Jump to content
  • The above Banner is a Sponsored Banner.

    Upgrade to Premium Membership to remove this Banner & All Google Ads. For full list of Premium Member benefits Click HERE.

  • Join The Silver Forum

    The Silver Forum is one of the largest and best loved silver and gold precious metals forums in the world, established since 2014. Join today for FREE! Browse the sponsor's topics (hidden to guests) for special deals and offers, check out the bargains in the members trade section and join in with our community reacting and commenting on topic posts. If you have any questions whatsoever about precious metals collecting and investing please join and start a topic and we will be here to help with our knowledge :) happy stacking/collecting. 21,000+ forum members and 1 million+ forum posts. For the latest up to date stats please see the stats in the right sidebar when browsing from desktop. Sign up for FREE to view the forum with reduced ads. 

Interest rates


SpacedMarine

Recommended Posts

Well it seems as though the smart money is selling everything until mother yellen announces whether the fed will raise rates this millenium.Gold has taken a hit as people expect that they will raise rates.After all the talking about raising rates and little action (0.25% in 8 years) I personally don't see why most of the financial world hangs on Janet Yellens every utterance.What odds do you guys give on a U.S. rate rise?We gonna put a sweepstake on????.

Personally I give it about a 5% chance of a raise .I'm not sure what excuse they will use this time.Maybe someone did a particularly bad fart in the back office and they had to evacuate the building.

Anyway rant over!

One of the most powerful women in the world!Does anyone actually understand the gobbledygook or do you think its a central bank joke to completely confuse everyone?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I give it 0.25% chance they will raise rates :P - in other words its not going to happen. Not before the election. 

As far as Yellen is concerned she is either suffering an illness, is unfit to be the chairman and should retire, or she is pretending that she is ill as a distraction. If its the latter then things must be very very bad indeed. 

It still surprises me that market moves are led by speeches from the central bankers. She says a few words that mean nothing, the market decides to take action in one direction or another. When will people learn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, KDave said:

I give it 0.25% chance they will raise rates :P - in other words its not going to happen. Not before the election. 

As far as Yellen is concerned she is either suffering an illness, is unfit to be the chairman and should retire, or she is pretending that she is ill as a distraction. If its the latter then things must be very very bad indeed. 

It still surprises me that market moves are led by speeches from the central bankers. She says a few words that mean nothing, the market decides to take action in one direction or another. When will people learn.

It was almost as if she couldnt lie anymore and wanted to say something Long the lines of "were sorry we dont know what we're doing please stop making investment decisions based on what we say.It started as a joke but its gone too far.You know how you thought your money was worth something?well its not!you might as well be using toilet paper its a big scam !" Or something like that ???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think they can ever raise rates again and the day they do is the day they decide to crash the economy.  How come nobody has wisened up to the Feds game to talk up the US economy, they have been at it for years now.  They wheel out Yellen and various Fed Officials to try and talk things into moving without actually doing anything and if that does not work they release minutes of meetings to try and move things along without actually doing anything again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed the most we can expect is another 0.25% at most as a face saving effort just like last time. Even that I see as highly unlikely, we are talking far future if it happens imo. Politicians in many countries (including our own) are looking to get spending again and that means increasing that debt load - you can't have more debt and higher interest rates and still keep the plates spinning as far as I can tell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The craziest thing about it is that the market moves are initiated by computer algorithms which look and listen for particular words from the Fed heads, it's not even educated human beings making informed decisions. 

I think for the hundredth time we'll see them do nothing but suggest a possible rate rise next time, which will no doubt be enough to knock down PMs further and get everyone throwing their paper debt tokens at stocks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, SilvergunSuperman said:

The craziest thing about it is that the market moves are initiated by computer algorithms which look and listen for particular words from the Fed heads, it's not even educated human beings making informed decisions. 

I think for the hundredth time we'll see them do nothing but suggest a possible rate rise next time, which will no doubt be enough to knock down PMs further and get everyone throwing their paper debt tokens at stocks.

If this is really the case, I can see that there would be profit to be made from the short term move if your algo's are quick enough to position but you would still need people to be making a decision on their own positions to benefit. Also anything longer than short term positions are not likely to be successful if the algorithms can be influenced by someones speech lol. From a pragmatic point of view if the speculator people want to make money with short term price actions and directly contribute to them, then that logically opens up an opportunity for anyone wanting to add to long term positions. Each time the FED spouts becomes a buying opportunity, unless of course we decide to believe what they say too :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Janet Yellen's remarks could conceivably be construed as not entirely inconsistent with the possibility of an increased probability of a potential rate hike some time in the indeterminate future, subject to various uncertainties including published and unpublished economic data, projections, forecasts, predictions and sundry factors and other dependencies.

