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Bumble

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  1. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from goldmember44 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    @goldmember I remember an interview with Peter Hug of Kitko, who is a professional trader, in which he recalled how back in 1979/80 he was trading gold for a firm in Toronto, and people would queue up in the street to buy gold coins. One day he looked out the window and saw their mailman in the queue and he turned to his assistant and said: that's the top, we should sell now. That was right on the peak in 1980. Similar things happened with Bitcoin in December 2017. I started to find articles in general interest magazines about this wonderful new craze called cryptocurrency. People on forums said they were borrowing money on their credit cards to buy Bitcoin. When things like that happen, the bubble is in and it's time to sell. You don't need to short, and you may miss the exact top, but there's no need to be greedy, just be long for the main part of the run-up.
  2. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from goldmember44 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    If you bought gold coins as a kind of insurance against governments screwing everything up, then you did well and you should continue to hold them. Selling them would be like selling your seat on the lifeboat of the Titanic. On the other hand, if you bought some gold assets with a view to making some profit, or at least preserving your worth, then you are in the tough position of having to judge whether a top has been reached. It is the same decision you face with any investment that goes up in value: do you let it run because it's doing well, or take profit? It is never bad to take some profit, but you may be able to do better if you can spot the signs of a bubble forming. When the proverbial shoe-shine boy tells you he is buying gold, or you see articles in non-financial magazines about gold, then it is time to get out.
  3. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from Caratacus in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    If you bought gold coins as a kind of insurance against governments screwing everything up, then you did well and you should continue to hold them. Selling them would be like selling your seat on the lifeboat of the Titanic. On the other hand, if you bought some gold assets with a view to making some profit, or at least preserving your worth, then you are in the tough position of having to judge whether a top has been reached. It is the same decision you face with any investment that goes up in value: do you let it run because it's doing well, or take profit? It is never bad to take some profit, but you may be able to do better if you can spot the signs of a bubble forming. When the proverbial shoe-shine boy tells you he is buying gold, or you see articles in non-financial magazines about gold, then it is time to get out.
  4. Thanks
    Bumble got a reaction from Pragmatist in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    If you bought gold coins as a kind of insurance against governments screwing everything up, then you did well and you should continue to hold them. Selling them would be like selling your seat on the lifeboat of the Titanic. On the other hand, if you bought some gold assets with a view to making some profit, or at least preserving your worth, then you are in the tough position of having to judge whether a top has been reached. It is the same decision you face with any investment that goes up in value: do you let it run because it's doing well, or take profit? It is never bad to take some profit, but you may be able to do better if you can spot the signs of a bubble forming. When the proverbial shoe-shine boy tells you he is buying gold, or you see articles in non-financial magazines about gold, then it is time to get out.
  5. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from 5huggy in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    If you bought gold coins as a kind of insurance against governments screwing everything up, then you did well and you should continue to hold them. Selling them would be like selling your seat on the lifeboat of the Titanic. On the other hand, if you bought some gold assets with a view to making some profit, or at least preserving your worth, then you are in the tough position of having to judge whether a top has been reached. It is the same decision you face with any investment that goes up in value: do you let it run because it's doing well, or take profit? It is never bad to take some profit, but you may be able to do better if you can spot the signs of a bubble forming. When the proverbial shoe-shine boy tells you he is buying gold, or you see articles in non-financial magazines about gold, then it is time to get out.
  6. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from Abyss in 2 kg nugget of gold found in Oz   
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7288687/Massive-2kg-gold-nugget-worth-hundreds-thousands-dollars-discovered-lucky-digger.html
  7. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from Paul in 2 kg nugget of gold found in Oz   
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7288687/Massive-2kg-gold-nugget-worth-hundreds-thousands-dollars-discovered-lucky-digger.html
  8. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from Serendipity in 2 kg nugget of gold found in Oz   
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7288687/Massive-2kg-gold-nugget-worth-hundreds-thousands-dollars-discovered-lucky-digger.html
  9. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from goldmember44 in Bonds have gone crazy   
    A popular meme of the present is that the next big financial blow-up will be mainly concerned with corporate bonds. Companies have been taking advantage of extremely low rates and borrowing vast amounts. This leads to the companies being downrated in their credit rating score. There has been a huge increase in BBB rated corporate debt in the last ten years. The gap between BBB and BB is the difference between investment grade and junk grade. Many investment funds, including pension funds, cannot invest in junk grade debt, so any company that is downgraded to BB triggers a forced selling, pushing the price down. In a recession, or even the expectation of a recession, companies will be desperate to avoid being downgraded to BB, so they will sell assets and slash dividends to keep their earnings up.
     

