Matched betting, Bonus bagging, Arbing, gubbing & Bookie Bashing

[sovereignsteve]

14 minutes ago, Scuzzle said:

You can sometimes beat the bookies but they are not long in catching on and stopping it, the guys who worked out that the odds for a hole in one in golf tournaments were way higher than they should be is one example.  Another example is the FOBT's, the 'force the zero' method really did work for a few years until they figured it out and put a stop to it.

the odds on a 147 break in the snooker world championship or a 9 dart finish are other examples of odds that the bookies got completely wrong in the past.

Also, if you have ever done any US off shore books, some of their "props" bet odds are way wrong at times. Arbing can be very easy with these, and I mean big arbs.

[HighlandTiger]

7 hours ago, Scuzzle said:

 Another example is the FOBT's, the 'force the zero' method really did work for a few years until they figured it out and put a stop to it.

I'd love to know how you thought this method actually worked. It never has, and never will.   

[Scuzzle]

2 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

I'd love to know how you thought this method actually worked. It never has, and never will.   

In the early days of FOBT's this system did work at first, they must analyse data and re-jig the software because one day it just stopped working , I used a variation on it where I put a pound on red and a pound on black and just used to spin away 50x spins using a click counter before putting a pound on zero for 10x spins then £2 for another 10x spins and so on.  If a zero came up within the 50x spins I had to start again.

I made money from this every time without fail, the machine would stick for a minute or two sometimes before spinning as if it would love to give anything other than the zero,I would make £200+ a day.  The downside to this system is it's very time consuming and I would hear the roulette wheel spinning when trying to get to sleep at night but it did work for a good long while at first.

[sovereignsteve]

FOBT?

I assume on-line casino stuff?

The early days of these were very lucrative, some of the bonuses were crazy with hardly any roll-over before withdrawing "winnings". By the time I had a go the glory days were over and mega roll-overs were the order of the day. I never did risk any of my own money; some of the Costa Rican books I played at did brill re-loads of sportsbook cash plus matched casino bonuses. Blackjack is the way to go to burn up mega roll-overs (in the region of x100 if memory serves); the house edge for correct play is less than 1%.

Due to variance, you can sometimes build up a large amount quickly with $50 or $100 stakes then reduce down to $1 and slowly burn through the roll-over. Ball-breakingly boring but I cleared £3 - 4 k in a few weeks and then walked away back to arbing the sportsbooks.

[daz]

fobt = fixed odds betting terminals , basically fruit machines in the shops 

[sovereignsteve]

51 minutes ago, daz said:

fobt = fixed odds betting terminals , basically fruit machines in the shops 

I thought these were the latest craze for bookies to extract more money from the poor addicted mugs of the betting world. Aren't they similar to the old fruit machines with a certain % payout regardless - guaranteed profit?

[HighlandTiger]

6 hours ago, Scuzzle said:

In the early days of FOBT's this system did work at first, they must analyse data and re-jig the software because one day it just stopped working , I used a variation on it where I put a pound on red and a pound on black and just used to spin away 50x spins using a click counter before putting a pound on zero for 10x spins then £2 for another 10x spins and so on.  If a zero came up within the 50x spins I had to start again.

I made money from this every time without fail, the machine would stick for a minute or two sometimes before spinning as if it would love to give anything other than the zero,I would make £200+ a day.  The downside to this system is it's very time consuming and I would hear the roulette wheel spinning when trying to get to sleep at night but it did work for a good long while at first.

 For Sov Steve. FOBT = Fixed Odds Betting Terminal (or bookies puggie as they say in Glasgow) 

LOL, sorry Scuzzle but you were just very lucky. The reason it "stopped" had nothing to do with any software. Believe me, inspite of any urban legends, these terminals have never been "fixed". There has been the odd terminal that was broken and gave out dodgy payments, but they have never been altered since the day they were first put in the bookies shops.

You were just mixing two known "systems", (neither of which actually work), "force the zero" and "martingale". The reason it stopped "working" for you was the same reason all systems with names don't work in the long run. It's all about probability, and in the end the winning run will stop and you will lose. It's as simple as that.

[HighlandTiger]

3 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

I thought these were the latest craze for bookies to extract more money from the poor addicted mugs of the betting world. Aren't they similar to the old fruit machines with a certain % payout regardless - guaranteed profit?

Correct. The odds are fixed to whatever the actual odds are in playing any casino game. Unlike old fruit machines which can be altered to pay out between 60% and 95%, these terminals have a strict payout depending on the game in question. This payout cannot be altered, inspite of what punters, (usually the ones that lose) think. 

