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20 minutes ago, KDave said:

Agreed the pension will either be means tested or will just be gradually reduced to meaningless levels via one mechanism or another. Someone up top has already identified the upcoming issue of not being able to afford to pay pensions and so far we have had the age you can retire increased, compulsory work based pensions, now the lifetime ISA with 'free' money from the government to top it up. When people come to retire with their lifetime ISA's, the state pension will be means tested based on your savings I will extremely surprised if this is not the case/was not the plan all along.

I think it is obvious the government will try to shift the unfunded liability from its books, onto the population directly based on means testing. Just as healthcare liability is being shifted from the government onto those with more than £100,000 in assets. Unfunded because while some people have the understanding that because they have 'paid in all my life' there is a pot of money waiting for them in retirement - its just not the case - any tax taken by the government today, has already been spent many times over.

Interesting times! :-(

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I have bought a PUT on the GBPvsUSD.  The strike price is 1.25 expiring on June 21st.  That means in simple terms I have bought the right to sell the pound at a fixed price of 1.25 on June the 21st.  If the price is above that on that date then my PUT simply expires and I lose my stake.  If below that I will be short from 1.25

I am very very seriously hoping that I lose my stake!!!  However, if the trifecta of communist morons (Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbot) actually manage to seize the reigns of power outright or even through a hung parliament then the pound will almost certainly be destroyed.  Less than parity is a serious chance days after.  It is therefore a little bit of prudent insurance against such an outcome.  Like all insurance I hope it won't be exercised.

If the triple moron brigade get into office then our international standing will almost certainly fall off a cliff.  I would expect the value of property to be smashed which is quite contrary to many peoples belief that a more pro EU stance would raise again investment and property prices as we all sing kumbaya together.  It would be a double whammy of the pound collapsing along with foreign investment in UK projects and property also collapsing.  Who wants to buy into a falling knife which is what the most openly communist labour government in decades would bring?  Sure, a number of retail folks do that sort of thing but not anyone sensible with big pockets.  The fact is that the EU is in a lot of trouble structurally and now that we have embarked on this journey of leaving it is showing just how much they never liked us anyway.  They never liked our insistence on retaining our currency and our sovereignty and we had only a convenient relationship at best whilst we were pouring money and defence into their project.  It was never a genuinely symbiotic relationship.  There is open hostility to us as people now and it would therefore be madness to return cap in hand and beg forgiveness on weakened terms.

I am personally now also very disappointed with the Tories.  All the crap about policing speech on the internet is moving us towards a police state.  Their vision of the internet is very hard to vote for.  A free and open internet and the ability of people to speak freely on it has been one of the most important advances in my lifetime.  It protects us from tyranny by allowing the whole world to see what's going on rather than just what a bought and paid for media feed us.  Sure there are problems and there are downright lies espoused every day but the same has always been the case.  Remember the old adage of not believing everything you read in a book?  The same applies to the internet and most people are perfectly able to make up their own minds quite satisfactorily and weed out the obvious untruth.  The fact that so much truth is available on the world wide library automatically limits the liars in their scope.  Limiting this freedom as the Tories plainly wish to do is a very retrograde step indeed.  It is certainly not the correct way to fight terrorism and should be resisted at all costs.

Who then to vote for?  I don't even have a ukip candidate where I am so it seems like I have the classic Hobson's choice.  Take it or leave it.  I'm guessing I'll end up being forced to take it as the alternative is too hideous.  I will however be writing to my Tory MP and advising him that I would like him to vote against the nonsense on the internet stuff.

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££ is wrecked if socialists get in. Corbyn seems a decent guy, McDonnell is the worry. Tax and spend on a level nobody really appreciates yet. Wait and see what happens to your council tax when it's changed to a land tax like McDonnell wants....

