Jump to content
  • The above Banner is a Sponsored Banner.

    Upgrade to Premium Membership to remove this Banner & All Google Ads. For full list of Premium Member benefits Click HERE.

  • Join The Silver Forum

    The Silver Forum is one of the largest and best loved silver and gold precious metals forums in the world, established since 2014. Join today for FREE! Browse the sponsor's topics (hidden to guests) for special deals and offers, check out the bargains in the members trade section and join in with our community reacting and commenting on topic posts. If you have any questions whatsoever about precious metals collecting and investing please join and start a topic and we will be here to help with our knowledge :) happy stacking/collecting. 21,000+ forum members and 1 million+ forum posts. For the latest up to date stats please see the stats in the right sidebar when browsing from desktop. Sign up for FREE to view the forum with reduced ads. 

£GBP heading to oblivion


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 187
  • Created
  • Last Reply

IMO BOE interest rates should be around the 4-5% area, though with enormous debts the government will do everything it can to stop interest rates getting to those levels. I have given it a lot of thought and IMO the government should take back the BOE freeze interest on its debts and declare bankruptcy. As a nation we own nothing anyway the Government then could write the debt off. 
Instead what will happen is the government will roll the debt over make more cuts to services people who pay taxes will question why pay tax at all when you get nothing for it!  banks will do rather well out of it thanking very much. 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hear a lot of nonsense talk about "normalisation" of interest rates and central bank balance sheet "normalisation".  This is all nonsense, super low interest rates and central bank asset purchases are the new normal.  Global economies simply cannot handle anything else.  BoE will not be raising rates during Brexit.  What they will do is jawbone as if they are considering a rate rise which will strengthen Sterling resulting in reduction of import inflation which in turn reduces the need for an actual rate rise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Sterling under pressure again today from both the Euro and the USD , I personally cannot see any light for sterling for quite a while now.  The country is in a mess and the BOE has given to much free money to the wrong place the CITY who have stuffed it into their own pockets and not spent it in the real world.  

They really are idiots the people who run the country that or they have done the biggest bank heist ever!!!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Until rates rise the £ will struggle, although it is undervalued now from what I have seen. Personally I think the Euro should be struggling all things considered and I believe the picture will be very different in a couple of years.

Last month there was a vague expectation of a rate rise being looked at in August, some of the committee members were considering it, though with the FED backing off and inflation falling somewhat since then, a rate rise by the BOE is looking far less likely. It is also only a year since rates were cut here and Carney won't admit he was wrong that quickly if he can help it. There are plenty of excuses not to raise at the moment.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The markets (whatever that means) are anticipating a hard Brexit. In other words the City of London losing Euro passporting rights. If this should happen, I can see the pound going to 0.75 to the Euro or even lower. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Possible, but consider the effect on the Euro once the UK stops contributions to the EU budget, perhaps a few months before this event. I don't see the £ being in a worse position than the Euro once this happens. Shorter term, interest rates are the key. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The loss of payments coming from the UK will definitely impact the EU negatively, but the UK will take the hit more than the Eurozone. I mean, not the average citizen, but the financial sector. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its all noise,  if the UK were thinking of a hard brexit they would be preparing now, with ports being upgraded on the West side of the Country eg Liverpool, Portsmouth, Glasgow etc.  Just ask yourself  why would any ship from around the world want to port in the North Sea.  

It makes no sense for the MPs to talk hard and do nothing on infrastructure and the Europeans know this, if the UK did do a hard brexit the country would have to go back to be a sea trading/ air port trading country with enormous warehouses.  There would have to be a lot of money spent on upgrading infrastructure and communications.  We would be in the real world and we would have to be the best to attract the best talent , goods (hub)  in every sector.  Rather than spending the money on a vanity train project.   

The Europeans are in trouble too. They have massive debts, I have no regrets voting to leave the EU, i am very disappointed with the fudge that has gone on since the vote, it has shown us that Democracy in the UK is a farce.            

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do you believe trade will change radically? I have my doubts that it will be much different at all economically, politically yes and long term economically yes, for the better. It is interesting hearing different views and everytime someone mentions brexit there is a different idea what it will look like. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Dollar index is getting absolutely smashed. The chart is ugly.

