@PipersI completely understand your point of view. As regard to commodities they tend to go though cycles. Benner did pretty good research in that regard and then W D Gann also proposed long term cycles. Both of them proposed that these long cycles of demand and supply never get interrupted.
I personally think that deflation is going to occur most certainly but the investor mood is indicating an interest towards US Dollar. The DXY chart I shared has almost 34 years data , and there seems a clear shift of sentiment. So I positively think that US Dollar is going to go higher (although Trump administration is opposing it) which will drive the prices of Gold low.
Also when bad news do not make the prices go high it is another sign , e.g the beginning of Afghan war rose the prices up, but the Pakistan India border dispute had no impact on the price of Gold.
GBP is going to fall (according to my forecast ) which is fore telling that Brexit deals are not going to good for UK, and if that fall in GBP do not push the prices of Gold up that will be another sign that negative news are not impacting on price of Gold.
With Unemployment rates at lowest levels in States ,hourly wages rising to pretty good rates, and States pulling out of Afghan war (will help a lot in decreasing the spending), talks of getting a good deal from China, it looks Mr Trump is trying to cut expenses and make some money .I think these fundamental factors will push the USD even higher probably in 120 ish , which will be the main fundamental cause of Gold and Silver going down.
I appreciate that you conveyed your points nicely. Stay connected.