Errors & Mules question

[Kman]

The Pobjoy Britannia and Scotsdale leopard have been hyped up lately

Is there an example of a mule/error coin/medal from a non government mint that has gone on to do well?

I just can't see the value of them beyond* spot, but as above, that's because I don't know of any examples to say otherwise. 

[Lea79]

I don't know of any examples of precious metal coins that have been made in error and the resale values but the IOM 2016 xmas pud 50 went on sale for about 10 quid.  750 were minted and at 1 point during the hype sold for 130 quid.  Now worth about 75 quid.

Same thing with the recent northern rockhopper 50p.  Seems they have a huge hype when the error is confirmed.  Then it dies down.  Still seem to settle a lot over issue price though.

[Jester]

47 minutes ago, Lea79 said:

I don't know of any examples of precious metal coins that have been made in error and the resale values but the IOM 2016 xmas pud 50 went on sale for about 10 quid.  750 were minted and at 1 point during the hype sold for 130 quid.  Now worth about 75 quid.

Same thing with the recent northern rockhopper 50p.  Seems they have a huge hype when the error is confirmed.  Then it dies down.  Still seem to settle a lot over issue price though.

Key words and phrases highlighted...

There's a whole thread on the Leopard coin in the Silver section and recently a member posted pics of the coin(s) they received and the quality was shyt.  It's an attractively designed bullion coin by a private mint and nothing more IMO (as was the 2017 Cayman Islands Marlin Coin also done by Scottsdale).  I just think you (collective "you", not speaking to anyone specifically) can fall into the hype trap and the next thing you know, you're spending your valuable (and for most of us, limited) PM dollars/pounds/euros chasing the next Silver bullion "error" hoping it'll be a rock star.  Why not also buy the 2017 Pobjoy 35th Anniversary of the Falklands Liberation Commemorative with the "Britannia Rules The Waves" trademark violation?

Don't get me wrong, if collecting this type of Silver coin is your passion and your PM strategy then that's exactly what you should pursue and damn what anyone thinks of it.  

Final thought...While I don't think any of us would turn our noses up at an opportunity to snag a sleeper before it blows up or take advantage of an opportunity for a fairly sure flip, I'd like to think most of the folks on this Forum are disciplined, informed collectors/stackers who don't get too distracted by the hype and "the next big thing".  Maybe I'm out of my tree on this, who knows.  Just my $0.02

[Kman]

If 

2 hours ago, Lea79 said:

I don't know of any examples of precious metal coins that have been made in error and the resale values

There was a mule 2014 Britannia, the Queens side had a plain edge by mistake, can't remember how many there were suppose to be. 

Looking at Ebay they seem to sell for at least £40, so that's not a bad premium if you got them around spot at the time 

But this is a Royal Mint coin from an established series so very different to a random mint with random coin. 

[sovereignsteve]

35 minutes ago, Kman said:

There was a mule 2014 Britannia, the Queens side had a plain edge by mistake, can't remember how many there were suppose to be. 

I have a figure of 17k in my head, not sure if that's correct without looking it up. I think the other side of the 2014 mule pair, the Britannia obverse coupled with the lunar horse reverse is supposed to be more common but in my experience, you don't see so many for sale.

[augur]

14 hours ago, Lea79 said:

I don't know of any examples of precious metal coins that have been made in error and the resale values but the IOM 2016 xmas pud 50 went on sale for about 10 quid.  750 were minted and at 1 point during the hype sold for 130 quid.  Now worth about 75 quid.

Same thing with the recent northern rockhopper 50p.  Seems they have a huge hype when the error is confirmed.  Then it dies down.  Still seem to settle a lot over issue price though.

That sounds promising. If my leopard quadruples or even just doubles, that's already worthwhile. The side with the quality issue is the head mostly and far sub par to the Marlin. 

The die size of the 100 Cedis obverse is smaller than the reverse, while the 5 Cedis (don't have one) seems to have the same size as the reverse. Denomination wise it could have been a mockup for a gold coin which then was accidentally used to run the first batch.

So die size, die quality and denomination make this likely to be a (so far unconfirmed) error. Goldsilver.be is selling their last dozens already up €4 from last week; that is nearly 40% more than the 5 Cedis coin and that's not the londoncoincompany but rather a low premium PM dealer. If one likes the design, the 5 Cedis is likely better but in regards to ROI the 100 Cedis is starting to get close to the performance of the 2017 proof and brilliant uncirculated range. 

