Martlet

1 hour ago, MancunianStacker said:

I can imagine a deal with the Chinese though for mining rights in exchange for infrastructure such as rail, buildings, roads etc. If they can protect the Chinese workers such a deal should go quite well.

A Country with a GDP of £20 Billion a year (£8 Billion of which was Western foreign aid) and which is banning drugs, will need new industry and selling off their assets and land to the Chinese like Africa has is the easy option. It will fill the pockets of those at the top of the pyramid in Afghan whilst keeping them in power as voters feel life gets better with better 21st Century “stuff”. 🤷‍♂️ 

It will be interesting to see things pan out. I think the Taliban know they need access to modern tech and need to be modern to keep control. Keeping ISIS at bay is their main problem now, civil gorilla style war could be coming. Power vacuums don’t go well. 

Possibly, its a big "if" at the start there.  Many businesses from many countries already bought mineral rights over the past decades, US had the country relatively stable (though maybe a facade, only in the cities).  From what i understand they didn't even do much in the way of prospecting on the ground.  The estimates of minerals are based on aerial surveys.  Once you identified a resource and put in some infrastructure to get to it, get materials out, they'll have to deal with the warlords natural corruption highlighted by @HerefordBullyun .  Seems all very tenuous and not something you'd base a strategic plan around, commercial or military.  If they (Chinese-Afghan collaboration) do manage it, then the rest of the world benefits from the extracted minerals and maybe that enhances security to the nation, win all round. 

6 hours ago, Minimalist said:

What?! The United States put the people into power. Theres a former World Bank person as the President of Afghanistan. What on EARTH are YOU on about?

I swear people cannot be this thick.

11 hours ago, Minimalist said:

What a find, mate.

I always state to people I know, friends and family that the US-UK governments sell themselves to special interest groups (military industrial complex and mineral and oil industries). This proceeds to occupations, empires and mass murder campaigns while the conventional troops get killed/caught up in illegal wars. This gets viewed as controversial, or, they attempt to try and withdraw the analysis by attacking with ad hominem attacks or defamation. Its incredible.

Maybe you could constructed a consistent argument rather than go direct to insults?  

25 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

So your telling me if the west did conquer Afghanistan and the diplomatic means did work and say the west installed someone like Karzhi in power dont you think that he would do a deal with the west to exploit said minerals..... If not I think you are being very niave me old mate..... 

You also have to understand the strategic importance of the country. If a deal was made with the west there would a been an abudance of NATO Trrop posted there for very long time..... For the record I served in Afghanistan in 2013. I know exactly the reason why we deployed and it aint the narritive many are told..... 

I'm certain the West, or China, or anyone would love to get into some mineral exploitation in Afghanistan.  The fact is the country hasn't been stable enough to make that a serious investment proposition, and recent events have make that situation worse.  Unless maybe the Taliban are going make a stable government, provide the legal, infrastructure and security to make prospecting, exploration and mining viable?  The main point is the claims about resources are wildly exaggerated, there might be vast mineral wealth, but its not anywhere near commercial viability. 

On lithium in particular, largest currently known reserves are in Chile and Australia, we'll be exploring and digging around there a long time before venturing into the Afgan mountains.

(double post)

2 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Afghanistan has the one of the worlds most amount of lithium - go figure!

So the claims go, but these are estimated resources, not known economically viable reserves.  Dont believe the hype, lithium is abundant across the world with large reserves in Chile and Australia.  Where are you going to extract your lithium, established mines in stable countries or go prospecting with tribal warlords to deal with.  Near 20 years with no mineral exploitation, why buy into the notion these events are to allow mineral exploitation, when it just got a lot harder not easier?

If weight and dimensions are OK i'd trust those over the sound it supposed to make.  Does gold even have a clear ring, that's a silver thing isn't it?

22 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

The drop was exactly at the opening bell this morning after a very peculiar night.
Looks like the grand canyon or table mountain.  

I might be wrong but I have never seen it go horizontal like that outside of the weekends and holidays?? 
You can see it was still active as it had a few minor blips. I look at it every day.

No, that chart shows it at the open because its only presenting UK market.  Hence a flat line overnight, despite the round the clock nature of gold market.  Look for other, better charts, there's many.  For example, Tradingview will give you to the minute detail, albeit on CFD exchanges. 

Edit: Looking at BPP directly it normally shows overnight changes, expect their source lost a feed from Asia. 

26 minutes ago, Stacktastic said:

Whats going on here then - there have been some shady moved on gold recently.
At least this was in market open and not in the middle of the night on Sunday LOL.
Guess it was a large sale order going through on market open?

Their data feed must be based on UK price, drop was overnight, over about 15mins at 01:30.

52 minutes ago, shawy2510 said:

Anyone who got that will most likely be RMs preferred customers & us mortals had no chance.

Who are the mortals that can afford a 10oz gold proof in one hit?  

4 hours ago, SidS said:

A good question... Not an easy answer.

It depends really, if you're asking whether I'd want to live in a communist country then the answer is categorically no.

However, in the East there seems to be a will (whether benevolent or not) to maintain a strong national identity and to maintain (or try to maintain) a sense of independence. I figure this is what's behind Russia, China and others stockpiling gold. It's a way to become financially independent from the west.

