Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?

[vand]

The Fed has got your back.. until the USD gets crushed, at which point you're on your own mate.

 

DOW 2% gap down on opening. The Bear is sharpening her claws. #BTFD is dead.

[Guest]

On 30/03/2018 at 06:42, Pipers said:

I've had a good look at FM, yes the stock price does look good but i was put off by the deal they have with wheaton on one there mines.  Wheaton ring them miners dry if i was a miner i would never do a deal with them at those rates, better walking away. 

Fair enough, you are right about Wheaton, worth a punt though IMHO.

On 02/04/2018 at 19:15, vand said:

Another BIG selloff today in the US. The rallies are getting sold off like clockwork now. This is very different behaviour to what we have been seeing since 2009.

 

Excellent point and not pointed out by many.

On 27/03/2018 at 02:43, Lowlow said:

Totally agree, and it's been a long time coming.  Most of the permabulls don't even realize that what they've actually done is mortgage their future to pay for their stock portfolio .. but they'll realize that when the bear rips their faces off and all they're left with is a mortgage, car payments, etc.  They would have never financed all of it had it not been for all the "money" they had "safely" tucked away in their stock portfolio.

It's all fun and games until you're left trying to reassure your wife that you aren't going to lose the house ...

Amen. Many don't even realise. They will though, probably soon.

 

 

Bear enjoyed his light soup and 600 point drop in the DOW before rebound. Compliments to the chef.

Bear will have a little light chat with his dinner guests over a glass of red whilst the chef prepares the excellent starter dish (bull cheese and tomatoe with a FTSE and DOW drizzle). Whilst waiting for his starter, he is amused the main course bulls thought they were free and pondered over a cigar as the bulls ran back a few hundred points towards the field to 24250 area. Bear knows adrenaline spoils the bull meat; so best to let them rest a little, and besides, bears friends are waiting in the field.

 

[vand]

Yep, The PPT really earned their bread this week

 

[sixgun]

The charts are painting a different picture now. Previously price was very steady and steadily rising. The VIX (volatility index) was very low. There was no fear in the market.

Now i can see stocks are getting sold off. They get bought up again but we are not regaining the highs. i expect the bigger players who are still onboard are jumping ship. Price has gone through the 200 day moving average. i saw a piece where it was saying Mom and Pop has gone back into the stock market. This is when price tumbles. i suspect certain parties [Trump et al] want to crash the market. Perhaps they think like me. The only way to sort this out is to destroy the system and rebuild from the bottom, minus the parasites.

[Oystonousted]

A link from RT explaining that the global debt crisis is coming to a head soon. More and more countries are repatriating their gold reserves. 

https://www.rt.com/business/423503-economy-going-down-grass/

[vand]

The US markets seem to be losing the fight to revive the uptrend.

The DOW seems to be making lower highs and want to go lower, although 23500 is acting as major support. If that gets taken out then look out below:

 

 

The Nasdaq's higher high may have convinced a lot of people that it was business as usual, but that now looks more like it is forming a H&S major top. 6800 is the level to watch.

 

[StackerNoob]

13 minutes ago, vand said:

The US markets seem to be losing the fight to revive the uptrend.

The DOW seems to be making lower highs and want to go lower, although 23500 is acting as major support. If that gets taken out then look out below:

 

 

The Nasdaq's higher high may have convinced a lot of people that it was business as usual, but that now looks more like it is forming a H&S major top. 6800 is the level to watch.

 

There a pretty clear equilibrium set up forming on the DJ there, and the point should be formed with the next couple of weeks. Lets see which way this thing goes. It should be way down, but you just never know what tricks will be pulled here.

[Guest]

Watching Deutsche Bank AG carefully, currently 10.55.  If this mother of all derivatives pops...where's the popcorn smilie?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DBK:GR

[dicker]

Hi All

Firstly I have to admit to being an investment banker, nearly retired and previously what some of you would know as a merchant banker.  

Everyone has a very valid opion, and I much enjoy reading this thread because of the breadth of opinion which makes me think and consider.  

I am a metals man, because it fits into my portfolio and I increase and decrease when I think it prudent to do so.  Markets rise and fall, but at the end of the day, I sincerely believe balance is incredibly important, and by that I mean balancing metals, equity debt instruments property  

I do not see the sort of liquidity crisis recurring but corrections and crashes are a definite. 

I hold equities in companies I value - In the long term this is a proven strategy for growth, and irrespective of corrections and crashes it just works.  

As per any investment pound/dollar cost is a good way to buy assets and manage out price risk  

All the best 

Dicker

 

 

Hi All

Firstly I have to admit to being an investment banker, nearly retired and previously what some of you would know as a merchant banker.  

Everyone has a very valid opion, and I much enjoy reading this thread because of the breadth of opinion which makes me think and consider.  

I am a metals man, because it fits into my portfolio and I increase and decrease when I think it prudent to do so.  Markets rise and fall, but at the end of the day, I sincerely believe balance is incredibly important, and by that I mean balancing metals, equity debt instruments property  

I do not see the sort of liquidity crisis recurring but corrections and crashes are a definite. 

I hold equities in companies I value - In the long term this is a proven strategy for growth, and irrespective of corrections and crashes it just works.  