[augur]

12 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

I have a figure of 17k in my head

17k is quite a large number for a british bullion coin opposed to 5k for an american one since the markets for silver stackers are vastly different in size. There surely will be a hype but key will be to get in before it starts. 

[Jester]

5 hours ago, augur said:

That sounds promising. If my leopard quadruples or even just doubles, that's already worthwhile. The side with the quality issue is the head mostly and far sub par to the Marlin. 

The die size of the 100 Cedis obverse is smaller than the reverse, while the 5 Cedis (don't have one) seems to have the same size as the reverse. Denomination wise it could have been a mockup for a gold coin which then was accidentally used to run the first batch.

So die size, die quality and denomination make this likely to be a (so far unconfirmed) error. Goldsilver.be is selling their last dozens already up €4 from last week; that is nearly 40% more than the 5 Cedis coin and that's not the londoncoincompany but rather a low premium PM dealer. If one likes the design, the 5 Cedis is likely better but in regards to ROI the 100 Cedis is starting to get close to the performance of the 2017 proof and brilliant uncirculated range. 

So I'm curious...I see the method to your madness if you're looking to get in early, capitalize on the hype and double, triple or hopefully even quadruple your money and then get out.  The problem I have with this particular coin is if people are thinking this will end up being one of the numismatic greats 5, 10, 15+ years from now.  One that you should buy as many as you can, hold on to them and watch them help you pad your retirement nest egg decades from now.  If that's the case, I'd argue that it won't be a footnote to a footnote in the pages of numismatic lore over a longer period of time.  As someone who has decided to purchase the coin(s), where are you at on this?

[augur]

36 minutes ago, Jester said:

The problem I have with this particular coin is if people are thinking this will end up being one of the numismatic greats 5, 10, 15+ years from now.

No one ever claimed that this coin will be on of the numismatic greats. A curiosity yes.

Which value it will hold one day nobody will know for sure and will depend on the interest it generates. Well preserved pieces will likely demand a premium. 

I got mine early and if Scottsdale would raise the veil of clouds surrounding this coin, it would be easier to predict the future. Maybe when the first have been graded we can see clearer. Depending on that I will flip the lot or keep the premium examples. 

[Kman]

6 minutes ago, augur said:

Which value it will hold one day nobody will know for sure and will depend on the interest it generates. Well preserved pieces will likely demand a premium. 

That's why I think it's good to look at history for examples

Have there been any similar cases of coins like these doing well? 

If the answer is no then it wouldn't fill me with confidence buying one of these at a premium. 

[Moi]

First profit is the best profit, though I'm saving one of two in lieu of unexpected longevity. In their favour both have an angle of being spontaneously different.You can see mints straining the bit to decorate each new coin in increasing extravagant devices. It's becoming much more calculated.

 

[augur]

57 minutes ago, Kman said:

Have there been any similar cases of coins like these doing well?

 

18 hours ago, Lea79 said:

The IOM 2016 xmas pud 50 went on sale for about 10 quid. Now worth about 75 quid.

Same thing with the recent northern rockhopper 50p. Still seem to settle a lot over issue price though.

 

[Kman]

@augur

Were those two coins mules/errors? 

[Moi]

Dragon & Phoenix, is quite well known for now anyway. 

[augur]

47 minutes ago, Kman said:

@augur

Were those two coins mules/errors? 

Sorry but I don't know ? ask @Lea79 who posted that content. 

I also don't understand why an error on a current coin of the Royal Mint would have more bearing than an error of the Scottsdale Mint. The RM may have a 1000 year history but SM has much higher mintage without errors or milk issues. 

[Kman]

33 minutes ago, augur said:

I also don't understand why an error on a current coin of the Royal Mint would have more bearing than an error of the Scottsdale Mint. The RM may have a 1000 year history but SM has much higher mintage without errors or milk issues. 

Because the Royal Mint history and prestige + a strong collector base (for certain coins)  

Rare varieties of said coins of course are going to command a higher premium

If I start making medals out of my garage tomorrow why should anyone give a fudge

 

[augur]

48 minutes ago, Kman said:

Because the Royal Mint history and prestige + a strong collector base (for certain coins)  

If I start making medals out of my garage tomorrow why should anyone give a fudge

I am sure the Royal Mint is held in high regard on this island. But Scottsdale Mint for silver bullion over here is probably more regarded than the US Mint. And although I couldn't find any figures (no news articles or Wikipedia entry (!)) I am sure they turn out a few more tons than @BackyardBullion. 

