How high is low mintage?

[KevjustKev]

I've just taken the plunge and ordered a £5 King Canute silver proof, a total mintage of 6,000 of which half will be in sets and the other half available by themselves.

Now that got me thinking (yes people tell me not to) how high is low mintage? 3,000 seems quite low to me, am I right?

[ChrisSilver]

It's not just about mintage it's about demand. A coin could have 100 mintage but such little demand that it's not popular at all.

 

If on the other hand a coin had a 10,000 mintage, but there are 30,000 eager people waiting to snap it up then the market prices of that will increase to a point where the market equalises.

 

Also the question is subjective, to one person one mintage might be high and to another it might be low.

 

[Pete]

Demand outstrips mintage in establishing future price / value but what governs demand ?
Sometimes slick promotion and advertising, celebrity endorsements, fake news, bullshit on forums and sales hype by so-called 'experts' ...... ????
Higher priced / high demand coins ( must get one of those ! ) can also loose their appeal over time so the initial high premiums paid melt away into insignificance as no-one years to come is interested.

I have seen coins with very low mintages and coin sets with issues of only a few hundred but their value is only what some is prepared to pay, often not much more than any other that is similar with higher mintages & issues. Anything special over 2,000 I think is not really low mintage but better than 100,000.  As ChrisSilver posted - demand is key not quantity minted.

[Guest]

I am eternally frustrated by the way "low mintage" is used for things that are not low mintage.

In absolute terms anything over 2,000 of something is likely to be routinely available for a considerable time. It may be that this type of issue can yield over the longer-term, but any hope of a quick flip unless they demand is extraordinary is futile.

For low mintage to mean something there also has to be a high demand from end buyers other than those who buy everything they can see in the hope of turning a quick profit. But there also has to be further buyers who want to purchase when that coin is no longer current in order to complete sets or runs.

This is the principal reason that I avoid commemoratives that are not part of a widely loved series. Too often, they are forgotten and available for 50% of initial retail in the secondary market.

Low mintage also needs to be relative to other similar issues for example, a coin that is usually minted at 2000 but in one year is minted at 500, gets the double whammy of initial shortage of coins and the difficulty of filling in sets later.

Libertads are a good example as they are part of the series and have wildly different Mintages in different years. A 2014 gold proof with 250 minted is worth 3 x a 2016 with 2100 minted and really over time in might become worth 10 x

[Oldun]

5 hours ago, ChrisSilver said:

It's not just about mintage it's about demand. A coin could have 100 mintage but such little demand that it's not popular at all.

 

If on the other hand a coin had a 10,000 mintage, but there are 30,000 eager people waiting to snap it up then the market prices of that will increase to a point where the market equalises.

 

Also the question is subjective, to one person one mintage might be high and to another it might be low.

 

This

[NewMSmatist15]

@numistacker has a great point about the "one-off" commemorative coins. I'm a US based collector and am constantly frustrated with the US Mint's silver commemoratives. The subject matter is disjointed, they produce 5 or 6 commemorative coins in a given year, and the mintage figures vary. I'd echo the sentiment and ask - Do people collect 5 pound silver proof coins? If so, how many have been produced in past years?

I quite like the look of the King Canute and the design so to me it is appealing, but are you buying it because you like it or because you want to sell it later for a profit? Your question on low mintage seems to be the latter and it doesn't seem like the kind of coin for this. 

[MaxShiraz]

Yep, supply an demand - as others have pointed out. Having said that, there's a fair amount of guesswork. For example, I'm punting on the Wedge Tailed Eagle proofs at 5,000 mintage - an enormously popular series at home and in America. Also as Numi has pointed out, some of the Libertads are ridiculously low for such a beautiful and popular coin and IMO has enormous potential. (BTW, is there a better looking coin than the Libertad - that's another thread altogether)

Pre-2002 Ag Pandas are 250,000 (or less) , which is huge by comparison, but with such a large collector base are already expensive and won't get any easier to find in good grades. So - yeah supply and demand - good luck working that out!

 

[KevjustKev]

11 hours ago, NewMSmatist15 said:

@numistacker has a great point about the "one-off" commemorative coins. I'm a US based collector and am constantly frustrated with the US Mint's silver commemoratives. The subject matter is disjointed, they produce 5 or 6 commemorative coins in a given year, and the mintage figures vary. I'd echo the sentiment and ask - Do people collect 5 pound silver proof coins? If so, how many have been produced in past years?

I quite like the look of the King Canute and the design so to me it is appealing, but are you buying it because you like it or because you want to sell it later for a profit? Your question on low mintage seems to be the latter and it doesn't seem like the kind of coin for this. 

 The Canute coin is nice in it's self, but will be selling it if, more likely when, the price is right. However it arrived yesterday and lets just say it has issues. I will be posting a video on my Youtube channel (tallthinkev) later today. I you're feeling brave you may like to check it out.