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vand

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  1. OK, we are now nominally flat YoY, and London is sliding hard! https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2019/Mar_Q1_2019.pdf Those chickens are coming home to roost: https://www.bridgingandcommercial.co.uk/article-desc-12003_the-slow-moving-train-wreck-has-entered-the-station
  2. I use Fidelity; some of the other popular platforms are Hargreaves Landsdown, AJ Bell, Interactive Investor
  3. I just use a spreadsheet to record most of my expenditure. I'm a pretty frugal person who has my spending well under control so I don't feel the need to record everything item by item, I just record rough totals as a matter of good record keeping.
  4. Make sure you are doing what is most tax efficient. What most people pursuing this path quickly realised is that you can massively increase your savings rate by deferring your income to a pension/SIPP and reclaiming a massive chunk of income tax... this lead me to whacking in £40k in the tax year just gone, and aiming to do the same over the course of 2019/20. Once you get your savings rate above above 50%, 60%, 70% the numbers start to get very interesting very fast. You are stepping far outside of the traditional work/retirement paradigm and look at it as "2-3 years of retirement bought for every year worked". Not saying this is easy, but it's certainly achievable for many middle-income earners just by being super smart with their money.
  5. To misquote Master Yoda: If into Ebay you look, only pain will you find.
  6. It's almost enough to turn you into a laissez faire capitalist.
  7. Another reason why it's a good idea to diversify your PM exposure and hold some via ETF inside a tax shielded wrapper.
  8. In my view the Pt/Pd ratio should really have bottomed in 2015 when it was 1.5 and bounced almost back to 2.0.... but then the VW emissions scandal came along and extended the ratio the next 3 years to the downside, a further fall from roughly ~1.8 down a to bottom of about ~0.55. Recent price action suggests that this is going revert back towards to the mean..
  9. Here are the model's readings since Dec 15. Contrary to your somewhat dismissive approach, it would have seen you accumulating just as much gold as silver over this period: Jul-15 SILVER Aug-15 SILVER Sep-15 GOLD Oct-15 SILVER Nov-15 SILVER Dec-15 SILVER Jan-16 SILVER Feb-16 SILVER Mar-16 SILVER Apr-16 GOLD May-16 SILVER Jun-16 GOLD Jul-16 GOLD Aug-16 GOLD Sep-16 GOLD Oct-16 GOLD Nov-16 GOLD Dec-16 GOLD Jan-17 GOLD Feb-17 GOLD Mar-17 GOLD Apr-17 GOLD May-17 GOLD Jun-17 GOLD Jul-17 GOLD Aug-17 GOLD Sep-17 GOLD Oct-17 GOLD Nov-17 GOLD Dec-17 GOLD Jan-18 GOLD Feb-18 SILVER Mar-18 SILVER Apr-18 SILVER May-18 GOLD Jun-18 GOLD Jul-18 GOLD Aug-18 SILVER Sep-18 SILVER Oct-18 SILVER Nov-18 SILVER Dec-18 SILVER Jan-19 GOLD Feb-19 SILVER Mar-19 SILVER But don't worry, when the GSR drips below 80 I'll be sure to tear your strategy to shreds too and laugh that I was accumulating silver when it was 3% cheaper in relative terms.. and I might even mention my Platinum has pissed over your gold since I've been buying it
  10. When I ran various parameters through my model: - A "cost averaging" netted you about 40% over 50 years vs a dumb "fixed amount" strategy for the same dollar outlay - Buying Silver over gold would have netted you a further 60%, as gold has outperformed silver over the long run - Buying ONLY silver or gold when the GSR reached a historical extreme would NOT have seen you do better than a pure gold-only strategy. This is perhaps most troubling for silverbugs to get their head around. But it's true; buying only gold would have performed just as well as buying the "cheapest" metal over time, since the GSR has continually been moving higher and an "extreme" price of 65 back in 1987 has become a "normal" price today. In summary then, a discipline "cost-average gold only" approach would have been the optimal strategy if you only accumulated and never did any swapping However, the long term returns take a massive jump if you are willing to 3 features: - Willingness to swap one metal for the other at historical extremes added another 350% increase to the portfolio over 50 years - Scaling up or scaling down your buying depending on the price of gold relative to average wages added a further 20% - Implementing long term hedging when the portfolio passes a a certain drawdown threshold to protect from further downside adds up to another 44% these last 2 points are for more advanced active management and cross over into asset allocation strategies
  11. Interesting question. My model says that we are "close but not quite". Based on my historical accumulation model with a rolling 71 month GSR average and swapping metals whenever the GSR moves 2.3 standard deviations away from the mean, you should swap all gold for silver if and when the GSR reaches 88.9. Conversely, swap all silver for gold if and when the GSR falls below 57.2. This model has only generated 11 swap signals in the past 50 years, and if you had acted upon them you would now have somewhere between 6-8 times as much metal than a pure cost-averaging accumulation strategy. However, it does not account for transaction costs, so perhaps more realistically 4-5 times as much metal if you are swapping the physical stuff. Added 0 minutes later... Visual summary of model's swap signals: Perhaps the most significant thing that has changed in the last few years is that with the relatively high GSR sustained over the last 5 years, the "swap silver for gold" boundary has significantly climbed, so you should be prepared to to do the opposite swap somewhat earlier than previous. This is a bit sobering for all those who are hoping silver will regain 20:1 GSR, but that is what the model says. 20:1 but a pipedream right now, and we may not even see the old 2011 GSR peak being challenged. The spread between the 2 swap boundaries of of 57 - 89 is actually quite a significant narrowing of the range, and reflects the continual relative stability of the GSR. I do expect that if and when the bull market gets going, the volatility will pick and and so hence the swap boundaries will once more begin to get pushed out.
  12. Didn't realise this bull just recently turned 10! Happy Birthday! https://www.investopedia.com/market-milestones-as-the-bull-market-turns-10-4588903 If it can keep holding above the Dec low over the next 3 months it will become the longest on record. Gotta admire the sheer resilience on display, albeit with copious amounts of help from the central banks and PPT.
  13. The Bear market is well and truly over now. SHCOMP +30% since bottoming at the start of the year and in fact stands at fresh 1yr high. Probably not worth chasing the market higher in the short term, but this has much more upside potential over the coming years. a bull market will tend to take out old highs, which should make the 2015 bubble peak at 5200 a long term target. I don't have direct access, but I hold funds in Emerging markets and Asia which are heavily weighted in China. Remember.. buy bombed out markets everyone else is reviled by a market and can only see downside, for there is only one way left for them to go. China Platinum (or you could just "stick to buying sovs lads" )
  14. Yes, I am not chasing the price higher at this stage. Happy to sit on what I have accumulated over the last 8 months, and then add on further pullback. I still think this is a 5-10 year hold. Hopefully recent action is just the bottom getting put in.