOT buy silver at 8$us ?  Think about that, really think about it.  At 8$us, if silver drops 5% you're at 7.60$us/oz.  If you lose another 5% you're at 7.22$us/oz.  If you lose another 5% you're at 6.85$us/oz.  If you lose another 5% you're at 6.50$us/oz.  If you lose another 5% you're at 6.17$us/oz.  Etc.  PEOPLE WERE SICK OF LOSING MONEY.  No matter what the price was, there was always the possibility of losing another 5%, and that had happened over and over and over to people.  Even at what you perceive to be the lows, nobody had any assurance it wasn't going to go even lower, and there was a feeling in the air that you could lose 5% every 6 months FOREVER and never actually reach zero.
    Fifth, the opportunity costs.  THIS was also REALLY important because it was an argument a lot of people used.  Yes, they said, silver can't stay cheap forever, but it can stay cheap for a LONG time.  It had already been 10+ years from the 1980 high as the 1990's began, and by the end of the 1990's it had been 20 years.  Imagine what market psychology would be like if we trade out to 2028 and silver is back down around 8$us/oz and has been trading down and sideways for another decade.  There are so many other things that you could have invested in during that time, so many other opportunities that you could have taken advantage of with your money, and the argument that was in the air was that investing in silver and gold was just dead money, that it was just sitting there, doing nothing, and that while it was sitting there you weren't even beating inflation, much less making money in the bull market in equities like "everyone else".
    Sixth, related to the last one, was you weren't making any interest on your silver and gold.  It truly was a place to park money, dead money, it was just sitting there, not just sitting there but sitting there LOSING MONEY vs inflation (as the 1990's came to a close and the price trended even lower).  Even bonds were paying a few percent, but gold and silver ? Nothing.  Zero.  Zilch.  Even the most basic investing books talk about the magic of compound interest, and gold and silver were not even giving you that.
    Seventh, silver had established a range.  There were highs that it simply would not break through.  Every time it got close it would bounce off of those highs and plummet again towards its lows.  It did this so many times that many investors were convinced that it would do this forever, that the best they could ever hope for was to hold until the highs, sell, and buy again at a lower part of the range.  This bit of market psychology took hold and was in people's minds, it became a rule of thumb for traders, and that made it self-reinforcing.
    Eighth, it wasn't just gold and silver.  Commodities in general were bouncing around near their lows, oil especially.  There was no reason to think that gold and silver would take off when oil was languishing, and when the FED in the U.S. was lowering rates.  Don't fight the fed, that's what everyone said, and the word was that the FED intended to keep prices down to spur on economic growth for eternity, and that this would always keep commodity prices low.  By the late 1990's, oil was trading at under 20$us/barrel, and there was no fundamental reason to think the price would go up.
    Ninth, then, as today, were people talking about how silver and gold were industrial metals and not investment metals, that the age of silver and gold as money had passed.  Many people, even in the 1990's, believed this.  This combined with the usual cast of characters ... anarchists, hard money advocates, preppers (called survivalists then), etc, constantly talking about nuclear war, living through solar flares on nothing but the pallet full of corn flakes they had stored away, etc, gold and silver was seen even then as a historical anachronism, a relic of the past that was no longer needed except for making solar panels, etc.  Then, as now, people said that the age of hard money was over, that we had matured as a species beyond the need for such protection, and that fiat currency had won.  The belief, even then, was that deficits and the national debt was too high and that it would all come crashing down ... but that it hadn't, and as long as it didn't, it wouldn't, it is a self-reinforcing mindset.
    Tenth, related to all of the above, the technicals for gold and silver were horrible.  People were constantly throwing charts up showing gold and silver trending down, banging its head on trend lines, trading to new lows, etc.  None of the charts looked good, it all looked like it was consolidating into a trading pattern and that it would trade lower to eternity.  Even on the rare occasion it broke out, it would be a head fake and fall again.  It was hard to make a case using charts that precious metals would ever recover.
    Eleventh, miners were going out of business left and right.  You might think this would cause people to believe that the price was going to then go up because of scarcity, and some people made that argument, but many did not.  Many investors saw this as proof positive that the price was never going to recover, that the banks weren't supporting the miners, that miners would only mine silver as a consequence of mining other materials, etc.  This one isn't as clear cut because there were people on both sides of this issue, but many people felt this was a negative indicator for the future price and a lot of arguing and back and forth was centered around this issue.
    Twelfth, bank selling.  Throughout the 1990's banks were selling gold.  There were constant rumors that banks were suppressing the price of silver and gold and that they were selling their gold inventories to keep the price down.  Hardly a month went by that some bank wasn't making an announcement about selling a tonne here or there, and it was a constant string of this kind of bad news that weighed on the minds of gold and silver investors who were convinced that the banks had it out for them.
    Thirteenth, related to miners going out of business was the supply demand argument, and MANY investors were concerned that one of the primary uses of silver was up until then had been its use in polaroid film was falling off because of the invention of digital cameras.  Many don't know this, but silver was a primary ingredient in some camera films and a lot of silver was used for this purpose.  This argument went further and said that the demand for silver was not growing as fast as the supply, and it was related to this bank selling, people were of a mindset that even when demand was high that the banks had enough silver in the vaults to sell to cover any shortfalls.  Whether this was true or not, many investors talked about it and believed it.
    So how did investors miss such a great buying opportunity when gold and silver were at historic lows in the 1990's ?  You almost had to be there and suffer through it to understand, but hopefully some of the above lets you have a little taste of what it was like.  I'm sure I could write another 10 reasons in addition to the above for why it sucked so bad, but I think you get the idea, it sucked pretty bad.  Stackers and bugs have never had an easy time of it - when its at its lows, everyone says you're a conspiracy crazy, and when its at its highs you're a hoarder, you really just can't win.  But there were a lot of seemingly legitimate reasons to be concerned in the 1990's.  Most investors DID feel that at some point the price would go north and people would be rewarded, but they had no idea when that would be, and it was horrible waiting for it.  Even when gold and silver eventually started to move, a lot of investors weren't convinced, even people who were actually holding gold and silver, many thought it was just another head fake.
    All of that said ... the one thing you never see in a 2000 year history of gold and silver ?  You never see gold and silver worth nothing, and investors knew that then as they do now.
  17. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Retirement...   
    Bumping the pension thread.
    I got my latest pension statement through and the pot is now up to 60k, of which 35k is cash, 10k in JPM commodities fund, and 15k in various other equity funds. The big cash position will be put to use when we are in the midst of the next bear market. Really happy with this.
     
