Discussion Area for the CNY1m weekly review

shemyaza · May 22, 2016

In Preparation for this week's review I'll refer you all to Page 2 of my weekly review stats and the 7th item down or Pg02i07 in July 2015 which shows my Oil review to Ruble price action to show you that Oil Income in Rubles for Russia has remained very supported and stable in regards to Oil Price fluctuation which requires multi-lateral support to achieve by the Tri-lateral partners and has been maintained. Again those Tri-Lateral partners being the USA and China. Sadly for Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations this was not allowed by the Tri-Laterals and have thus suffered from Currency In-Elasticity around commodities which create deep issues economically. Hidden in plain view. Singapore has been on watch for sometime (I have said this many times in the past!) and the abundance of Super Tanker Oil storage parked there is now starting to show up generally which is directly affecting the Baltic Dry as storage costs are far lower than combined shipping & storage costs. Singapore historically has been close to both China and the USA and is the lubricant between the gears. As a counter to over production, over-supply parking off-market is the correct way to stabilise a supply rise shock. That Parked stock is an Economic weapon against OPEC only and has proven over-supply cannot succeed as a primary economic act to those countries in OPEC directly who are now facing shipping issues with unavailable means to export their means of revenue. Here's a link via the BBC from 2011 which you may have missed back then. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14486465

shemyaza · May 22, 2016

Week 23 marks its regular annual debut with a bad week in Paper and Physical Precious Metals so it didn’t do too well even though it won the cup, it’ll be moved on with Week 24 set to replace it next week but for now we delve into the 75.005^th CNY1m review. The CNY1m showed appreciation against the Dollar this week ‘+’ with paper precious metals generally declining ‘A’ we see this week’s Type stamp of A+. In Pound terms, the Pound Appreciated ‘+’ against the Dollar and paper PM’s again generally falling ‘A’ so again the Type stamp here is A+. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp A111- as all 3 physical precious metals saw falls ‘A’, ‘1’ and the CNY1m depreciated against the Pound ‘-‘. Spot volumes showed falls both Gold and Silver this week with Silver still leading in volumes. The Dollar Index rose strongly again by 0.694 to 95.270 which strengthens Paper Gold over Silver typically. PPM visibility is now being recognised. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw a rise of 1.373 to 75.798 in Gold’s favour. The Dollar FXCM rose by +29pips to 11961 only slightly strengthening when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate rose again seeing a rise of 2.067 ticks to 171.068 in favour of Gold strength over Silver however asset selling does throw out perceived Dollar strength. However marginal strength appears to be continuing. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio also rose again by 0.884 notches to 63.042 in Gold’s favour. EGI fell a whisker by -0.0006 to 5.5260 just towards consumers. ESI rose +0.4523 notches to 26.8949 towards retail sellers. The 5^th SGE week 23 ratios are; G to S 73.9933+, G to P 1.1542+ (P to G 0.8664-) and P to S 64.1053-. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 23; Gold to Brent fell to 25.6649, Gold to Palladium rose to 2.2477, Gold to Platinum rose to 1.2313, Palladium to Silver fell to 33.7228, Platinum to Silver rose to 61.5617 and Brent to Silver rose to 2.9534. Zinc and Copper fell, Copper fell more this week. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium fell back into Derivative equilibrium and remain unchanged meaning the 7PM this week changes to 034 (0up,3par,4down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.8551-, Au:Ir=2.4081-, Au:Ru=29.8140-. Paper Gold arbitraged with the Physical this week, SGE $1254.7294oz, Paper Silver is cheap this week SGE $16.96oz and Paper Platinum is very cheap this week as Shanghai values Physical Platinum at $1087.06oz a full $70oz more.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Crude Oil (Brent less than WTI due to PPM salvaging), Coal, Uranium, Aluminium and Cobalt. The fallers this week were Natural Gas, Copper (3^rd week in a row) and Zinc. Steel remained unchanged for the 11^th week in a row and enters T-11days in that Historical trend, which points at 31^st May.

Currencies: Brexit seems to be seriously weakening the Pound……erm No. The Pound was the strongest currency of the watch this week as it begins its move to the front of the Peloton. Brexit is a pure myth on the effect on the Pound and actually runs inverse if fear sidelining occurred a rise could over the weeks be seen as a move out of assets into the prime exit currency in a wait and see hold reducing the supply of £’s and raising it. 6 points for Sterling. Next strongest was the CNY1m depreciating only with the Pound so 5 points awarded. Next strongest was the Dollar now taking its turn Slipstreaming the CNY1m, 4 points to the Dollar. Into the weaker more competitive half we see the €uro showing signs of currency selling into Pounds to weaken out of 2^nd place overall, so 3 points to the €uro. The Yen and Ruble did battle for weakest and the Yen lost and so picked up 2 points whilst the Ruble returned into the Slipstream of all and regained competitiveness whilst being weakest and claims the final point. The currency strength league after 27 weeks of watching are as follows; 1^st Yen 102pts, 2^nd Dollar 98pts, 3^rd €uro 97pts, 4^th Ruble 94pts, 5^th CNY1m 93pts and 6^th Pound 83pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand fell in Bonds across the board with the exception of Japan (-0.1230%) which saw demand rise and thus a Bond price rise and a Yield fall. The Bond price (Yield rise) fallers were; USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.3134%), Holland, Hong Kong, China (2.991%), Singapore and India. Equity flight continues (Private flight not State intervention replacing it). Yield curve watching is important now.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A sudden rise was seen this week by $43.282bn to $312.871bn while the 10 week rolling total changed direction upwards by 2944 ticks to $2.88906 Trillion from $2.85962 Trillion by close. A continued reduction trend has abruptly stopped and reversed which slowly expands money, is something approaching?

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index recovered after 2 weeks of falls rising by 25pts to 625 while just hovering above market break-even, as storage fees with no transport costs appear to be equalising the index. Stock Markets were undecided this week however the heavy moves on the paper Gold and Silver weekly candles show private capital flight and PPM replacement. Highlight of the week was the Hong Kong, Hang Seng Index recovering by just over 3% this week. We move into interesting times.