[daz]

thought id have a check on the latest sign up offers and they are all pretty crap at the moment but if you are going to have a small bet it would be worth 888sport , they are offering 3x the odds on any bet, any market ,any odds on your first bet . ten quid max stake .

not a guaranteed winner but worth doing if your placing a bet anyway

[sovereignsteve]

4 hours ago, daz said:

thought id have a check on the latest sign up offers and they are all pretty crap at the moment but if you are going to have a small bet it would be worth 888sport , they are offering 3x the odds on any bet, any market ,any odds on your first bet . ten quid max stake .

not a guaranteed winner but worth doing if your placing a bet anyway

I think when I joined laddies, it was place a £200 or £250 bet and get a free bet to the same value, which was a "stake not returned" bet but you could extract about 75 - 80% of the bet value laying at longish odds. it was during Cheltenham though, when the bookies used to give better offers.

The wife could join too!

IIRC paddies did do a £1k free bet offer a couple of times as well, but I think you had to place 10 equivalent bets to get it. A bit risky IMO.

My first Cheltenham week, I think I made about £1k with no risk whatsoever,

Re; the 888sport offer, you could easily extract a guaranteed return at no risk, but hardly worth the effort for a £10 stake. When I joined them, it was a £88 free bet.

[HelpingHands]

So those FOBTs are percentage payout and not a random number generator?

The only way I can see Scuzzle's bet working is if they were programmed to produce a fair share of each winning number over a short period of time. 

If they are a random number generator then each number will win fairly equally but over a very long period of time.

If they are like a fruit machine with %payout then you're hoping that other people have lost heavily before you and the numbers you play won't matter.

 

[Scuzzle]

The FOBT's have a random number generator but it's not a true RNG it's a programmed RNG and it has undergone a few tweeks over the years,.  When they first came out people were winning and losing thousands on them now you only lose thousands.  When they first came out you were guaranteed to get at least one zero every 120 spins max but usually less than this.  You hit the button and the machine decides if you are to get a winning spin or a losing spin.  The FOBT does not simply use an RNG to pick one from all 37 numbers instead they have banks of 12x numbers to choose from for 10 spins then those 12 numbers are swapped out for 12 more.  The new batch of numbers are introduced in order to maintain the correct 'randomness' over the long term but also do so to maintain the set win percentage for the operator. This is why you will often see a simple black/red backer have an entire screen of whatever colour he is not on come up on the history, on a real roulette wheel how often do 14 blacks come up in a row.

The idea by putting a £1 on red and a £1 on black and spinning was you always got a winning spin so the machine would hunt out of it's 12 numbers to get you a losing spin and would keep failing and keep trying, eventually it would work the zero in to try and foil you.  This did work at first and I used it for about 2 years with breaks in between purely because it was so boring and time consuming but one day it did just stop and the FOBTS went from very loose paying to very tight so I gave up on them.

Highland Tiger is right in that is is part Martingale but the problem with Martingale is your bet usually rises to a point where you can't afford to put it on, £2 becomes £4 becomes £8 and so forth but if you know your number is coming up within 120 spins max and you spin away 50x or 60x first at no cost before even starting your Martingale on zero - £1 for 10 spins, then £2 for ten spins then £4 for ten spins you know you will get your number up and your profit before your bankroll runs out.  It did work at first before the operators caught on to it.

 

[HighlandTiger]

9 hours ago, Scuzzle said:

The FOBT's have a random number generator but it's not a true RNG it's a programmed RNG and it has undergone a few tweeks over the years,.  When they first came out people were winning and losing thousands on them now you only lose thousands.  When they first came out you were guaranteed to get at least one zero every 120 spins max but usually less than this.  You hit the button and the machine decides if you are to get a winning spin or a losing spin.  The FOBT does not simply use an RNG to pick one from all 37 numbers instead they have banks of 12x numbers to choose from for 10 spins then those 12 numbers are swapped out for 12 more.  The new batch of numbers are introduced in order to maintain the correct 'randomness' over the long term but also do so to maintain the set win percentage for the operator. This is why you will often see a simple black/red backer have an entire screen of whatever colour he is not on come up on the history, on a real roulette wheel how often do 14 blacks come up in a row.

The idea by putting a £1 on red and a £1 on black and spinning was you always got a winning spin so the machine would hunt out of it's 12 numbers to get you a losing spin and would keep failing and keep trying, eventually it would work the zero in to try and foil you.  This did work at first and I used it for about 2 years with breaks in between purely because it was so boring and time consuming but one day it did just stop and the FOBTS went from very loose paying to very tight so I gave up on them.

