Buying Sterling!!!!!

[Pipers]

If the £ goes much lower I am going to start to buy Sterling!!!

The proposal is Osborne and Carney are going to start devaluing the £ even more through helicopter money over the City of London (nice for them).  If this happens and Sterling weakens to under $1.30 I am going to start to buy the £.  I have noticed over the last few years the free money to the City does nothing to the real economy and in reality is a tax on th population.  This time though I think Osborne and Carney may go to far and here is why,  

Up to now non of the quantitative easing has made its way into the real economy to the mass population, in fact the money just seems to go around and around the markets and into extremely expensive real estate.  The normal people have gone about their lives as normal and a £ is a £ non of the extra money has come to them. On top of this Carney is going to reduce interest rates, probably by a 1/4% this will also weaken the £.  This will boost the markets may push the FTSE up to near 7000.

This is where it may unravel for Osborne and Carney, the market will set the rate for the £ and £1.25 will be to low, the other central banks won't like the UK devaluing more than them, faster than them.  I can see a race to the bottom starting or a phone call coming from other central banks telling the BOE to stop.  

Lets be clear here there is a case for interest rates to be increased, get the recession over and done with and start again!  

The medium term/ long term level for Sterling, IMO the £ will be in a range of $1.35-$1.45               

[Ravinella]

Very Best of Luck........

[HawkHybrid]

what makes sterling a better buy than pms?

guaranteed lower rates/qe. guaranteed inflation?

things could get ugly this time round? it's too speculative,

too much of a traders game for me.

 

HH

[Pipers]

I will tell you one thing if I am thinking it then lots of others are, Osborne and Carney have a poor track record, just look back sterling has fallen.  I know most on here don't like to play in the currency markets. Just remember the last time £ fell to very low levels there was very bad civil unrest the establishment will not want that.    

 

 

 

[HawkHybrid]

if £ devalues and then dollar and euro devalues,

are you then able to buy more goods and services

with your money?

 

put another way, from 2003 to 2009, £ rose 50%

against $. in the same time period gold rose 100+%.

 

HH

[Bumble]

I think one could reasonably argue that GBPUSD at the pre-brexit rate of 1.47 was much too high, especially considering the UK's large balance of trade deficit. The brexit vote was a catalyst for a reduction, but it might well have fallen anyway.

[HighlandTiger]

And there was me thinking you'd just bought some nice silver spoons  

[Pipers]

Who's saying I didn't?. 

1:47 may well of been high, but the markets are having to many free lunches and 7000 would be to high for the FTSE when the real economy is struggling.  

The UK economy is doing badly nothing to do with brexit more to do with Osborne and Carney's running of the economy no excuse they have been in charge for over 6years now! 

My other point is, why would investors lend/ buy British Gilts if the returns are nearly the same as USD? It make no sense at all.  When investors  realise this the BOE and the Treasury will have to tighten and then the  £ will strengthen. 

The sooner we get back to capitalism the better for everyone. 

[HawkHybrid]

8 minutes ago, Pipers said:

My other point is, why would investors lend/ buy British Gilts if the returns are nearly the same as USD? It make no sense at all.  When investors  realise this the BOE and the Treasury will have to tighten and then the  £ will strengthen. 

 

I don't agree with this. in my opinion the more likely outcome

is massive money printing backed by nothing (qe). I'm all for

a better economy/future but believe it will be a long wait yet.

since brexit is only the beginning of the fight. raising rates

will be a step towards a more honest return given for borrowing

someone's hard earned savings?

 

HH

[Pipers]

HH, I am not saying their won't be massive QE, some of which will be used to buy sterling (mad). At some point investors will not buy gilts and Osborne's balance sheet will look even worse he will not be able to fudge his figures. 

I can't find the report but I read (I think BBC) the BOE are monitoring all trades in the city in the currency markets and asking for the banks books every day for currency flows. 

[vand]

My GPBEUR position is well under water, LOL. 

I expect the bounce to come eventually... even if there is weakness in the interim.

We are close to a bottom. Seen it all before. 