With no Money Supply figures due until early June we wrap up this weeks 75.005^th CNY1m Review in seeing a quiet un-seen sell off which is raising the Dollar and pushing paper commodities down. CNY1m appreciation hides this by recreating the effect in Physical markets as an apprehension is developing. Oil storage is countering over-supply. Producers, whilst supplying at full economies of scale are not selling all that is produced but hoarding for future higher returns whilst Russian oil revenues in Rubles continue to power ahead as shown above showing equal purchasing power parity with other currencies over the last 7 months. Losing just -10% revenues compared to a near 50% fall in Dollar value for everybody else. Now if the Ruble was pushed to $1 = R30 then we’d see pain, however Norway has replicated Russia and so too has Britain. So now we wait and see what OPEC do. They are the sellers at bargain prices, whoever is willing to buy from them and find a way to transport the oil from them as storage has taken up most of the global energy transport fleet. It takes a lot of co-operation from Non-OPEC nations to break OPEC nations but it seems to be wreaking havoc on the OPEC aligned. The OPEC Non-aligned seem to be ready for the exit door back into the fold. So with that unusual angle, as always, we prepare the sandwiches, break open the Champers and say well done to Man Utd and the 7 teams representing us in Europe next season as we bid adieu to the week just gone and look forwards to whatever comes into sight in next week’s 76.006^th CNY1m Review.

shemyaza · May 28, 2016

The Plunge Protection Mechanism: 1) Dollars created out of thin air (reduces the Dollar Index with greater supply). 2) Gold paper created out of thin air to be bought by the created Dollars (raising the Dollar Index by reducing the supply of Dollars) 3) Gold paper falls at first and then rises as created Dollars sold into buying created Gold paper assets with the Dollar surplus buying excess un-created Gold paper available during private profit taking. 4) Created Dollars are now stored in Gold paper as a battery ready to Plunge Protect the Stock Markets by being buyer of last resort in the Futures e-mini's (US30 and S&P futures) and Paper crude for the amplification effect on Industrials. 5) The transition from battery out of paper gold flows through the ratio trade of Paper Silver into the Paper Future Equities and Paper Crude Oil markets. If the Gold battery effect begins to fail, Crude is directly sold via Paper Silver into the equity futures. The 5 second tickers will provide this to you on a daily basis. When Gold goes up and a prior fall occurs in the Dollar Index, that move is fake. It's how you use method that counts.

shemyaza · May 30, 2016

Week 24 debuts this year with another bad week in Paper and Physical Precious Metals so it’s been summarily sacked for its poor performance, however us ordinary consumers prefer it and so we begin the 76.006^th CNY1m review. The CNY1m showed depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ with paper precious metals generally declining ‘A’ so we see this week’s Type stamp of A-. In Pound terms, the Pound Appreciated ‘+’ against the Dollar and paper PM’s again generally declining ‘A’ so again the Type stamp here is A+. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp A111- as all 3 physical precious metals saw falls ‘A’, ‘1’ and the CNY1m depreciated against the Pound ‘-‘. Spot volumes this week showed falls for both Gold and Silver with Silver still leading in volumes but tightening towards Gold. The Dollar Index rose moderately by +0.430 to 95.700 which strengthens Paper Gold over Silver typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio however saw a fall of -0.983 to 74.816 in Silver’s favour this week. The Dollar FXCM rose by a tiny +14pips to 11975 only vaguely strengthening when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate fell moderately this week by -0.553 ticks to 170.516 in favour of Silver. Marginal strength appears to have reversed into decline for both the Dollar and Paper Gold ongoing. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio reversed and fell by -0.896 notches to 62.147 in Silver’s favour. EGI rose by +0.0869 to 5.6129 towards retailers. ESI rose +0.3614 notches to 27.2563 towards retail sellers. The 6^th SGE week 24 ratios are; G to S 73.2188-, G to P 1.1539- (P to G 0.8666+) and P to S 63.4544-. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 24; Gold to Brent fell to 24.2102, Gold to Palladium rose to 2.2657, Gold to Platinum rose to 1.2476, Palladium to Silver fell to 33.0205, Platinum to Silver fell strongly to 59.9667 and Brent to Silver rose to 3.0903. Zinc and Copper rose, Copper rose more this week. Iridium and Ruthenium fell back into Derivative equilibrium and remain unchanged but Rhodium fell $-10oz to $665oz meaning the 7PM this week changes to 025 (0up,2par,5down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.8236-, Au:Ir=2.3321-, Au:Ru=28.8736-. Paper Gold arbitraged below the Physical this week, SGE $1220.9934oz, Paper Silver is cheap this week SGE $16.68oz and Paper Platinum is very cheap this week as Shanghai values Physical Platinum at $1058.16oz a full $86oz more.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Crude Oil (Brent more than WTI), Coal, Natural Gas, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium. The fallers this week were Uranium and Cobalt. Steel remained unchanged for the 12^th week in a row and enters T-4days in that Historical trend, which points at 31^st May or tomorrow so we’ll see what happens on month end Tuesday.

Currencies: The Ruble re-asserted its seasonal strength influencing oil upwards with its own appreciation and last to first move and so was strongest this week claiming the 6 points on offer. Next strongest was the so-called Brexit weakened Pound which continues to strengthen through the cycle, 5 points awarded. Next strongest was the Dollar now taking its turn slipstreaming the Ruble, 4 points to the Dollar. Into the weaker more competitive half we see the Yen showing signs of unwanted strength and claiming 3 points in an already strong position so 3 points to the Yen. The CNY1m slipstreamed the Dollar in rotation and was still stronger than the €uro and so 2 points to the CNY1m. The €uro continues to show extreme fragility and claimed the weakest currency spot of the week however improving competitiveness and claims the final 1 point. The currency strength league after 28 weeks of watching are as follows; 1^st Yen 105pts, 2^nd Dollar 102pts, 3^rd Ruble 100pts, 4^th €uro 98pts, 5^th CNY1m 95pts and 6^th Pound 88pts. Do you see the momentum cycles yet?

