Abyss

These are my charts of Gold on the 1 hour and the selling was not normal price action.. Normal price action clearly see on the charts for Gold back and forth... $90 smack down in price in less than 4 hours......

Are we sharing charts, please sir can I share my charts? I have the 1 hour chart of Gold as part of my list of instruments that I pay attention to all the time. Sometimes I go into the higher time frames only to reinforce my belief that Gold has a lot higher to go over the next 2-10 years. My current long term analysis (looking at the monthly chart) broke above all time high $2080 was rejected. Have three months downside potential (end of March 2024) then if these monthly candles have not broken below $1820 then we could have another attempt and breaking and clearing the all time high in which case my price target would be $2800 in the next two years (measured move from the impulse up). We could also have another attempt at the all time high and fail in which result prices moving between $1660 to 1760 over the course of the year. Establish support at these level then my price target would be $2575 but would take more time to achieve (5 years). This is the problem with technical analysis is that the data is always changing and your analysis has to change with it. Have a constantly moving target both at the price and time axis. I personally would love lots of turns and twists testing this level and that level on the hourly chart.

I am telling you it is impossible to predict with accuracy the long time chart of any financial instrument. The Gold chart is showing you it has lots of upside potential and as a result I will be holding onto my physical gold (for investment, safety, peace of mind it provides) into the long term. I want to see likes of CNBC, CNN, BBC talk about Gold hitting $3,000, visit my local hairdressers and hear the conversation that he bought some gold and so has some of his patrons. I will then know it is time to sell my physical Gold and move into other assets.

3 oz Gold 1.8% above spot from Chards Gold 1 oz Britannia Bullion Coin - Minty total price of £4,907.85 plus postage

https://www.chards.co.uk/gold-britannia-coin-minty/12650

Job done.

38 minutes ago, Kitalon said:

 I'm more concerned about realising a long term investment years from now than what a lump of gold actually feels like on in my hand. 😄

Million dollar question the future asset price of a financial instrument into the future is inherently uncertain especially in the current technological time living in today. I have been following the Tesla story / Optimus Gen 2 robot and the improvements made over the last three years from a man in a suit to the current technological state of the general purpose Tesla bot is unbelievable. A recent webcast with Sandy Munro (automotive engineer who specializes in machine tools and manufacturing) given unprecedented access to the Austin gigafactory during the release of the Cybertruck stated Tesla bot will be in useful production roles on the shop floor in the gigafactory by the end of this year. I believe by the end of the decade Tesla will be selling a general purpose robot first to businesses and then to consumers.

If this is the case then you have to ask yourself the major ramifications of a 30 trillion dollar labour market being disrupted by AI/general purpose robot. What will major UK home builders be selling a house for in 2030 when they have replaced all the bricklayers, joiners, plumbers and plasterers with Tesla bot that works 24/7 charges on cheap off peak electricity and not part of any union, does not require wages, holidays pensions and never reports in sick?

What will be the price of a barrel of oil, tonne of copper, an oz of Gold when the major mining/refining companies able to buy a Tesla bots and significantly increase production and at same time significantly reduce labour costs? Ramifications of what about to happened in the next six years (IMHO) is food for thought.

8 hours ago, Kitalon said:

I have not. It's only 2 months since I first saw a sovereign, let alone knew what it was or how to identify one. I now have 1 sovereign and 1 1/4 oz gold coin for comparison. Ironically I've touched neither because they're proof coins. Sigh! I suppose I'll just have to buy a 1oz coin now just to find out what all the fuss is about. 😄

No need to actually buy a 1 oz Gold coin to get a sense of how it feels. Pop into your local Jewellery shop and ask the staff if they have any 1 oz Gold bullion coin that you could possibly hold. State you interested in buying physical gold as a long term savings instead keeping your money in the bank. You would be surprised the number of staff who work in Jewellery shops who keenly keep an eye on the Gold price and also have some savings in physical Gold. One of the local Jewellery shops near me a member of staff is also a member on the Silver Forum and has helped me identify a few coins and determine some of the coins I have purchased are genuine as well. You would be surprised when pop into your local Greggs and buy a sandwich meal and give it to member of staff working at Jewellery shop the amount of help you can receive 😀.