  10. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from Michal in Bonds have gone crazy   
    I don't think they are stealing from anyone. They are acting as a buyer of last resort for bonds that nobody else would buy at such inflated prices. By doing this, they are keeping interest rates very low and causing asset values to rise. It is bad because assets such as real estate become so expensive that people cannot afford them, and also because it enables companies to issue huge quantities of debt to buy back their own shares, which creates instability.
  11. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from KDave in Bonds have gone crazy   
    I don't think they are stealing from anyone. They are acting as a buyer of last resort for bonds that nobody else would buy at such inflated prices. By doing this, they are keeping interest rates very low and causing asset values to rise. It is bad because assets such as real estate become so expensive that people cannot afford them, and also because it enables companies to issue huge quantities of debt to buy back their own shares, which creates instability.
  12. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from MancunianStacker in Bonds have gone crazy   
    I don't think they are stealing from anyone. They are acting as a buyer of last resort for bonds that nobody else would buy at such inflated prices. By doing this, they are keeping interest rates very low and causing asset values to rise. It is bad because assets such as real estate become so expensive that people cannot afford them, and also because it enables companies to issue huge quantities of debt to buy back their own shares, which creates instability.
  13. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from MancunianStacker in Bonds have gone crazy   
    I can understand why you might buy a bond yielding 1% in the expectation that rates will drop to zero and so its value will increase, but not why you would buy one at -2.64% and hope to sell it if rates go even further negative. If rates go further into negative territory, people will just buy whatever tangible assets they can and this will send asset prices soaring. There is no value in owning bonds in such an environment.
    I can only suppose that the central banks themselves are the purchasers of these bonds. Having permanant negative interest rates is really a kind of debt jubilee by the back door.
  14. Thanks
    Bumble got a reaction from Tritoon01 in Silver being accumulated by a whale   
    There is an interesting recent article by Alasdair Macleod of Goldmoney in which he makes a case for believing that there is a whale accumulating large quantities of silver via futures contracts. He speculates that it is the PBOC securing a supply of silver for China.
  15. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from Zhorro in Bonds have gone crazy   
    The world of bonds just seems to get more and more crazy. According to Bloomberg and the FT, there is now more than $13 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds in the world.
    Nor is it just investment grade, sovereign bonds. There are now 14 euro-denominated junk bonds with negative yields.
    So now you have to pay for the privilege of buying bonds with a serious risk of default, and still have a guaranteed loss in the event that they do not default.
    The issue even extends to zero-coupon bonds. on 10 July Germany issued zero-coupon bonds and they were purchased at a premium of 2.64% over par. So now you can buy bonds with no dividend and be guaranteed to lose money whatever happens. I suppose this is an example of return-free risk.

    I was also amused to note that the article in Investopedia on "Can a bond have a negative yield?" was recently edited and updated, because the previous version said "It is unlikely that a bond will have a negative yield but there are a few rare exceptions". I even have an old economics textbook that assures me that negative interest rates are impossible.
     
  16. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from KDave in Bonds have gone crazy   
    I can understand why you might buy a bond yielding 1% in the expectation that rates will drop to zero and so its value will increase, but not why you would buy one at -2.64% and hope to sell it if rates go even further negative. If rates go further into negative territory, people will just buy whatever tangible assets they can and this will send asset prices soaring. There is no value in owning bonds in such an environment.
    I can only suppose that the central banks themselves are the purchasers of these bonds. Having permanant negative interest rates is really a kind of debt jubilee by the back door.
  17. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from goldmember44 in Bonds have gone crazy   
    The world of bonds just seems to get more and more crazy. According to Bloomberg and the FT, there is now more than $13 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds in the world.
    Nor is it just investment grade, sovereign bonds. There are now 14 euro-denominated junk bonds with negative yields.
    So now you have to pay for the privilege of buying bonds with a serious risk of default, and still have a guaranteed loss in the event that they do not default.
    The issue even extends to zero-coupon bonds. on 10 July Germany issued zero-coupon bonds and they were purchased at a premium of 2.64% over par. So now you can buy bonds with no dividend and be guaranteed to lose money whatever happens. I suppose this is an example of return-free risk.

    I was also amused to note that the article in Investopedia on "Can a bond have a negative yield?" was recently edited and updated, because the previous version said "It is unlikely that a bond will have a negative yield but there are a few rare exceptions". I even have an old economics textbook that assures me that negative interest rates are impossible.
     