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand rose mainly this for Bonds which saw Prices rise and Yields fall. The Bond price (Yield fall) risers were; Brazil, Mexico, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.3180%), Holland, China (2.972%), Singapore and India. The Bond price (Yield rise) fallers were: The USA, Japan (-0.1140%) and Hong Kong. Equity flight continues (Private flight not State intervention replacing it). Yield curve watching must be closely monitored now.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A slight fall was seen this week by $-1.148bn to $311.723bn while the 10 week rolling total continued momentum upwards by 2184 ticks to $2.91089 Trillion from $2.88906 Trillion by close. A continued reduction trend abruptly stopped the previous week and reversed into expansion which slowly expands money, is something approaching?

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index reversed course after last week’s rise falling by -19pts to 606 while just hovering above market break-even, as storage fees with no transport costs appear to be equalising the index at or around that level. Stock Markets were quietly positive this week however the heavy moves on the paper Gold and Silver weekly candles show private capital flight and PPM replacement in US Equity futures. Highlight of the week was the Hong Kong, Hang Seng Index recovering again by just over 3% this week. Are we at the top of the roller coaster?

With no Money Supply figures due until early June we wrap up this weeks 76.006^th CNY1m Review in seeing a quiet un-seen selling off raising the Dollar and pushing paper commodities down or is it something else? We wrap up this week’s review by seeing an un-remarkable apprehensive week heading into June and growing worries as the PM of Japan emphasised last week referring to a nearing potential Lehman event. Arsenal fans will remember it well that Barcelona Champions League Final, it might not happen though. Until then, throw on the Bo Knows How documentary, bring down the George Foreman sandwich grill from the attic and chill the Mint Bailey’s so we’re all good for next week’s 77.007^th CNY1m Review (Its lucky 777).

shemyaza · June 5, 2016

Week 25 descends upon us providing a good week in Paper Precious metals but yet another bad week in Physical Precious Metals for a mixed trend week as we begin the 77.007^th CNY1m review. The CNY1m showed appreciation against the Dollar this week ‘+’ with paper precious metals generally rising ‘B’ so we see this week’s Type stamp of B+. In Pound terms, the Pound depreciated ‘-’ against the Dollar and the Paper PM’s generally saw rises ‘B’ so the Type stamp here is B-. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp A111+ as all 3 physical precious metals saw falls ‘A’, ‘1’ and the CNY1m Appreciated against the Pound ‘+‘. Spot volumes this week showed falls for both Gold and Silver with Silver still leading in volumes but tightening towards Gold. The Dollar Index declined strongly by -1.827 to 93.873 which strengthens Paper Silver over Gold typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio however saw a rise of +1.012 to 75.828 in Gold’s favour this week. The Dollar FXCM declined by a firm -138pips to 11837 falling when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate fell firmly this week by -0.815 ticks to 169.701 in favour of Silver. Marginal strength appears to have reversed into decline for both the Dollar and Paper Gold ongoing. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio rose by +0.546 notches to 62.693 in Gold’s favour. EGI fell by -0.5623 to 5.0506 towards consumer. ESI fell fractionally by -0.0050 notches to 27.2513 towards consumers. The 7^th SGE week 25 ratios are; G to S 73.6195+, G to P 1.1811+ (P to G 0.8466-) and P to S 62.3290-. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 25; Gold to Brent rose to 24.9671, Gold to Palladium fell to 2.2533, Gold to Platinum rose to 1.2663, Palladium to Silver rose to 33.6527, Platinum to Silver fell to 59.8830 and Brent to Silver fell to 3.0371. Zinc and Copper rose, Zinc rose more this week. Iridium and Ruthenium fell back into Derivative equilibrium and remain unchanged but Rhodium fell $-5oz to $660oz meaning the 7PM this week changes to 421 (4up,2par,1down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.8850+, Au:Ir=2.3925+, Au:Ru=29.6217+. Paper Gold arbitraged above the Physical this week, SGE $1220.4240oz, Paper Silver is cheap this week SGE $16.58oz and Paper Platinum is very cheap this week as Shanghai values Physical Platinum at $1033.26oz a full but arbitraged $50.76oz more.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Coal (3^rd week in a row), Uranium, Natural Gas, Copper, Zinc and Cobalt. The fallers this week were Crude Oil (WTI fell more than Brent) and Aluminium. Steel remained unchanged for the 13^th week in a row and enters T+3days in that Historical trend, which points at 31^st May or last Tuesday as a turning point.

Currencies: The Yen came back in times of stress and re-claimed it’s unwanted spot as Number One strongest currency of the week claiming the 6 points on offer. Next strongest was the €uro which is showing the same unwanted stress buying due to NIRP policy, 5 points awarded. Next strongest was the Ruble now taking its turn lead in the Trilateral Peloton, 4 points to the Ruble. Into the weaker more competitive half we see the CNY1m slipstreaming the Ruble and claiming the 3 points. The Dollar is now taking its turn slipstreaming the CNY1m in rotation so 2 points to the Dollar. The Pound continues to show designed weakness has been explained from way back in August last year, to be precise since August 24^th 2015 and claims the most competitive but weakest currency spot of the week for the final 1 point. The currency strength league after 29 weeks of watching are as follows; 1^st Yen 111pts, Tied 2^nd Dollar and Ruble 104pts, 4^th €uro 103pts, 5^th CNY1m 98pts and 6^th Pound 89pts. Do you see it yet?

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand rose mainly this week for Bonds which saw Prices rise and Yields fall. The Bond price (Yield fall) risers were; The USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.4110%), Holland and Hong Kong. The Bond price (Yield rise) fallers were: The Japan (-0.0990%), China (3.035%), Singapore and India. Equity flight continues (Private flight not State intervention replacing it). Yield curve watching must be closely monitored.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A fall was seen this week by $-9.049bn to $302.674bn while the 10 week rolling total changed course downwards by -488 ticks to $2.90601 Trillion from $2.91089 Trillion by close. A possible reduction trend has possibly restarted, or a new level of stability at the expanded constant rate.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index reversed course again after last week’s fall by rising a flicker by +4pts to 610 while just hovering above market break-even, as storage fees with no transport costs appear to be equalising the index at or around that level. Stock Markets were quietly negative this week with exceptions of China, Hong Kong and a largely unseen inverse move in the American Russell 2000 Index seeing rises however the heavy moves on the paper Gold and Silver weekly candles show private capital flight and PPM replacement in US Equity futures is increasing. Highlight of the week was the China Composite Index rising by just over 4% this week. Are we at the top of the roller coaster starting the downwards descent?

With no Money Supply figures due until the week we wrap up this weeks 77.007^th CNY1m Review in seeing lucky 777 for Paper Precious Metals and the Dollar seemingly strong but weakening toward the end due to those very low jobs figures and that massive fall in the Labour Participation within the USA. We wrap up this week’s review by seeing a very apprehensive week ahead going into early June with growing worries as to the current ability of the world to avoid a decades long recession (Managed Value Correction MVC). Until next week, pick up a copy of Readers Digest (Have you won the Prize Draw yet?), mow that lawn you've been putting off this month and cool off with a Liquorice Ice Cream Sundae for next week’s 78.008^th CNY1m Review.

shemyaza · June 9, 2016

shemyaza · June 12, 2016

On the 15th June it will be the 20th anniversary of the IRA Trafford centre bombing injuring 212 people (15.6.96) just before the Euro 96 Tournament. Lest we forget, lets see if the Media forget.....

shemyaza · June 13, 2016

Week 26 is here and the first half of the year is over already and nearly all the Paper Precious Metals had a good week with Palladium and Rhodium the laggards as we begin the 78.008^th CNY1m review. The CNY1m showed Depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ with the paper precious metals generally rising ‘B’ with Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ rising however Palladium fell slightly ‘0’ so we see this week’s Type stamp of B1101-. In Pound terms, the Pound Depreciated ‘-’ against the Dollar and the Paper PM’s generally saw rises ‘B’ and follow the same pattern as above so the Type stamp here is B1101- as well. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp B111+ as all 3 physical precious metals saw rises ‘B’, ‘1’ and the CNY1m Appreciated against the Pound ‘+‘. Spot volumes this week showed falls for both Gold and Silver with Silver still leading in volumes. The Dollar Index rose by +0.785 to 94.658 which strengthens Paper Gold over Silver typically but last week’s cycle is in play. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio however saw a large fall of -2.330 to 73.498 in Silver’s favour this week. The Dollar FXCM rose slightly by +66pips to 11903 rising when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate fell alarmingly this week by -1.545 ticks to 168.156 in strong favour of Silver. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio fell by a large -1.775 notches to 60.918 in Silver’s favour. EGI fell by -0.3687 to 4.6819 towards consumer. ESI fell by -0.8589 notches to 26.3923 towards consumers. The 8^th SGE week 26 ratios are; G to S 73.3712-, G to P 1.1704- (P to G 0.8544+) and P to S 62.6903+. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 26; Gold to Brent rose to 25.2823, Gold to Palladium rose to 2.3500, Gold to Platinum rose to 1.2898, Palladium to Silver fell to 31.2752, Platinum to Silver fell to 56.9821 and Brent to Silver fell to 2.9071. Zinc rose firmly whilst Copper fell. Iridium and Ruthenium remain in unchanged Derivative equilibrium but Rhodium fell $-10oz to $650oz meaning the 7PM this week changes to 322 (3up,2par,2down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.9596+, Au:Ir=2.4495+, Au:Ru=30.3267+. Paper Gold arbitraged above the Physical this week, SGE $1251.5523oz, Paper Silver is expensive this week SGE $17.06oz and Paper Platinum is very cheap this week as Shanghai values Physical Platinum at $1069.36oz a full but arbitraged $81.86oz more.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Crude Oil (Brent rose more than WTI), Natural Gas (3^rd week in a row), Zinc (3^rd week in a row), Steel (US Tariff Rises snap a 13 week low of $100 rising to $225 beginning day T+6days), Aluminium and Cobalt. The fallers this week were Coal, Uranium and Copper.

Currencies: The Dollar (I have explained for many months the PPM, Zero hedge is coming around to the realisation that NO cartel exists, the Fed is both sides of the Paper Metal trade Up and Down) and so as the USD Supply reduction phase bit by Friday close we see the strengthening claiming the 6 points on offer (PS If I’m so wrong, why are both the Dollar and Paper Gold Up, please explain. Isn’t Gold the inverse of the Dollar? I have explained why and the 5 second tickers prove it every single day!). Next strongest was the Ruble which is taking its turn in the Tri-Lateral Peloton slipstreaming the Dollar, 5 points awarded. Next strongest was the Yen which as many currency traders might see is facing 5 angle pressure as Japanization of this "Precariat" state drives further into NIRP territory and closer to the Financial Abyss, 4 points to the Yen as it is kept firmly uncompetitive with Abenomics now being seen as a failure. Into the weaker more competitive half we see the CNY1m slipstreaming the Ruble and claiming the 3 points. The €uro is now facing future confidence issues as Japanization duplication enters the next phase with QE Corporate Bond purchasing which might be a sign of desperation as the tool box is now empty, 2 points to the €uro. The Pound continues to show designed weakness and has been explained from way back in August last year when falls were not metioned except here or to be precise since August 24^th 2015 and claims the most competitive (For exporters) but weakest currency spot of the week for the final point. The Pound is priced-in for Tariff trade readiness. The currency strength league after 30 weeks of watching is as follows; 1^st Yen 115pts, 2^nd Dollar 110pts, 3^rd Ruble 109pts, 4^th €uro 105pts, 5^th CNY1m 101pts and 6^th Pound 90pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand rose mainly this week for Bonds which saw Prices rise and Yields fall. The Bond price (Yield fall) risers were; The USA, Mexico, UK, Germany (0.0190%), Switzerland (-0.4540%), Holland, Japan (-0.1510%), Hong Kong, China (3.033%) and Singapore. The Bond price (Yield rise) fallers were Brazil and India. Yield curve watching must be closely monitored as inversion continues. Private equity is now increasingly looking for the exit doors replaced by state intervention into the vacuums created to maintain the managed decline.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A larger fall was seen this week by $-17.639bn to $285.035bn while the 10 week rolling total continued downwards by -8465 ticks to $2.82136 Trillion from $2.90601 Trillion by close. A reduction trend is in place currently.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index closed with no change =0pts to 610 while just hovering above market break-even, as storage fees with no transport costs appear to be equalising the index at or around that level (Copy and paste from last week, re-record don’t fade away, long term deflation signals are appearing). Stock Markets were quietly negative this week with exceptions of rises seen on The US Dow (The e-mini US30 futures are so useful), Russian Micex and HK Hang Seng. The PPM raises Gold and reduces Gold effectively and for those trading the paper metals think of it as the Feds jump start battery for the Dow and S&P500. There is no cartel, I don’t see one, I only see state intervention on a plain and simple model which is by law required for the protection of financial stability which after 2008 is sensible.

