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forgottenmemorie

Silver Price Forecast Thread

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Still think it's gunna rise it's gone up a bit just over last 9 days I was put off with the vat in UK but byb made me find out about goldsilver.be and there much better price but I buy more gold than silver but the odd silver coin comes out and I buy them 

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23 minutes ago, Goldmick said:

Still think it's gunna rise it's gone up a bit just over last 9 days I was put off with the vat in UK but byb made me find out about goldsilver.be and there much better price but I buy more gold than silver but the odd silver coin comes out and I buy them 

Yeah as long as they deliver soon enough!

I don't want to organise another one until things are sorted with this one!

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4 minutes ago, BackyardBullion said:

Yeah as long as they deliver soon enough!

I don't want to organise another one until things are sorted with this one!

Lol yer be nice when it comes thanks dude

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Old news by now but Silver institute report has some interesting numbers for 2016 (looking back might help with our predictions);

http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/2017/05/11/global-silver-mine-production-drops-in-2016-for-first-time-in-14-years/

Older figures to compare, just scroll down a bit for the numbers going back to 2009;

http://www.silverstandard.com/mf/

For 2016, the interesting things that stood out;

Overall mine production/supply saw its first decline since 2002, caused by less secondary silver output from the lead/zinc and gold sectors. Only a small decline of 5 million ounces but still, this is looking bullish...

Silver supply from scrap also fell 1.4 million ounces, and supply from scrap has now fallen to levels last seen in 1996. Still looking bullish!

Total demand for physical across all combined sectors decreased by 11% yoy caused mainly by falls in investment demand, jewellery and silverware. Use of silver in solar panel production saw a 34% rise, every other industrial sector saw slight falls (recession indicator perhaps?). Not so bullish!

Physical investment demand for coins/bars, jewellery and ETF's/all-that-silver-backed-paper-vehicle-stuff has decreased by 7% yoy. We can thank our speculator friends buying ETF's for keeping investment demand as high as it was; if you look at the physical production of investment bullion (bars and coins) we are looking at a demand decrease of 28%. How long will the ETF type speculators hang around do you think. Not so bullish.

All that said, overall the figures say that while demand and supply have both fallen, on balance there is still a huge deficit in supply, growing from last year. This is very bullish should the trend continue. But, I said last year that I was watching the physical investor demand in particular, as the gradual increase year on year in investor demand made it appear as if it would over take industrial demand and therefore swap the nature of the metal, from a commodity first and investment metal second. This has not come to pass yet, but who knows how this years figures will look in hindsight. 

I don't think we will see silver above $20 before the end of the year, but who the hell knows! Anything could happen. Personally I am not accumulating a lot of the metal, just buying the odd coins I like. I am looking to gold as a savings vehicle this year, hoping for some sterling strength later in the year, and I have my core holding of silver bars/flatware as a punt and some diversification. Not much but enough to keep my hand in and be interested.    

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13 minutes ago, KDave said:

Old news by now but Silver institute report has some interesting numbers for 2016 (looking back might help with our predictions);

http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/2017/05/11/global-silver-mine-production-drops-in-2016-for-first-time-in-14-years/

Older figures to compare, just scroll down a bit for the numbers going back to 2009;

http://www.silverstandard.com/mf/

For 2016, the interesting things that stood out;

Overall mine production/supply saw its first decline since 2002, caused by less secondary silver output from the lead/zinc and gold sectors. Only a small decline of 5 million ounces but still, this is looking bullish...

Silver supply from scrap also fell 1.4 million ounces, and supply from scrap has now fallen to levels last seen in 1996. Still looking bullish!

Total demand for physical across all combined sectors decreased by 11% yoy caused mainly by falls in investment demand, jewellery and silverware. Use of silver in solar panel production saw a 34% rise, every other industrial sector saw slight falls (recession indicator perhaps?). Not so bullish!

Physical investment demand for coins/bars, jewellery and ETF's/all-that-silver-backed-paper-vehicle-stuff has decreased by 7% yoy. We can thank our speculator friends buying ETF's for keeping investment demand as high as it was; if you look at the physical production of investment bullion (bars and coins) we are looking at a demand decrease of 28%. How long will the ETF type speculators hang around do you think. Not so bullish.

All that said, overall the figures say that while demand and supply have both fallen, on balance there is still a huge deficit in supply, growing from last year. This is very bullish should the trend continue. But, I said last year that I was watching the physical investor demand in particular, as the gradual increase year on year in investor demand made it appear as if it would over take industrial demand and therefore swap the nature of the metal, from a commodity first and investment metal second. This has not come to pass yet, but who knows how this years figures will look in hindsight. 

I don't think we will see silver above $20 before the end of the year, but who the hell knows! Anything could happen. Personally I am not accumulating a lot of the metal, just buying the odd coins I like. I am looking to gold as a savings vehicle this year, hoping for some sterling strength later in the year, and I have my core holding of silver bars/flatware as a punt and some diversification. Not much but enough to keep my hand in and be interested.    

Good info

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19 minutes ago, forgottenmemorie said:

It was on the Bullion front I wanted to make some head way. But like you mention it look bullish which rules that out. i can see silver sport reaching £14 this year.

Well it does and it doesn't, depends how you look at it :P

Bullish factors are the huge overall deficit in supply (again), but with a fair whack of demand last year coming from shorter term speculative elements, this is potentially misleading. It depends where you think speculative demand will go for the rest of this year, personally after the sharp rises in 2016, unless we see the same again in the later part of this year, I think you can forget it. Perhaps we will see net outflows again for 2017? Looks to me like bitcoin and the like have been and still are getting all of the speculative attention this year. 

The trend for industrial demand is down since 2010 in all sectors, except photovoltaic which may or may not pick up the slack. Investor demand for physical has fallen massively year on year, not likely to change to the upside again for reasons above. These are not bullish factors for silver. The saving grace is the fall in supply, but with average prices higher in 2016 and since, perhaps this will change (mining supply up this year?). 

We have seen a supply deficit in silver as far back as the data goes btw, so that should tell you something about its impact on the price, and also something about the investment case overall. Its always been bullish, but try telling that to the spot price...

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Just buy what you can on an ongoing basis.

Most of us think that silver is undervalued in the overall scheme of things, and we would still think that if it went up another 20% this year. That doesn't mean it can't get become more undervalued, though.

 

If it goes up then you'll be glad that you bought some when it was cheaper. If it goes down then you can be glad that you are able to buy more oz's for your money.

Or you could just procastinate and then finally rush in when it's £50 like the majority of johnny come latelys will do.

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My 2p's worth...

Current spot: £13.33

Anything under £13.60/oz is a bargain,

Anything under £12.30/oz would result in me purchasing significant amounts,

Anything under £10.50/oz...there probably won't be much supply around, but would try my utmost to grab everything I could before it touched £10.00/oz

Market sentiment is very bearish towards Silver right now, in my eyes that's a good time to buy. In retrospect, when everyone is talking about Silver and the amazing returns/ 'It's going to the moon/£10000/oz' etc etc, and every-man and his dog is rushing out to buy it (like in 2011)...that would be the time to sell ;).

If you want my predictions for now (June 1st 2017 - June 2018), we may drop to those figures above, but I'm thinking (based on charts and throwing chicken bones) that Silver has spectacular upside if it breaches 21 Dollars/oz.  

Silver is volatile, and my advice would be to buy some now and then purchase once a month over several months until you hit your amount wanted. Any drops in price will be a bonus, any rises in price then wait for the buying dips. I've been a buyer from £14.50 to £12.50 and will continue if we drop to £10.

My price predictions:

Dec 2017: £15/oz or above

June 2018: £22/oz or above

Could I be wrong? Absolutely and most probably certainly. However, I can handle the swings and if we see £10 I won't be as bothered as I would be if we see astronomical prices before I've finished accumulating at these levels. :)

In the attached graphic, If point 4 is the 2011 high in Gold and Silver, I believe we could be (as of June 2017) between points 13 and 14.

 

funny chart.jpg

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People need to get their heads out of the FIAT mindset by letting GBP price determine your sentiment.

If you are a stacker then your goal is to acquire OUNCES. Cost only matters in as much as it determines how many ounces you can purchase for your labour.

I stack at the current price of £13.xx for the same reason that I stacked at £10, £11, £16, and why I'll continue to stack whether silver doubles or halves in the next few years - to accumulate more ounces as a means of insurance and preserving long term purchasing power.

 

Also, let me assure you that when you COMMIT to making regular (eg monthly) purchases, you will inevitably catch some selloffs, and also some spikes, but over the long run it is remarkable how much it evens out, and then you have enough ounces that the next batch hardly affects your average stack price at all.

Edited by vand

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2 hours ago, vand said:

People need to get their heads out of the FIAT mindset by letting GBP price determine your sentiment.

If you are a stacker then your goal is to acquire OUNCES. Cost only matters in as much as it determines how many ounces you can purchase for your labour.

I stack at the current price of £13.xx for the same reason that I stacked at £10, £11, £16, and why I'll continue to stack whether silver doubles or halves in the next few years - to accumulate more ounces as a means of insurance and preserving long term purchasing power.

 

Also, let me assure you that when you COMMIT to making regular (eg monthly) purchases, you will inevitably catch some selloffs, and also some spikes, but over the long run it is remarkable how much it evens out, and then you have enough ounces that the next batch hardly affects your average stack price at all.

Interesting point about labour, my haircut today cost just under an once of silver in fiat. It took about 30 mins. Some tongue in cheek maths:

For 2000 years, a daily wage for labour was 1/10th to 1/15th of an ounce. (Click for article here:Brief 2000 year history of silver prices)

Therefore my haircut should have cost: 

Say an average of 1/12.5th oz of silver a day for barber:

1/12.5th silver =  divided by say 10 haircuts/day @ 30 mins each = 1/12.5 x 32g = 2.66g silver per Day/10 haircuts= 0.266 gms per haircut.

Now, my barber has a business to run, so lets be generous and double it, 0.266 x 2= 0.53 grams per haircut.

0.53grms = 1/60th oz silver per haircut.

So,

Current Silver price is £13.33/oz, so 1/60x13.33 = my haircut should cost £0.22p :D

OR

I should give my barber 1/60th oz silver next time :unsure:

OR

As I paid £13, Silver should be £13 for 0.53grms.

32gms per Ty oz / 0.53  = 60.37 x 13 = £784.90/oz 

Therefore, Silver is 60 times undervalued against its 2000 year historic average if measured in barber labour and at £13.33/oz instead of £784/oz is a bargain.

Now, maths hurt my head, so I'm off to drink a cold beer in the sunshine and be thankful I'm going to be OK for loads of haircuts if true price discovery in Silver is allowed to happen in my lifetime B):D

 

 

 

Edited by RichRock

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These comparisons are interesting, but I am struggling to find any indicators as to where the price of silver 'should' be. The reasons I hear a lot on how silver is undervalued are;

1/10 ounce of silver was the average wage for millennia, so silver is undervalued compared to history. 

9 times as much silver is mined compared to gold, so therefore silver should be priced somewhere around £100 an ounce.

Often these are the reasons given of why silver is undervalued when pointing to the silver/gold price ratio of 70-1.

The reality is these factors do not seem to matter to the price of silver. If you reverse this, and ask, why is gold worth so much more than silver, or why are people paid so much more than they were historically, we might come to a somewhat logical answer, but we are still making the picture fit the price.

