Race to $18?!

[mongo28]

The next 4 years look great for Silver and gold! With predictions of a recession coming in late 2018- early 2020, we should see spot of $20+ in the near future.

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[craig12]

don't forget to tune into you tube in 2021 when the so called gurus  will say  I think it,ll be 2025 we get the recession    $20 silver the excitement I cant withstand anymore  by the time I retire it,ll be $24

ive asked it at least 3 times now without a reply as far as I can remember   

if the silver price is manipulated by paper trading , and paper trading isn't going to end then how can silver ever rise 

[Danny-boy]

ive asked it at least 3 times now without a reply as far as I can remember   

Did silver rise to just under £30 in 2010/2011?

Was silver £9 recently?

I think that proves it can rise and drop, don't you?

[Kman]

6 minutes ago, Danny-boy said:

 

Did silver rise to just under £30 in 2010/2011?

Was silver £9 recently?

I think that proves it can rise and drop, don't you?

 

Don't try and confuse the argument with common sense!  

[craig12]

£30  in 2011  wow steady on , now around £14.20  wow  that's some sideways move for 6-7 years

[Danny-boy]

£30  in 2011  wow steady on , now around £14.20  wow  that's some sideways move for 6-7 years

Lol. You won't listen to reason will you.

You asked "how can silver ever rise". I give you a recent example where it went to more than double the current spot price.

And you come back with a sarcastic response.

Well done Craig, I had hoped you had grown up but it seems not.

[craig12]

isn't it funny how no one replied to mongo 28 s thread  for an hour until I posted a reply  almost co incidental

[Danny-boy]

isn't it funny how no one replied to mongo 28 s thread  for an hour until I posted a reply  almost co incidental

You said something completely different to mongo28.

Had he asked the same question, then you'd have a good point.

But he didn't, so you haven't got a point.

Again!!!

Have to say though, I'll give you the credit for not posting a new thread, think that's a first.

[RisinSun]

Shots

[vand]

No one has a crystal ball..

While we all think POS should rise given long term fundamentals, I can guarantee that the path with be arduous and it will not play out how any of us envisage. There are a lot of people with a vested interest in keeping the current system afloat, which means keeping gold & silver supressed, so just keep your head down and keep accumulating. Every purchase of metals is a hedge against debt and fiat default. 

[onlyroadtoheaven]

3 hours ago, mongo28 said:

 

The next 4 years look great for Silver and gold! With predictions of a recession coming in late 2018- early 2020, we should see spot of $20+ in the near future.

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It certainly seems to have gained a bit of momentum since Christmas. Just as paper PMs is/has been used to supress the price, when the guys in charge want it to rise, it will. They seem to want a weaker $ now so things could start to get interesting.

[silversky]

The guys holding the largest physical pile in history (at least publically) are doing the short selling.  When they've finally filled their tank they'll gently start closing out their shorts and a much more realistic market will form.  I'm very thankful to them for this opportunity.  Just be aware that when the POS does eventually rise properly, there will be the largest stack of physical, ever, in the hands of the very people that held the price down for so long.  Their operation will then go into reverse when the price is right for them.  That will likely be at the point that industry starts seriously looking for alternative materials.  That scenario is a long way off in my opinion.  Hence, best to buy only what you're happy to hold for a long time and stick it in a nice safe place and forget about it.

Interestingly, right now, spot paper gold is more expensive in the west than the east ($10).  That's an unusual situation that has developed over the last week or so and it's normally the other way round to the tune of around $20.  Back in December at the low in the paper price, the premium in China reached more than $60.  Whilst I'm not sure about this, it's said that the SGE's spot price more closely matches the price for actual physical delivery because it's contracts are deliverable T2's.  BWDIK.  That would imply that today, paper interest in the west has exceeded what you can actually buy physical metal for in China.  Strange but entirely possible due to the paper market being so detached from the physical market.  The difference on silver is also pretty low at the moment.  There is currently only a premium of around USD 0.50 per ounce more expensive in China.  Normally the SGE has a premium on silver of around $1.50 to the west so it's an indicator that the paper market in the west is actually quite a bit higher priced than normal.  The low in December was marked by extreme paper cheapness in the west compared to the east and I now wonder if there is a chance that this current rally will stall soon due to the reversal that has occurred in the last 6 weeks.