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Did anyone see last nights Question Time? It was an eye opener regarding labour position on leaving the EU, or rather the opposite. The labour representative position was clearly in favour of staying in the single market, quite animated about it he was too. I believe the only way that happens is if freedom of movement is maintained, the EU will demand nothing less, and in return we will get third tier treatment for the continuation of the economic slow grind, and will have to pay more than we do now for the privilege. 

If labour do win I wonder how long they will maintain this policy, when it becomes clear that it is impossible to leave the EU and stay in the single market? I guess as a coalition between the SNP and labour is the likely only way they will achieve power, then effectively staying in the EU will be an absolute certainty, a reversal of Brexit, given the SNP position.

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Agreed.  Anything other than a Tory win means no Brexit.  It also means returning to the unelected EU leaders and sucking it up like a beggar.  It would be utter madness but that never stopped an ideologue from doing the obviously stupid.  I also heard a Labour rep slipping out "if we have another referendum" in a related issue that wasn't picked up on.  We don't need to be asked again, we need to do what the people voted for and do it sooner rather than later.

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Well, just wrote to my tory MP.  Explained I will be voting for him but not happy about the inclusion of the internet nonsense in the manifesto.  Also told him that I want them to push ahead with Brexit and immigration reform and not let the detractors bog them down.  He was a remainer but his web page says that he recognises that the people were asked and gave their verdict so he's now all for getting on with it.  Fair enough.

Not sure how many people bother to write to their MP.  I never have but figured it was worth pointing out how crappy the internet stuff was and just how many people online disagree with it.  It might stick in his mind if they ever get around to that nonsense (assuming they win of course!!!).  Anyway, it means I can vote for them with a clearer conscience now.

Edited by silversky

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As a resident of North Yorkshire I was planning on a trip to York tomorrow, but may now give it a miss following this evening's Question Time, for fear of being vaporised in a nuclear holocaust.

Bloodthirsty bunch in that audience.

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18 minutes ago, Shinus73 said:

As a resident of North Yorkshire I was planning on a trip to York tomorrow, but may now give it a miss following this evening's Question Time, for fear of being vaporised in a nuclear holocaust.

Bloodthirsty bunch in that audience.

That about sums up the intellectual level of this debate so far.

It was a perfectly logical and reasonable question.  The logical presumption in having nuclear weapons is that, should a dire situation arise, you will use them.

Corbyn has neither principles nor a backbone... he'll spend £80bn renewing Trident but wouldn't ever use it.  So he'd piss £80bn (or whatever the number is) up the wall.  Spineless.

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Apologies for my lack of intellect.

I find the endless discussion of whether or not somebody is willing to use a nuclear weapon in a first or second strike to be the most futile thing imaginable. Use it first and you'll be vaporised within 5 minutes. Use it second and you'll be vapourised within 4 minutes. I'll spend my time worrying about other things.

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M.A.D. has always been a crazy concept but it's the only thing that guarantees these weapons will never be used.

You have to say you will retaliate and use them or it's pointless having them. Corbyn clearly doesn't have the sense to see this. Even if you wouldn't actually pull the trigger, you have to convince your enemies that you would. I'm sure it would be very comforting for him as he is vapourised to know he was a "good" person.
 

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Despite how Corbyn feels on the matter, in a very real nuclear scale scenario wouldn't even the most optimistic pacifist be inundated with incredibly firm advice from the MOD and intelligence agencies, as well as his own cabinet, the opposition, and the people they all represent?

If the DPRK announced they somehow have ICBM locked on the UK, no amount of wishy washy wishful thinking would let one man or woman be the sole keeper of the codes, and it shouldn't take a military coup to act or retaliate appropriately if consensus across the agencies and party lines is strong enough, surely?

In the American scenario, I believe it was General Thomas Handy who gave the actual order to drop the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, not the President. But the difference there is that Truman pre-approved a nuclear option in discussions with Churchill, etc. As I understand it, Labour essentially pre-approves as a Party, but Corbyn dislikes it.