Also interestingly, the annual deficit in supply reported every single year by the silver institute, but this is apparently not a factor in determining the price of the physical metal. How can one make a judgement of the value of silver when the primary driver of price, supply and demand, apparently does not matter to the price?

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Gold & silver vs base money, and vs Dow are the key measures I use to determine what I think is fair price. By these measures gold should be several orders of magnitude higher, but we know bull markets always exaggerate movements, so historical fair value is 8:1 on Dow:Gold, I would expect the forces that drive it to that level to continue drive it down much lower still. Dow:gold has been as low as 1:1 and as high as 45:1. Major macro trends tend to play out over a generation, not just a few years. Public sentiment should not be underestimated, either. You will know when gold is overpriced and it is time to get out and look for the next big macro trend because your Guardianista workmates will talking about how their precious metals ETF fund has doubled in the last year and how the're going to double every year for the next decade and how you "can't lose" when buying gold.

Look at bitcoin action in the last 18 months - this is how market tops look. Silver? We have the complete opposite. 

 

Edited by vand

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The idea of comparing base money vs silver is a good one if only to track inflation or lack thereof of prices, and where it perhaps 'should' be in relation to others, but then we are back to ratios. The oil/gold/silver ratio used to be a core chart to measure the value of precious metals, but apparently this has been 'broken' since oil crashed. Now we can look at this and say, something has fundamentally changed in regards to oil and energy, which may be the case and where I am leaning, or we could look at this and say, if one ratio is worthless so are the rest. Fundamentally, silver is a mixed bag as far as investment today goes - supply falling for now, one industry use growing explosively, but also falls across the board for other uses including as investment, with supply increases on the way from mines (higher average prices last year). There is one certain thing about silver and that is sustained lower prices will cause supply shortages, which means the downside to the metal in real terms, is low. We are no where near all time highs. On balance, I think it has far more upside than downside. Balancing up all of those factors though, then adding in the fact that there is always a reported deficit balance on the physical supply side and it leaves me scratching my head as to the price action over the past 10 years, and wondering whether the fundamentals are worthless too, as daft as it sounds.

I agree that sentiment is a reliable rough finger in the air indicator of tops and bottoms. There is a lot of negative to uncertain sentiment for the metals, in silver in particular at the moment. Anecdotally, it seems the same crowd that bought silver to get rich are moving into crypto's to get rich, which is perhaps a good indicator in favour of silver, but perhaps not. Ultimately, I agree with your earlier post of committing to buying until you are happy with your position, being disciplined and average in over time and at the end you will have real wealth bought at good prices, with much more chance of upside than downside over a long time period.

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I definitely think that all the hot speculative money in the "anti-fiat" brigade has flooded into cryptos. The charts for most of them will look like your typical dotcom bust when all is said and done. One or two cryptos will no doubt survive and rise from the ashes, but the whole sector has to go through the bubble/crash for this to happen.

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You’ll have to excuse my barber labour/silver calculations in my last post, bit of silliness to pass the time the other day.

On a more serious note, I have put a few thoughts together on why silver price is subdued at the moment.

BITULIP:

I agree that new money has ditched silver, cashed in and run into cyrpto’s. Current sentiment towards cyrptos is extremely bullish and a quick scan brings up the old ‘Going to £1 million, moonshot etc etc’. Many have been swept into this phenomenon and I must agree the price rises have been stellar. However, I also agree they are in a bubble, somewhere in a blow off top. Where the top of that is I do not know, but I, like many others, recognise the signs and serious investors are not purchasing at these levels, only retail. Retail always buy in at tops and sell at bottoms.

Another phenomenon I have noticed over the last few months is the amount of You-tube etc Silver shills/pump and dumpers suddenly switching to Bitcoin from silver and their loyal followers being blindly sucked in by the hype. These shills are the very same who promised the Silver $10,000 moonshots etc when we were approaching the 2011 high and I use them as a somewhat entertainment gauge for my contrarian trading patterns.

