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vand

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vand last won the day on May 14 2019

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  1. Once again the PP stands up amidst the carnage: https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/03/23/asset-allocation-in-the-most-painful-month/
  2. Yes. Tracker Funds and ETFs are excellent ways to gain exposure to the overall market.
  3. To be fair to the profession fund managers, a huge problem for them is that they that during crashes the public are panicked and want to get out of the market, so they sell their holdings in the fund, which then forces the fund to sell its underlying shares in order to meet redemptions. So while they may want to be a buyer during a crash they have no other option but to liquidate and join in the selling. Incidentally this a big reason why Warren Buffett structured Berkshire as an openly traded company, it behaves like an investment trust and trades at a ratio to net assets, he isn't forced to sell anything when the market drops which allows him to execute his contrarian investment strategy.
  4. On a time-weighted basis my whole portfolio was down about -21% at its worst, but this was the opportunity I have waiting for to put my cash pile to work, and right now with the 'bounce of the last few days (FTSE has done +18% since the bottom!) I'm sitting back at about -11%. On a money-weighted basis it's looking even better, down about -8% due to new cashflows in. Many people who held too many stocks will still be sitting on bigger losses, or, much worse, will have been scared out of their wits in the last couple of weeks and sold out, locking in the losses. That is why I always SO keen to emphasis asset allocation and risk management. Nobody who needs their money in the next 5 years should have more than about 50% of their wealth in stocks, but people who don't save enough have it invested too aggressively to chase a higher return to try to makeup for the shortfall. This very rarely ends well. To the OP question: Fund managers are humans, just like anyone else. Most of them can't beat the index because collectively, they ARE the index. That is why passive index trackers have become so popular. Personally I feel it is still possible for a skilled money manager to outperform the market on a risk adjusted basis, but only if you are prepared to be radically different, and that is not the cloth that most money managers are cut from.
  5. I think this is a very attractive level for buying the FTSE based on future returns as a function of current valuation.. but that said, please realise all the usual caveats - you should only invest within your circle of competence, and an expected returns must be viewed in relation to the risk that comes with it. As I have said countless times, study the effect of asset allocation yourself, and then you will become your own expert for your own situation. Wealth is built through knowledge, conviction and decisive action.. there are no easy shortcuts.
  6. This is a good'un: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-set-to-soar-by-the-millions-as-layoffs-surge-due-to-coronavirus-shutdowns-2020-03-25?mod=bnbh
  7. Is anyone still a believer? Because we are going to see an unbelieveable move in the price of silver soon. Remember the shakeout of 2008? Of course you don't. I don't blame you.. Silver was just another asset that got smashed as the economy went off the cliff, going from $20 to $8. Silver has ALWAYS been incredibly volatile. That is why I never advise anyone to put all their money, or even the majority of their money into silver or even anything else, even if you believe it is the best buy in town. We all know what happened in the aftermath of the financial crisis, as the economy reflated the PMs took off, and silver went all the way to $50. The world was a changed place. Today the world is a changed placed. Fundamentally, everything the soft-money critics had warned about is now happening. Unlimited bailouts, and helicopter money. Sovereign default is assured. It will take another few years for non PM holders to finally understand that you can't print your way out of a crisis. In this new world, money takes on a different meaning.
  8. Like I have said often, by far the #1 mistake that I see amongst the vast majority of stackers is not having a good amount of liquid CASH on hand to deal with situations that life throws at you. Unfortunately this is much more problematic amongst Gold/silver bugs than it is amongst the wider investing community because of their hatred the fiat system. In the last financial meltdown people who had a strong cash reserve behaved markedly differently and, in hindsight, more rationally than those without.
  9. Yep, could be. Been a while since I've sucked all this in. I think my general takeaway was that D3, K2 & Magnesium all work synergistically.
  10. Calcium is not a problem for nearly most people. Magnesium deficiency is a much more common problem, but also one that usually doesn't easily show up on blood tests as only a small fraction of magnesium stores in the body are in blood. Magnesium and Vit-D3 go hand in hand. A deficiency in one is often exacerbated in an deficiency in the other.
  11. The bargains are already right here, right now! Of course what is cheap can always get cheaper. The midcaps are interesting. They have been smashed in this crash; FTSE250 has seen a peak to trough 45% fall. My value-based strategy will still focus on high yielding bluechips, but I may dip my toes into some midcap recovery plays too.
  12. FTSE 100 briefly traded below 5000 in today's session. From the Mid-2018 high, that is a fall of 40% when you also adjust for inflation.
  13. If you want to lock in the current price then you can always go long on a spreadbet and hold the position until the new tax year rolls around and then you buy the shares and close the spreadbet position.
  14. Extraordinary market moves call for extraordinary measures in order to take advantage. Having already maxed out my ISA long ago, I'm now making use of my any pension carry-forward allowance that I can,, so I've flung an extra £7k into the market, split between: FTSE 100 tracker MKS.L LGEN.L More AV.L I also get an extra £1.7k in tax rebate that I would never have seen, so that is another major bonus. I literally cannot believe how cheap the FTSE and many of its component stocks are now trading. These are what I consider generational lows. If the market sells off much lower I will swap my small allocation of bonds for stocks.
  15. William Hill is a classic contrarian buy here, with CV hitting a lot of sporting events, their stock price has been absolutely smashed:
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