Highland Tiger is right in that is is part Martingale but the problem with Martingale is your bet usually rises to a point where you can't afford to put it on, £2 becomes £4 becomes £8 and so forth but if you know your number is coming up within 120 spins max and you spin away 50x or 60x first at no cost before even starting your Martingale on zero - £1 for 10 spins, then £2 for ten spins then £4 for ten spins you know you will get your number up and your profit before your bankroll runs out.  It did work at first before the operators caught on to it.

 

I'm sorry mate, but there are several things that you have got totally wrong, and it's probably why you think the terminals are fixed.

One, your description, wherever you got it from, about how the random numbers are generated is wrong, simply wrong in all respects. An urban legend created by gamblers who need a reason behind why their systems don't work anymore, and why they will always lose in the long run at casinos or on FOBT's

Two, it is simple maths, but your question of how often do 14 blacks in a row come up, well it's exactly the same as any other combination. In fact to paraphrase Tim Minchin, "it happens all the time". There is a reason why casinos have table limits. It prevents people from using a martingale system when betting on a single colour because long streaks of one colour or another occur regularly.

Three, anyone who uses a martingale system for anything, needs to have their head examined, you will lose, end of, no discussion. It is singly the worst system ever invented by someone who has no knowledge of the laws of probablity.

However I see I will probably not be able to convince you of your misconceptions, but you are wrong in all respects I'm afraid. 

There is not a single system in the world that works consistantly over time, it just doesn't exist. Although it is possible to beat the physical casino's with skill, through counting cards, but if they think you are doing that then you just get chucked out.

[Scuzzle]

^^^ You are right in that only card counting will beat the casino but we are not talking about a casino rather what is essentially a fruit machine and they can (and have been) beaten but all that ever happens is the next upgraded board or chip has the fix to that added in.

[shemyaza]

Better to be invested in the casino isn't it? Well done GVC by the way.

[jayboat]

Been doing this for years and has funded some nice coins in my stack. After you do the sign ups, use oddsmonkey.com premium service and arb the hell outta everything till they limit are close your account cause there are not any reloads anymore. If you do bets in £50 are £100 stakes and arb 1-3 horses each race, you can make alot extra by bypassing paying commission to betfair. When you arb 3 horses in 1 race and 1 selection wins, you would normally be a loser on betfair, but you have also won 2 lay bets from the other 2 selections and because you are overall loser, you dont pay commission making around £5 x2lay bets. £3000 plus bankroll and skrill required.

[vand]

On 18/12/2015 at 20:17, HighlandTiger said:

 

Not sure if I have missed the point really. Question was posed asking if anyone is out there beating the bookie, and I replied, you can't beat the bookie.

We are big enough gamblers as it is, ploughing money into pm's, but at least we have pieces of metal to show for our stupidity/genius. All you get for filling the bookies pockets is a sinking feeling and a waste bin full of betting slips.  

 

Been doing this for a few months now, and all I can say is that you CAN beat the bookies.

It's ALL about "taking value". If you don't know what that means, you haven't really grasped the concept of professional betting. Matched Betting is just an extension of this where you guarantee your profits by using hedging.

[Paul]

Well these are my offers for today to work through :

10 Bet £5 refund
138 £25 refund
188 Bet £25 refund
888 Sports free bets
Betfair Bingo bet £10 get £5 free
Betfair Sportsbook double odds
Betfair Sportsbook treble odds
Betfred Casino bet £10 get £10 free
Betfred bet £10 get £5 free
Boyle Casino 5 free spins
Boyle Sports £25 refunds
Bwin £25 FGS refund
Bwin £25 winnings boost
Comeon beat the goalkeeper
Coral bet and spin
Coral £10 risk free
Euro 2016 Price Boosts
Genting Bet score more win more
Ladbrokes bet £50 get £5 free
Ladbrokes shops £100 refund
Ladbrokes £75 refunds
Monday's horse racing offers
Net Bet £25 refund
Net bet £20 get £10 free
Paddy Power £5 free bets
Poker Stars £10 refund
Sky bet £25 get £5 free
Smart Live Gaming £20 refund
Stan James bet £10 get £5 free
Tony Bet £20 risk free
Unibet half time
William Hill shoot to score

 

Details of a few above

10 Bet £5 refund
Place a £10 bet on England to beat Slovakia tonight. If England claim victory you'll earn a £5 Free Bet.
A qualifying bet is a pre-match single bet placed on Full Time 1X2 on “England” to win the Game.
The Free Bet amount will be credited to your Customer account within 24 hours after the Game ends and only in the event that England wins.
The Free Bet amount is not stake-returned.
Strategy is place a £10 back & lay qualifier on England to win the game. If England do win, you will get a £5 free bet.
URL: http://www.10bet.co.uk/euro-2016-calendar/

