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KDave

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  1. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Roy in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    10 year US bond is creeping up, likely the FED will be along to smash some more QE in soon. 
    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
    Sure oil might drop further, or it might not. What is the downside now you reckon? Risk/reward downside vs upside must be in favour on the charts now surely?  
    I can't help myself I just keep buying, Shell earlier this month for sub £9, never thought I would see it, today I have bought a few more BP for £2. Payday I was looking for some more Total, even with French dividend tax the yield is decent and its the best one of the majors imo. I think as with the sovereigns we were buying back in the day, in a few years we will look back at these prices and think it unbelievable. But who knows! 
  2. Like
    KDave got a reaction from HighlandTiger in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    10 year US bond is creeping up, likely the FED will be along to smash some more QE in soon. 
    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
    Sure oil might drop further, or it might not. What is the downside now you reckon? Risk/reward downside vs upside must be in favour on the charts now surely?  
    I can't help myself I just keep buying, Shell earlier this month for sub £9, never thought I would see it, today I have bought a few more BP for £2. Payday I was looking for some more Total, even with French dividend tax the yield is decent and its the best one of the majors imo. I think as with the sovereigns we were buying back in the day, in a few years we will look back at these prices and think it unbelievable. But who knows! 
  3. Like
    KDave reacted to Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar
    27th - BP 29th - Shell 30th - Exxon 30th  - Chevron @KDave I'm only negative on oil for the near future (unless something fundamentally changes), I just don't think we've found the bottom yet but time will tell 
  4. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Then people are betting the wrong way, as Biden is not going to win the election 
    Oil stocks will continue to be hated, it is political, fashionable, moral even. Once cashflow is rolling in people will want to buy oil stocks regardless. I read that NEST the UK biggest pension fund is no longer investing in oil and gas, another massive contrarian indicator.
    Demand growth in energy is the easiest thing to see, as is the lack of supply. If we want to go full windmill in the UK, it is going to take a lot of energy to get there. 
  5. Like
    KDave got a reaction from HerculeHolmes in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    This should be positive for the share price naturally, and there is never a more sensible time for buy backs than at the lows. This is the kind of action you would expect from good management.
  6. Like
    KDave got a reaction from HerculeHolmes in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Thanks for highlighting this, I like the look of APF from the 2020 AGM slides and looking through the royalties page on the website. I will do a bit more digging. My first thought for its performance is sentiment, caught up in the same wave of irrationality as the rest of the energy stocks but it appears well diversified. They say in the slides they are not making any more investments into coal, which perhaps like BP saying it will move away from oil has had the same effect on investors who have sold to look elsewhere for someone who will invest in coal. Coking coal is used exclusively for steel production? If so I don't understand the move away from it, we are going to need more not less over the next decade. 