  18. Thanks
    Bumble got a reaction from kimchi in Bonds have gone crazy   
    The world of bonds just seems to get more and more crazy. According to Bloomberg and the FT, there is now more than $13 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds in the world.
    Nor is it just investment grade, sovereign bonds. There are now 14 euro-denominated junk bonds with negative yields.
    So now you have to pay for the privilege of buying bonds with a serious risk of default, and still have a guaranteed loss in the event that they do not default.
    The issue even extends to zero-coupon bonds. on 10 July Germany issued zero-coupon bonds and they were purchased at a premium of 2.64% over par. So now you can buy bonds with no dividend and be guaranteed to lose money whatever happens. I suppose this is an example of return-free risk.

    I was also amused to note that the article in Investopedia on "Can a bond have a negative yield?" was recently edited and updated, because the previous version said "It is unlikely that a bond will have a negative yield but there are a few rare exceptions". I even have an old economics textbook that assures me that negative interest rates are impossible.
     
  19. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from vand in Retirement...   
    There is no guarantee of wages rising. Look at what is happening in Venezuela. It takes two weeks' worth of minimum wage to buy a dozen eggs. Having a job there will not guarantee you enough to eat, let alone afford anything else. Having hard currency or precious metals will save you, but only if you keep them out of the clutches of the government, and even then the best you can do is leave the country and set up somewhere else.
    If you have debt you may be lucky and see it inflate away. But again, it depends on the government. When the Weimar Republic experienced high inflation they passed a law allowing all debt to be inflation linked. Who is to say what might happen? If mortgage lenders are faced with the prospect of seeing their loans inflated away they may choose to call in all the loans so they can possess the properties.
    These are not situations anyone wants to be in. This is why owning precious metals is more a kind of insurance than a way to get rich.
  20. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from Tn21 in Will gold become unaffordable, if so, when? Opinions welcome.   
    Bear in mind that people are happy to buy gold jewelry at prices that are many multiples of the value of the gold that it contains. If someone is willing to pay £600 for a necklace that contains only £100 of gold, it won't matter much if the gold price doubles up. Jewelry is a much bigger market than coins and bars.
  21. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from goldmember44 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    It is not just a matter of billionaire investors. In the USA alone, there is some $15 trillion in 401k and IRA pension accounts. Very little of this is invested in gold because it has no yield and most investors don't understand gold as an investment. If investors woke up and decided to invest even 5% of their pension money in gold, this would create $750 billion worth of demand for gold. At current prices, this would equate to over 16,000 tonnes of gold. It would be a practical impossibility to procure this much gold. The price would probably have to rise tenfold in order to soak up $750 billion worth of demand. I'm not predicting a price rise this big will happen, but the scope for a huge increase in demand definitely exists.
  22. Like
    Bumble got a reaction from Zhorro in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    The tough decision now is to decide how much of the recent rise in the gold price is due to ongoing fundamental reasons to own gold, i.e. unsustainable debt, the threat of negative interest rates, the possibility of a global recession, price inflation, etc. and how much is due to current events: trade and tariff disputes, brexit, tankers being attacked, Game of Drones, etc.?
    If it is mostly the former, we could see gold continue to rise considerably. There are plenty of traders who don't care whether gold goes up or down - they will just trade the momentum. Also, gold is hugely underowned by retail investors - most investors have no gold at all in their savings - so there is plenty of scope for additional demand.
    If it is mostly the latter, we could see profit-taking and a sharp fall back if a trade deal is struck and tensions subside in the middle east.
    For myself, I am happy to keep accumulating. But if we see a classic bubble curve developing, there will come a time to bail.
  23. Thanks
    Bumble got a reaction from vand in High Yield Portfolio picks   
    If you are happy investing in tobacco, British American Tobacco, Imperial Brands, and Philip Morris pay excellent dividends.
    Another company to consider might be Swiss pharma giant Roche. It only pays 3%, but it is very reliable and its share price is denominated in CHF, so you may gain from the strong currency.
  24. Thanks
    Bumble got a reaction from goldmember44 in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    @HighlandTiger The USA has not threatened sanctions as such, but it has warned Germany that if it persists in buying gas from Russia rather than the USA, and if it attempts to bypass the sanctions against Iran, then the USA may withdraw its military protection from Germany and move its troops to Poland. Trade tariffs are another form of threat. The USA is trying to whip its allies into line, which is a relatively recent departure from previous policy.
  25. Thanks
    Bumble got a reaction from Draconicus in The robots are here...   
    Here is a video from Boston Dynamics showing off some of their robots.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JRV2Z1mr7M
    And here is an amusing spoof. I suppose this is how Terminator begins.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKjCWfuvYxQ