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HawkHybrid

Member
  • Posts

    3,905
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  • Trading Feedback

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  • Country

    United Kingdom

Reputation Activity

  1. Super Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Sold all my gold, got stung   
    misconception of charting. charting is not a crystal ball.
    it's like counting cards in a card game. it might increase
    your probability of winning overall, but is not guaranteed.
    at any point the market can still go both ways, but the odds
    of it moving in any one direction changes depending on the
    'sum' of what has happened before that.
    trading is a zero sum game. there must be losers for there
    to be winners. hence everyone cannot trade using charts to
    be millionaires(winners). 
     
    HH
  2. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from HonestMoneyGoldSilver in Pep talk: don't sell your PM now   
    more stupidity.
    the paper currency have no value, it's the
    promise of payment that have value.
    (the stupid are those who copy stupidity
    said by others who think they are clever)
     
    do read the entire post before cherry picking
    parts to push forward your ideas.
     
    the idea that currency goes to zero is put
    forward by physical silver sellers such as
    mike maloney. it is a way to skew people into
    thinking they are being robbed. currency never
    goes to zero. ie you will never hold a valuable
    currency and then be robbed of it's value.
    paper currency is already at zero so can never
    go to zero. the value disappears when the
    promise to pay disappears. it's not the paper
    currency that's at fault.
     
    HH
  3. Super LOVE
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from CANV in Complete Noob in need of help   
    I vote start slow and starting with bullion sovereigns.
     
    HH
  4. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Centauri167 in I Wouldn't Buy Silver   
    for example with hindsight(or foresight at the time) the projected return on investment in gold
    from 2015-2020 would have been 8-10% on average per year.
    it requires a little insight into what prices you are expecting in the future and more importantly
    when it's likely to occur in the future.
    not some bs about now being the time to buy silver because it has dropped or even more bs about
    how valuable silver is against random goods and services. you don't even have any idea of a price
    target let alone a time frame for silver to reach that price target. you are clueless about silver so I
    don't know why you are telling people to buy silver now.
     
    HH
  5. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Centauri167 in I Wouldn't Buy Silver   
    you've already missed your chance to be a genius(that was two years ago when it hit ~$9 usd).
    for what purpose and return on investment is silver currently a bargain at $30 canadian?
     
    HH
  6. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Centauri167 in I Wouldn't Buy Silver   
    how is a mistake that takes years to correct not a mistake?
    you can only write off a mistake to inexperience if you first accept that it was a mistake.
     
    HH
     
  7. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Centauri167 in I Wouldn't Buy Silver   
    how has buying silver at $30/toz last year worked out for people so far?
     
    most/everything else on that list is performing as expected, except for the silver.
    does it do what is says on the tin or do you need to join the 'down with the silver manipulation' crowd,
    just to get what you paid for?
     
    (for any who think it's a bargain at $30/toz, no one is stopping you from buying out the years production
    of ~1 billion toz currently priced below 'bargain' prices)
     
    HH 
  8. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Griffo in Why are people stacking Silver over Gold when there is a VAT on silver?   
    gold dropping faster than silver to hit the 15:1 gsr is extremely unlikely to happen.
    historically a low gsr is a good time to sell both metals. this only really works if both metals have risen
    in the lead up to reaching 15:1(with silver rising faster). ie they are both overpriced at that point but
    silver more overpriced than gold due to it being more speculative. market sentiment analysis explains
    why it has historically happened this way.
    for gold to drop more to hit 15:1 and then rise faster than silver afterwards in order achieve something like
    20+:1 means that gold needs to be more volatile than silver. and this we know to be uncharacteristic of
    how both metals have behaved so far.
     
    HH
  9. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Griffo in Why are people stacking Silver over Gold when there is a VAT on silver?   
    early 1900's(which is what people usually think when they say it's going back to 15:1) until current day, sgr
    was never at or close to 15:1. interchanging old gold and silver coinage doesn't count as it was done by the
    standard of the law and not on the basis of metal value. would you swap five coins weighing 6.5g(cupronickel)
    each for the weight value of a 8g(cupronickel) coin? but the law says that a 50p(8g) piece is worth five
    10p(6.5g) coins. how can 8g = 32.5g by weight if both are exactly the same metal composition?
    the sovereign (£1) represent the weight value of one pound of sterling silver(it's why we call it the pound sterling).
    the definition of a pound of sterling silver then was different to what it is now. from memory it roughly equates to
    a gsr of ~50:1. so in the early 1900's the gsr by weight was ~50:1, which is nowhere near the 15:1 figure that
    people like to quote based on the interchanging rate of coinage at that time.
    (correction: the only time that it was at/near 15:1 since 1900 was at the height of the hunt brothers cornering of
    the silver market in 1980, which lasted less than a year, so is hardly representative of pricing over a 100 year time
    frame)
     