188 Bet £25 refund
If Gareth Bale scores the FIRST goal during the Wales v Russia Euro 2016 Tournament group stage match on Monday 20th June 2016 20.00 GMT +1, we will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Halftime/Fulltime, Both Teams to Score and 1x2 bets, up to a maximum of €/£/$25. The refunded stake will be credited as a free bet.
Strategy is place a £25 back & lay qualifier in one of the markets listed above. If your qualifying bet loses and Bale scores first, you will get a £25 refund.
All Stake refunds will be subject to a one (1) time rollover at minimum odds of 1.90 on any sports pre match markets, before any withdrawals will be authorised. Bets on Horseracing/Casino/Poker/Bingo products do NOT count towards rollover.
To claim on the Promotion, the qualifying member must email the promotion code bale25, bet ID number and 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using their email address as registered with 188BET, by 23:59 (GMT+1) on 21st June 2016.
URL: https://doc.188contents.com/contents/templates/promotions/UK/201606/BALE25-0616.html?lang-en_ant

Boyle Sports £25 refunds
All losing bets refunded as a free bet if either side hit the crossbar.
Customers must Opt-In to receive this offer.
Applies to pre-match bets only.
Applies to all group matches at euro 2016.
Strategy is place a £25 back & lay qualifying bet. If your qualifier loses and either team hit the crossbar, you will get a £25 refund.
URL: http://www.boylesports.com/promotions/

Net bet £20 get £10 free
It's the final group game for England as they take on Slovakia in St Etienne.
It may be the last group game, but it's not the last Free Bet offer!
Place a £20 pre-match bet on the 'Number of Goals' market for the Slovakia vs England match and receive a £10 Free Bet!
Opt in.
Place a £20 single bet on the 'Number of Goals' market to receive a £10 Free Bet.
Your Free Bet will be available to use on any European Tournament match.
This is a non-return stake Free Bet.
Slovakia v England - Mon 20 Jun 8PM
URL: https://sport.netbet.co.uk/promotions/eng-slo-10fb/

[jayboat]

39 minutes ago, Paul said:

188 Bet £25 refund
If Gareth Bale scores the FIRST goal during the Wales v Russia Euro 2016 Tournament group stage match on Monday 20th June 2016 20.00 GMT +1, we will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Correct Score, Halftime/Fulltime, Both Teams to Score and 1x2 bets, up to a maximum of €/£/$25. The refunded stake will be credited as a free bet.
Strategy is place a £25 back & lay qualifier in one of the markets listed above. If your qualifying bet loses and Bale scores first, you will get a £25 refund.
All Stake refunds will be subject to a one (1) time rollover at minimum odds of 1.90 on any sports pre match markets, before any withdrawals will be authorised. Bets on Horseracing/Casino/Poker/Bingo products do NOT count towards rollover.
To claim on the Promotion, the qualifying member must email the promotion code bale25, bet ID number and 188BET member code to promo@188service.com using their email address as registered with 188BET, by 23:59 (GMT+1) on 21st June 2016.
URL: https://doc.188contents.com/contents/templates/promotions/UK/201606/BALE25-0616.html?lang-en_ant

 

 

Do your £25 back/lay bet, then lay Bale to score first to lock in that profit. It would be a lay bet of around £4.20ish glancing at the odds. 

I always lock in the profit

[sovereignsteve]

The trouble is, all these low value offers take a lot of work to wade through. I packed it in when I was reduced to these.

[HighlandTiger]

10 hours ago, vand said:

Been doing this for a few months now, and all I can say is that you CAN beat the bookies.

It's ALL about "taking value". If you don't know what that means, you haven't really grasped the concept of professional betting. Matched Betting is just an extension of this where you guarantee your profits by using hedging.

LOL, I love hearing of people who think they have the perfect system, be it computer programs, tips, hedging, arbing or scrabbling every few days opening new accounts, swapping credit cards etc to get a free £5 bet, where winnings are paid out as a free bet etc.

As an ex-bookie, I know more about the betting industry than most. I also know about the concept of "professional betting", and the 99.9% of "professional gamblers" who will eventually lose their money. The bookies just love people with your mind set. They tempt you just enough with their freebies and offers, and wait for you to over extend yourself, or make an error in your betting strategy, and they clean you out

Sorry you may think you can beat the bookie, but over the long term you will lose. 

 

[sovereignsteve]

6 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

LOL, I love hearing of people who think they have the perfect system, be it computer programs, tips, hedging, arbing or scrabbling every few days opening new accounts, swapping credit cards etc to get a free £5 bet, where winnings are paid out as a free bet etc.

