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HawkHybrid

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About HawkHybrid

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  1. exit strategy? risk/reward? (I would buy neither as I'm waiting for better prices on best value sovereigns) HH
  2. climate change is real but not the way it is reported. the earth have cycles of hot and cold just as it has cycles of night and day. the creation of unnatural products such as plastics is separate to climate change. it's a completely different debate that gets lumped in. everything has it's place in moderation. HH
  3. I vote bullion sovereigns HH
  4. we've all heard the fear mongering stories. what can we realistically expect? where are the stories of physical pm's saving someone in britain as opposed to the use of etf's? HH
  5. I feel there's nothing there to build on. (he's better than others though) it's very general fundamental analysis (which I hate as many use fundamentals to mislead people for years or even decades). much of the reasoning is with hindsight. the forward looking insights is not of much use as they are based on news. news does not move the gold price for a sustainable period of time. logic, ie our personal ability to makes sense of the situation does not come into it when markets price goods and services. he left out the most critical input: adding more knowledge and versatility to peoples investments. it's not what he can do for people it should be more of what he can say to better allow people to help themselves. HH
  6. with hindsight the reasons all make sense. I don't see how his expert view has any use. HH
  7. whilst I agree that anyone with more than pocket change in an etf is likely to know what they are doing, etf's are still part of the silver speculation trade. etf's are an alternative to speculating by holding physical or stored silver. people have this 'I must hold physical in my possession mentality' and discard all other forms of speculating on the silver price. remember this, the pumpers that insist that you must hold physical silver despite all it's drawbacks are doing so in order to mislead people to try and increase sales of physical silver. etf's that hold physical silver should definitely be counted towards market cap. HH
  8. it's not about what looks cheap, it's about what best fits your purpose. gold is completely different from silver. they are not interchangeable. and then what? will he sell it? will he time his sales to make it worthwhile choosing silver over gold? does he know that he has to time his sales in silver accurately? (silver is far from a no brainer choice) (one of the best things you can offer to your children is knowledge and guidance to help them deal with this ever changing world) HH
  9. exit strategy. calculate a buy price based on what you are likely to be able to sell it for. fundamental analysis is for those who can't sell their silver at the current market price and need to justify fundamental value in order to sell their silver. ie it's for those who failed to deliver a working exit strategy. low prices can go lower, high prices can go higher. silver happens to be at the lower end of the price range right now but that is not an excuse for not working on a high probability of profit strategy. work on: if I buy now, when can I turn a profit at market prices using realistic data? HH
  10. I not sure how much clearer I can be with this. eg. almost all of the physical silver bullion 2016 kangaroo coins are with us today. the same is true for much of the millions of ase minted in recent years. I'm not deliberately misleading anyone. there is no shortage of these coins or any other recent year silver coins that have been minted in the millions. it's all in physical silver form of a defined purity. the reason why I don't use exist is then you have to define exist above ground and then exists in physical form at the required purity. the use of available is actually closer to the truth than exists. all these physical silver are actually available to be traded using the current market making mechanism. the fact that some choose to withhold physical silver at the current market prices is not an anomaly, it happens all the time. this doesn't change the availability of the silver in a recognised market form. as in an emergency unwilling sellers can still sell silver at current prices. fact is people are buying physical silver at the current prices, (melt plus adjustment for physical delivery). therefore there are also sellers fulfilling the other side of each trade. it may or may not be as high as 250 billion toz but there is a lot of physical silver out there that is already in a tradable form. easily more than 1 billion toz judging from the silver institutes data. if there has been 1 billion toz covering the deficit since 2008, what does that say about the amount out there in a tradable form from unlogged sources? just because we can't see it, doesn't mean it's not true? (the paper silver market is an extension of the physical silver market) HH
  11. for market cap purposes my use of available meaning exists in physical form that can be traded just like any other physical form. (I wasn't suggesting that prized jewellery or premium historic coins are being traded at spot) (maybe I should have used exists instead of available) people are holding onto 0.4 billion toz of physical silver in 2017. it's easy enough to track coins by year minted. I'm assuming very few(%) of the coins minted in recent years have been melted and counted as scrap for subsequent years. it's easy to see that total physical silver above ground can easily exceed the 1 billion toz figure. I think the figures not adding up due to insufficient data makes sense. there are many possible legitimate reasons for this. why would anyone choose to openly declare their pm holdings for all to see? HH
  12. https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/ suggests that minimum available silver is more than a billion toz. (jewellery + silverware + coins and bars make up about 0.4 billion toz per year. I'm guessing everyone still have their coins from last year, and the year before... etc and few have made it to the melt pot at this early stage) HH
  13. elliott wave theory helps to show which outcome has the highest probability of happening. it's not a crystal ball. you are still trading on the fact that on average you should win more times than you lose. the probability of your chart playing out is quite slim as it doesn't make sense in trading terms. HH