I personally believe many are going to get burnt when that bubble pops, as it certainly must do. I would expect at least a 50% retracement from current cryto levels before more serious investors jump in again.

Silver is a dead horse, they say. The new money has ditched and followed the latest bubble. The old money and serious money is quietly scooping up as much as they can at these low silver prices and waiting for the day when the bubble pops, and every man and his dog suddenly run into gold and silver. It doesn’t have to be crypto’s that pop, we are currently in bubbles across the world in housing, stocks and bonds. Cracks are beginning to appear in China, Canada and Australia. Several of Italy and Spain’s banks look ready to pop very soon. China was downgraded last week and everyone is still marching on to the beat of the drum with utter complacency.

FRED M2 Money Velocity released for Q1 on 26th May shows yet another fall in $ velocity (graph below) and as you know the DOW and FTSE etc are in extreme bubble territory. UK M2 supply is just, well, what can I say?

An extreme high in assets and an extreme low in velocity is not a sign that all is fine.

There are more signs than I can shake a stick at across the board. We are well overdue a significant correction across all markets.

How long can this keep going? Unsure, but many money managers have pulled funds out and are sitting on the sidelines.

I remember when I was trading (FX mostly) through 2008, that the signs where there months before the crash. Public sentiment was running high, smart money had cashed in and was waiting for the dip. They got the dip, but it went much lower than my most extreme projections. I did quite well shorting Cable for a couple thousand points down to the 1.30’s but I also remember being told what an idiot I was for shorting and building up my positions through those seeming never ending monthly pin bars (6-7 months from Jan 08 to Aug 08) at 1.99~.

Many told me those technicals signalled a rise to above 2.13 and after a few months I also began to have my doubts, but public sentiment was hyper bullish and I was sure the bubble in assets couldn’t keep going up at the time. I also remember Alistair Darling MP flying over to the USA to meet with the FED and then sitting on a sofa in a news room back in the UK saying to the news presenter something along the lines of ‘Look, there is nothing wrong with the UK market and no reason to panic, we are in great shape...’. The cracks where everywhere and one thing I know is when a politician says ‘Don’t panic’...it means panic. The markets certainly got that panic soon after.

The rest is history as they say, but history does repeat. Here we are again, but now with much greater exposure than 2008. This one will be spectacular and may make 2008 look like a pothole that was clipped as we descend into the alpine pass.

So, the markets are lying, the politicans are lying, retail is buying, smart is on sidelines and I suspect some MM's are heavily in PM’s.

Miners are doing badly recently, Silver is unloved.

I have been buying silver, I love the unloved.

 

fredgraph.png

united-kingdom-money-supply-m2.png

 

69398ad55397e4e338bc0b9e2cc14a71.jpg

Edited by RichRock

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On 6/5/2017 at 21:03, RichRock said:

Another phenomenon I have noticed over the last few months is the amount of You-tube etc Silver shills/pump and dumpers suddenly switching to Bitcoin from silver and their loyal followers being blindly sucked in by the hype. These shills are the very same who promised the Silver $10,000 moonshots etc when we were approaching the 2011 high and I use them as a somewhat entertainment gauge for my contrarian trading patterns

Exactly, jsnip4 and Bix Weir come to mind.  Jsnip4 is even looking at McMansions he's gonna buy with his Bit-fortunes! (same guy who was making videos about the housing bust 2.0 lately)

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19 hours ago, vand said:

I have eToro ads for Bitcoin and Ethereum all over my facebook feed. I think once they are pitching for the shoeshiners on social media then it's as sure a sign of a bubble top as you can get.

Scrolling around media etc, I may have found another new modern sign of a bubble, they're making songs about Bitcoin now. :lol: 

I'm not into rap, but it's interesting to see the use of graphics throughout the clip showing rockets, moon shots etc. 

