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Investack

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  1. Investack

    Hedging gold and silver downside risk

    Agree that we shouldn’t knee jerk to USD being the safe haven, but I would suggest one must look at things in a more global view. With Brexit, Italy, and Spain.... there’s no shortage of political pressure on the Euro. The other traditional option, JPY is in an even worse debt position than US but in a double whammy due to demographics. My argument is not that the US is in great shape, but rather that one must compare it to the other options as well.
  2. Investack

    Observations from a new’sh stacker

    I worked for a large competitor investment bank to JPM for many years (no longer). While I have no specific knowledge of their situation, I strongly suspect there is more to the ‘JPM hoarding story’ than what I’ve read online. I’m not saying it isn’t true, but there are a number of highly plausible (even more likely) explanations that are a function of the modern institutional investment/custodial eco system than the hoarding explanation that seems to have taken on a life of its own on the internet. My two cents.
  3. Investack

    Silver Premiums Seasonal?

    Great discussion from the last post with a mild debate erupting on technical vs fundamental analysis. Personally, I believe both are legitimate and required as I like to acquire as much information as possible with the goal of putting investment odds in my favor. Got curious as to whether there’s been any seasonality to bullion premiums vs silver spot prices. To model this, I took 1 oz American Eagles minus silver spot (in dollars) and looked at it through the lens below. To help explain, vertically you have years and horizontally you have months. This analysis goes back nearly 15 years and each cell shows the % change in the premium vs the previous month. How to interpret? Over the last ~15 years, in the month of February, premiums have shrunk 11 of the 15 observations. Conversely, in March, premiums on ASE’s have expanded in 11 of the 15 observations. You get the idea. My question: Do you see seasonality here? Momentum? Mean reversion? Would love to hear your views.
  4. Investack

    Observations from a new’sh stacker

    Hi all- I’m a fairly new stacker as I’ve recently synched up with the view on silver being cheap. As I’ve started down this road, I’ve enjoyed reading a lot of opinions and have formed a few of my own. In sharing, I hope to spark some great conversation. I’ve made some rookie mistakes and hoping to learn from them. In my mind, that means getting a clear view into the fundamental drivers of spot and the nature of how the precious metals physical markets actually work. As I’ve been studying this, I’ve come to a few initial opinions: - The enormous range of motivations behind stacking. While many seem highly sensible, in my personal opinion, some seem a bit more challenged when viewed in the context of historical data. I love data and facts so thought I might share some below. - The nature of the principal/dealer model employed by the dominant market makers in the bullion space. In my view, their pricing as it relates to spot (premiums) is consistent with other principal/dealer oriented markets (OTC markets like certain segments of bond markets for example). When spot prices hit new lows, they are naturally slow to mark the prices of their inventories down in hopes of a rebound (if I were them, I’d do the same thing). However, I have seen more ‘specials’ pop up through various venues though as some will always go into a bad market with a little too much inventory and need to move it. - How inefficient the physical bullion markets are. I’ve learned the hard way, but I’m amazed at how dealers will have wildly different pricing across different web platforms. In one sense, it’s fun to hunt down the deal so I’m not complaining, but rather amazed that the pricing disparity can be so dramatic. All that said, some might find the below interesting (need to update it though). I see lots of technical studies on the various forums, but fewer fundamental studies. Below you can see: -Global silver production (solid green) down from its high in 2016 but the rate of change moderating (blue panel underneath). -Silver prices close to 8 year lows (white) - US trade weighted dollar (orange) has rallied from 2011 low which corresponded with silver high water mark. This is one of several looks I’ve been taking into the fundamental picture. If y’all find it interesting and have thoughts, would love to hear. PS- I’m not an advising on this stuff but generally just curious about various markets and trying to learn!
  5. Investack

    Has APMEX Got Greedy ?

    What blows me away is the pricing they show on their direct site vs their ebay store. Check both as I’ve seen pretty large variation between the two. Sometimes ebay is cheaper through a deal and sometimes direct is cheaper.
  6. Investack

    Hello from U.S.

    Hi all- have been researching metals for a while now and hoping to get more involved and learn from people who know what they’re doing!