It doesn't matter if @Kman or all the @sovereigns give a fudge; only if @JohnDoe gives a fudge this coin will do well. And there are a lot of silver stackers in the US who will have either coins and/or bars from Scottsdale in their stack.

So 5.000 (maybe 2.500 if the mint bought half of the production back) error coins suddenly becomes a small number and to pay $40 or $60 for such a curious coin is not completely outlandish.

The sovereign does so well because it is an "affordable" gold coin but access to this market is limited to most. A 1oz silver coin is affordable to almost anyone and this error coin is probably the most "affordable" one to be had still at a release price. 

Sorry, didn't want to hijack the thread with the ghanian leopards but since you asked 

[Kman]

7 minutes ago, augur said:

So 5.000 (maybe 2.500 if the mint bought half of the production back) error coins suddenly becomes a small number and to pay $40 or $60 for such a curious coin is not completely outlandish.

Is the Ghana leopard from a well collected series? 

[BackyardBullion]

28 minutes ago, augur said:

I am sure the Royal Mint is held in high regard on this island. But Scottsdale Mint for silver bullion over here is probably more regarded than the US Mint. And although I couldn't find any figures (no news articles or Wikipedia entry (!)) I am sure they turn out a few more tons than @BackyardBullion. 

It doesn't matter if @Kman or all the @sovereigns give a fudge; only if @JohnDoe gives a fudge this coin will do well. And there are a lot of silver stackers in the US who will have either coins and/or bars from Scottsdale in their stack.

So 5.000 (maybe 2.500 if the mint bought half of the production back) error coins suddenly becomes a small number and to pay $40 or $60 for such a curious coin is not completely outlandish.

The sovereign does so well because it is an "affordable" gold coin but access to this market is limited to most. A 1oz silver coin is affordable to almost anyone and this error coin is probably the most "affordable" one to be had still at a release price. 

Sorry, didn't want to hijack the thread with the ghanian leopards but since you asked 

Maybe if I get to the stage I am pumping out a couple of tons a year I will make a few errors. Who knows maybe a Backyard Bullion mint error bar will be a rare and valuable thing!

[Lea79]

2 hours ago, augur said:

Sorry but I don't know ? ask @Lea79 who posted that content. 

I also don't understand why an error on a current coin of the Royal Mint would have more bearing than an error of the Scottsdale Mint. The RM may have a 1000 year history but SM has much higher mintage without errors or milk issues. 

The 2017 northern rockhopper was a confirmed error by pobjoy.  They printed the wrong penguin on it haha.  They sent everyone a letter and offered a replacement.  I can imagine no1 took them up on their offer.  The price shot straight up.  Then calmed down a few wks later.

The iom xmas 50p wasn't an error come to think about it.  750 where minted then pobjoy lost the contact and no more were aloud to be minted.  

I would imagine the coins you are referring too would do the same.  The fact we have this thread on them makes me think on publicity alone the price will rise for the near future at least.

[Kman]

1 minute ago, Lea79 said:

The 2017 northern rockhopper was a confirmed error by pobjoy.  They printed the wrong penguin on it haha.  They sent everyone a letter and offered a replacement.  I can imagine no1 took them up on their offer.  The price shot straight up.  Then calmed down a few wks later.

It makes you think Pobjoy are just doing these things on purpose 

[Lea79]

I thought this the second time around too.  Expecially as the penguin was the first coin on the series.  I bought 3 tho so either was I'm happy ?.

[augur]

6 minutes ago, Lea79 said:

I bought 3 [penguins] so either way I'm happy ?.

Did you sell them in the end?

I guess after the google rockhopper penguin advert people were more switched on what that little guy really looks like ?

[Kman]

11 minutes ago, Lea79 said:

I thought this the second time around too.  Expecially as the penguin was the first coin on the series.  I bought 3 tho so either was I'm happy ?.

The penguin side is ok but.. my god, poor Queenie, added 50lbs to her

[Lea79]

Lol the quality wasn't too good either.  I sold 1 kept 2.  I'll prob sell another 1 at some point.