Return of the Stacker?

[Pipers]

In the UK Gold and Silver stacking has not been viable since Brexit until today with silver now returning under the £13.00 level and Gold dipping down too.  With Gold now broken down through the 200 day trading level it is back into a bear market (long term) . Who thinkis its the right time to step back in?

  Now I am sure some will say I bought numi's well good for you.  I have witnessed people trying to sell both bullion and numi's at various locations and being disappointed at the price achieved when the Gold price falls. I have recently come into contact with an old friend who has been in the commodities sector since he was 21 and he has an interest in coins, he pointed out to me one very obvious point about Numismatic coins, esp collections. modern day, he said the following There are that many collections from all the different mints and the mints have increased their margins to start with, So if collector 'A' has a fine collection of 'rare' coins (he said rare with a smile on his face) 400-5000 coins are not rare he said when in 20 years nobody wants the collection and everyone is interested in a different collection because they are being churned and pumped by the mints and through social media the premium is reduced not increased compared to say a bullion sovereign or Krugerrand. He went on to say this does not diminish the enjoyment the collector obtains from his collection and one should consider whether the premium is worth the enjoyment.            

 

[mondy41]

I cant disagree with what you say however there must always be exceptions to Numi coins like say Perth Mint Lunar gold/silver 1 and 2 and pandas - I feel there will always be a collector/market for these willing to pay premiums.

I believe Numistacker mentioned recently having studied recent Ebay sales that buyers seem to be paying premiums for earlier edition coins and recent edition  coins realising poor returns.

I expect some of my buys not to pay off because I sometimes buy what I like not thinking about a return but someday when I sell this maybe offset with a jump in spot when I do sell.

 

 

[HawkHybrid]

rare does not mean valuable.

collectors need to differentiate the difference between

1, rare and valuable, and

2, rare.

 

HH

[Kman]

3 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

rare does not mean valuable.

collectors need to differentiate the difference between

1, rare and valuable, and

2, rare.

Yes, it's supply and demand

The demand really drives what a small supply is, just because a coin/medal has a low mintage doesn't mean much on its own 

I sold some bullion at around £1000oz, I've been contemplating buying back in with that money with some bullion sovs 

[Roy]

It's the sensible thing to do.

Only sell gold if you intend to buy more gold at a cheaper price 

[Murph]

I tend to stay away from modern stuff unless I particularly like the design then I might get one or I pick it up cheaply a few years after release when the price has come down.

I much prefer something with a bit of history.

[roykfahey]

Thanks for sharing

[vand]

Stacking has been entire

On 12/1/2016 at 15:14, Pipers said:

In the UK Gold and Silver stacking has not been viable since Brexit  

 

 

Really? Stacking has been entirely viable all year. If you had been a true stacker then the power of cost-averaging will have kicked in and the midyear bump in prices would maybe have increased your avg stack cost by a few 2-3% at the most.

[Pipers]

No I bought early in the year Jan  then before brexit, I was supposed to buy in July August but put that off,  then i bought 2 times in November around the 15th and the other day, its my way of stacking!  I am not a trader I buy and hold for many years.  IMO this year has been a bad year for stacking if you live in the UK, because of the BOE and the idiot Carney who has been giving free lunches dinners and suppers to his mates in the city, I am glad May and Hammond have shut him up a bit his behaviour does not fit a position of the Governor, he is supposed to have the countries interests in mind not his own and mates (people may have differing views on the economy and how to run it but Carney should of been sacked).

Can you explain to me what a true stacker is please, I was under the impression you had a budget for the year and you tried to buy gold/silver or both as cheaply as possible.

People look at charts differently. also we are all made differently where I can wait months to buy others like to buy every month. 

I did buy a 2 sovs in October too but that was to hedge the bet I had on Trump to win.

Oh by the way I lost today on the Italian referendum I still have the hedged gold though from that bet 1/2 sov

[Silvergun]

14 hours ago, vand said:

Stacking has been entire

 

Really? Stacking has been entirely viable all year. If you had been a true stacker then the power of cost-averaging will have kicked in and the midyear bump in prices would maybe have increased your avg stack cost by a few 2-3% at the most.

In November 2015 i bought  100 x 2oz Turtles @ £23.24 delivered , in February 2016 i bought 110 x 2oz Turtles @ £26.61 each delivered why would i now buy in @ £35.90 each + delivery an increase of 35% + delivery . I have 940 oz of bullion @ ave £12 an oz  if i buy 100  2 oz turtles at todays price my ounce average will be £13.40 so this stacker is not stacking bullion at the moment but is still buying semi numismatics for set runs but instead of buying 20 of each am buying 5 of each.

[vand]

11 hours ago, Pipers said:

 

Can you explain to me what a true stacker is please, I was under the impression you had a budget for the year and you tried to buy gold/silver or both as cheaply as possible.

 

 

A true stacker is someone who accumulates ounces and buys on a regular basis regardless of fiat denomination.

If you let fiat price determine if you buy or not, hoping to catch a slightly cheaper price, then you by definition not a stacker, but a market timer.

 

You are partly correct, I have budget, but it is as a part of my ongoing monthly income! I don't have £50k sitting in my bank account waiting for a price dip, but I do have £50k of my salary over the next few years allocated to PMs (job situation notwithstanding). IMO that is the key to all good investing - regular underconsumption and buying of underpriced assets, not sporadic one-off purchases, whether it is in PMs, stocks, pension, mortgage payments, or any other vehicle.  

If you watch belangp's latest vid then he demonstrates the power of monthly accumulation and how it smooths out the bumps along the way.

