Bumble

Recently, the IMF published a working paper on the use of gold as international reserves. Working papers are just research in progress and do not represent any kind of official policy on the part of the IMF, but it is interesting that the IMF is following this. An interesting table from the report is this:

Recently, the IMF published a working paper on the use of gold as international reserves. Working papers are just research in progress and do not represent any kind of official policy on the part of the IMF, but it is interesting that the IMF is following this. An interesting table from the report is this:

Recently, the IMF published a working paper on the use of gold as international reserves. Working papers are just research in progress and do not represent any kind of official policy on the part of the IMF, but it is interesting that the IMF is following this. An interesting table from the report is this:

Recently, the IMF published a working paper on the use of gold as international reserves. Working papers are just research in progress and do not represent any kind of official policy on the part of the IMF, but it is interesting that the IMF is following this. An interesting table from the report is this:

Nobody has mentioned the ping test yet. Balance the coin on the tip of your finger and tap it gently with a key or another coin. It should give a nice clear ring. Fakes don't sound the same. If in doubt, try a smartphone app like Bullion Test - it will compare the ring frequencies with the ones it expects and tell you whether it is fake.

Stock performance for 2022...

The best trade was long energy / short tech. Buffett did OK with a 4% gain. ARKK crashed 63%. Crispin Odey's flagship European Inc hedge fund was up 150% on the year by betting against long-dated gilts.

Some perspectives:
1. This venture is attempting to create an entirely new currency to compete with existing ones. This is so ambitious that governments and central banks are likely to try to put a stop to it. The corporation may be based in friendly jurisdictions, but if major governments outlaw its use, or even just regulate it so heavily that it becomes too irksome to use, customers in most countries will not use it. Financial regulators are already gearing up to regulate cryptos. The cryptocurrency space will not remain a wild west indefinitely. The case for banning cryptos will be the same as that for banning cash: it is used by criminals, drug dealers, money launderers, terrorists, etc. Not a good argument, of course, but it carries weight with the ignorant.
2. At a minimum, regulations will require proof of identification, proof of source of funds, anti-money laundering provisions, and FATCA style disclosure requirements. Switzerland, Singapore and Lichtenstein may be sovereign states but they are coming under huge pressure to comply with regulations like these. Some financial institutions have avoided trading in cryptos precisely because they couldn't prove source of funds.
3. Price volatility may become an issue, as it has for other cryptos. Speculators in gold and silver have simpler ways to expose themselves, including leveraged vehicles. Users who just want to transact worldwide at low cost can use Litecoin or the Bitcoin lightning network. Yes, they're not backed by anything but confidence, but most users are unlikely to care: they'll go where the fees are lowest.
4. Cryptos generally are not ready for mass adoption because they are too awkward to use for the non-tech-savvy. You have to install wallet software on your computer and smartphone and learn how to make safe copies of your keys to cold storage. You also have to worry a lot more about security. One piece of malware and all your crypto has gone and is never coming back. Smartphones are completely and utterly insecure. They are designed to share information and that is what they do. You should never put any data on a smartphone that you would not wish the whole world to know. John McAfee has been working on the design of a secure smartphone, but it is likely to retail at $1000 or more. Most people do not know how to secure their computers adequately. This might be less of a problem for Kinesis, if it is centrally managed, but there still remains the issue of user authentication. With my bank, I need my card and PIN to log in to online services, and I have several other channels for authenticating myself if I need to. Without two factor authentication with physical tokens I would be reluctant to trust a transactional money system.
5. Gold backing is nice, but if there is a systemic financial collapse, governments might decide to ban all private ownership of gold. Even if the gold is safely stored in Switzerland or Singapore, it doesn't help me if I can't get it, and I am forced to sell it to the central bank at some nominal price.

Last year's predictions from Saxo didn't work out all that well.
A summary of this year's predictions is:
1. A fund set up by billionaires will create a trillion dollar project to develop new technologies for energy production.
2. President Macron will resign.
3. Gold will rise to $3000 per ounce and GDX will quadruple.
4. The EU will create its own unified armed forces.
5. A country will ban all meat production by 2030.
6. The UK will hold a referendum to reverse Brexit.
7. Price controls will be introduced to curb inflation.
8. OPEC+, China and India will withdraw from the IMF and create their own international trading currency and reserve asset.
9. Japan will fix the USD/JPY exchange rate at 200 while it overhauls its financial system.
10. OECD countries will clamp down on tax havens.
 