[Pipers]

I am now of the opinion that the £ will grind to $1.20 maybe lower, also I am not selling Gold in fact i may buy on a dip, IMO there is a risk of a very big crisis being triggered by commercial property defaults this is now under way.  

IMO Lots of investors (Pension funds and middle class) have been chasing yield since 2009 they will find they only get a % of their stake back or they could even lose their ticket. The BOE is worrying Carney has been out 3 times in a week.  This could then spread to Europe.  

When the the £ gets really low I will start to buy £.  

[Cornishfarmer]

@Pipers when you mean buying £ do you mean saving cash or do you mean buying £ with other currencies?

[Pipers]

Selling $, selling commodities, Equities etc,

 

My long term INVESTMENTS  will stay the same 

Gold, Funds, Bonds, property.  

I have already moved more of my portfolio into Gold in January and March. 

Please note I have not bought new Bonds for a while as they are not good value.     

  

[HawkHybrid]

2 hours ago, Pipers said:

Gold, Funds, Bonds, property.

 

bonds are a traders game? are you sure the return on

bonds even beat inflation? maybe consider the possibility

of selling some? if bond yields are not so good value

maybe it's time to sell?

 

HH

[Pipers]

Cockroach investing!

Over the long term.

This should help Link  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-invest-like-a-cockroach-2014-02-10

 

[KDave]

Cockroach investing, also known as the permanent portfolio - very tempting given its historic returns and something I considered previously. I can't do it because of the bonds. Really do not like them, too risky imo.

I like the idea of timing a move back into sterling but do not want to time it badly and be stuck in a currency that rises in value against the dollar/euro only to fall in real value compared to everything else. In the short/medium term it appears the intentions of TPTB is to destroy the currency to save the bubble. Good luck to them, I am mostly out of sterling for the time being. 

Property is definitely looking shakey on the commercial side, but as I said the people in charge will do everything in their power to save the bubble (otherwise known as the economy - built mostly on the banking sector, which funnily enough has a big stake in property). Perhaps in a few years it will be time to move straight from one asset to another and avoid sterling all together! 

[Pipers]

 I think we may of seen a first attempt of a hit down in Gold if I am right there are going to be a lot more coming up.  

It may be a bullion bank trying to close a short position or it could be central banks starting to drive the Gold price down to buy more Physical.    

[sovereignsteve]

If you are talking about the action at around 1.30 today UK time, there was a lot of high impact news around then.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

 

[HelpingHands]

£ MIGHT be about to go up if Leadsom pulls out and May gets PM by default.

[HelpingHands]

What is they reopen nominations and Boris steps in this time. Worth a look at the odds.

[Clens92]

3 minutes ago, HelpingHands said:

What is they reopen nominations and Boris steps in this time. Worth a look at the odds.

They won't - there's no precedent and Boris bottled it.

Would have preferred Leadsom, but May might do alright for us.  She's more Eurosceptic than she lets on.

[HelpingHands]

I bet some people in the Labour party are wondering if they can also choreograph a leadership election that doesn't go to the members.

[Clens92]

Nearly a £15 drop in 20 minutes.  Impressively bad.

 

Interesting times ahead: Labour's NEC are evenly-split on whether Corbyn automatically gets a spot on the ballot paper, without 50 signatures.  Could he get 50 signatures of needed?  Probably.

Eagle isn't a leader, at all. 

I'd be tempted to have a bet on a snap General Election, Spring 2017.  May will see the chaos of the Labour Party at the moment... why risk a resurgent party under David Miliband or Chukka Umana in 2020, when you can stay in power until 2022 with relative ease by calling an early election.

 

I don't really care, so long as gold keeps going up!

[BaldyBob]

23 minutes ago, Clens92 said:

I'd be tempted to have a bet on a snap General Election, Spring 2017.  May will see the chaos of the Labour Party at the moment... why risk a resurgent party under David Miliband or Chukka Umana in 2020, when you can stay in power until 2022 with relative ease by calling an early election.

New fixed term parliament means no chance till 2020, and when there is an election, May vs Eagle?, not a choice worth making either way.