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K_theepan got a reaction from stefffana in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only
UBS has downgraded its average gold price forecast for gold largely because of greater downside risks stemming from lower oil prices and the implied absence of an inflation threat, it said.
The broker lowered its 2015 gold price forecast to $1,190 from $1,200 – the spot metal price was last at a little-changed $1,228/1,228.70 per ounce.
“While the expected price direction remains the same, the magnitude of our previous price expectations was too aggressive and needed to be revised lower,” it said in a release on Thursday.
“Fed [monetary policy] normalisation and dollar strength are considerable hurdles for gold, but reduced market length and the fact that much of the adjustment had already been made in the last couple of years should help limit the force behind a move lower,” it added.
Uncertainty about the eurozone economy, which is stagnating and risks falling into recession again, is burnishing gold’s safe-haven qualities. But the resultant weaker euro and stronger dollar are muddying the waters; the same reaction is likely should the ECB launch large-scale sovereign QE.
The dollar is firm against the euro, holding around nine-year highs at 1.1761.
Another risk is that a wider gap between market expectations on US rates and the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts increases the potential for a bigger adjustment should the Fed turn more aggressive, bringing market consensus more in line with its thinking, UBS aid.
For silver, it lowered its forecasts across the board to reflect weaker-than-expected sentiment, highlighted by the gold:silver ratio staying above 70.
Restoring investor interest is likely to play out over a longer timetable, the bank said, maintaining the view that silver should outperform gold but that this must take time to unfold.
“Despite silver’s year-to-date positive performance and gains in positioning, it’s still premature to call for a significant return of investor interest – more evidence is needed and industrial demand needs to step up,” UBS said.
It lowered its average silver price forecast for this year to $18.20 from $18.40 and sees it averaging $20.00 in 2016, down from $21.0 previously. For 2015, UBS sees silver averaging $21.00, down from its earlier forecast of $22.00.
The lacklustre fourth-quarter performance of platinum suggests continued weak investor sentiment, the bank said, pushing back its expected recovery.
It lowered its 2015 average price forecast to $1,400 from $1,500, its 2016 prediction to $1,500 from $1650, its 2017 expectation to $1,650 from $1,800 and its 2018 forecast to $1,800 from $2,100.
This downgrade also coincides with smaller deficits than previously forecast, which have been driven by higher than expected mine supply and downgrades to expected autocatalyst demand, UBS said.
While it expects deficits in future, market positioning presents a challenge amid concerns that the trade may become too crowded, it said.
For palladium, UBS lowered its 2015 average forecast to $900 from $925 but kept its forecasts further unchanged, which it said is in line with robust fundamentals and favourable underlying investor sentiment.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)
- See more at: http://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/focus-ubs-lower-2015-gold-price-forecast-others-also-revised-downward-88279/#sthash.Ce6eGbNr.dpuf
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K_theepan reacted to Sovereign in Today I Received.....
1872 shield back MS62
My first ever silver panda lol
MS70
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K_theepan reacted to StackerMike in Today I Received.....
1987 3 Coin set Gold panda
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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K_theepan reacted to morezone in Today I Received.....
Silver 2015 Nanjing "Raccoon" Panda. It doesn't look too bad really. Early pics in brass and copper looked quite hideous.
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K_theepan reacted to morezone in Today I Received.....
2016 Chinese Lunar Monkey 1/10 Gold and 1 oz Silver Coin set.
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K_theepan reacted to Lindeman in Today I Received.....
Nearing the end of the simple year date run for the US silver Morgan dollars: a 1904 O.
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K_theepan reacted to Kman in Today I Received.....
My mum knows I like sovereigns, went to see her one time, she got out a jewellery box and showed me a sovereign that used to be my great aunts
I thought she was going to give it to me.. she didn't llol
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K_theepan reacted to Bullionbilly in Today I Received.....
2014, 05, 06, 08 kooks thanks @arshimo2012
2014 & 2013 elephannts inc a 2014 horse privy thanks @HelpingHands
1st delivery of the new year !
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K_theepan reacted to KevinG in Today I Received.....
My first pick up's of the year. Two 2017 Maples and a 1912 French gold rooster.
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K_theepan reacted to UraaniBarbaari in Today I Received.....
Iran 1/2 Pahlavi. 4.086 g /. 900. Neat little coin.
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K_theepan reacted to Quicksilver in Today I Received.....
Another delivery today, Temple of heaven Brass medals Antique Brass and Bimetallic and some rooster 2017 coins
Brass.
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K_theepan reacted to daz in Today I Received.....
small order from stg/coininvest , i will say they there packaging on this order was excellent very well bubblewrapped so no coins banging together.
really like the fiji iguana and i actually really like the new brit design with the radial lines .
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K_theepan reacted to Quicksilver in Today I Received.....
One of my deliveries today was a 2017 Panda MS70 early release and Dragon and Phoenix MS70 early release also a 2015 panda
I would like to say a Big thank you to the person who helped me get these for my collection.
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K_theepan reacted to Sovereign in Today I Received.....
2002 proof full sovereign
1/4oz griffin in good condition
Youtube video comming up
sovereign_uk
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K_theepan reacted to morezone in Today I Received.....
Been waiting on this order for some time as a lot were on pre-order at the time of ordering.
Rounds - Lunar Snake, Lunar Goat, SMI Barber & 2016 Sioux Buffalo/Indian
2017 Kookaburra, 2017 Dragon & Phoenix, 2017 Somaliland Monkey, 2016 Niue Turtle
2015 & 2017 Cook Islands Bounty, 2017 Tokelau Hakula Sailfish, 2017 New Zealand Rooster
2017 Britannia, 2012 Maple with Pisa Privy, 2017 Chad African Lion.
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K_theepan reacted to Quicksilver in Today I Received.....
Some Christmas gifts and a delivery from Christmas 1.KG Libertad proof like.
2 x 2016 Libertad proofs 5.oz 2.oz 1.oz 1/2.oz ¼.oz 1/10 1/20 Also a Pamp Suisse Fortuna 5.oz Bar + monarch 1.oz bar and a 2013 Libertad 1.oz proof
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K_theepan reacted to rebnah in Today I Received.....
Merry Christmas to everyone!
look what I got today along with a new son who was born on the 20th.
WOW! What a great Christmas.
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K_theepan reacted to sovereignsteve in Today I Received.....
A few things finally arrived from the states, including a nice proof-like Morgan, my first.
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