This is the image that will forever be remembered when inflation runs out of control........ It lead to a change in Government in Germany to the Nazi party and then to World War 2.

A side note spoken with someone recently had a single 250 gram gold bar, 4 x 50 gram gold bars that were all stolen in a burglary. Took this individual a long time to accumulate that level of Gold (16 oz) had contents insurance but it did not cover and is completely out of pocket but subsequently had several more breaks ins into his house. Buying physical Gold be very conscientious of where you are going to be storing it for long term safety and security of the metal and your immediate family.

@Roy there was one point in time where started stacking sovereigns as well I believe at the time bought dozens of them from Harrington and Bryne running an offering (limited to 3 per order but free delivery) below spot price back in 2019 paid about £224 but had to opt out of the insane marketing material unless planning converting gas boiler to burn paper…

Lots of member on the forum also participated in the feeding frenzy. I did eventually sell all my sovereigns on the forum and continued to stack exclusively 1 oz Gold coins until the beastly collection had been completed…

Not reached my goal still in my early 40s want to double my stack size but I am in no rush to do so.

"Christmas cracker" after it turned out to be worth £1,462.

I am happy to buy 1 oz Gold Buffalo at that price all day long. I am unsure if BBC reported incorrectly on the value or if this is the value Scotland's Charity Air Ambulance received from the "coin shop" but they should have been paid at least 97% of spot £1,545.45...

$1,850 I think in 2024 at some point it will hit $2400 get everyone excited and lots of people jump onto the bandwagon and then works its way down to $1850 also I think it would be an excellent to buy after the market has flushed out the weaker hands.

5 hours ago, AaaGee said:

How far do people travel to their SD boxes? The nearest one to me looks like youd get mugged for a decent pair of trainers outside the building. And double yellows on the main road outside.

2nd nearest is a MetroBank (with a non functioning website).

10 minutes by car to the train station, 20 minutes by train to Manchester Piccadilly, plus another 15 minutes brisk walk or 40 minutes by car paying for NCP car parking. I am glad it takes some effort to visit the SD box otherwise you could view it as a piggy bank that you could dip into every so often rather than a permanent safe storage location holding generation wealth in.....

Unsure about London, but Manchester is fairly safe during daylight hours.

Don't listen to @Paul Silver is the best thing since slice bread. I had bought several thousand oz's of the stuff starting stacking it in 2018. I was buying

1 oz silver Maple Leaf 2016 SUPERMAN 15.64 €

2 oz silver QUEEN'S BEAST 35.18 €

10 oz silver Queen's Beasts 242.40 €

Perth Mint 1 oz silver 2017 MARVEL SPIDERMAN 21.38 €

From Goldsilver.be, the European Mint and group orders on the forum.

Obviously before VAT on Silver and I have sold my entire stack with the exception 60 oz when GameStop reddit community moved over to the silver short squeeze. People waiting for Silver to hit $50 oz I can recall certain coins (1oz Marvel Spiderman) sold for £70. In hindsight pure dumb luck and good timing when stacking Silver and my decision to exit my position and fully transition it into Gold.

Unless have a time machine to go back to 2018 @Paul is right, stack Gold, buy Silver as a hobby.

3 hours ago, JohnA1 said:

They are all clearly aligning their gold reserves, but what are the chances of a meaningful gold standard?

They are all used to printing with no abandon, how likely are they are to do a 180 degree turn voluntarily?

I have given up on ever in my lifetime seeing a Gold backed major reserve currency. The government can easily steal via a hidden stealth tax known as inflation why would they want to ever stop this scheme. Taxation without representation many years ago in 1775 after refusing to hear of the plight and concerns of the colonist due to unfair taxation from King George III they formed the Continental Army. Does not matter where you are in the world everyone has to pay this unfair stealth tax for the rest of your life....... Unless @JohnA1 steps up to the plate and form the new Continental Army...