    Between mine & employer contributions I'm putting in about 16% of my salary each year.   None us us know for sure what the future holds for pension funds, but I know I'd always rather have a bigger pot than not.. 
     
     
  18. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Retirement...   
    Bumping the pension thread.
    I got my latest pension statement through and the pot is now up to 60k, of which 35k is cash, 10k in JPM commodities fund, and 15k in various other equity funds. The big cash position will be put to use when we are in the midst of the next bear market. Really happy with this.
     
    Between mine & employer contributions I'm putting in about 16% of my salary each year.   None us us know for sure what the future holds for pension funds, but I know I'd always rather have a bigger pot than not.. 
     
     
  19. Like
    vand reacted to sixgun in Gold Miner Picks   
    i listened to a Kitco interview last night - it was briefly mentioned that GOAU outperforms GDX as it is more selective in throwing out mining stock that does not perform as well. So if you want to hold a gold mining stock this looks a better bet. There are no option market in GOAU so i do not favour this stock over GDX.
    Personally i would hold GDX as i can sell CALL options against the stock i hold. For example i sold 22.5 CALL this week which will expire on Friday. i got 6 cents a share for these - so it is only $6 per contract but it lowers my base cost every week - a few cents a week adds up to a few dollars by the end of the year. 
    My favourite is to be short DUST. i do this by selling CALLS which get exercised and i end up selling DUST shares i do not have and so end up short. I get the premium for the CALLS and so get a better price for the stock. i then sell PUTS against this short stock and so get income every week. DUST is a 3x leveraged bearish stock in GDX. Leveraged stock show decay, so their price will slowly tend to zero when the price of GDX stays steady. 
    It might seem a bit complicated but it gives me 'extra alpha' by exploiting the decay in leveraged shares and selling options against the short stock.
  20. Like
    vand got a reaction from augur in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    One of the truisms of markets is that it doesn't really matter what "event" you pin on a price action. It happened. And it would have got there with or without whatever the latest geopolitical headline the press want to write up their stories with. There are much larger forces at work that move markets that what we can see or comprehend. 
     
  21. Like
    vand got a reaction from augur in Commodities Sector.. New Bull Phase is beginning   
    One of the truisms of markets is that it doesn't really matter what "event" you pin on a price action. It happened. And it would have got there with or without whatever the latest geopolitical headline the press want to write up their stories with. There are much larger forces at work that move markets that what we can see or comprehend. 
     
  22. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Silver lows, what's the evidence ?   
    We haven't gone below the 2015 lows so it supports the theory that we are at least not still in a bear market, in which case we must be in the early stages of a bull market or at the very least a long consolidation period. IMO the gold market supports this theory much better. Silver tends to lag gold during this early phase of the bull.. we saw this in 2001-2004.
    Regardless of whether we are in a bull or bear market, does it change the reason for holding physical PMs? My answer is no. I hold PMs because I like the safety blanket they provide in a profligate and unpredictable world. The day that I see governments and the public becoming truly fiscally responsible is likely the day I think that I do not want to hold more precious metals.
  23. Like
    vand got a reaction from Lowlow in Silver lows, what's the evidence ?   
    From a fundamental perspective, any economics textbook will tell you that production costs do NOT put a floor on the short-term price. In the long run production will contract until a new equilibrium is found. 
    That is why I prefer a technical-analysis approach. You can put support levels in and say that while price does not go below this level then I believe we are in an uptrend (bull market) and therefore work on the assumption that we have seen the lows. If the support is violated then it invalidates this theory. 
  24. Sad
    vand reacted to LittleJohnSilver in Gold Short Term Investment?   
    59 now, and you want to keep it till your nigh on 69? By then you probably won't be in any fit state to even enjoy it.

    Let's be honest here, you've got at best another 20-22 years before you get your VIP pass for the pearly gates. Average life span in the UK is roughly 80, so your clock is ticking my friend. Every year that passes is one more year you become weaker and less active. Why waste that time? Enjoy it now.
    I'm 40, and my stacking will end when I'm 55 tops no matter what, and whatever I've gained in value by that time is getting cashed in and used. Can't take it with you when your dead, so use it when you're alive (and able).
  25. Like
    vand got a reaction from Frenchie in Silver indicating potential price falls for both metals   
    Gold testing overhead resistance and leading the sector higher. 
    Chris A. is right to discuss the possibility of lower prices, but from my view we are still in the very early stages of a bull market. You can also make the argument that the GSR shows how unloved the PM sector is. People have very short memories - last time the GSR was up at these levels in early 2016 the following few months were very strong indeed.