As an ex-bookie, I know more about the betting industry than most. I also know about the concept of "professional betting", and the 99.9% of "professional gamblers" who will eventually lose their money. The bookies just love people with your mind set. They tempt you just enough with their freebies and offers, and wait for you to over extend yourself, or make an error in your betting strategy, and they clean you out

Sorry you may think you can beat the bookie, but over the long term you will lose. 

 

Sorry @HighlandTiger but you still haven't grasped the concept of "matched betting and bonus bagging".

You are not gambling here, simply taking bookies bonuses and free offers and matching off or arbing the bets you place.

Look at the overall movement of money.

You win one bet at one bookie and lose it at another (or Betfair). It is a zero sum, or near, result.

One bookie loses, another wins. You pick up the bonus.

Over the long run, if you make money doing this, then the betting industry as a whole must lose it. Simple arithmetic.

It must be so or the bookies wouldn't close your account or limit your bets when they suspect you of doing it. If, as you say, they are just tempting you for the long term kill, they would simply let you carry on and give you more rope to hang yourself!

You may be an ex-bookie and know a lot more about the inner workings of the betting industry than I do, but I did this for several years and made many thousands of pounds profit doing so. Money that used to belong to the bookies.

[vand]

Do you actually know how a sportsbook operates, why a single bookie will never offer evens on a coinflip, and what an overround is?

Please explain how can I lose if I cover all possible outcomes, none of which leave me with a loss? Or how I can lose if I get offered 5/4 on a coinflip?

All I can say is that I have made several hundred bets in the last 3 months and am pulling in a few hundred quid a month even without the usual free-bets and bonuses.

Yeah, I may bet limited one day and be unable to place the bets I want if the bookies work out what I am doing, but that is a different question. Meanwhile I'll leave the mug betting on the Grand National (150%+ overround) to the once-a-year mugs and instead go where the value is.

7 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

LOL, I love hearing of people who think they have the perfect system, be it computer programs, tips, hedging, arbing or scrabbling every few days opening new accounts, swapping credit cards etc to get a free £5 bet, where winnings are paid out as a free bet etc.

As an ex-bookie, I know more about the betting industry than most. I also know about the concept of "professional betting", and the 99.9% of "professional gamblers" who will eventually lose their money. The bookies just love people with your mind set. They tempt you just enough with their freebies and offers, and wait for you to over extend yourself, or make an error in your betting strategy, and they clean you out

Sorry you may think you can beat the bookie, but over the long term you will lose. 

 

 

[vand]

I've only been doing it for a part of this year, but from what I understand it is a little harder now as the bookies are a lot more wary, probably because of the rise of services such as "Profit Accumulator" which has affected the betting industry in a not insignificant way.  

In which case, all I can say is that.. last year must have been like shooting fish in a barrel, because despite the grumbles I sometimes hear from those who say "matched betting is dead" I'm finding it a very profitable venture thus far..

[HighlandTiger]

4 minutes ago, vand said:

Do you actually know how a sportsbook operates, why a single bookie will never offer evens on a coinflip, and what an overround is?

Please explain how can I lose if I cover all possible outcomes, none of which leave me with a loss?

All I can say is that I have made several hundred bets in the last 3 months and am pulling in a few hundred quid a month even without the usual free-bets and bonuses.

Yeah, I may bet limited one day and be unable to place the bets I want if the bookies work out what I am doing, but that is a different question. Meanwhile I'll leave the mug betting on the Grand National (150%+ overround) to the once-a-year mugs go where the value is.

 

 

pmsl, Like I said I USED TO BE A BOOKIE.

I've forgotten more about the gambling industry, book creation, odds and statistics, than you will ever learn. If you think you can make a nice living from the bookies, then feel free to try. You won't be the only one who thinks they can do it, you won't be the last. (hence the reason most bookies are rich).

I have put this challenge out to many people on here, and i have yet to have anyone come back to me saying they are in profit.

The challenge is for one year to log all your bets. In one column, you write down all the cash you put on at the bookies, online casinos, real casinos, National Lottery, scratchcards, bets with mates, FOBT's, Fruit machines etc etc etc. (no cheating, you write down EVERYTHING)

In the second column you put all the winnings you have had put back into your pocket or bank account that has not been spent on any form of gambling.

I can guarantee that 99.9% of people will discover they have lost money

I have had friends in the past, who have done this, even ones who think they are regularly winning, who have been surprised at the results.

 

Like I said, feel free to believe you have an edge over a bookie, (you havn't) but I guarantee in your lifetime, you will have lost more money than you have won.

 

Each to their own though......