UK Money Supply: M0 Money Supply figures showed a slight contraction in M0 real inflation from 6.79811% to 6.52291% from June 2015 to May 2016. On a compounded monthly basis using the Month on Month rate of 0.47750% this equates to 100p being worth 94.4440p in 12 months or in M0 Inflation terms in 12 months, 105.883p is required to match the Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or a much reduced 5.882905%. M0 quietly contracted on a month by month basis. M1 Money Supply figures showed an expansion in M1 Real Inflation from 7.55445% to 8.12575% from May 2015 to April 2016. This time on a compounded basis using the Month on Month rate of 0.27493% this equates to 100p being worth 96.7590p in 12 months or in M1 Inflation terms 103.350p being required to match the Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or a much contracted inflation of 3.34951%. M1 quietly contracted on a month by month basis. Real Inflation fell in M0 terms and rose in M1 terms this month but both contracted sharply in month by month terms. Money Supply is showing massive tendencies for required near term controlling contraction in Money Supply which normally brings with it very deep negativity in the markets. As stated last month that was the case. With that we conclude the 78.008^th CNY1m review and look forward to the 79.009^th review, hopefully a little earlier next week due to a busy schedule but with the Football being on I might not get this out on the Sunday evenings as I wish. Remember this is my perspective, a very unique perspective and based on what the numbers are telling me. Enjoy the European Championships as I am and next week get the Pot Noodles out, prepare a Root Beer, don’t fight with the Russian hooligans and let’s gather back next weekend for another portion of this chronicle known as the CNY1m review.

shemyaza · June 16, 2016

Today the Federal Reserve worked hard creating Dollars out of thin air, buying Paper Gold created out of thin air and then selling Paper Gold into US30 Futures and S&P500 Futures whilst also utilising Paper Oil selling directly into Equity futures. If you can't see it, you are asleep!

Well Done England and Northern Ireland today.

shemyaza · June 16, 2016

shemyaza · June 19, 2016

Week 27 ushers in the second half of the review year and a split occurred in Paper Precious Metals with the upside being seen in Gold and Silver however the stronger downside was observed in Palladium and Platinum as we begin the 79.009^th CNY1m review. The CNY1m showed Depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ with the paper precious metals generally falling ‘A’ with Gold ‘0’, Silver ‘0’ rising whilst Palladium ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ saw larger falls so we see this week’s Type stamp of A0011-. In Pound terms, the Pound Appreciated ‘+’ against the Dollar and the Paper PM’s generally saw the same aggregate decline as above ‘A’ following the same pattern so the Type stamp here is A0011+. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp B110- as Gold ‘1’ and Silver ‘1’ rose more strongly ‘B’ versus declining Platinum ‘0’ with the CNY1m Depreciating against the Pound ‘-‘. Spot volumes this week showed rises for both Gold and Silver with Silver still leading in volumes. The Dollar Index fell by -0.515 to 94.143 which strengthens Paper Silver over Gold typically but last week’s cycle is in play. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio however saw a moderate rise of +0.775 to 74.273 in Gold’s favour this week. The Dollar FXCM fell slightly by -77pips to 11826 falling when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate rose slightly this week by +0.260 ticks to 168.416 in slight favour of Gold. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold. The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio rose moderately by +0.501 notches to 61.419 in Gold’s favour. EGI fell by -0.0832 ticks to 4.5987 towards the consumer. ESI fell by -0.1646 notches to 26.2277 towards the consumer. EGI/ESI values of 0.00 theoretically would represent Consumer only provided Supply to Retail which would indicate a ‘No-Supply’ market. The 9^th SGE week 27 ratios are; G to S 72.9786-, G to P 1.2291+ (P to G 0.8136-) and P to S 59.3780-. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 27; Gold to Brent 26.3085+, Gold to Palladium 2.4456+, Gold to Platinum 1.3461+, Palladium to Silver 30.3706-, Platinum to Silver 55.1784- and Brent to Silver 2.8232-. In observations since Week ending 9^th October 2015 (Week 43) when the Zinc to Copper (Zn:Cu) ratio stood at 758.3643 a slow decline in Copper and a slow rise in Zinc has been carefully watched closing this week at 967.9462 down from last week’s multi-year high of 1029.0127. This cycle is a beautiful cycle to learn from so please welcome the Zn:Cu Ratio as we saw Copper rise this week whilst Zinc fell. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium remain in unchanged Derivative equilibrium meaning the 7PM this week changes to 232 (2up,3par,2down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.9978+, Au:Ir=2.4973+, Au:Ru=30.9188+. Paper Gold is expensive compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1298.59oz vs SGE $1282.4423oz. Paper Silver is cheap compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $17.484oz vs SGE $17.573oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum this with Comex $964.740oz vs SGE $1043.442oz a full $78.702oz in difference.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Natural Gas (4^th week in a row), Copper, Steel, and Aluminium. The fallers of the week were Crude Oil (Brent Crude fell more than WTI Crude), Coal, Uranium (a fall of 8.52%), Zinc and Cobalt.

