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  1. Bumble

    Is there any reason that gold keeps dropping?

    Here is an article claiming that the gold price is being managed against the SDR. https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/china-takes-control-of-gold.html?platform=hootsuite
  2. Bumble

    Is there any reason that gold keeps dropping?

    Bear in mind that gold demand is seasonal and these are the summer doldrums. The months in which gold usually rises are January and September, due mainly to the Chinese new year and the Indian wedding season. If we are experiencing a seasonal downturn, expect gold to rise towards the end of August and into September, then fall in November and December. If gold has not recovered to at least $1300 by the end of September, then it is not a seasonal downturn and something else is happening. Either way, this is not a bad time to buy a few more gold coins.
  3. Bumble

    Gold Value Historically

    One of the fun things about reading the Sherlock Holmes stories is the references to monetary values in the 1890s. Gold sovereign coins were still in circulation and were worth their face value of £1. A typical annual salary for a live-in governess was £60, while a salary of £100 per year was high: high enough to be able to afford foreign holidays. £350 per year was described as a gentleman's income, i.e. sufficient to run a large house in the country, probably with a small staff, such as a cook, maid and gardener. The gold sovereign itself is a good measure of value. Up until 1914 it was worth £1, while now it is £240. That gives a pretty good idea of how much the purchasing power of sterling has declined. Another interesting fact is that in 1971, when the Bretton-Woods system came to an end, the average house price in the UK was equal to about 250 Toz of gold, and it still is.
  4. Bumble

    Gold Monitoring Thread £ only

    Interesting chart:
  5. Bumble

    Kinesis Gold and Silver currency

    Andrew Maguire doesn't give any details, but reading between the lines it may be that the German customer he refers to was an owner of Xetra-Gold bonds. These bonds are similar to commodity ETFs like GLD in that they claim to be 100% backed by physical gold and they allow for delivery if a customer owns a sufficiently large holding. Xetra-Gold is issued by Deutsche Börse Commodities and Deutsche Bank is one of its partners. According to the Xetra-Gold website, customers do still have right of delivery and some make use of this facility. Usually with bonds of this kind, there are provisions in the small print that allow the fund to settle in cash if they choose, so refusing to hand over physical gold is not technically a default. On the other hand, if the customer owned allocated bars, i.e. the gold was his own property, that would be a serious issue. A bank could only legitimately refuse to return a client's property if they suspected criminal activity or if they were under orders from a regulator, a central bank or from law enforcement authorities. Andrew Maguire goes on to suggest that bullion banks are clamping down on withdrawals of gold in expectation of bank bail-ins. This may be true, though it is just a speculation. It does emphasise the importance of holding gold outside the banking system.
  6. The oil price surge today was caused by a large syncrude plant in Alberta being forced to shut down, losing over 300,000 bbl/day of production. It will lead to a drawdown in Canadian reserves, but not much more. Oil prices have been rising because of production cutbacks by Russia and the Saudis, together with a collapse in production in Venezuela and sanctions against Iran. Yes, there is room for prices to rise further, but it is best to temper bullish sentiment with the following considerations: 1. Russia and Saudi Arabia between them have enough swing production to make the price of oil go where they want. They appear to be targeting between $70 and $80. 2. There are a lot of marginally profitable shale producers who can open the taps if the price rises above $70. 3. Trump is likely to approve oil production in Alaska. 4. Iran doesn't need to sell oil to the west. China is happy to buy it and Iran is happy to accept yuan in payment. China is also buying Venezuelan oil. 5. Oil is not the only energy. Japan is starting to reboot its nuclear reactors. Renewables are constantly coming on stream. Electric cars will reduce demand for oil.
  7. The cost of mining varies enormously, depending on the price they are paying for electricity. The reason much mining is done in China is because they have cheap electricity. Here is an interesting video about a crypto mining operation in Iceland using geothermal energy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w095nDjvrfQ
  8. Bumble

    Storage of your stack

    A storage setup like this should be fine: Though of course you may decide you need some extra firepower:
  9. Bumble

    Storage of your stack

    If you browse around antique shops you can often find old wooden boxes of various sizes. I've come across everything from Victorian jewelry boxes to travel trunks.
  10. Crypto exchanges are not really comparable to banks. Banks engage in fractional reserve lending and so are vulnerable to bad debts and bank runs. Stress testing is a way of helping to ensure that banks can cope with the likely consequences of a recession or some other economic shock. Crypto exchanges do need to be regulated, because they are currently getting away with all kinds of bad practices that would be illegal for a securities broker. But the main issue is that people are mainly buying crypto as a speculative investment. They are not using it for transactions, but are just holding it on the exchange where they bought it, so they can sell it again when the price rises. This is completely insecure. It is like calling a coin shop, buying some gold coins and asking the shop to put your coins in a box under the counter for you. If the shop is burgled or a rogue employee helps themselves, you've lost your coins. If you buy any crypto you should transfer it off the exchange and onto an account you have created yourself with a wallet. Of course, the fact that you have to do this is one of the reasons that crypto is not ready for general use among the public at large.
  11. That video is 5 days old and the BTC price has fallen more than 10% since then. I'm dubious about people who claim to have inside knowledge about what big investors are planning to do. I have a little BTC and ETH just in case, but I won't be buying more until I see the next stage of a bubble frenzy actually taking place.
  12. Bumble

    Western Australia - Metal Detecting For Gold

    The really hot area at the moment is the Pilbara region, where Novo Resources and others have been finding nuggets of gold the size and shape of pumpkin seeds. I've no idea about the legalities of metal detecting there. >>> Whatever you do, be careful of spiders and snakes  ... and ants, crocodiles, sharks, box jellyfish, irukandjis, cone snails, cassowaries, stonefish, blue-ringed octopus, in fact pretty much anything that moves.
  13. Bumble

    1925 Half Sovereign - no mint mark

    Just to chip in belatedly... @Roy asks, If it is a fake, you have to wonder why pick a date that is only minted outside of the UK? A possible answer is that a forger might pick an invalid date so if they are prosecuted they can legitimately claim that their coin cannot be a forgery since there exists no genuine coin for it to be a forgery of. I believe at least one forger has successfully made this defence. HGM must check everything, surely? FWIW, I have had the experience of selling a krug to HGM over the counter, and the tests they performed were: visual inspection (by eye, not using a loupe), weighing, pinging and xrf scan. This would not catch a good quality fake made of gold of the right quality. As @Barney's post above explains, many fake sovereigns were made between 1925 and the early 1950s for the simple reason that the Royal Mint were not making them, but there was a significant demand. The forgers stepped in to supply this demand, usually with coins of 22 ct quality, or close to it, profiting from the difference in value between the gold content and the coin price. Fakes of this kind are still common in India and in South America. If you are only interested in the gold content, then you might not care whether it is an authentic Royal Mint coin; you could regard it as a round that will never be worth less than its scrap value.
  14. Bumble

    Fractionals and fakes

    I usually put a lot of trust in the ping test. The Bullion Test app covers sovereigns, but not half sovs. Coins that are the wrong size or a different metal should fail the ping test badly, though I suppose a fake numismatic made from real gold might pass. Have you tried ping testing your coins?
  15. @Dicker. Thanks for your post. I'd be interested to know what investment professionals think about precious metals as an investment vehicle. My limited experience is that they won't touch physical PMs because they have no yield and won't touch the PM miners because they are too volatile. What do you think it would take for investors to make a significant rotation into PMs? Even an average 5% or so in portfolios would create a large demand and make a big difference to PM prices.