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Martlet

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Posts posted by Martlet

  1. 30 minutes ago, silversky said:

    ...

    I expect a hunkering down this winter, as people choose between heating their homes, or eating something better than spam.  All I've been hearing locally, is concern over energy and food bills.  This is IRL, not on the internet.  There's real concern, and I think this means there's real trouble coming.  The market has completely fallen out of second hand commercial vehicles, according to a trader I know, and this indicates to me that all sorts of people are experiencing a contraction in their own personal money supply.

    ...

    Are those concerned about energy and food also planning holidays?  Chatter i'm seeing is a lot of concern with a lot of discretionary spending.  It will be a hard winter for many without a major policy change on energy, think some respond to sentiment and talk it down.

  2. 55 minutes ago, LawrenceChard said:

    Sorry, but WTF is a CBDC?

    I had to use Google to remind me what WEF is (The World Economic Forum), but all I could easily find on CBDC was about Small Business Development Corporations, Small Business Development Centers, I even expected Google to ask "Did you mean CBGB's?"

    😎

    Central Bank Digital Currency. 

    In the fevered mind of some they will replace currency and the government will control what you can spend on.  In practice they'll only appeal to statist nations, like China, because with control over spending comes responsbility to provide for the population.  China is culurally fine with that, Western liberal democracies would rather tell you what to do from arms length, let you get on with the day to day.  The real advantage of them, and crypto generally in future, will be in the finance industries, where they tracking of ownership of assets reduces risks.  

  3. 9 hours ago, Oldun said:

    Fyi, the plant is inoperational. That is all. Will leave speculation to others.

    I think there's a lot of mixing up of two different power stations in the news, and a sprinkling of western/Ukrainian spin.  Its sufficient to spook the market however will bounce back Monday when there isnt plumes of radioactive ducts across eastern Europe.

    Generally, this war has little effect on most businesses, except the increase in oil price. This looks artifical too, as no one has sanctioned Oil/Gas exports yet.  I saw something the US are looking to do this but they import so little to make no difference.  In such times gold becomes the haven for flight from risk, the lack of significant flight suggests the risks are not that great on deeper analysis. 

  4. 1 hour ago, chrisdobb said:

    I value your opinions and bow to your vast knowledge but do feel your insinuation that people cannot work out that postage and insurance costs money as insulting to my intelligence.

    Awkward view when earlier in thread we have a poster who seems to think it can be cut out for little impact.  People really do get taken in by "free" p&p, and often pay more when you look at >1 item because of it. 

  5. 4 minutes ago, silversky said:

    I refer you back to my post about wee Gogs and his claim to have cured boom and bust.  That was a case of extreme hubris.  He most certainly was in the "it's different this time" camp.  ie. the "it can't happen because we've fixed it" brigade.

    Of course it's different in terms of force and magnitude.  But that wasn't the point.  The point was that one will definitely come no matter what they try to do and that they come cyclically.  I believe it will come around the middle of this decade but I'm open to hear reasons why I might be wrong on the timing.

    Certainly agree about Brown.  However recent history does tell us things are different, for other reasons.  Better to come to terms with change rather than insist it must be how we think it should be. 

  6. 1 hour ago, GoldStatue said:

    I happened upon a youtube video the other day that gave me food for thought about the gold standard in the US.

    The gist of it was that the economist felt that even though the US left the gold standard many decades ago, all the good times in the US economy have since then coincided with a stable gold price. 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDPOIk2ohNc

     

    Cause or effect though?  If view gold as a hedge against risks, makes sense that in times of good economy, low incident of risk, gold would be steady. 

  7. 6 hours ago, Robda1986 said:

    I'm thinking it's people pulling their funds out of crypto looking at the beating that's taken over the last month and choosing silver over gold due to the ratio being so far out of wack 

    No one is taking funds out of highly liquid crypto, with all the volatile gains, to put in low liquidity metal.  It just isn't the same risk profile at all. 

  8. The cost for mining an astroid will be extremely high, making it uneconomic at first. Then they'll make it scale and the cost will plummet, with virtually no variable costs (energy, labour, transportation, royalties etc).  The target will be for base metals in bulk with an angle on being environmentally friendly, gold and silver will come out of the tailings for free.  It'll take time to get there, when it does it'll flip economics of minerals very quickly. 

  9. Silver and gold do not track inflation very well, up or down.*  It's an old trope from the days of gold standard.  What metals do is provide a hedge for wealth preservation against hard falls of market, though even then we see them suffer in short term events. 

    Some may blame manipulation, this only makes the case if the price is held down, it is not tracking inflation.  Some will claim its undervalued, however if its tracking inflation the value is what it should be relative to economic value.  

    * Silver is about twice the 1970 value adjusted for official inflation, gold about 7x more.  So is the manipulated up or down?

  10. 13 hours ago, dicker said:

    What is curious is that they put a helicopter over Cliff’s house. Cliff was of course innocent.

    They chose not to do the same to Savile, Hall, Harris et al at any time.   All very odd.  

     

    Its very simple, because such a mistakes made over Saville and others, they wanted to ensure they weren't behind if there was another.  Because people beat up an institution over the mistakes of individuals, the institution goes into assertive defense.  What went on at institutions was insidious as well, do

  11. My observation is critics of BBC do so because they've been told its bad, its left wing, etc.  They dont actually watch much to form an independent opinion, and listen to radio even less.  They'll cite a fringe example from thousands of hours of material. Or get all bothered they have a gay couple on Strictly, but not actually watch Strictly. 

    The main news covers the same headlines as the other channels, the regular programming varies in quality but isnt overtly political, save a few programmes.  Essentially no different to any other broadcaster or channel, except Channel 4 (which is deliberatly and purposely alternative).  Radio can only comment from memory (BBC1 trash, BBC23 dull), though Radio 4 is a beacon of proper journalism and good comedy.  

    Really the only problem is the licence, I can understand the objection there.  It's a shame they don't recognise their commercial strengths and licence more overseas to fund the free service in the UK. 

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