  7. Like
    KDave reacted to Stu in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Would the 5million share buy back have any bearing? (Albeit , announces 25 Sept, genuine question)
  8. Thanks
    KDave reacted to Bumble in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    On London, I own The Renewable Infrastructure Group (TRIG.L), which hasn't performed particularly well, but it pays a nice dividend. On Nasdaq you might care to check out Clearway Energy (CWEN) and Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP). If you like royalty companies, check out RE Royalties (RE.V).
  9. Thanks
    KDave reacted to Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Wind
    Vestas Wind Systems - VWS Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy - SGRE Solar
    Canadian Solar - CSIQ Enphase energy - ENPH First Solar - FSLR Vivint Solar - VSLR Solaredge technologies- SEDG Ormat technologies  - ORA Sunrun inc - RUN Xinyi Solar - 0968.HK (manufactures solar glass) Utility
    Nextera - NEE (does solar and windfarms I think but supplies the energy as a utility company) None UK, I think the windfarms are EU, Xinyi is Hong Kong and rest North American
  10. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Maybe they have not bottomed, maybe they have, who knows mate. The idea was not to try catch the bottom it was to build exposure to sectors that will do well in the industrial cycle. All year I have been saying it, telecoms, energy, mining, while the market hated on them and bought tech, Tesla, Apple, etc. Now the sectors get some action, is it the market wising up or is it as the article says, new entrants seeing value in 25 year lows and taking a punt on a bounce back, I would expect the latter. Which means as you say there could be more downside in the short term, I was hoping for a few more months of buying in oil I really like Total and had missed it until recently. We will see. 
    I am hearing calls for oil to be $50+ by year end, that would not be the best case in my view as the best returns will come from a true shake out in the oil industry, killing off shale with sub $40 oil for a period of months. BP can break even on $35 a barrel, shell is aiming for $30. Imagine break even at $30 a barrel when oil is at $80-$100 end of 2021, no new entrants coming into the market (because oil is dead right) CAPEX massively reduced, where are all those profits going? Hopefully not all into windmills  most of it will go to share holders via buy backs and dividends but we will see. 
    I don't think the market is buying oil for the reasons we have been exploring here, it is bargain hunting and gambling on a bounce back but who knows, once the stock is bought for a punt it can easily turn into an investment if circumstances turn positive, lets hope not for my desired position in Total's sake.
    May I ask what are the green stocks you are looking at please anything UK based?  
  11. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Derv in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Maybe they have not bottomed, maybe they have, who knows mate. The idea was not to try catch the bottom it was to build exposure to sectors that will do well in the industrial cycle. All year I have been saying it, telecoms, energy, mining, while the market hated on them and bought tech, Tesla, Apple, etc. Now the sectors get some action, is it the market wising up or is it as the article says, new entrants seeing value in 25 year lows and taking a punt on a bounce back, I would expect the latter. Which means as you say there could be more downside in the short term, I was hoping for a few more months of buying in oil I really like Total and had missed it until recently. We will see. 
    I am hearing calls for oil to be $50+ by year end, that would not be the best case in my view as the best returns will come from a true shake out in the oil industry, killing off shale with sub $40 oil for a period of months. BP can break even on $35 a barrel, shell is aiming for $30. Imagine break even at $30 a barrel when oil is at $80-$100 end of 2021, no new entrants coming into the market (because oil is dead right) CAPEX massively reduced, where are all those profits going? Hopefully not all into windmills  most of it will go to share holders via buy backs and dividends but we will see. 
    I don't think the market is buying oil for the reasons we have been exploring here, it is bargain hunting and gambling on a bounce back but who knows, once the stock is bought for a punt it can easily turn into an investment if circumstances turn positive, lets hope not for my desired position in Total's sake.
    May I ask what are the green stocks you are looking at please anything UK based?  
  12. Like
    KDave got a reaction from HerculeHolmes in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Maybe they have not bottomed, maybe they have, who knows mate. The idea was not to try catch the bottom it was to build exposure to sectors that will do well in the industrial cycle. All year I have been saying it, telecoms, energy, mining, while the market hated on them and bought tech, Tesla, Apple, etc. Now the sectors get some action, is it the market wising up or is it as the article says, new entrants seeing value in 25 year lows and taking a punt on a bounce back, I would expect the latter. Which means as you say there could be more downside in the short term, I was hoping for a few more months of buying in oil I really like Total and had missed it until recently. We will see. 
    I am hearing calls for oil to be $50+ by year end, that would not be the best case in my view as the best returns will come from a true shake out in the oil industry, killing off shale with sub $40 oil for a period of months. BP can break even on $35 a barrel, shell is aiming for $30. Imagine break even at $30 a barrel when oil is at $80-$100 end of 2021, no new entrants coming into the market (because oil is dead right) CAPEX massively reduced, where are all those profits going? Hopefully not all into windmills  most of it will go to share holders via buy backs and dividends but we will see. 
    I don't think the market is buying oil for the reasons we have been exploring here, it is bargain hunting and gambling on a bounce back but who knows, once the stock is bought for a punt it can easily turn into an investment if circumstances turn positive, lets hope not for my desired position in Total's sake.
    May I ask what are the green stocks you are looking at please anything UK based?  
  13. Super Thanks
    KDave got a reaction from AndrewSL76 in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    I have no idea what the market will price RR at post placing because I have done no work as to what the company is worth, but for a short term trade, 150p per share today bought at 101 last week is a decent return if cashing out. If you bought based on the share price as a trade then consider your options before 27th October, but if you bought because you like the company long term then short term share price movement is less important.
    Given that 3 shares today are worth 450p today, with new issues coming in at a discount of 32p per share (320p), 13 / 770 = 59p per share post recapitalising? So the market should open on 27th October around that price but who knows honestly mate, it could do anything and will likely move up and down like a yoyo between now and then (27th). If you have not researched the company yet you need to look through the balance sheets to see what its worth against a few metrics, work out how much value is behind each share and see where you think it is in regards to over/under priced. 
  14. Thanks
    KDave reacted to Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    My guess would be the dollar has bottomed out, it's going to break to the upside within the next month or two, in the meantime it will move sideways and gold will be stable sideways along with it until  it drops; If it establishes itself back above $1912 flush that prediction down the toilet
    1912 1880 1850 1810 1750 There's more horizontal levels but these seems to be the major ones as well as the red trend lines 