[Pipers]

Belangp's on Youtube has some very good videos esp on what time of years to buy Gold and Silver, which I already knew from many years of buying Gold.  

It makes no sense to me to carry on buying anything when I know its over priced (In this case solely because the £ was devalued to much) as I said when opening the thread is £920 a price to start stacking again I believe so I maybe wrong and the £ may strengthen more and Gold may go down to £850 or below.  In the long term it is my belief Gold will rise with interest  rates this is just an opinion and one that most people do not agree with.  

You are doing the right thing in saving as am I we just are doing it a slightly different way, most people in the UK do not save at all apart from their house which most will never repay or will be at least 65 when they pay it back.    

[vand]

37 minutes ago, Pipers said:

Belangp's on Youtube has some very good videos esp on what time of years to buy Gold and Silver, which I already knew from many years of buying Gold.  

It makes no sense to me to carry on buying anything when I know its over priced (In this case solely because the £ was devalued to much) as I said when opening the thread is £920 a price to start stacking again I believe so I maybe wrong and the £ may strengthen more and Gold may go down to £850 or below.  In the long term it is my belief Gold will rise with interest  rates this is just an opinion and one that most people do not agree with.  

You are doing the right thing in saving as am I we just are doing it a slightly different way, most people in the UK do not save at all apart from their house which most will never repay or will be at least 65 when they pay it back.    

 

Most of us stack because we are of the opinion that PMs are vastly underpriced, which quite the opposite of what you suggest.

The problem with timing your purchases is that:

- it presupposes that you are correct about the price direction in the relative short term

- it presupposes that you are able to stick to your guns even if you are right and pull the trigger to buy once it reaches your target price

 

I will bet my bottom oz that 4 weeks ago when gold was £1040, if you had asked anybody on this forum that if gold was 15% cheaper this time next month would they buy, and everyone would have said "15% discount? absolutely yes". Now it is at this price, how many who had that conviction have gone ahead and pulled the trigger? The problem with this casual sort of buying is that targets are always moving, and price targets are always relative to today's price. You are letting short term price movement determine your long term strategy, not vice versa. Even you are expecting price to rise in the long term, so you are guessing that price will move to £850 before moving much higher? Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but don't take it personally if it does not play out as you are expecting or hoping, and have a firm plan in place in case it does the opposite.

 

I am not saying that it is absolutely black or white. You can mix strategies. I do myself, and have enough cash reserve so that I can make an extra purchase if the price is really smacked down (as I did this month), but as I say I believe that the basis of good investing is consistent accumulation, not a series of one-off decisions driven by short term volatility.

 

 

[watchesandwhisky]

For me I only want bullion and have a price in my head where i will start buying much more heavy, thats £12.50 per ounce landed on silver and £180/185 per sovereign.

Might not get there for a while or if at all, until then spoons at spot price or below will do. 

[Pipers]

On 12/5/2016 at 13:12, vand said:

The problem with this casual sort of buying is that targets are always moving, and price targets are always relative to today's price. You are letting short term price movement determine your long term strategy, not vice versa. Even you are expecting price to rise in the long term, so you are guessing that price will move to £850 before moving much higher?

 

 

Believe me I am not and do not take a Casual sort of buying method to Gold or Silver.  I Could see a market that was high in £ terms. Plus I noticed plenty on this forum sold off plenty of their stack or shall we call it re-adjusted their stack or had a few duplicates to get rid of just when the Gold price was high.  Certainly there was a tremendous amount of Gold around compared to the low of 12 months a ago and 18 months ago when hardly nobody was readjusting their stack or disposing of duplicates.  

I stand by my statement that Gold will rise with interest rates/ inflation.  This is contrary to most who think Gold will go down when interest rates go up.      

[HawkHybrid]

28 minutes ago, Pipers said:

I stand by my statement that Gold will rise with interest rates/ inflation.  This is contrary to most who think Gold will go down when interest rates go up.

 

the argument peter schiff gives for this is that higher rates

increases the risk on borrowings/debt. higher returns at

the bank is going to be overshadowed by the real risk of

not being able to access your currency for maybe 20 years.

higher rates in a stable environment is bad for gold.

 

HH

[Pipers]

12 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

the argument peter schiff gives for this is that higher rates

increases the risk on borrowings/debt. higher returns at

the bank is going to be overshadowed by the real risk of

not being able to access your currency for maybe 20 years.

higher rates in a stable environment is bad for gold.

 

HH

Hi HH, I make my analysis from history the 1970's and early 1980's where Gold did very well, and only was broken because of the very high US Treasury (and Uk gilts) Bonds that was offered.  There is an awful long way to go for Treasury's to start to look a good alternative to gold, I think it was 14% on a one year gilt I got when I was a lad my first investment I wanted gold but my grandfather and his brother decided I would do better with a gilt. 

IMO with inflation just starting to pick up and it is in the real world here in the UK I am not talking about the ever changing government basket of good I am talking real world prices are just starting to bite.  If you do not believe me just watch how desperate the Martin Lewis show was this for everyone to Change gas electric supplier, then their is eat for less programmes budget budget your money though this has disappeared.  All of these TV programmes are government nudge getting the population ready for harder times because of inflation (nothing to do with brexit ) we were and are in the sh_t anyway 2 trillion on book debts government not including off book PFI ect, then private debt is on top of this. 

That's why our Government will try everything to pretend there is very little inflation in our economy this includes working welfare, immigration to keep wages down but in the end they can only steal/cheat the population for so long before inflation bites hard. Future generations will not thank this lot of politicians and the previous 30 years lot!

I say invest in different sectors though buy when the sector is not expensive!!!