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vand

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  1. Like
    vand got a reaction from Nick1368 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    You're right, a single session does not a correction make.. however we also have no way to know even if we're at the short term top.. gold and silver could easily just be regroup here ready for a push even higher past $2100 gold adn $30 silver.  The way virtually every gold commentator is now saying "long overdue correction is here" kinda makes me think that there's at least a small chance that we might not be done yet.
  2. Like
    vand got a reaction from AuricGoldfinger in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Man, I'm a bit gutted. Seeing how low gold had corrected I was gonna add some gold ETF this morning but the spot price zoomed up before 8am, so just sitting tight for now. I don't think this correction is over by any means - I think its just getting started. Failed retest of the highs is quite likely imo.
  3. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Man, I'm a bit gutted. Seeing how low gold had corrected I was gonna add some gold ETF this morning but the spot price zoomed up before 8am, so just sitting tight for now. I don't think this correction is over by any means - I think its just getting started. Failed retest of the highs is quite likely imo.
  4. Like
    vand got a reaction from GoldenPhil in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Man, I'm a bit gutted. Seeing how low gold had corrected I was gonna add some gold ETF this morning but the spot price zoomed up before 8am, so just sitting tight for now. I don't think this correction is over by any means - I think its just getting started. Failed retest of the highs is quite likely imo.
  5. Like
    vand got a reaction from GrahamDiamond in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    The r-gold reading got to +26%, last week in USD and +22% in GBP, which is quite an extreme reading. I would be looking for it to fall back again to at least below 10%. That would probably take us back below $1800 and £1400.
  6. Like
    vand got a reaction from RedDragon77 in Silver Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only   
    Caution is still highly advised.
    Relative silver hit +65% overnight last Thursday. This was the most extreme reading since the 1987 spike, surpassing even the 2011 peak.  It has only surpassed this level on 2 occassions - 1980 and 1983.
    A correction is overdue and it could be bloody enough to shock many new silverbugs who have recently been conditioned to expect that prices only ever go up.
    https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/dictionary/relative-silver/
  7. Like
    vand got a reaction from GWL3 in Silver Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only   
    I once again advise caution here..
    Silver is current stretched as far above its 200dma (about 64%)  as it was at previous short term peaks during its early 2000s climb:
    Pullback is surely imminent. 

  8. Like
    vand got a reaction from KDave in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    The r-gold reading got to +26%, last week in USD and +22% in GBP, which is quite an extreme reading. I would be looking for it to fall back again to at least below 10%. That would probably take us back below $1800 and £1400.
  9. Like
    vand got a reaction from HerefordBullyun in Silver Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only   
    I once again advise caution here..
    Silver is current stretched as far above its 200dma (about 64%)  as it was at previous short term peaks during its early 2000s climb:
    Pullback is surely imminent. 

  10. Like
    vand reacted to Kman in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Another way to look at whats happening is the dollar just fell out of an almost decade long upward trend
    Silver just broke out of a multi-year trend
    Have multi year trends broken just to faff about for a month or two?
    This is silver (blue) overlayed on the dollar
    Who would bet on the dollar and silver crossing and going opposite ways like they did in 2011?
    They will also probably start the crossover with silver 50% higher than it was in 2011 
    If it makes the same % gains from $20 to 50 then it should be $30 to $75 
    Pie in the sky but fun to guess 

  11. Like
    vand got a reaction from MancunianStacker in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    Silver has gone into Wiley Coyote mode here and carried on going up when gold has fallen back today.  GSR now printing with a 69.x handle.
    Is this a case of the tail wagging the dog?
  12. Like
    vand got a reaction from dicker in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    31% away from the GBP all time highs. That actually feels doable withouta "years away" caveat.
  13. Like
    vand got a reaction from MancunianStacker in Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.   
    31% away from the GBP all time highs. That actually feels doable withouta "years away" caveat.
  14. Like
    vand reacted to KevjustKev in High value trade & collectible items?   
    If you  have the room guitars. Five of the nine hanging in my living room wall are worth more than I bought them for. The last one I flipped quickly cost £9, after I gave it a service and new strings (£5), sold it for £114, and it's not worth that amount. I've been doing it for 15-20 years, and I know what I need to look out for. A JV or SQ (very early made in Japan) Squier could well be up for £120-150, I know I can sell them for £400-600. 
     I did let a 1984 ES-335 go for £1200, bought it for £750. Now if I had kept til now £2250+ but hey
  15. Like
    vand got a reaction from Happypanda88 in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    Gary Savage (Smart Money Tracker) is one of the few traders who I bother paying attention to. 
    He says gold will go into a bubble phase after the correction has played out for the current upswing, in which gold should go to $7,000-$10,000
     
    That's some forecast. Not in terms of the size of the move (I've also maintained that a 500%+ trough to peak move should be expected in an "average" bull market) , but in the timeframe he's expecting it to play out.. within the next 18 months or so.  I though it would take a few years and only peak in the back half of this decade.
     
