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  1. I'm reading it as a 2-3 month rally until another pivotal point. HH
  2. HawkHybrid

    Capital gains tax on Queen's Beasts, a red herring?

    I remember reading on the gov site that legal tender coins are cgt free if they are not sold for more than 80% premium to the melt value. if it fetches a high premium it's classified differently. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/investment-gold-coins-and-vat-notice-70121a HH
  3. HawkHybrid

    Platinum as an investment

    the article was written in 2013 when the platinum price was $1200. economies of scale means mining more will result in better prices per ounce. I don't believe you can only profitably mine 1/10th of that of gold. it's more likely that you can't sell 10 times the production. if 1/3rd of platinum mined goes into vehicles then imagine how could you possibly sell 10 times the number of vehicles or find other sales markets to make up the numbers. imo limited demand is much more likely why they don't ramp up production. HH
  4. HawkHybrid

    Bear Signs

    I do think a recession is coming because of the hammering the stock market is getting. lower lows(nasdaq futures different calendar months), never a good sign for continuing bulls. HH
  5. HawkHybrid

    Bear Signs

    what I'm saying is it's not a forward indicator. it's the result of. whatever caused the inverted curve has probably created the recession already. only the recession is reported as 2 quarters of negative growth ie it takes 3 quarters before any current recession is reported.(notice how they say recession likely nine months later, is this a convenience or a reporting technicality?) don't a 10 year bond carry the risk of default in the first 2 years + an additional 8 years risk of default? is it not always more risky than a 2 year bond? HH
  6. HawkHybrid

    Bear Signs

    that's the point. it's a disconnect of the system similar to negative interest rates. HH
  7. HawkHybrid

    Bear Signs

    I don't buy the yield curve inverting thing. sounds like more interest rate myths HH
  8. HawkHybrid

    Platinum as an investment

    I don't like how positive platinum biased the article is. if there is as much platinum as there is gold and we currently mine only 1/10th in platinum as we do in gold, what happens when we add the remaining 9/10th potential production? HH
  9. HawkHybrid

    Gold Monitoring Thread £ only

    I think mass measurable currency deflation is a myth. if currency deflation is too many goods/services chasing too few currency in circulation, and banks can use fractional reserve banking to balance currency flow by the use of assets(goods and services), then won't banks be able to balance the flow of currency indefinitely? (this is very different to money deflation where you need time to mine and mint the gold coins in question) HH
  10. HawkHybrid

    Gold Monitoring Thread £ only

    for the record I am not a harry dent supporter and have always thought his claims of a coming $700 gold price to be 'optimistic'. it's not an article that defends harry dent. it just mentions his way of predicting. HH
  11. HawkHybrid

    Silver dates and prices

    each example of a time stamp in history has it own place in a collection. it makes little difference for those buying for bullion value only. HH
  12. HawkHybrid

    Gold Monitoring Thread £ only

    the article shows a possibility of where harry dent might have misinterpreted the charts to arrive at his conclusion. knowing where others might have gone wrong is also trying to get a better understanding of the situation. HH
  13. HawkHybrid

    Sold all my gold, got stung

    in elliott wave terms the wave that started 2009 might be the 5th wave of the larger wave that started 2007. ie it's a smaller bull trend within a larger bull trend. hence the trend support. it's a wave of a lesser degree than the retracement wave starting 2011. that's why fib retracement don't fit(you're miss matching waves of different degrees). my best guess is minor wave 1 and major bull wave starting 2006. minor wave 1 ended early 2006. minor wave 3 of bull wave starts on the blue hammerhead and continues to 2008 peak. 2009 bottom starts minor wave 5 which ends 2011. being a wave 5 also means it ends the wave of a higher degree which in this case is the larger wave that is 2006-2011. I'm only guessing here. HH
  14. HawkHybrid

    Sold all my gold, got stung

    what's more important? something that might help explain what is happening now or something that helps explain what has happened but the opportunity to trade is well and truly over? (charting is flexible, I would use what works regardless of how illogical it seems ie use both) didn't you find it odd that your 78.6% predicted retracement didn't land exactly on the support zone ~$1000? (so either the retracement would hit support at ~$1000 and bounce, or it would break support at ~$1000 and then bounce just below it at 78.6% support ie not get the follow through after it broke support) HH
  15. HawkHybrid

    Sold all my gold, got stung

    misconception of charting. charting is not a crystal ball. it's like counting cards in a card game. it might increase your probability of winning overall, but is not guaranteed. at any point the market can still go both ways, but the odds of it moving in any one direction changes depending on the 'sum' of what has happened before that. trading is a zero sum game. there must be losers for there to be winners. hence everyone cannot trade using charts to be millionaires(winners). HH