Corbyn said back in September, "It's immoral to have, or use, Nuclear weapons. I've made that clear all of my life. I want to see a nuclear free world." When questioned specifically if he actually would use them, he refused to give a clear answer. He more recently said he respects the decision that has been made, in spite of his vote against it. His defence secretary said his morality comments were "unhelpful."

As it stands, despite Corbyn's personal opinions, his Labour Party manifesto today commits to keeping Trident and all it entails. There might be a review of that stance later, but he isn't a dictator in any such review. If he ever had to push the launch button, I think he'll just make peace with his beliefs and push it for the country's sake.

Edited by Jay2
typo

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The most dangerous time in the world was not MAD, but the time before, when each side had enough weapons to wipe each others launch capability out, and so could attack without fear of retaliation. It was only when each side had enough weapons to kill each other 2, 3, 4 times over that after an initial strike there would be enough weapons left to retaliate, that the world became a safer place. The temptation to strike first during the early period must have been enormous. 

Trident replicates MAD - if the UK is attacked, we have x number of safe and cosy submarines posted in unknown places around the world to reap nuclear annihilation on whoever attacked us.

The only way this is an effective deterrent is if people believe we are capable of firing nuclear weapons in retaliation. Otherwise they are pointless.

But there are bigger issues at stake than who is the best leader to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike after we are all dead imo. I can't shake the feeling that Corbyn is going to win this election, perhaps with SNP and LD support - goodbye Brexit. I can see this happening as the polls are suggesting this is closer than May thought it was going to be. 

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3 minutes ago, KDave said:

this is closer than May thought it was going to be. 

Essentially, May has completed f***ed up the election campaign.

I'm sure he conspiracy theorists will be saying she will have lost this deliberately in order to get us out of Brexit, which she never really believed in. Also that she wants to resign as PM and con leader because she's crap at it, she doesn't like it  and it doesn't really suit her in the first place.

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In pivotal times like these, I think the sane thing to do is to bet big money against the person you want to win.  :D

If they lose, you cash in. If they win, your worldview is gratified but your pocket is lighter, heh.

Edited by Jay2
win win

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7 hours ago, Clens92 said:

Just as an aside, what are people's predictions for the result?  I'm confident the polling is completely wrong, and expect a Tory majority of over 60 seats come Friday June 9th.

I hope you're right!

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I think a Con majority of 70.

Labour have had a better campaign than they could ever have expected which will prevent a landslide, but when push comes to shove we all know that Middle England doesn't really do socialism, and the electorate won't have forgotten how the parliamentary Labour party has been riddled with infighting and trying to usurp its leader for the last 18 months. 

I also think that, in today's social-media driven world where virtue signalling is the thing to do, it only drives "shy Tories" underground even more, and that, despite whatever adjustments they have made to their models since 2015, they are very likely to understate Con support ever more. The Left haven't engaged any serious debate, they just shout louder, so the Con supporters just go into their bunker, don't even bother to talk to pollsters, and instead do their talking in the voting booth. 

Also, recent terror attacks have focussed the mind... can you really imagine Diane Abbott dealing with a national terror alert?

Edited by vand

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AS you all know I am voting Labour for the first time since 1997, I cannot vote for the Conservatives with that Manifesto!

The Tories Manifesto is extremely similar and reminds me of a dodgy market trader who shouts out ' who will trust me whats in the box, come on only 50 quid for whats in the box' the first box then gets sold to his mate and guess what he gets lots of items worth £100's.  Then the next box  'Trust me whats in the box i have lots give give out, come then the (sheep) customers come forward and get conned out of their money!  

That is the Conservative  Manifesto in a nutshell.  

Anyone who votes for the Conservatives with that manifesto is giving the Conservatives the right to do what ever they want.  Under that manifesto the Conservatives are the real danger to this Country.  

I am not telling people to vote Labour but if you go into the booth you must be aware if you put your X next to the Tory candidate what you are doing.   

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