  16. Like
    vand got a reaction from FlorinCollector in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    Gary's timeframe would also roughly fit in with belangp's, who had a stab at it in this video:
     
  17. Like
    vand got a reaction from Booky586 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    I actually have some respect for Hulbert, who weighs in with his piece:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-is-a-foolish-place-to-put-your-money-right-now-if-you-check-the-facts-2020-08-07?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
     
    The underpinning of his argument is wrong though. He assumes that there is no reason for gold's real purchasing power to increase over time. But that is a naive assumption. Gold is good money, and good money benefits from increased economic prosperity in seeing its real purchasing power appreciate by 1-2% a year. 
    You don't need to own the stock of companies to benefit from the good things that companies do for us.   You just need to own good money which appreciates in real value as the beneficiary of ongoing productivity increases.


     
  18. Like
    vand got a reaction from MancunianStacker in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Well he's probably right in that we are seeing short term FOMO and those are the sort of johnny come lately buyers that don't understand what they're buying and so will dump it when it corrects 20%.
    But it's a good sign that we are nowhere near the greed phase. When mainstream financial writers say that everyone should put 20% into gold then that is when we need to start thinking about doing the opposite.
  19. Like
    vand got a reaction from kojak in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    I actually have some respect for Hulbert, who weighs in with his piece:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-is-a-foolish-place-to-put-your-money-right-now-if-you-check-the-facts-2020-08-07?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
     
    The underpinning of his argument is wrong though. He assumes that there is no reason for gold's real purchasing power to increase over time. But that is a naive assumption. Gold is good money, and good money benefits from increased economic prosperity in seeing its real purchasing power appreciate by 1-2% a year. 
    You don't need to own the stock of companies to benefit from the good things that companies do for us.   You just need to own good money which appreciates in real value as the beneficiary of ongoing productivity increases.


     
  20. Like
    vand got a reaction from dicker in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    Gary Savage (Smart Money Tracker) is one of the few traders who I bother paying attention to. 
    He says gold will go into a bubble phase after the correction has played out for the current upswing, in which gold should go to $7,000-$10,000
     
    That's some forecast. Not in terms of the size of the move (I've also maintained that a 500%+ trough to peak move should be expected in an "average" bull market) , but in the timeframe he's expecting it to play out.. within the next 18 months or so.  I though it would take a few years and only peak in the back half of this decade.
     
  21. Like
    vand got a reaction from The1GramMan in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    I actually have some respect for Hulbert, who weighs in with his piece:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-is-a-foolish-place-to-put-your-money-right-now-if-you-check-the-facts-2020-08-07?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
     
    The underpinning of his argument is wrong though. He assumes that there is no reason for gold's real purchasing power to increase over time. But that is a naive assumption. Gold is good money, and good money benefits from increased economic prosperity in seeing its real purchasing power appreciate by 1-2% a year. 
    You don't need to own the stock of companies to benefit from the good things that companies do for us.   You just need to own good money which appreciates in real value as the beneficiary of ongoing productivity increases.


     
  22. Like
    vand got a reaction from Booky586 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Well he's probably right in that we are seeing short term FOMO and those are the sort of johnny come lately buyers that don't understand what they're buying and so will dump it when it corrects 20%.
    But it's a good sign that we are nowhere near the greed phase. When mainstream financial writers say that everyone should put 20% into gold then that is when we need to start thinking about doing the opposite.
  23. Like
    vand got a reaction from The1GramMan in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Well he's probably right in that we are seeing short term FOMO and those are the sort of johnny come lately buyers that don't understand what they're buying and so will dump it when it corrects 20%.
    But it's a good sign that we are nowhere near the greed phase. When mainstream financial writers say that everyone should put 20% into gold then that is when we need to start thinking about doing the opposite.
  24. Like
    vand got a reaction from HerefordBullyun in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Well he's probably right in that we are seeing short term FOMO and those are the sort of johnny come lately buyers that don't understand what they're buying and so will dump it when it corrects 20%.
    But it's a good sign that we are nowhere near the greed phase. When mainstream financial writers say that everyone should put 20% into gold then that is when we need to start thinking about doing the opposite.
  25. Like
    vand got a reaction from Oldun in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    Well he's probably right in that we are seeing short term FOMO and those are the sort of johnny come lately buyers that don't understand what they're buying and so will dump it when it corrects 20%.
    But it's a good sign that we are nowhere near the greed phase. When mainstream financial writers say that everyone should put 20% into gold then that is when we need to start thinking about doing the opposite.
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