Nick1368

https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/gold--everything-is-correlated-to-1-11082020
The global narrative is that the Fed will stay put through 2022 – leaving “free money” on the table. This is now supported by the incoming fiscal spending which will be north of $1.5 trillion when the deal is reached, taking the deficit to a magical 27% of GDP!
 
Over the last couple of days we have noticed how minute changes to real rates unearth the excessive leverage of the market. For example, gold tanked from $2060 to $1997 an ounce due to a 7-8 bps move against it in real rates. Yes, the positioning is extended, but so are the Fed and government responses, which are both guaranteed to increase in size.
 
So, if 7/8 bps creates this kind of havoc, imagine what would happen if we have an inflation boost, or if the Fed is insistent on not letting interest rates become negative. Failing to do so will increase real rates, which is the actual consequence of expanding debt – i.e. negative growth and inflation as debt increases.
 
Furthermore, as everything is correlated to 1, we are about to violate the very premise on which most of the positioning is done: falling real rates and expanding Federal reserve balance sheet. The Fed balance sheet is falling and real rates are rising, meaning that we are in total violation of the facts and the narrative, which temporarily to me at least is a massive warning sign and a time to consider buying some more puts to safeguard the gains.
 

It must be that, I don’t think it was a coincidence that the vaccine announcement was made by  Putin and shortly after that gold price went down £70  

Old school Gold Bug saying “If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it.”

Don’t forget that the more gold you can buy in one go you’ll pay on average less for the gold content. 
For example you’ll pay less in terms of gold for a full sovereign than you will for a half sovereign or even 1 gram.
Just a tip but maybe some months save and buy as much as you can afford. But with the gold price the way it is maybe that’s not good advice anymore in these times. 🤷🏻‍♂️
Back on track I think @dicker prediction might be right of £1,500 by Christmas if it rises and keeps correcting itself to a new ‘norm’. Time will tell, indeed. 

Yeah at least another year, im just sorting mine out now lol
 
 

Best laid plans.  
I set my sights and budget on sensible regular monthly purchases and not forgo life's little luxuries.
I think I might get another few months out of these- what do you think?

Bread and circuses has officially arrived. Or is it “Let them eat cake ?”
And the interesting thing is that the usd is not in a bad shape at all, just a lower. I posted on another thread yesterday that gold could run to $2100 possibly $2120 on this move so whatvever that is in £. From there, professional traders might take some off the table and book paper profits. We shall see.

You could always sell the 1 grams for their higher premiums and then buy the bigger coins? Basically saving in gold rather than cash. As long as you get your original investment back you should be sitting pretty. Someone on here may want a few 1 gram bars, so you could offer x grams in exchange for a full sovereign (in your favour due to the higher premiums on 1 gram bars). 

Its also the paying down of debt is at record levels, people are actually looking at inveating, thinking yuppy years could be here when we're finally let out..theyhit sma,l spend with money coming in, the government wants us to spend but were hunkered down incase we lose it all....were saving change whioe they want us to spend hundreds...bad prediction on their part.

I think it will be  going up for as long as the money printing continues.
just look at the situation in the Uk, self employed people are getting cash grant ( free money ) , business owners are getting cash grant and no business rate to pay  ( free money ) , employed people are getting furlough salary ( free money and i know a few people who are furloughed and doing a some cash in hand jobs as well so they get two salaries but barely pay tax for one of them only), %50 discount to eat out introduced just recently.
what does all of this mean ? To me It means people have money to spend so demand for goods and services is going to increases and prices will accordingly increase too , which means the money in our pockets and bank accounts is losing its value and that results in massive increase in gold price because unlike money gold can’t be printed .
that’s the way I look at it, simple as that .
 