 

I'm would actually expect to far more strength in PMs given recent dollar weakness, but I think we will see rotation back into PMs once stocks have a wobble. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we really were to take a hard exit from Europe, trade with the rest of the world, then the country would have to change radically.  For one we would be a Tax haven; for the rest of the country wealth would come from trading ports, tourism,  service sector and the arms industry.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I Ignore most of the UK media on Brexit entirely, they're either looking for clicks or have their own agenda to spin. The EU need this to work just as much as the UK. Londons financial centre basically runs the Eurozone system right now, the EU are very much looking at a cliff edge too if suddenly they cannot access London.

The EU & UK will agree a FTA as close to the single market without actually being the single market.

Bottom line for the UK will be no ECJ law, and since there is no legal justification on any Brexit Bill - anything this country does cough up will be dependent on getting that FTA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, metallica73 said:

The EU & UK will agree a FTA as close to the single market without actually being the single market.

 

 

Would this not result in other countries lining up to leave the EU ? I suspect it would and that the EU will for this reason be harsher on the UK than you are suggesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, jacksj1 said:

 

Would this not result in other countries lining up to leave the EU ? I suspect it would and that the EU will for this reason be harsher on the UK than you are suggesting.

No other country is in the UK's position. 2nd highest net contributor, own currency & central bank, world financial centre etc. Not saying i't won't happen, but any 'punishment' of the UK given we are the EU's best customer, that we are propping up Eastern Europes jobs market and that lots of Euro finance is churned through London is basically the EU shooting itself in the foot.

They'll feed crap to the media for another 18 months and then agree a position where it looks like both sides can spin a position that they came out on top.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 21/07/2017 at 12:37, metallica73 said:

Londons financial centre basically runs the Eurozone system right now, the EU are very much looking at a cliff edge too if suddenly they cannot access London.

 

It's the other way round : once the UK is fully out of the single market, the Euro passporting rights are basically over and big finance will route either through Dublin, Paris, Luxembourg or Frankfurt or a combination of the above. 

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-citi-plans-eu-broker-dealer-in-frankfurt-after-brexit-2017-7?IR=T

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, savoyard said:

It's the other way round : once the UK is fully out of the single market, the Euro passporting rights are basically over and big finance will route either through Dublin, Paris, Luxembourg or Frankfurt or a combination of the above. 

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-citi-plans-eu-broker-dealer-in-frankfurt-after-brexit-2017-7?IR=T

Euro passporting is such a minor part of the Citys business. The EU cannot prevent Euro trading in London, they would have to prevent NY from doing so as well. Not going to happen.

Dublin, Paris, Luxembourg & Frankfurt put together do not do a fraction of the clearing London does. Most of these new 'jobs' moving to Frankfurt are brass plate moves. For every 200 jobs in Frankfurt, 5000 stay in London.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

The euro may be good in the short term because of the strength of the German economy, but Europe faces headwinds at least as strong as those of the US. Europe has an aging population, huge debt, unaffordable welfare programmes, insolvent banks, high unemployment in the PIIGS countries, and a migrant crisis. If you want a model of where Europe, including the UK, is going in the next 20 years, look at Argentina. It was once one of the most prosperous countries in the world; then it caught a bad case of socialism and spent the next 40 years lurching from crisis to crisis, defaulting on its debts, and suffering high inflation and unemployment.

I would say if you are looking for relatively safe currencies you are better off with the Singaporean dollar, NZ dollar or Norwegian krone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Bumble part of my family lived in Argentina in the 60s and 70s. Argentina has always been a boom and bust economy. My uncles went to Argentina pennyless and became bank executives with fabulous salaries in less than 10 years. Then they left pennyless again. Already during the Peron years (hardly a socialist by any means) Argentina was suffering, then the military came in (again, hardly socialists) and finished the country off. 

I agree that both continental Europe and the UK are finished. We have no empires left, no slave nations to rape and pillage and almost no natural resources (apart from a bit of oil in the North Sea).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@KDave maybe that will be true for 2018 but unless the eurozone implements a common fiscal AND monetary policy AND removes some dead wood countries AND doesn't allow anymore  dead wood countries it won't be the strongest currency for long

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope you are right, personally I believe the same - the UK is the strong hand right now and more so post Brexit, but the market does have a tendency to disagree with me an awful lot (another way of saying, I am often wrong :P)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...

Cookies & terms of service

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. By continuing to use this site you consent to the use of cookies and to our Privacy Policy & Terms of Use