Last year's predictions from Saxo didn't work out all that well.
A summary of this year's predictions is:
1. A fund set up by billionaires will create a trillion dollar project to develop new technologies for energy production.
2. President Macron will resign.
3. Gold will rise to $3000 per ounce and GDX will quadruple.
4. The EU will create its own unified armed forces.
5. A country will ban all meat production by 2030.
6. The UK will hold a referendum to reverse Brexit.
7. Price controls will be introduced to curb inflation.
8. OPEC+, China and India will withdraw from the IMF and create their own international trading currency and reserve asset.
9. Japan will fix the USD/JPY exchange rate at 200 while it overhauls its financial system.
10. OECD countries will clamp down on tax havens.
 

Last year's predictions from Saxo didn't work out all that well.
A summary of this year's predictions is:
1. A fund set up by billionaires will create a trillion dollar project to develop new technologies for energy production.
2. President Macron will resign.
3. Gold will rise to $3000 per ounce and GDX will quadruple.
4. The EU will create its own unified armed forces.
5. A country will ban all meat production by 2030.
6. The UK will hold a referendum to reverse Brexit.
7. Price controls will be introduced to curb inflation.
8. OPEC+, China and India will withdraw from the IMF and create their own international trading currency and reserve asset.
9. Japan will fix the USD/JPY exchange rate at 200 while it overhauls its financial system.
10. OECD countries will clamp down on tax havens.
 

Last year's predictions from Saxo didn't work out all that well.
A summary of this year's predictions is:
1. A fund set up by billionaires will create a trillion dollar project to develop new technologies for energy production.
2. President Macron will resign.
3. Gold will rise to $3000 per ounce and GDX will quadruple.
4. The EU will create its own unified armed forces.
5. A country will ban all meat production by 2030.
6. The UK will hold a referendum to reverse Brexit.
7. Price controls will be introduced to curb inflation.
8. OPEC+, China and India will withdraw from the IMF and create their own international trading currency and reserve asset.
9. Japan will fix the USD/JPY exchange rate at 200 while it overhauls its financial system.
10. OECD countries will clamp down on tax havens.
 

This chart compares the cost of some common energy storage solutions (CAES is compressed air). For comparison, a Tesla Megapack currently works out at about $500 per kWh. What charts like this often don't show is that the cost of storing oil, which only requires a steel tank, works out at less than 1 cent per kWh. Astonishing: I had to check the numbers. Storing energy in batteries is about 30,000 times more expensive than storing it as oil. Or, to put it another way, one $2.4 million Tesla Megapack stores 3,900 kWh, which is the same as about two and a quarter barrels of oil, which can be stored for about 35 cents. 

Interestingly, the UK is one of the worst places in the world to try to generate solar power. Just too cloudy. For the benefit of Scottish readers, the sun is that yellow thing that occasionally appears in the sky and hurts your eyes when you gawp at it. 

The big drop in cryptos appears to be fallout from the crash in the FTX token, which is down 80%.
As to a breakout... one person's breakout is another person's resistance. The gold price has now punched through the upper Bollinger band, and this is likely to trigger algorithmic selling.

The big drop in cryptos appears to be fallout from the crash in the FTX token, which is down 80%.
As to a breakout... one person's breakout is another person's resistance. The gold price has now punched through the upper Bollinger band, and this is likely to trigger algorithmic selling.

The big drop in cryptos appears to be fallout from the crash in the FTX token, which is down 80%.
As to a breakout... one person's breakout is another person's resistance. The gold price has now punched through the upper Bollinger band, and this is likely to trigger algorithmic selling.

The big drop in cryptos appears to be fallout from the crash in the FTX token, which is down 80%.
As to a breakout... one person's breakout is another person's resistance. The gold price has now punched through the upper Bollinger band, and this is likely to trigger algorithmic selling.

The big drop in cryptos appears to be fallout from the crash in the FTX token, which is down 80%.
As to a breakout... one person's breakout is another person's resistance. The gold price has now punched through the upper Bollinger band, and this is likely to trigger algorithmic selling.

The big drop in cryptos appears to be fallout from the crash in the FTX token, which is down 80%.
As to a breakout... one person's breakout is another person's resistance. The gold price has now punched through the upper Bollinger band, and this is likely to trigger algorithmic selling.

I think there must be more to it than just employment figures, since these were available at the end of last week. It's also perhaps relevant that cryptos were crushed today: BTC down 12% and ETH down 17%. Maybe there was a panic sell out of crypto and into precious metals, though I'm not sure why. The other factor is the US elections, though the results won't be known for a few days. Sometimes market participants will react to exit polls.

I think there must be more to it than just employment figures, since these were available at the end of last week. It's also perhaps relevant that cryptos were crushed today: BTC down 12% and ETH down 17%. Maybe there was a panic sell out of crypto and into precious metals, though I'm not sure why. The other factor is the US elections, though the results won't be known for a few days. Sometimes market participants will react to exit polls.

I remember, back in 2009, thinking that the Zimbabwean $100 trillion note would become collectible, so I bought one on eBay for £5. They are now selling for about £150. I should have had more conviction and bought a whole bunch.