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*tada*

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About *tada*

Profile Information

  • Location:
    New York City
  • Stacker/Collector:
    Collector

What I am collecting / Investing in.

  • What I am collecting / Investing in.
    Modern Coins (Libertad, Sovereign, and US Modern)

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  1. *tada*

    Some Musings on Gold

    BTW sixgun, IAU has a different structure, and allows for double-ownership for lack of a better word, this is what actually concerns people who worried about worst scenarios. That's why, despite being cheaper in management fees, IAU is a much smaller fund than GLD
  2. *tada*

    Some Musings on Gold

    Agree - gold is the hardest thing to predict really
  3. *tada*

    Some Musings on Gold

    India/China consume a lot of gold in jewelry, which is a large proportion of gold demand. Others demands come from dentistry/electronics, these gets recycled all the time
  4. *tada*

    Some Musings on Gold

    Thank you, I was just trying to show the total known physical gold holdings from all ETFs as a gauge of investor demand
  5. *tada*

    Some Musings on Gold

    Nope, not for GLD's structure. If GLD cannot buy physical gold to back up the shares they issue they will stop issuing shares. And of course every institutional investor (who represents mom and pop investors) know where the gold is since they do on-site due diligence. For obvious reasons they won't tell mom and pop where they store the gold even if they requested it. I don't want to argue with you, believe in what you want as there are many conspiracy stories. Also, it's personal choice of holding physical (which you take care of the gold youself) for tail events or choosing a investment vehicle that's liquid and efficient for many aspects. Similarly, if you invested in Apple's stock and in their financial report they claim they have 10 billion in cash reserve. Do you go and ask Apple to show you their bank account? Yes, everything boils down to trust, and the laws preventing people to exploit other people's trust. The nice thing of fractional ownership is you can own a fraction in an efficient way.
  6. *tada*

    Some Musings on Gold

    Zerohedge (a site I like to read btw) likes to publish articles like these to scare people. The structure of GLD is a trust. The custodian of course can fool you but many institutional players will need to vet (i.e. check storage) before significant investment. If you're a retail investor why should they allow you to visit the vault? They're not sight-seeing business. There are some hardcore gold fund managers which almost always invest in physical bar only, for example First Eagle. But now they're also one of the largest holder of GLD, and the reason they hold physical is so that they can earn extra money when lending them out PS: Just realized it's "BullionStar" who publishes that article. I think bullion dealers are definitely threatened by the ETF gold inventions. But let's be fair and both side contributes positively to gold ownership.
  7. *tada*

    Some Musings on Gold

    Recently it became quite frustrating for gold stackers/buyers (and in general all PMs). Here're some interesting observations and also my take on macro picture 1. Gold price seems to be closely following the Chinese RMB depreciation recently. (yes, dollar strength matters for most times but it seems to be the CNY/CNH that's driving it recently) - Due to the trade war liquidity condition in China worsened dramatically (meaning capital control on full force, and there is scarcity of dollar/dollar assets everywhere) - Chinese companies are using pm as collateral now to borrow, so when the debt went bad, the bank "foreclose" the pm and leading to pressure on gold - The picture below shows RMB (blue line) vs Gold (orange line) going lockdown tick by tick 2. Global gold production is down in recent years, but all gold mined from human history is still there, never deteriorating. That's a lot actually so don't panic when people claim physical stock is strained. In the 70s South Africa over-mined but nowadays China becomes the largest miner. Most other gold miners reduced CAPEX and stayed lean after the price crash. Also, rest assured no one can corner the market in gold. If the next gold bull market starts, it will be very attractive to invest in gold miners though. 3. For gold to do amazingly well you need two things, upward surprise in inflation and downward surprise in growth. This is true for countless economic cycles in the past. US seems to be at peak growth now (as tax cut is already price in and we have best employment numbers in years), and on the other hand inflation looks to pick up (very low right now but can go a lot higher thanks again to trade war). I think there is a very good chance for gold (in USD terms) to surge in the coming years. But hey there are just too many factors and no one in the world can predict gold price even remotely well. 4. Here's a picture of Total Gold ETF holdings (eg. GLD, world's largest gold ETF backed by real gold). Demand is very healthy in this perspective. Happy stacking/collecting/investing! Please let me know your thoughts in comments~
  8. *tada*

    2018 Piedfort Sovereign Design

    less than 1000, maybe 650 but I wouldn't count on it.
  9. *tada*

    2018 Piedfort Sovereign Design

    If very limited mintage - I'll consider it. Otherwise, probably not
  10. *tada*

    2018 Piedfort Sovereign Design

    Have we ever seen a successful Piedfort line/series from anywhere? I think special Piedfort sovereigns are cute, but every year?!
  11. *tada*

    1989 GOLD PROOF SOVEREIGN

    Way too high for raw, a little bit more you can even buy a 70 graded one, which is insanely rare
  12. *tada*

    2017 UK Bicentenary Piedfort Sovereign

    Most us collectors are not familiar with the term Piedfort, but yes sovereigns are getting popular, so do the libertads and intl' coin issues. You have to thank the US mint and the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee for generating so much modern cra*p. Comparing to them, the Royal mint has much better taste (because of talent like JC) and is doing a much better job marketing stuff domestically.
  13. *tada*

    2017 UK Bicentenary Piedfort Sovereign

    There is a demand for FR/FS labels in the States. I think one reason is US mint produces large relative mintage in their offerings and FR/FS is perhaps the only way to make the label rarer. I doubt the piedfort will catch up though, not much discussion/interest here and lots of education needs to be done
  14. *tada*

    2017 UK Bicentenary Piedfort Sovereign

    They have these (stuck) in stock for a loooong time - I think the Piedfort sovereign is not well marketed in US. I recently sold one on the bay for $1600, but that's a First Release label.
  15. *tada*

    No J.C – error, variety or nothing to see

    Finally have some spare time and I am looking into this again this week - thanks @augur and @Numistacker who in the past put many efforts into this. I have collected 2 pairs of samples (NGC graded and raw ungraded) and they will be on their way to PCGS with a letter attached. However, the chance of making a new variety attribution is rather slim. Here's the abbreviated NGC definition and you can see why: Still it's something interesting and maybe even cool considering there is zero "NO JC" premium I'd say if you have one now you should keep it and make a note