[sixgun]

SGE premiums for gold were about $10 above the London spot price this morning.

[craig12]

my apologies to everyone what I meant was  how can silver rise significantly    as were all after  high rises  not megre ones

[Danny-boy]

my apologies to everyone what I meant was  how can silver rise significantly    as were all after  high rises  not megre ones

Fair enough, I apologise also.

What would you class as a significant rise? I'd probably buckle at around £25/oz.

[silversky]

8 hours ago, sixgun said:

SGE premiums for gold were about $10 above the London spot price this morning.

Yes they gapped higher over night.  It appears that the price for gold is tending to hover around being equal in both hemispheres now.  I guess that that indicates a neutral to slightly bullish situation in terms of paper speculation vs physical metal.  I see that the open interest (total long and short paper contracts) is almost at the low level it was last year with the overall number being slightly long and gently rising over the last few weeks.  Silver seems to be a little different with a recent low in open interest formed back in November and now rising.  Silver also has a rising net long paper position.  The two rising together last year propelled the price to last years highs so maybe a repeat on the cards this year.  The reuters website shows some nice graphs to compare open interest and net positions for the commodities exchange.  Worth a look.   http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/02/cftc.html

[sixgun]

There is the London spot price, the COMEX futures price and Shanghai Gold Exchange price. Then there are all the other prices people trade at, with large physical buys usually north of $1250.

i have never known the SGE to be lower than London. When price was low in December 2016, there was a $20 upwards premium in Shanghai. 

Gold is being arbitraged. The GLD ETF is getting drained and then the gold gets shipped to China. When the GLD gets emptied there will be little immediately deliverable gold in quantity at the quoted LBMA prices. The COMEX could be emptied in a heartbeat if even a small fraction of longs stood for delivery. Then there would be cash settlements with physical delivery being refused. Then there would be a reset in price.

 

[silversky]

I did see the premium briefly hit $60 for gold and $2!! for silver while the SGE was open back in December.  I took that to mean that the paper price in the west was heavily oversold and couldn't last.  I loaded up on paper that day!    Only holding a little paper now as I see it short term a bit more balanced and needing a good story to move things either way.

[craig12]

my apologies danny boy   I don't know , I'm lead by the gurus you tube stuff so I'm probably being fed  stuff I shouldn't believe  , but I have a silly calculation in my head   my mortgage is around £65000   id love to have  enough ounces to pay off my mortgage at whatever price it goes to , sadly I only own around 132 oz  which is nothing compared to most collector/stackers   but id luvvvvvv my stack to pay off my mortgage  why oh why the vat  ..........  oh and everyone    2 oz  turtles on e bay for £37.50 inc postage  I'm buying one not sure if that's a good price chap has a 99.7% feedback

[mongo28]

It's getting close! $18 before Friday?

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[vand]

More relevant to us is silver in GBP:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GBPUSD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p26945377606&r=1455795590914

 

This time last year Silver was just making an important breakout and moving above £10. Today it is still above £14, so 40%, and looking like it wants to go all the way back up. Yes we definitely got ahead of things in the summer and the pullback tested our patience, but that is a good thing as it paves the way for far bigger moves in the next phase of the bull market.

 

I feel pretty good that I've been buying this stuff for a year now, but I am not even close to getting excited yet, because this train ride is just rolling out of the station.

[mongo28]

Almost $18...

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[mongo28]

Ask $18.05!

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[mongo28]

Finally hit $18!

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[montesf1030]

Already at $ 18 !!!


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