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Martlet

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Posts posted by Martlet

  1. 2 hours ago, SidS said:

    Just a thought, but if average gold sales are down in India due to restrictions and lockdowns, does it not also follow that other eastern cultures, where gold is equally valued, might also have other priorities than buying gold? If disposable income is down too potentially, then income will be spent on food/shelter etc.

    If anything I see gold going sideways.

    Not only not buying but selling metals. That is why they buy it in the first place, to sell in tougher times.  

  2. 25 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

    Anybody think the small rise today could be for the Basel III implementation tomorrow...?

    I start reading around the Basel III change though got lost in the weeds.  Suffice to say gold bugs talked up the impact, on the understanding that banks must increase collateral against unallocated gold holdings.  This over looks that banks dont need to hold gold on their balance sheets, they simply drop their unallocated gold position rather than meet the collateral requirement.  The major bullion dealing banks hold gold for clients, not on their own balance sheets, so shouldn't be affected.  

  3. Well both the gold and silver showed Out of stock just, now change to no longer available and awaiting stock.  

    The gold set does look lush in the frosted finish, and not too bad pricing.  Though i suspect the future value will be in a broken up sets.

  4. 3 hours ago, Pete said:

    My experience with beautiful proof Britannia gold coins, boxed sets and very low mintages is that I paid a premium say 20% over spot when I purchased and ended up selling at 97% of spot. I didn't loose money because spot had risen by the premium and a bit more but I was very disappointed that the premium was completely lost. I tried to sell to coin dealers that were advertising the same coins at very high premiums and was being offered proofs at 5% to buy over spot at the time. I couldn't find buyers here either at spot price so in frustration I handed over to HGM just to get rid of them. I kept the empty boxes though as it didn't make any difference to the price but at least the dealers didn't have the box and certificate to double their asking price when reselling. Moral - don't pay too much extra for a proof if you think it will retain its value.

    I was going to post about this.  It was painful, without spare cash watching all those nice coins go like that.  Lesson learnt there isn't a liquid market for general proofs.  

  5. 5 hours ago, Michal said:

    I got great and honest definition for inflation. Inflation = increase of money in economy - economic growth. 

    Its not the correct definition though. This is expansion of the money supply.  Its possible for money supply to increase and inflation increases at lower rate or not at all (as we've seen most the past decade); or inflation can occur without increased money supply (as happened frequently under gold standard).  This isnt something that has changed, its always been a complex statistical reporting, the point of it is to give an approximation across the whole economy. 

    Individual goods and services are subject to supply and demand, technical advances and costs of production, that will raise and lower their price independently of other factors in the economy.  A chocolate bar might rise 500% in 30 years because increase cost of materials and labour abroad, cost of shipping and production, cost of marketing, and ultimately because the market will let them (large chunk of retailer margins). 

  6. 5 hours ago, SidS said:

    I've always measured inflation through chocolate bar prices.

    In 1991, a Dairy Milk cost 15p, now it's about 60p-75p depending where you're shopping.

    That's 400-500% price rise in 30 years. Now if inflation is at 2-3%, officially most years, then it shouldn't be so high.

    But that's not how inflation is calculated, it uses a range of goods and services to arrive at a weighted average.  If you track one item you'll be way out of alignment.  Inflation number is a benchmark for prices, some things will be more, some less.  Everyone's personal inflation will be different because we buy different weights of goods and services. 

  7. 1 hour ago, HerefordBullyun said:

    You are confusing underperforming with undervalued.  Is there a sensible analysis for silver being valued less than it should be?

  8. Not sure the full and honest picture is given on these changes, seems some commentators are using Basel III to promote a gold rush from banks, others see it as a problem.  Would need to read more into the detail of the change.

    One thing stands out to me though, if banks can use 100% rather than 50% ratio on their balance sheets, they just effectively doubled their holding of that asset.  So they may see that as opportunity to reduce holdings for net same position. 

  9. 8 hours ago, DaKine said:

    OK, I want an updated actual mintage of the QB bullion gold. Some earlier figures had been released but don't see anything now that the series is through.I know it has been said they might be restriking earlier coins (I doubt this) but very hare to get evidently. While anyone is at it, how about the platinum QB's - which have one more to go and even perhaps a completer for that series as well?

    Royal Mint dont give out bullion mintage numbers any longer claiming commercial sensitivity.  Some early data slipped out but more recent request get blanked.  Ironically they continue to give mintage for proofs and collectables where the mintage is expected to be price sensitive.:rolleyes:

  10. 1 hour ago, PeteUK1960 said:

    Interesting facts

    US national debt increases by 330,000 per second.

    A 2% rise in interest rates would mean the total US GDP wouldn`t cover the interest.

    The gold/silver ratio is the highest in history at 65/1. True ratio historically is 15/1.

    For every one ounce of gold above ground there are 50 ounces on unallocated paper contracts.

    Banks all over the world are buying gold at a rate never seen before.

     

    I'll be blunt and point out the irony you know these "facts" but hadn't researched into the best way to buy gold.  (At least two are not true ).

    You should be speaking to Lawrence Chard, who's given the best deal and a fish supper. 

  11. What you are asking is, does having a lot of insurance cover will make you profit?  No, it covers you for losses. 

    The hyperinflation scenario means your silver pays for ordinary things without using increasingly valueless currency. You can also preserve some wealth, savings across a period of economic turmoil.

    There is another scenario, that silver is manipulated to be dramatically undervalued, which will be corrected in time.  In this case, the price of silver will surge.  However the proponents usually assert this will usher in a economic reset and your really back to the preservation of wealth.  You will seem to have made a paper profit but not in practical real terms as the economy collapses around. 

    Yet another scenario is some situation causing a price bubble, and there would be a significant profit to be made.  This will be short lived and unlikely to reach near 10x, as at some price point before that thousands of tons of supply would become economical to come to market. 

  12. This retail silver squeeze doesnt work, unless the plan is to make money for the dealers.  100,000 buy their 100oz, until the dealers are out of stock They probably dont hold 10m oz collectively anyway so a lot of people wont get their 100oz.  The dealers put in orders to the wholesalers, mints for new stock next week and in the queue for delivery. 

    And wait. At some point they'll get their new stock. Or not, who knows. However, the effect on the upstream market is diminished because of those delays and steps between demand and supply. This isnt like a short squeeze on a stock where there is a single market, one source of supply and demand funnelled together.  The "signal" from the demand surge will be filtered out through the dealers, wholesales, mints and finally make through to exchanges to affect futures pricing.

  13. On 23/04/2021 at 18:20, Bigmarc said:

    For this to work, does everyone have to buy directly from the comex?

    In principle you need to buy from one market in order to move it consistently. This is why the calls for some mass public short squeeze fail, because everyone is buying different assets in different markets, the buying it distributed and absorbed. 

  14. 12 hours ago, GoldenGriffin said:

    This is interesting too, pushing gold buyers towards crypto currencies and confirms digital currencies were discussed in the 90's.

    Talks about sovereigns being exempt from having to hand in, or as he puts it "confiscated".

    One of many channels I follow. 

     

    Clutching at straws, people buying something else is not any sort of confiscation.  The risk profile, motivations and horizons for gold and crypto investments are very different.  There are a few that see crypto as a hedge to dollar inflation, a very small minority in market where most are interested in the tech, the decentralisation, or mainly number goes up. 

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