Currencies: The Yen was pushed further to the cliff edge easily appreciating above the rest and seeing competitiveness eroding into the abyss to claim the full 6 points on offer this week. Next strongest was the Ruble which is taking its turn in leading the Tri-Lateral Peloton from the Dollar and so 5 points are awarded. Next strongest was the Pound Sterling seeing a reversal along with all global markets of all types at 3.25pm on the 16^th June, 4 points claimed. Into the weaker more competitive half we see the €uro seeing the start of that Yen type push to the cliff edge and thus claiming the 3 points on offer. The Dollar appeared to have been printed strongly this week as the PPM cycle continues un-abated and positioned in the slipstream of the Ruble for this week in the Tri-Lateral Peloton, 2 points to the Dollar. The CNY1m again taking its turn in both Tri-Lateral slipstreams and improved competitiveness shadowing the Dollar claims the remaining 1 point. The currency strength league after 31 weeks of watching are as follows; 1^st Yen 121pts, 2^nd Ruble 114pts, 3^rd Dollar 112pts, 4^th €uro 108pts, 5^th CNY1m 102pts and 6^th Pound 94pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand rose mainly this week for Bonds which saw Prices rise and Yields fall (Closing at higher Yields after the 3.25pm point mentioned above). The Bond price risers (Yield fall) were; The USA, UK, Germany (0.0160%), Switzerland (-0.4940%), Hong Kong and China (2.966%). The Bond price fallers (Yield rise) were; Brazil, Mexico, Holland, Japan (-0.1470%), Singapore and India. Yield curve watching must be closely monitored as inversion continues. Private equity is now increasingly looking for the exit doors replaced by state intervention into the vacuums created to maintain the managed decline.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A smaller fall was seen this week by $-13.666bn to $271.369bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a slight rise by +286 ticks to $2.82422 Trillion from $2.82136 Trillion by close. A reduction trend is in place at the moment still.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index lost ground this week closing -23pts to 587 while now hovering at the market break-even as storage fees with no transport costs appear to be equalising the index at or around that level. Stock Markets were generally negative this week with both the Japanese Nikkei Dow and Topix indexes seeing corrections along with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index. The managed decline continues.

With no Money Supply figures due until next month we wrap up the 79.009^th CNY1m Review where Bond yields saw all-time lows reached midweek, Gold push through $1300oz and Oil seeing unusual paper crowding into it. So until next week we collect the car from its service, reach into the pond for that elusive goldfish and relax with a vimto and ice as we race towards next week’s 80.010^th CNY1m Review.

shemyaza · June 21, 2016

Occurring again at present, Gold Up and Dollar Up (Created Dollars buying Paper Gold, reducing supply of Dollars = $ Up and Gold rising through buying demand = Gold Up) Battery time again...1am, the PPM battery begins charging up

shemyaza · June 26, 2016

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/06/16/obama-administration-massively-revise-gdp-downward/

shemyaza · June 26, 2016

shemyaza · June 28, 2016

Week 28 goes down in history as week 28 as we turn the pages of the cookery book and collect together today’s ingredients for the CNY1m 80.010^th Review of this week’s recipe for disaster. Paper Precious Metals saw an near perfect rise in unison with just Ruthenium not joining in on the action but staying steady. The CNY1m showed Depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ with the four Paper Precious Metals (E-Mini Batteries) generally rising ‘B’ so we see this week’s Type stamp of B-. In Pound terms, the Pound Depreciated ‘-’ against the Dollar and the Paper PM’s generally saw the same rise as above ‘B’ following the same pattern as above so the Type stamp here is B-. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp B111+ as Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ rose strongly ‘B’ with the CNY1m Appreciating against the Pound ‘+‘. Spot volumes this week showed declines for both Gold and Silver with Silver seeing a reduced lead in volumes. The Dollar Index rose by +1.393 to 95.536 which strengthens Paper Gold over Silver typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio however saw a moderate fall (Notice the inversions) of -0.077 to 74.196 in Silvers favour this week. The Dollar FXCM rose slightly by +78pips to 11904 rising when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate rose strongly this week by +1.316 ticks to 169.732 in favour of Gold. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio fell strongly by -2.745 notches to 58.674 in Silvers favour. EGI rose by a strong +2.5266 ticks to 7.1253 towards the retailer. ESI rose by an enormous +7.7491 notches to 33.9768 towards the retailer. The 10^th SGE week 28 ratios are; G to S 73.6676+, G to P 1.2416+ (P to G 0.8054-) and P to S 59.3332-. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 28; Gold to Brent 27.1634+, Gold to Palladium 2.4088-, Gold to Platinum 1.3408-, Palladium to Silver 30.8018+, Platinum to Silver 55.3377- and Brent to Silver 2.7315. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio fell this week to 958.0966 from 967.9462. Iridium and Rhodium saw rises this week as Iridium finally began to move with Ruthenium remain in unchanged stasis meaning the 7PM this week changes to 610 (6up,1par,0down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=1.9627-, Au:Ir=2.4811-, Au:Ru=31.3090+. Paper Gold is cheap compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1314.98oz vs SGE $1317.977oz. Paper Silver is cheap compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $17.723oz vs SGE $17.891oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $980.750oz vs SGE $1061.521oz a full $81.229oz in difference.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Coal, Uranium (keep an eye on this), Natural Gas (5^th week in a row), Copper, Zinc and Aluminium (3^rd week in a row). The fallers of the week were Crude Oil (Brent falling more heavily than WTI) and Cobalt with Steel now back in stasis and no change territory.

Currencies: The Yen was pushed ever further to the edge of the cliff easily appreciating above the rest and seeing competitiveness eroding into the abyss to claim the full 6 points on offer this week once again. Next strongest was…. wait…. what is this…. a Tri-Lateral Tie for 2^nd place as all Three stood in the battle of the line through a Brexit shock seeing the CNY1m, Dollar and Ruble all holding strong together in teamwork harmony collecting the 12 total points shared collectively between them, 4 points awarded to each. Finally the battle of last and most competitive was lost by the €uro as it claimed the 5^th strongest currency of the watch week and the 2 points on offer. The Pound used the opportunity to Devalue under the guise of Brexit to push far into competitive territory and the weakest but lowest cost currency of the week and final point. The currency strength league after 32 weeks of watching are as follows; 1^st Yen 127pts, 2^nd Ruble 118pts, 3^rd Dollar 116pts, 4^th €uro 110pts, 5^th CNY1m 106pts and 6^th Pound 95pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand rose mainly this week for Bonds which saw Prices rise and Yields fall. The Bond price risers (Yield fallers) were; The USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, Germany (-0.0330%), Russia (8.6500%), Holland, Japan (-0.1800%), Hong Kong, China (2.950%), Singapore and India. The Bond price fallers (Yield riser) was Switzerland (-0.4830%). The Yield curves continue to invert. Private equity is now increasingly looking for the exit doors replaced by state intervention into the vacuums created to maintain the managed decline. A Bond exit would race into Commodities…..

