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vand

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  1. vand

    Platinum - who's buying?

    Platinum is approaching a historic undervaluation against Palladium. When this has happened historically, Pt has then gone on to outperform Palladium by a large margin over following 5-10 years as the cycle turned. From the scatterplots, you can see that Platinum has not failed to outperform Palladium over 5 years any time the ratio was below 1.95, and did not fail to outperform over the following 10 years whenever the ratio was below 2.6! It may seem difficult to believe possible given the fortunes of both metals in the last few years, but at the current ratio of about 0.63, I fully expect Platinum to at least double or triple its value against Palladium over a next 5-10 year timeframe. Also worthy of note is that unlike the more familiar Gold/Silver ratio, there is no clear long term trend in the Pt/Pld ratio that favours either metal, so it is entirely reasonable to expect a move back towards the old highs some point in the future.
  2. vand

    Platinum - who's buying?

    Finally got around to Platinum:Palladium analysis: Here is the long term Pt:Pld ratio: Pt/Pld vs 5 yr performance scatter plot: Pt/Pld vs 10yr performance scatter plot:
  3. vand

    Chinese Silver Pandas

    Yep, premium appreciation has been zero % since they went to 30g coins and increased the mintage. They're just an expensive govt BU coin now. There are far too many competing series now... makes is more difficult for any series to mark itself out for collectable potential
  4. vand

    Which silver is best to buy when price is so low?

    I don't think there's really a right or wrong because it comes down to personal preference, but I do think that if you're primarily a stacker then its important that your stack has a large base of low premium silver that you are happy to liquidate without too much effort if and when you think the time is right. This is easier to do when spot price is bumping around near the bottom as most of us hope it is right now, so take advantage of the current situation. I think its more difficult if you start out buying higher premium coins and then try fill in the base of your stack later on, when prices might have moved higher. Building the pyramid from the base up is always easier and makes more sense.
  5. vand

    Sold all my gold, got stung

    Let's see.. give up your hedge because your hedge is doing its job. Nope. Not even dreaming about it.
  6. vand

    Platinum - who's buying?

    http://www.moneyandtrading.com/blog/2018/9/14/platinum-the-worlds-most-precious-metal-jerry-robinson-and-tom-cloud
  7. Yes, I can easily see it exceeding the all time high of $2000+. A tripling of price is par for the course in any bull market worth its salt, in fact I would say that would be on the low side. 500%-1000% very doable given a 10-15 year bull market. The current price doldrums are a necessary part of creating the mine closures and supply shortages that will drive the next bull market. Auto-manufacturers will be switching back to platinum now to take advantage of its discount price, just as they switch from platinum to palladium when the palladium was the cheap metal.
  8. Yesterday's action has set us up for a short term bounce, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the traditional December rally play out now. If it doesn't manage a decent bounce, then I think the market is in real trouble.
  9. Food for thought... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4215998-next-bear-will-bad?page=5 Stock investing is not as easy as it has seemed in recent years. It is also important to remember the following almost always overlooked reality that underlies the U.S. stock market. Remove 21 years from stock market history – the 16-year period from 1950 to 1965 when the U.S. was the unrivaled economic superpower of the free world as the rest of the planet rebuilt itself from World War II, and the 5-year period from 1995 to 1999 during the manic rise of the tech bubble, and the U.S. stock market has provided investors with a real annualized rate of return of less than 2%.
  10. The fact that big business and govt want to stop you using cash is itself a very good reason to use it whereever possible, imo! Even if you are not into conspiracy and big brother theories studies show that people are willing to pay more when buying something when using card than when they are handing over hard cash. I always carry cash and like to pay restaurant bills in cash. My friends tend to express surprise that I still use such a barbaric payment method, but to me cash is very, very important. It's also easier to settle the bill without having to faff around that the payment machine, which is a particularly cumbersome ritual of group dining.
  11. vand

    Palladium.

    I would be vary wary of palladium. If you study the history of palladium you will see that it is the "odd one out". It seems to operate on its own cycle which is out of sync with the standard gold/silver/platinum cycle. eg, between 1982 - 1984 it tripled in price while the others were very supressed. It bottomed in late 1996 at $117 and had already tripled by the last few months of that decade which is when it is generally accepted the gold bear market bottomed and the new bull market was born, then fell and lost half its value up until 2005 while the other PMs were making solid annual gains in the early years of that bull market. OTOH that could make it a good metal to hold to compliment the others to smooth out portfolio returns. However I would say that now is not the time you want to be buying palladium. It's had its run, much more downside potential than further upside imo.
  12. Today is quickly turning into another bloodbath. VIX has spiked.. lots of fear in the markets now.
  13. The FTSE itself is only a few % away from entering that favoured definition of a bear market being a 20% fall Other indexes such as the DAX are already there.
  14. This bull market is dying. Russell 2000 now in breach of Q1 lows:
  15. vand

    Sold all my gold, got stung

    I don't think its a case of just doing the opposite of what most people are doing. After all, it is the belief and the behaviour of the masses that drive markets in big trends, not those of contrarian. You have to run with the masses during the main phase of the market and even towards the start of the end, but you want to get out and eventually do the opposite of the masses towards the middle of the end and definitely towards the end of the end Contrarian are usually right in their belief, but wrong in their timing, and they usually are far too early in taking up their opposing positions.