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2017 Australia 1 oz Silver Swan


morezone

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Am I incorrect in assuming it's safe just to wait a bit on this one?  I too saw them up on Apmex and foolishly passed.  However, the run on this one is 25,000, correct?  Relatively speaking, 25,000 isn't a low mintage.  The Rwandan Lunar Rooster, another first and hugely popular coin, with a mintage of 1,000 could be had on a few of the largest US online dealers not too long ago.  EMK seems to have the 2017 Australian Stock Horse in steady supply with a mintage of 10,000.  I'm sure there are a lot of variables by offering, I'm just trying to draw reasonable parallels.

Could this be another Anniversary Silver Krug type thing where they trickled some out for pre-sale and then it may be some time before the bulk of the coins are released?  I could be completely wrong on this one, I just find it hard to believe 22,500 coins (10% has to stay in AU, right?) have been spoken for or just a few dealers have a few coins remaining.  Am I outta my tree here or should we expect to see more at other popular dealers soon?

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1 hour ago, Jester said:

 EMK seems to have the 2017 Australian Stock Horse in steady supply with a mintage of 10,000.  I'm sure there are a lot of variables by offering, I'm just trying to draw reasonable parallels.

For some reason I haven't been able to fathom, the stock horse hasn't been as popular as you would have thought, even though it's an attractive coin and comes with coa.

Profile picture with thanks to Carl Vernon

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Maybe the price hike and shortage has been entirely due to speculators and re-sellers, as it's a new type of coin with limited mintage. If it turns out to be the start of a series, the first one will probably be in great ongoing demand?

Profile picture with thanks to Carl Vernon

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Dagnabbit...now I feel like I need to pick one of these up :huh:

I found a seller on eBay who has a few for $47 with free shipping.  That may be close to the best deal I can get right now...

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2 hours ago, Jester said:

Dagnabbit...now I feel like I need to pick one of these up :huh:

I found a seller on eBay who has a few for $47 with free shipping.  That may be close to the best deal I can get right now...

MIGHT be cheaper down the road, but might not be! lol

collectors are a strange breed indeed.  

25K DOES seem to be a little low of a mintage for most collectors, but then again, maybe its just right.   

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3 hours ago, Jester said:

 

Could this be another Anniversary Silver Krug type thing where they trickled some out for pre-sale and then it may be some time before the bulk of the coins are released?  I could be completely wrong on this one, I just find it hard to believe 22,500 coins (10% has to stay in AU, right?) have been spoken for or just a few dealers have a few coins remaining.  Am I outta my tree here or should we expect to see more at other popular dealers soon?

Can guarantee you there is no trickling out. I watched Apmex closely the first day of release, they put them up in various sized batches throughout the day. Say, 3500 would go up for sale, i watched that number decrease at a super fast rate every 15-20 minutes (i watched apmex because it's one of the rare places you can see real-time numbers of sales) . When that was depleted another batch of 2,000 or so, and so on at a steady pace for the first days.

These were snapped up in large numbers by collectors worldwide in the first 2 days after release. There are also many buyers who like to buy a roll of Perth bullion products. More again who buy more than one roll. It only takes a few hundred collectors w/wide buying a roll, or two or three and all of a sudden averaged out there is half the mintage spoken for, alone. Then factor in the numbers buying between 1 and 5 coins. They don't last long when there's a buzz in the air.

 

3 hours ago, Jester said:

EMK seems to have the 2017 Australian Stock Horse in steady supply with a mintage of 10,000.  I'm sure there are a lot of variables by offering, I'm just trying to draw reasonable parallels.

 

The stock horse is a not quite a comparison to the swan. The stock horse with it's small 9,000 mintage may seem like it should be flying off the shelves, but there are subtle reasons why it doesn't. EMK have a much tighter rein on their stock horse. It has a set price from day one, controlled by EMK on distribution as well. This set price is almost 100% premium over spot price. The large market of the USA is initially out of the loop upon launch (a lot of US buyers prefer to buy from a US dealer), this kills any potential "buzz". They do eventually let other dealers like apmex have them, but the price is offputting for all except the buyer who wants one for his personal collection. This makes them less of a bullion choice. Collectors just aren't going to buy them in rolls, they'll buy singly if they have an interest in the series. The swan could initially be had for $24/$25, it only ramps up steadily with huge demand and once it achieves that tag - off she goes, available the same day of launch on the markets of 3 continents, a modest mark up over spot to begin, attractive to the collector/stacker/investor, and so the frenzy takes hold. "Buzz", perception and reputation play a massive part in the success of a coin, and the swan series should have a bright future ahead if they don't mess around with that formula next year. The stock horse has its fans of course, me included, and is a moderate success but when a new one launches you can take all the time in the world you want before buying it, wait 6 months if you like, no problem getting it at the same price. Its launch is quietly done, often its been out a couple of weeks before i realise. How will the numbers compare next year between people excited about buying the next swan and the next stock horse? hugely.