    HH
  10. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Centauri167 in Why are people stacking Silver over Gold when there is a VAT on silver?   
    early 1900's(which is what people usually think when they say it's going back to 15:1) until current day, sgr
    was never at or close to 15:1. interchanging old gold and silver coinage doesn't count as it was done by the
    standard of the law and not on the basis of metal value. would you swap five coins weighing 6.5g(cupronickel)
    each for the weight value of a 8g(cupronickel) coin? but the law says that a 50p(8g) piece is worth five
    10p(6.5g) coins. how can 8g = 32.5g by weight if both are exactly the same metal composition?
    the sovereign (£1) represent the weight value of one pound of sterling silver(it's why we call it the pound sterling).
    the definition of a pound of sterling silver then was different to what it is now. from memory it roughly equates to
    a gsr of ~50:1. so in the early 1900's the gsr by weight was ~50:1, which is nowhere near the 15:1 figure that
    people like to quote based on the interchanging rate of coinage at that time.
    (correction: the only time that it was at/near 15:1 since 1900 was at the height of the hunt brothers cornering of
    the silver market in 1980, which lasted less than a year, so is hardly representative of pricing over a 100 year time
    frame)
     
    HH
  11. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Scaffstacker in How underwater lost treasures are creating a new gold rush , 1/3 of gold gathered by man is lost at sea   
    it's not linear. all the ships that got sunk before 1900 accounts for less than 10% of total mined gold.
    you only need to count the recent shipments that have been lost. the world currently mines ~2,400 tonnes
    of gold each year, much more than it have ever done so historically. sinking 100% of the last 40 years of
    total gold production would give you 1/3. if all of the gold before 1900 was lost, it would only amount to 10%
    historically total mined gold that is lost. people are going to notice 1/3 of their gold being lost in the last 120
    years. 800 tonnes of gold is a massive amount to lose on average per year. america who have the largest
    official gold holding of any nation currently, only claim to have 8,000 tonnes, which is only 10 years worth of
    losses by that calculation. I don't think the 1,000's of ships lost each year actually contain much gold.
     
    HH
  12. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Griffo in How underwater lost treasures are creating a new gold rush , 1/3 of gold gathered by man is lost at sea   
    it's not linear. all the ships that got sunk before 1900 accounts for less than 10% of total mined gold.
    you only need to count the recent shipments that have been lost. the world currently mines ~2,400 tonnes
    of gold each year, much more than it have ever done so historically. sinking 100% of the last 40 years of
    total gold production would give you 1/3. if all of the gold before 1900 was lost, it would only amount to 10%
    historically total mined gold that is lost. people are going to notice 1/3 of their gold being lost in the last 120
    years. 800 tonnes of gold is a massive amount to lose on average per year. america who have the largest
    official gold holding of any nation currently, only claim to have 8,000 tonnes, which is only 10 years worth of
    losses by that calculation. I don't think the 1,000's of ships lost each year actually contain much gold.
     
    HH
  13. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Griffo in How underwater lost treasures are creating a new gold rush , 1/3 of gold gathered by man is lost at sea   
    how did they work that figure out when it's estimated that 90% of all mined gold was mined after 1900?
     
    HH
  14. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Griffo in Why are people stacking Silver over Gold when there is a VAT on silver?   
    it's actually part of the same issue. (just marketing)
    it's like how some dealers give 'free' delivery and others clearly charge for delivery.
     
    HH
  15. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Griffo in Why are people stacking Silver over Gold when there is a VAT on silver?   
    on the contrary to it being nonsense. the rate of taxes on potential 'investments' such as silver have
    a real impact on return on investment. higher taxes makes it harder for you to pass the costs to a buyer.
    assuming that you did find a buyer that is willing to pay all of the higher taxes, your return on investment
    would be lower due to needing a higher outlay to make the same returns.(do the detailed maths if you
    don't believe me).
     
    HH
  16. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Griffo in Why are people stacking Silver over Gold when there is a VAT on silver?   
    more of an excuse than an explanation for purposely going off topic by promoting uranium.
     
    should we allow all non members to go off topic with the latest fad?
     
    HH
  17. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Griffo in Why are people stacking Silver over Gold when there is a VAT on silver?   
    mike maloney should have done the same experiment pre 1971(1968) with fully gold backed US dollars.
    my guess is the outcome would be the same. physical appearance is all that mattered to the children.
    two pieces of paper versus a shiny thing. the fact that pre 1971, one of those pieces of paper is equal to
    a shiny thing is beyond the children's comprehension. kids do funny things for seemingly random reasons.
     