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A large volatility supporting rise was seen this week by $63.701bn to $335.070bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a rise by +7653 ticks to $2.90075 Trillion from $2.82422 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off point for statistics). A reduction trend is stopped in its tracks and just a day before the Referendum as well. What were they expecting…..

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index regained lost ground this week closing +22pts to 609 while now hovering at the market break-even, as storage fees with no transport costs appear to be equalising the index at or around that level (Copy and paste from last week, re-record don’t fade away, long term deflation signals are still visible). Stock Markets were generally negative this week with both the Japanese Nikkei Dow and Topix indexes seeing further corrections (Strong Yen destroying the Economy). Completely lost on the media however The FTSE indexes were UP on the week along with the Russian Micex and Hang Seng Index. The Global Managed Decline Continues GMD. Battery physics were most intriguing this week.

With no Money Supply figures due until next month we wrap up the 80.010^th CNY1m Review where Brexit utterly shocked the markets, well, not the USD:NZD which saw the result before the Ballot boxes even arrived at the counts at 10.05pm. A remarkable guess or a beautifully designed domino. So until next week we wipe the chalk board, chew on a black jack and recline in the World of Leather twin suite but be careful with that Brandy. Next week we take on the 81.011^th CNY1m Review. Thanks for waiting, alot occurred this weekend, the Football was both great and disappointing where we saw our Players Brexit from the European Championship and Roy Hodgson resign after the shock result from the Icelandic Football Team. The EFTA has a proud nation in Iceland there. England’s players, finally, can grab their towels and enjoy the sun on the beach.

shemyaza · July 5, 2016

Week 29 showed why Terrahawks was right, always expect the unexpected. Last week’s recipe for disaster continued as Europe’s recipe for disaster as Bond Yields continued into Frankenstein Inversions but we cannot judge until the hard stats come in properly so until then we begin our observation of the CNY1m 81.011^thReview. The Paper Precious Metals saw a strong rise in unison with Rhodium the lone faller whilst Iridium & Ruthenium held steady. The CNY1m showed Depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ with the four Paper Precious Metals (E-Mini Batteries) generally rising ‘B’ so we see this week’s Type stamp of B-. In Pound terms, the Pound Depreciated ‘-’ against the Dollar and the Paper PM’s generally saw the same rise as above ‘B’ so the Type stamp here is B-. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp B111+ as Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ rose strongly ‘B’ with the CNY1m Appreciating against the Pound ‘+‘. Spot volumes this week showed rises for both Gold and Silver with Silver seeing a reduced lead in volumes. The Dollar Index rose by +0.100 to 95.636 which strengthens Paper Gold (+14m) over Silver (+8m) typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw an historic fall (Notice the inversions) of -6.275 to 67.921 massively in Silvers favour this week. The Dollar FXCM rose slightly by +66pips to 11970 rising when including the Australian Dollar prior to their General Election. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate fell massively this week by -6.275 ticks to 163.557 in favour of Silver. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio fell strongly by -2.685 notches to 55.989 hugely in Silvers favour. EGI fell by a modest -0.1430 ticks to 6.9823 towards the consumer. ESI fell by an enormous -5.9008 notches to 28.0760 towards the consumer. The 11^th SGE week 29 ratios are; G to S 68.7683-, G to P 1.2202- (P to G 0.8195+) and P to S 56.3580-. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 29; Gold to Brent 26.5003-, Gold to Palladium 2.2276-, Gold to Platinum 1.2715-, Palladium to Silver 30.4900-, Platinum to Silver 53.4196- and Brent to Silver 2.5630. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio rose this week to 972.0846 from 958.0966. Rhodium saw a fall this week as Iridium rejoined its ally Ruthenium in unchanged stasis meaning the 7PM this week changes to 421 (4up,2par,1down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=2.0642+, Au:Ir=2.5315+, Au:Ru=31.9455+. Paper Gold is expensive compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1341.71oz vs SGE $1333.467oz. Paper Silver is expensive compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $19.754oz vs SGE $19.391oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $1055.250oz vs SGE $1092.821oz a reduced $37.571oz in difference.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Crude Oil (Brent crude rising more strongly than WTI), Coal (+9.92%), Natural Gas (6^th week in a row +45.88% since 7 weeks ago), Copper (3^rd week in a row), Zinc, Aluminium (4^th week in a row) and Cobalt. The faller of the week was Uranium with Steel now back in stasis and no change territory.

Currencies: The Ruble continues its relentless Petro-Ruble rise as it’s run is completely ignored by the media and continues to push Oil higher to claim the full 6 points on offer this week. Next strongest was the €uro which unlike the Ruble does not have the same position claim, but duplicates Japan in Export difficulties to claim 5 points. Next strongest was the Dollar, second of the Tri-Laterals and slowly beginning it’s depreciation trend, 4 points awarded. Into the weakest half but most competitive area we first come to the Yen, trying desperately to devalue but unable to push consistently and so collects the next strongest 3 points. Finally the battle of last and most competitive was lost this week by the CNY1m as it claimed the 5^th strongest currency of the watch week and the 2 points on offer. The Pound used the opportunity to Devalue under the guise of Brexit to push far into competitive territory and the weakest but lowest cost trade currency of the week and the final point. The currency strength league after 33 weeks of watching are as follows; 1^st Yen 130pts, 2^nd Ruble 124pts, 3^rd Dollar 120pts, 4^th €uro 115pts, 5^th CNY1m 108pts and 6^th Pound 96pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand rose fully this week for Bonds which saw Prices rise and Yields fall across the board. The Bond price risers (Yield fallers) were; The USA 1.4560%, Brazil 12.2000%, Mexico 5.9200%, UK 0.8630%, Germany -0.1270%, Switzerland -0.5850%, Russia 8.2300%, Holland 0.0640%, Japan -0.2530%, Hong Kong 1.0480%, China 2.8510%, Singapore 1.8310% and India 7.4190%. No Bond price fallers (Yield risers) were observed this week. The Yield curves continue to invert. Private equity is now increasingly looking for the exit doors replaced by state intervention into the vacuums created to maintain the managed decline. A Bond exit would race into Commodities…..