In other words, she likes talking about rate hikes, but they aren't going to happen any time soon. Maybe a quarter percent in December.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-09/bondmageddon-sparks-crude-carnage-biggest-stock-slump-7-months

Looks like everything but the US dollar sold off on Friday in rather dramatic fashion.

When the market reacts this way, does it make it more likely? Does it increase the pressure on the FED to raise rates or lose credibility - Or is it more likely Yellen will use this market reaction to not raise rates? Personally I think its the latter as a market sell off before a rate hike is a proven way to get Yellen to not do it lol. 

Also I can't see Yellen allowing this to continue when we are so close to the US election. Especially given how often and how loudly both Obama and Hillary point to the stock market and give it the all 'Look how strong the economy and the recovery is' BS, while Trump says the opposite and that its all fake. Who knows though maybe this is it. Buying opportunities in everything ahead and Harry Dent is right for the wrong reasons.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, KDave said:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-09/bondmageddon-sparks-crude-carnage-biggest-stock-slump-7-months

Looks like everything but the US dollar sold off on Friday in rather dramatic fashion.

When the market reacts this way, does it make it more likely? Does it increase the pressure on the FED to raise rates or lose credibility - Or is it more likely Yellen will use this market reaction to not raise rates? Personally I think its the latter as a market sell off before a rate hike is a proven way to get Yellen to not do it lol. 

Also I can't see Yellen allowing this to continue when we are so close to the US election. Especially given how often and how loudly both Obama and Hillary point to the stock market and give it the all 'Look how strong the economy and the recovery is' BS, while Trump says the opposite and that its all fake. Who knows though maybe this is it. Buying opportunities in everything ahead and Harry Dent is right for the wrong reasons.

 

Its fine.This is the excuse that Yellen needs to "stimulate" not raise rates.The bubble is in government you can hear the hissing sound(brexit,frexit,trump,g20 snubbing obama).Why do you think there is so much sabre rattling?The same thing happened last year and when they actually raised rates we had a "black monday" now the stocks are all time highs again and gold is 25% higher! meaning there was no rate rise!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

A not unintelligent perspective;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/20/get-ready-for-the-mother-of-all-stock-market-corrections-once-ce/

 

I have literally just flipped a coin :lol:, so put me down for a 100,000,000 bet on no rate rise (just like the market does as it has no idea either)

 

EDIT - Well, I was right about Japan. They kept rates on hold for now, so I'll just nip off and buy that small island I had my eye on yesterday. Next up, Yellen. Let's see how the ole coin toss does against the experts. So far, the coin looks like a genius and I'm a gazillion quid to the good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The "sisters" will of course. But that is very rarefied air. The majority of the market....the semi bigs, you and me etc will still get taken to the cleaners....although I am still massively up on my coin toss with 100,000,000 ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have been in a room as part of business where I was the only one who wasn't an old Etonian.....they do none of the work, take all the credit and.....

problem is, without the connections, the hardworking businessmen from all backgrounds would have gotten nowhere fast. It is not fair but it is what it is....reality...meanwhile these lads nailed it back when I was a lad.

And for those that believe in an -ism, I strongly recommend reading Animal Farm by George Orwell for alesson in human inability to not interfere or become what they say they wont...the ultimate satire...easy read for those who have not read, subtitled, "A Fairy Story" by the great man himself...readable in one weeks worth of travel to work, it is that easy of a read....it and An Inspector Calls by J.B Priestly, one of the founders of the drive for the NHS back in the day. The play was first performed in Russia as it was considered unnaceptable by the remnants of the British Imperial rulng class at the time......either way, both very easy reads...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If they raise the rates - games over.

If the hold the rates - games over.

Just a question of timescale baby.

Holders of gold should be alright when the game ends. Could be wrong, but ultimately I don't see anyway out of the mess we are in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, KDave said:

If they raise the rates - games over.

If the hold the rates - games over.

Just a question of timescale baby.

Holders of gold should be alright when the game ends. Could be wrong, but ultimately I don't see anyway out of the mess we are in. 

Just may have to sell it all to cover future taxes or get sent to prison for hoarding and being an enemy of the state!Lets hope common sense prevails.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SpacedMarine said:

Just may have to sell it all to cover future taxes or get sent to prison for hoarding and being an enemy of the state!Lets hope common sense prevails.

If people don't know you have it then its all good. If they do know you have it then just become a member of the nearest boating club and its all good too. :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...

Cookies & terms of service

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. By continuing to use this site you consent to the use of cookies and to our Privacy Policy & Terms of Use