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I truly hate speculation...

Picked up the last two the seller had so I guess I'm in the game (to a minor degree).  We'll see if that was $94 well spent or not.  Since these are apparently the hottest thing since sliced bread, I'll send them both along to @Numistacker for his May submission to NGC.  I know it's modern bullion but if there's this much fuss over them...

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when you say APMEX will release more, will they do so at what they were selling for when they sold out ($30 and change), or at current market prices?

it is a slippery slope if they are holding back stock for the intention of selling later after they know the price will increase.  i get it, but man that is uncool.

i bought four swans at $27 ( to qualify for the free S&H.  i despise shipping fees! lol) so of course i'd like to see them go up as much as possible (who wouldnt?)

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I completely misjudged this one.  When Apmex first put them on sale I worked out the cost for 100 and almost pulled the trigger but thought I'd wait for EU dealers to get them in.  With 20% VAT, customs clearance fee and international payment charges there would have been plenty of room to work with. As long as I bought within the first week or so then it would work out cheaper or at least the same price at worst.  So I thought anyway!  The price slowly crept up and by the time they were listed for sale in the EU it was no longer any cheaper than Apmex's current price.  Obvious choice was to buy from the EU so thought long and hard as to whether to still go ahead.  No rush I thought.  Only 2 dealers were listing them at that time.  Wrong again!  EU price jumped before the end of the day.  I did still managed to get some but at a higher price and less quantity.  Quite a few EU dealers now have it listed but the price is now ridiculous.

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22 minutes ago, ThoseBackPages said:

 

it is a slippery slope if they are holding back stock for the intention of selling later after they know the price will increase.  i get it, but man that is uncool.

 

Yes, dealer tactics often annoy.

But it has to be said, in fairness, Apmex weren't holding back and kept demand fed for the first few days frenzy. They would have sold the vast majority of their own allocation during that time, and all at sub $30, even when it was clear prices were going up quickly elsewhere. I wouldn't begrudge them holding a small percentage of them back. They played fair, i think.

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18 minutes ago, swAgger said:

Yes, dealer tactics often annoy.

But it has to be said, in fairness, Apmex weren't holding back and kept demand fed for the first few days frenzy. They would have sold the vast majority of their own allocation during that time, and all at sub $30, even when it was clear prices were going up quickly elsewhere. I wouldn't begrudge them holding a small percentage of them back. They played fair, i think.

fair enough :)

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I wonder if this a repeat of the buying frenzy when the 2012 Lunar Dragon was released.
Prices went through the roof and then a normal priced version with a privy was issued with a lower mintage that upset a lot of collectors.
Now you can buy the high priced Dragon at down to earth prices so I guess a lot of stackers have lost out on their dreams.
The swan at GS.be is now €42,39 limited to 2 coins so I will be giving this one a miss for now.

 

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13 minutes ago, Pete said:

I wonder if this a repeat of the buying frenzy when the 2012 Lunar Dragon was released.
Prices went through the roof and then a normal priced version with a privy was issued with a lower mintage that upset a lot of collectors.
Now you can buy the high priced Dragon at down to earth prices so I guess a lot of stackers have lost out on their dreams.
The swan at GS.be is now €42,39 limited to 2 coins so I will be giving this one a miss for now.

 

The big difference with the swan is a 25,000 mintage opposed to the 300,000 of the lunar dragon , plus the fact most people that bought the swan have at least 5 that cuts down the people holding these coins drastically the other plus is it maybe the first in a series .

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I might even go for one these as my treat coin on my next order with GS.

My avg per oz has been getting destroyed from brexit so why not? Panda's are the most expensive over spot coin i stack, this will be the first of another level for me. I think this might work out nicely as a new personal date run. 

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Admittedly, the price is beyond ridiculous.  For a MS70 "First Strike" (we all love that gimmick, right?) they're $150 USD using Check/Wire or $156 USD for CC/PayPal.  Certainly not hyping this up, just informing in case anyone is interested perhaps didn't pick them up raw and want a MS70 for their collection.  Happy swan hunting!

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