  15. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Interesting post thanks, yes I am not confident enough to trade either, I tried my hand at elliot wave a couple of years ago with a forum member but could not get to grips with it in regards to consistency, effectively for me it was no better than choosing higher or lower on a slot machine but with limited downside with the correct set up. Its more an art form, a systematic art form. I follow a couple of commentators that do trade (chris A) and some that do not, I have more respect for the ones who do trade because of the additional factors involved in that process which makes it a glorious event when you win but it hurts when they get it wrong on the short term. 
    This is very interesting it should tell you something important about the nature of oil, as like the monetary nature of gold. The monetary nature of oil. And they say the petro dollar is dead. I see the loose correlation is in the trend, yet late 2019 the correlation is strangely exact, around September is it (QE began at the FED). That could be an indication in itself perhaps (monetary). Oil does need to drop a bit more to regain true correlation (and to kill of shale) and then move sideways for the rest of the year to form a bottom with rates, then we have both technical and fundamental reasons to reverse the trend. Keep an eye on that one, good spot. Or I could be talking rubbish and the worst is coming - perhaps negative rates are on the way and oil can go to zero to correlate (deflationary collapse). 
  16. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Derv in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Interesting post thanks, yes I am not confident enough to trade either, I tried my hand at elliot wave a couple of years ago with a forum member but could not get to grips with it in regards to consistency, effectively for me it was no better than choosing higher or lower on a slot machine but with limited downside with the correct set up. Its more an art form, a systematic art form. I follow a couple of commentators that do trade (chris A) and some that do not, I have more respect for the ones who do trade because of the additional factors involved in that process which makes it a glorious event when you win but it hurts when they get it wrong on the short term. 
    This is very interesting it should tell you something important about the nature of oil, as like the monetary nature of gold. The monetary nature of oil. And they say the petro dollar is dead. I see the loose correlation is in the trend, yet late 2019 the correlation is strangely exact, around September is it (QE began at the FED). That could be an indication in itself perhaps (monetary). Oil does need to drop a bit more to regain true correlation (and to kill of shale) and then move sideways for the rest of the year to form a bottom with rates, then we have both technical and fundamental reasons to reverse the trend. Keep an eye on that one, good spot. Or I could be talking rubbish and the worst is coming - perhaps negative rates are on the way and oil can go to zero to correlate (deflationary collapse). 
  17. Like
    KDave reacted to Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    No  I was thinking more that would have been a nice move to hedge an existing position, I don't want to try and trade equities atm, too nervous of what they will do after/pre market and open percents below stop loss
    I'm still learning and things are quite volatile, copper and illumina didn't go as planned but holding GGP is going well so I tell myself why feel any pressure to try and make money elsewhere, better to observe and predict and if I'm getting it right more than not and the markets calm down then I will get back into trying to be clever with trading 
    For now I only have a small position selling eur/usd 
    The 893 is where the price was when I screenshot and I have a line at 890 just below because that was around the bottom in March (on the 8 hour timeframe anyway, going down to minutes it might have been a bit lower)
    Not sure if that will be an important area or not but drawn a line just in case
    Indeed but important levels do develop and give you clear indications if it's short term positive/negative 
    The recent rejection at 10 for shell was a textbook display of testing former support and finding it as resistance before continuing down, I guessed slightly wrong at what resistance but still 
    Gold failing to get above the previous ATH and closing the week below $1900 was negative too as an example, I think that's going to come back down now but we shall see
    I've put together something here, it's oil demand (bars), Shell annual gross profit (red) and oil price (black). It might be slightly misaligned because i had to lay charts from different sources over one another

     
    I don't know how bad 10% down really is? in 2013 91mb fairly healthy for shell (albeit with oil at ~$100pb), I guess if oil companies are able to produce 10% more than the demand they can flood the world with oil if they want and keep the price low, that's what was happening earlier in the year right?
    I also don't know if shell still have the same market share as they did 10 years ago, what % of world demand are they supplying now vs then
    One major thing regarding oil price is it's close relationship to bond yields, QE forces down bond yields, this is oil (green) with 30 year bond yields (red)
    How is oil price going to go up any meaningful amount? if you know they correlate and you know there's one one way for yields to go
     

     
  18. Like
    KDave reacted to JunkBond in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    I will buy more RR if we see sub 100.  Also going to buy more BP if it gets to 200.
  19. Super Thanks
    KDave got a reaction from AndrewSL76 in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Well done if calculations are right £1.06 is the equivalent pre-placement/recapitalising price of 32p so you have bought at a lower price than new investment coming in on 27th October.
  20. Like
    KDave reacted to AndrewSL76 in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    I bought in at 101.3.......if the news is correct re the 10 for 3 at 32p then I am happy with that.
  21. Like
    KDave reacted to AndrewSL76 in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    So.......I have a number of price alerts for RR and have ignored all of them until just now.......my last one was 105. The price is currently 103.6 and falling.............the news re the 32p is all of a sudden VERY interesting. I am going in when it hits 102.50 I may regret this because it could fall down to 90 at this rate.....................................
  22. Like
    KDave got a reaction from JunkBond in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Shell at £8.96 I could not resist. No gold for me this month. 
  23. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Roy in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Shell at £8.96 I could not resist. No gold for me this month. 
  24. Like
    KDave got a reaction from Kman in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    What is the 80p target based on? I would not worry too much about fool articles, you can read 2 or 3 of them and get opposite opinions from each, then head to seeking alpha and get the same, then go on the silver forum.... opinions are everywhere. 
    Like I say I need to have a look into the balance sheets and compare to its peers in the sector, that would be BAE and Boeing off the top of my head (defence/engineering), its something I will look at next year. You can't have everything there are often more opportunities than cash.
  25. Like
    KDave reacted to HGr in My first trade - Shell / BP   
    Today I bought some BP and Shell, I thought I wouldn't see anything as low as March again. Will double down if they go much lower. Had some Shell around 13.50 a few months ago, but I got a bad feeling and sold it at 13ish to buy gold instead, happy I did that. 
    Rolls Royce also sucks right now! So I bought some ☺️
     
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