I went to university, studied a degree in Business, they didn't mention real money once. I then studied my Financial Planning Certificates and then my Diploma in FP and none of them mentioned real money or even gold except for a quick sentence about it being part of a large portfolio sometimes. I should have came straight out of school in 1996 and got a job in a bank!!
Learnt a lot about everything else including financing though, I suppose.
A degree means nothing unless it is Accountancy, Dentistry, Doctor, Lawyer and gets you a good guaranteed salary at the end of it and maybe into your own business after 5 years or so.
I feel sorry for the kids these days doing degrees in David Beckham or the Kardashians etc 🙄 
@Nick1368 well done on your own business. I started mine age 41, last year. Should’ve done it 20 years ago. Less reliant on a boss, especially with Covid-19 👍🏻 

Added 0 minutes later... I could live with that 👌 

I have been to university and they certainly don’t teach you about gold, silver or any other precious metals. 😂 
They just take all your money each year.

Dicker please don’t be offended as I didn’t mean no offence , obviously no one knows what the  future has to offer especially when it comes to the market, economy and precious Metals, we all have made so many  wrong predictions in the past .
it’s just insane to me how fast the price of gold is moving upwards, I’m a young investor, I’m 30 and have been investing in precious metals for over two years now, it blows my mind to see Upward movements like this in gold and I’m so happy that I have a good stack of gold now that the spot price is looking sexy .
just like you I love this forum too, it’s an amazing community, I’m a busy man with my business and don’t have social media accounts because I don’t have the time for it and I also believe it’s not good for my mental health but I love this forum, it’s a place of knowledge to me, I come here to educate myself as I have not been to university.

Dicker please don’t be offended as I didn’t mean no offence , obviously no one knows what the  future has to offer especially when it comes to the market, economy and precious Metals, we all have made so many  wrong predictions in the past .
it’s just insane to me how fast the price of gold is moving upwards, I’m a young investor, I’m 30 and have been investing in precious metals for over two years now, it blows my mind to see Upward movements like this in gold and I’m so happy that I have a good stack of gold now that the spot price is looking sexy .
just like you I love this forum too, it’s an amazing community, I’m a busy man with my business and don’t have social media accounts because I don’t have the time for it and I also believe it’s not good for my mental health but I love this forum, it’s a place of knowledge to me, I come here to educate myself as I have not been to university.

Hi Nick,
Absolutely none taken at all!  Its great to have people like you on here who are friendly and great fun.  
 
Keep up the banter and take care
Best 
Dicker

Im suprisedi havent heard on here about anyone jumping ship on their stashes, physical or paper...normally with a run like this some stackers or investors jump..then feel sad or the price drops like a stone and everyone else feels bad...but it seems not a twitter...all biting nails and toe bails off trying to predict but not a twitch.

And that’s why I love the forum.  Friendly people a good bit of good humoured mickey taking and a shared interest.  
 
All the best to you Nick and all others on the forum
Best
Dicker

Hi Nick. I always own up to my mistakes, and making this prediction was a big one!
 
Very happy to be wrong!
 
cheers
Dicker

Do you still remember your prediction of £1500 by Christmas? 🤣
I mean it was a sensible prediction when you made it about two weeks ago , but seriously who would’ve thought gold would be nearly £1600 an ounce in August 2020 .

Do you still remember your prediction of £1500 by Christmas? 🤣
I mean it was a sensible prediction when you made it about two weeks ago , but seriously who would’ve thought gold would be nearly £1600 an ounce in August 2020 .

Or next week, whichever comes sooner...lol.

Mine was £1,800 Christmas- New Year 2020. There’s still time 😂 

Do you still remember your prediction of £1500 by Christmas? 🤣
I mean it was a sensible prediction when you made it about two weeks ago , but seriously who would’ve thought gold would be nearly £1600 an ounce in August 2020 .

I stick to the line 'it is all media fluff', brush it off and put my head back in the Telegraph when Mrs Dicker mentions the price of gold in GBP.  Lovely wife, but boy does she want some new garden furniture which looks just like the set we already have.....

1572. I am keeping very very quiet about this as my wife has her eye on some new garden furniture.