But lets not forgot that it is always fun to try and buy gold while it is on a downward price spiral and time the markets (not advisable it is always better to average into long term position) but you certainly get a ego boost if you can get right. Right now spreads from Chards has the lowest premium on a newly released 1 oz Gold Britannia 2.5% above spot (not for 100 oz, but a single oz) I have ever seen in my lifetime. This should tell you that dealers having to reduce premiums to either compete or because demand is drying up due to higher prices. I am predicting Gold price heading towards $1600 oz once Hamas defeated, F16's delivered and more Ukraine territory liberated and inflation brought closer 2% most likely due to sustained higher interest rate plus a recession. Yes Gold long term hedge against inflation but why would I want to buy the metal after it has spiked $200 due to geopolitical reason I personally would rather wait and see what happens to price after returning to more normal market conditions.

All because I believe short term Gold headed lower does not imply I would be willing to sell any of my physical Gold, just to much risk at the present moment in time in the world, US elections 2024, possible further bank failures....

5 hours ago, Tn21 said:

@Abyss are you still stacking or did you call it a day once you reached the target on the QB?

Waiting to see if my sons gets into Manchester Grammar school, if not as a family migrate to USA. Continue stack Gold but unsure which side of the pond it will be done and regardless of location I want to keep the original QB stack, blood sweet and tears to accumulate that….. 

After QB stack was completed I did pause gold purchases.

Wow this brings back some memories....... Deja vu...... Almost like you are in the matrix....

11 hours ago, JamesH said:

Good discussion and interesting to see differing opinions. Have hopefully built a decent rep over the last 18 months and I myself started by sending a handful of items prior to payment to get things moving in the right direction. Now am able to enjoy receiving payment first and sending immediately the next day. Not had a single bad trade on the forum and the one buyer I had that was not 100% with what they received were made good as soon as I had an unblemished coin to replace the original one with. Love trading on TSF and feels safer to me than the likes of ebay

Hit the nail on the head, scammers have tried multiple times on eBay to defraud me (changed the delivery address after payment, obtained a brand new coin from myself and returned a fully scratched coin and obtained a refund. Trading on the Silver Forum taught me all the safety precautions need to take and early on when trading on the forum I was blown away with the communication and the quality packaging and service above and beyond from likes of Chards / Atkinson also help me up my game. Even now whenever I receive a high ticket valuable item (regardless of if it is a precious metal) I video record the unboxing process with proof of the date and time in the video in case something has gone wrong.

Think about this poor couple received a power bank instead of £800 iPhone when ordering directly from Apple UK unable to obtain a replacement/refund I bet if they had video evidence of the unboxing process they would not have to rely on their word alone. If this goes to a small court case it will be on the basis on the judge determining who is telling the truth, make the judges job easier, video record the unboxing process.....

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/couple-devastated-after-paying-800-28037497

7 hours ago, Skyhawk747 said:

Great reply Abyss and thanks...

So if you were me right now what you do? Hold off and wait for the GBP to strengthen or buy now?

I have never been able to time the right time to pull the trigger to purchase Gold. When I started to accumulate in 2016 I thought I had about 10 years where the gold price would be stuck below $1400 level and I had plenty of time to accumulate in hindsight I was just lucky. Look at the monthly chart of Gold on trading view (free for anyone to do so)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COMEX%3AGC1!

see triple top $2080 level. In my humble opinion the price Gold will slowly decline working its way towards $1700. I have a strong conviction the price leg created from $1625 to $ 2080 (monthly chart) will hold I would be looking to re-accumulate (confirmation obtained weekly chart) Gold between the price $1650 and $1700. As for the exchange rate £/$ sorry it is to hard to time both markets and pull the trigger for the purchase of Gold I have only looked at the price of Gold in $ and have purchased it based on that price.

But once you buy don't have any regrets and make sure your 10k is something that you can keep in Gold and not have to sell if something unexpected happened in life.

16 minutes ago, dicker said:

It’s a buyers market for sure - and yes…the good old days are now long gone.

Why are premiums lower?  Less demand?

FYI.. I did ask Chards several years ago why the premiums had increased so much and they replied

"In the last 18 months we've seen that the high demand for precious metals has not been met with supply, which has led to higher premiums for in-demand coins, like sovereigns and Britannias.
It's tough to say when and if we will be "back to normal" so we can't give a firm yes or no on that, unfortunately. We always aim to give customers the most competitive premiums out there, but fundamentally, it depends on the market."

Looks like the market conditions have returned to normal.