As per any investment pound/dollar cost is a good way to buy assets and manage out price risk  

All the best 

Dicker

 

 

[vand]

"Balance is incredibly important". Agreed. Putting 100% of your wealth or even leveraging >100% is not wise. 

But by the same token, people use these standard tropes as a first-line defense for their own ignorance. They'll justify buying at stupid prices touting "long term" and "diversification".  So there is a a fine line that needs to be walked between ignorance and knowing how much risk is acceptable. 

Life is considerably more complex than the straight yes/no right/wrong polarisations that the media want to categorize everything. If you understand and apply that then you already have a considerable edge.

[Bumble]

@Dicker. Thanks for your post. I'd be interested to know what investment professionals think about precious metals as an investment vehicle. My limited experience is that they won't touch physical PMs because they have no yield and won't touch the PM miners because they are too volatile. What do you think it would take for investors to make a significant rotation into PMs? Even an average 5% or so in portfolios would create a large demand and make a big difference to PM prices.

[Guest]

On 24/05/2018 at 13:10, RichRock said:

Watching Deutsche Bank AG carefully, currently 10.55.  If this mother of all derivatives pops...where's the popcorn smilie?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DBK:GR

 

Tick Tock...

 

[Oldun]

This is a repricing not a topping pattern some reckon. Everyone thinks one way so chances are it wont be a topping pattern. That is all.

[Lowlow]

31 minutes ago, Oldun said:

This is a repricing not a topping pattern some reckon. Everyone thinks one way so chances are it wont be a topping pattern. That is all.

Everyone thinks its a topping pattern ?

I see market news, and I don't hear anybody saying it's a topping pattern.  I hear a lot of people saying unemployment is down, productivity is up, .. and there's nowhere to go but to the moon ..

Edit, except when they have Jim Rogers on of course.

Edit #2, or Peter Schiff lol ..

[Oldun]

You must be reading different analysis then. That’s all.

[vand]

As always, the US indices are giving a much better impression of global stock performance than what is really going on. Many stock markets around the work are entering bear market territory.

Look at charts of the Shanghai Composite, Dax, Italian etc.

Even looking at our own FTSE, you would to say its looking incredibly tired and on the brink of rolling over after a long 18 month topping process.

 

Actually, I do like the look of the Shanghai Comp from a contrarian point of view. It has been through a rough time ever since the financial crisis, and is fundamentally undervalued as it has been through a further bear market this year on Trade war tensions.

[Oldun]

The Chinese will have to devalue the yuan as there is no way they can win a trade war with the US. The US buys far far more of their stuff than the Chinese buy of the US’

[sixgun]

40 minutes ago, Oldun said:

The Chinese will have to devalue the yuan as there is no way they can win a trade war with the US. The US buys far far more of their stuff than the Chinese buy of the US’

The Chinese have been devaluing their currency for months. The impact on the Chinese economy is very small - China looks elsewhere. It trades outside the USD. Russia is stronger for the sanctions. This is simply accelerating the end of the USD and the collapse of the Anglo-American empire. At least the UK has a bit more sense and is getting involved in the Belt and Road.

[Lowlow]

I went for a walk last night along a country road and met with my financial advisors, and they said it probably wasn't the best time to buy stocks.

[vand]

What to expect going forward, based on current valuations:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3987114-predicting-stock-market-returns-using-shiller-cape-pb

this article was written mid-2016. Since then CAPE has climbed to 33.

[vand]

European stocks are danger of breaking down:

A further 1% downside would break significant support and could lead to waterfall declines:

[vand]

30 minutes ago, vand said:

What to expect going forward, based on current valuations:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3987114-predicting-stock-market-returns-using-shiller-cape-pb

this article was written mid-2016. Since then CAPE has climbed to 33.

Note this on Page 6:

" further comparison: In the period between 1871 and 2016, earnings growth in the S&P 500 and the returns of the following 15 years showed a much lower correlation (R² 0.16 - correlation 0.40, Figure 7). This shows that CAPE and PB enable significantly more reliable long-term forecasts than correctly estimated long-term earnings growth rates for the subsequent 15 years."

Lightbulb moment: this is why value investing, ie, buying stocks that are cheap vs earnings or book value, is superior to growth investing. Tomorrow's growth is not assured.. successful companies face relentless competition that see their profitability eroded and means revert over time. Food for thought for anyone buying AMZN today at 155 p/e.

 

[Abyss]

Dow down 620 points 2.33% today

VIX 20.27

Silver/Gold $14.34 / 1196.7

US now finally catching up to the bear markets around the market.

 

 

 

 

[Lowlow]

9 hours ago, Abyss said:

Dow down 620 points 2.33% today

VIX 20.27

Silver/Gold $14.34 / 1196.7

US now finally catching up to the bear markets around the market.

No matter what happens, no tears, they've literally had decades to prepare.

[vand]

The market recovery after the Q1 dip this year was very narrow - led by tech & the FAANGS. Now if these are breaking down there could be nowhere left to run.

We all know how long in the tooth the bull market is, and how it has defied the odds. It would be silly to think that it can't do it again, but the odds much surely be much higher this time that we really have seen a major top.