Indeed it is not easy.  The east is a mix of authoritarian and socialist states, with less than robust rule of law or recognition of property rights.  The nations may be trying to be financially independent, but at a whiff of failure they'll be seizing your property.  The individual is not so independent as in the west.  

15 hours ago, SilverStorm said:

I'm glad you mentioned this @EdwardTeach.   Saw this on CNN news, apparently Afghanistan is potentially sitting on a $1 Trillion worth of minerals, which includes gold.  The question is now whether or not the Taliban has the foresight to mine the minerals for the benefit of their country and the world.   Considering the potential economic value from mining, I'm surprised the US didn't try to exploit the situation as a way of recapturing all the money they poured into the country.

Link:  The Taliban are sitting on $1 trillion worth of minerals the world desperately needs - CNN

 

The claims were pitched some time ago (10+ yrs), I reckon to boost the argument to stay in Afghanistan.  I recall looking into it and many companies from many countries were involved in bidding for licences.  If there were exploitable reserves, mining would have started by now.  Seems there is not the legal or security frameworks there to make even exploration viable, so the claims remain as resources on a high level report, rather than as reserves and revenue in company reports. 

2 hours ago, SidS said:

The west seem to be stripping their countries to the bone, the east seem to be stockpiling gold and building strong militaries. Something's afoot...

Interesting review, skip past objections and straight to the conclusion.  Would you rather be in the East or the West?

4 hours ago, SilverStorm said:

No you didn’t, you lost all of it in a boating accident.  For goodness sake, get your story correct!   😝😆

Do you have a insurance claim for that?  When you sell on, who does the buyer put on the declaration form? 

If the authorities went ahead with this, they are not going to leave large loopholes.

Once they have the means and will to track assets, they'll make sure they track it accurately including private transactions.  No good claiming you have no gold if dont have whats expected from the record, they'll tax you on assumption you disposed of it.  

On the other hand naff all chance they'll get something this complex to implementation.

48 minutes ago, Midasfrog said:

As Kabul falls will gold rise sharply ? Could be an interesting few weeks ahead £1300 and beyond  

Probably, gold reacts to events, so expect a short spike. 

23 minutes ago, HarryK said:

He also makes some very insightful comments on Basel lV. 

Not really, he makes some exaggerated interpretation, then wanders off into batland theories. 

2 hours ago, Uksilverstackers said:

Andrew McGuire gives some techy insight on his perception of the smackdown for anyone that may be interested.

 

Live from The Vault

Worth noting the narrative around Basel III is invalidated as its been delayed a year. 

9 hours ago, dicker said:

My guess is that it was dump paper to buy buy physical…..

I dont think so, there's no market open that early to take advantage of the lower price, not in that sort of quantity.  By the time the Asia markets open properly, half the fall has recovered.  Either way risky strategy for a 4-5% drop.

Meanwhile there was bad data out of China over the weekend and the large US Infrastructure Bill going through, oil also dropped (only 2% mind).  Maybe someone just wanted to exit gold. 

Not likely to get lost and look like some papers or other non-descript package.  Re-use the unmarked jiffy. 

US CPI number was up, but lower increase than June, so mix bag there and not a lot of action for gold.  UK CPI number next week might have more effect, if it affects £:$.

Tea leafs show a descending channel, the wick last night went to about the middle of that, also coinciding with the low of March and a fib level from 2020 low.  All told a lower price is far more likely than an ATH.  Channel could go as low as $1450 this year, though that seems too low, probably find its way down $1675, nice wedge for the end of year and make a decision for 2022. 

20 minutes ago, Uksilverstackers said:

2020 is same but with no growth and being managed with all the associated Covid bailout money being stuffed in as much as they can to prevent economic fallout.
 

Steady growth? Why is BOE is still stuffing £850 Billion into the system with no end in sight.

 

Right, just like 2009. Then from 2010 on... growth.  Yes, its supported by QE (my point), as yet without huge inflation and negative fallout we'd have expected.  When expectations are not met with evidence, change expectations. 

Overall point is, there are many analysts that are not alarmed by the current policy, some might even say its not enough. The silver and gold prices are responding to the mixed messages with sideways/weakening as the economic outlook is relatively positive. 

3 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Ok so - are you sayng the crash of 2008, is just a nothing then? And the next one wont be worse? No bail outs? Dont you think the west will be japanified economincally?

I'm simply observing that the expected negative effects of looser monetary policy have not occurred yet, despite being in place for over a decade.  2008 was managed with bailouts and QE with little economic fall out, instead we've had steady growth and low inflation.  With a decade of evidence, longer with Japan, we need to adjust our understanding of how QE and bailouts act upon the economy. 

2 hours ago, Coverte said:

 

Absolutely nailed it, history always repeats - I have yet to read or listen to any professional anylyst who is not alarmed by the eventual and apalling inevitable fallout of reckless money printing in USA, EU & UK (UK the biggest in % terms).

Must be a select range of analyst. Its not as reckless as you think, propping up markets so the economies dont go in to full recession and collapse.  Its been over 12 years since we embarked on QE in the west and Japan has been doing the same policy for decades without the "inevitable" fallout.  Global markets and massive cross boarder flows of capital have made the old models redundant. 

Brexit had an affect on £:gold price as the pound fell dramatically, dont see it would have much direct effect on gold prices. 

Trump was risky, gold is hedge against risk, but that came after the rise of gold in early 2016.  Thought might be something middle east, nothing stands out.  Just market cycle.