 

In my earlier post I mentioned about cracks in China, Spanish banks etc; well, a day after that was posted, as you know we have had Banco Popular collapse (sold for one Euro lol) and now it seems today China is saying something along the lines of...'Don't Panic...'.

China Says "Don't Panic" As Yield Curve Inversion Deepens Amid Liquidity Collapse

I wonder if they'll step back this time or fix that with a bit more 'back door' QE sellotape again?:

e48758588b4326af7537619358e3c14e.thumb.jpg.7483645fb206520fb889246d9c69faa4.jpg

 

 

 

Edited by RichRock
typos

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I'm in a hold position with silver, mostly because I have enough to enjoy a moonshot if it comes, but if the opposite happens, I'll buy more on a sharp decline.  Doesn't mean I won't make an occasional purchase, but nothing big.   So basically I'm not anticipating any big moves in either direction, but if/when they come I'll act accordingly.

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On 6/13/2017 at 00:02, tbone said:

Exactly, jsnip4 and Bix Weir come to mind.  Jsnip4 is even looking at McMansions he's gonna buy with his Bit-fortunes! (same guy who was making videos about the housing bust 2.0 lately)

BitCON dropped from $3000 over $900 in last  few days. Silver shills screaming 'Buy' at these low levels...FFS, I normally wouldn't give a toss, bubble and all, but I read on some of their youtube comments (Bix Weir) about an old lady (70 yrs +) who had invested everything when Silver was $40? plus (couple of monster boxes), saying that she believed them and now what to do...she sold her silver and bought BitCON at $2950 JUST BEFORE IT DROPPED TO $2100, A $850 DROP (low of $2100 today) before a dead cat bounce (could breach recent highs, but who knows?), as we predicted here. (For those new here, check above posts and time/date stamps before jumping in that we weren't calling a bubble please). She is actually desperate and it made me think twice about  what damage these shills are doing with their $199 subscriptions. We know, drops on the way up or down are normal, but they are enough to shake out pensioners and the unwary late money.

Now, I don't normally care about who does what, I am unemotional in trading, but trust me, when old people get conned out of their savings by shills for income that they have worked their whole lives for, then watch out, I get defensive and emotional like a rabid dog whose nuts are being rubbed in a rusty cheese grater.

I may start my own thread/free channel/blog/youtube? (Havent got a clue about that stuff, but know how to trade), taking the 'RichRock' view of what s going to happen, and call these mother *'s out, simply because I have humanity. I am thinking of starting a new thread and posting my trades there for all to follow. Sorry, but this got my goat and I hate to see the vulnerable being shafted by so called 'Experts'. 

Comment is from Elizabeth Perry to Bix Weir: (ps I won't link to his video, because that would earn him more much needed pennies in addition to the grannies he rips off), but if search Bix Weir Silver cry babies that may be enough for you to mobilise troops.

 

 

 

2017-06-15 (5).png

Edited by RichRock
update and typos

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52 minutes ago, RichRock said:

I may start my own free channel/blog/youtube? (Havent got a clue about that stuff, but know how to trade), taking the 'RichRock' view of what s going to happen, and call these mother *'s out

You should @RichRock .  I do support the right of anyone (including these guys) to say what they want, come up with whatever backstory they want (I'm reminded of Lindsey Williams and his "elite friend", or Bix's "good guy vs bad guy" theories), and even to charge subscriptions or just collect $ from youtube.  Everyone should invest at their own risk.  But there isn't a lot of push back that I can see. 

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21 minutes ago, tbone said:

You should @RichRock .  I do support the right of anyone (including these guys) to say what they want, come up with whatever backstory they want (I'm reminded of Lindsey Williams and his "elite friend", or Bix's "good guy vs bad guy" theories), and even to charge subscriptions or just collect $ from youtube.  Everyone should invest at their own risk.  But there isn't a lot of push back that I can see. 

I'm all for free speech.

I'm not for screwing over the old and infirm due to misdirection and greed.

 

 

Edited by RichRock

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