    @KevinFlynn imo you are asking all the wrong questions.
    1. if stacking is the process of converting currency into metals then what is your purpose for stacking?
    (answering this leads to what quantity to stack? and which metal ratio is best for that purpose?)
     
    changing vat figures doesn't change the purpose of why people stack. it does however change the
    figures and ratios that would best fit their purpose for stacking. many of your questions is about the
    perception of stacking and other peoples opinion(including those such as mike maloney who have
    much to gain from encouraging more buying of metals/silver). few on the forum actually do the maths
    for their risk to reward ratio of what they are stacking. using historic averages/probabilities and doing
    the maths using your personal figures will tell you what ratio is likely best.
     
    my current ratio is weighted towards gold because the maths says it's likely favourable to do so.
    updating the likely return on investment is always handy when the figures change.
     
    HH
  18. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Tn21 in So, how did gold and silver do in 2021, and where do we go from here?   
    the difference between the gamestop short squeeze and the wall street silver short squeeze is night and day.
    people doing the gamestop short squeeze actually knew what they were doing and did the maths.
    the wall street silver short squeeze was made up by wannabes who collectively are so clueless that they don't
    even know what the term 'short squeeze' actually means. they rely on association by using names that sound
    similar and the 'anybody promoting physical silver can do no wrong' crowd defending them.
    just look at all those on the forum that still cling onto 'anybody promoting physical silver can do no wrong', still
    trying to defend them after they've scammed people into buying physical silver that has dropped over 20% in a
    year. but then again it's not them being scammed of 20%+, they only know to complain when the yearly inflation
    rate is 6%.
    silver will have it's day, only when it is ready. and not when some ignorant upstart thinks that they can 'command'
    it shoot to the moon.
     
    HH
  19. Like
    HawkHybrid reacted to GoldDiggerDave in The value of silver as an investment in UK   
    You need to make your own financial decisions if you think about it anyone trying to convince you to do anything will most likely have their own motives.  There are too many YouTubers pumping their own agendas especially sponsored silver pushers.  
    Silver as a hobby retains some value, better than spending money on computer games or fast and loose woman.  
    Hedge against what, inflation?  This is where I would encourage you to do your own research look at silver over 2021  has it gained or lost value look at real world inflation, factor in VAT, dealer premiums, postage, storage  as a very rough guide if you buy a silver 1oz round today you need spot to increase 50% just to hope to break even, and you would still make losses if you had to pay to post it or drive somewhere to sell it.  
    I'm a big fan of people being debt free, if you are making long term financial decisions look at working to be debt free by a given date.  Some of the best real world gains people can have is not paying interest or being a life long debt cycle. 
  20. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from EdwardTeach in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    into useful stuff like bread and baked beans.
     
    HH
  21. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Roy in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    crypto is nothingness made to look like something.(a big waste of electricity)
    currency is distribution of a nations productiveness that is stored in a form that is physically nothing.
    (think of currency like language, conveying information. the physical medium by which language is
    used is not important. it's the information that has value. don't judge a book by it's cover?)
     
    gold had value before people recognised it as valuable. the value in gold has nothing to do with humans
    or culture.
     
    HH
  22. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Mtaybar in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    into useful stuff like bread and baked beans.
     
    HH
  23. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from MancunianStacker in Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only   
    crypto is nothingness made to look like something.(a big waste of electricity)
    currency is distribution of a nations productiveness that is stored in a form that is physically nothing.
    (think of currency like language, conveying information. the physical medium by which language is
    used is not important. it's the information that has value. don't judge a book by it's cover?)
     
    gold had value before people recognised it as valuable. the value in gold has nothing to do with humans
    or culture.
     
    HH
  24. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from ArgentSmith in You can print precious metals after all.   
    https://www.cooksongold.com/Precious-Metal-Clay/-Range=Art_Clay_Silver/-Alloy=0/-Type=0/&prdsearch=y
    something like this printed and heated from a 3d printer?
    (or maybe printed and then finalised in a kiln?)
     
    HH
  25. Like
    HawkHybrid got a reaction from Booky586 in Is holding silver a hedge against inflation? Can you show me the math?   
    always someone who insists on calling it manipulation.
    from 1980 until 2000 silver has dropped from ~$50/toz to ~$5/toz.
    you don't need to know what the exact inflation rate was from 1980-2000.
    all you need to know is that there wasn't a deflation of about -90%, to conclusively prove
    that silver did not come anywhere near close to tracking inflation from 1980-2000.
     
    HH
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