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A large volatility supporting rise was seen this week by $68.657bn to $403.727bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a rise by +13522 ticks to $3.03597 Trillion from $2.90075 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off point for statistics). A support trend is now in place.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index further regained lost ground this week closing +68pts to 677 while hovering above the market break-even, as storage fees with no transport costs appear to be equalising the index at or around that level. Long term deflation signals are now in play. Stock Markets were across the board positive this week with both the FTSE100 and FTSE All-Share indexes seeing continued strong rises (Weak Pound pushing economic strength. Note the inverse effect of a strong Yen as seen in countless previous reviews). At the time of writing US Independence Day showed when the Battery is switched off, something else happens.

With no Money Supply figures due until next week we wrap up the 81.011^th CNY1m Review where Brexit has taught the un-decided Remain voters that they were lied too with scare tactics whilst the Italian Banks and Deutsche Bank show emergency assistance being propagated, not once but multiple times. Spain and Portugal this time running out of time with €urozone Budget Deficit overruns and expecting Bond Issuance restrictions as punishment sanctions preventing Budget deficit debt funding. Next week continues to unlock the door but until next week we break out the Welsh Flag, open the packet of Vimto fizzy bottles and prepare the Article 50 Family Board Game for Next week’s 82.012^th CNY1m Review. It’s a time consuming review but hopefully worth the wait. Good Luck to Wales on Wednesday.

shemyaza · July 9, 2016

I may have been overly optimistic about the Global Shipping BDI index, it's rising because the Bankruptcy rate is in contagion throughout the industry. Hanjin Conglomerate is trying to save itself as I type. Just to clarify, I watch 85 stocks very closely, BMS (UK Ticker), Braemar Shipping saw a new 3 year low in a rising stock market, when certain flags go up, you investigate the market involved. Some of the Maritime press are using words such as Catastrophe and Collapse for the industry which appears now to be upon it. The Banks are in no position to continue renegotiating the crippling debt burdens of the industry any longer. Ports would be the second casualty followed by the just-in-time method of inventory supply. Keep a close eye on this, I haven't had the time to look back at stocks closely and that just jumped out. South Korea's National Pension Fund has added a small bail-out tranche into the Failing Shipping Monster. Shares continued to fall after a small spike on Hanjin Conglomerate due to pay it's next large debt repayment installment. The Banks it owes, are also in Financial difficulty.

shemyaza · July 10, 2016

We enter Week 30 and the 82.012^th CNY1m Review with Bonds continuing their Inversion course, Stocks rising, commodities rising and also falling, reverse repo’s increasing liquidity support, the BDI hiding weaknesses and currencies arranging derivative positions as we step aboard and journey through this week’s review. The Paper Precious Metals saw a slowing rise in unison with Iridium, Rhodium & Ruthenium holding steady. The CNY1m showed Depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ with the four Paper Precious Metals (E-Mini Batteries) generally rising ‘B’ so we see this week’s Type stamp of B-. In Pound terms, the Pound Depreciated ‘-’ against the Dollar and the Paper PM’s generally saw the same rise as above ‘B’ so the Type stamp here is B-. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp B111+ as Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ rose strongly ‘B’ with the CNY1m Appreciating against the Pound ‘+‘. Spot volumes showed difference as falls for Gold were reflected by a new weekly All-Time record high volume in Silver seeing a massive overtake of Gold in volumes as battery usage is spread out. The Dollar Index rose by +0.642 to 96.278 which strengthens Paper Gold (-13m) over Silver (+32m) typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw another fall (Notice the inversions) of -0.547 to 67.374 strongly in Silvers favour this week. The Dollar FXCM rose slightly by +14pips to 11984 rising when including the weakened Australian Dollar due to the ongoing General Election counting. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate rose slightly this week by +0.095 ticks to 163.652 in favour of Gold. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio fell further by -0.492 notches to 55.497 again in Silvers favour. EGI fell by a modest -0.0562 ticks to 6.9260 towards the consumer. ESI rose moderately by +0.4193 notches to 28.4953 towards the retailer. The 12^th SGE week 30 ratios are; G to S 68.4670-, G to P 1.1765- (P to G 0.8500+) and P to S 58.1942+. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 30; Gold to Brent 29.3589+, Gold to Palladium 2.2213-, Gold to Platinum 1.2501-, Palladium to Silver 30.3314-, Platinum to Silver 53.8938+ and Brent to Silver 2.2948-. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio rose this week to 1009.3277 from 972.0846. Rhodium rejoined Iridium and Ruthenium in an unchanged stasis meaning the 7PM this week changes to 430 (4up,3par,0down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=2.1016+, Au:Ir=2.5775+, Au:Ru=32.5255+. Paper Gold is expensive compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1366.07oz vs SGE $1352.199oz. Paper Silver is expensive compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $20.276oz vs SGE $19.750oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $1092.750oz vs SGE $1149.316oz a widened $56.566oz in difference.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in, Coal (3^rd week in a row) and Cobalt. The fallers of the week were Crude Oil (Brent crude falling less than WTI), Natural Gas, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium with Uranium static for the week and Steel now back in stasis no change territory for the 3^rd week in a row.

Currencies: The Ruble and Yen battled it out, with the BoJ desperate to get the Yen into overall last place and unable too. In so doing the Yen beat the Ruble into the media fabled strongest currency position further eroding their economy bit by bit (see Nikkei Dow and Topix) and claiming the strongest watch currency of the week with the full 6 points on offer. Next strongest was the Ruble forming another Tri-Lateral peloton and claiming the 5 points on offer. Next strongest was the Dollar, second of the Tri-Laterals slip-streaming the Ruble and slowly beginning its depreciation trend with 4 points awarded. Into the weakest half but most competitive half we first come to the CNY1m third of the Tri-Laterals and slip-streaming the Dollar taking 3 points. Finally the battle of last and most competitive was lost this week by the €uro as it claimed the 5^th strongest currency of the watch week and the 2 points on offer and absolutely not wanting the Pound slip-streaming it for greater competitiveness and the last but most competitive final point. The currency strength league after 34 weeks of watching stands as; 1^st Yen 136pts, 2^nd Ruble 129pts, 3^rd Dollar 124pts, 4^th €uro 117pts, 5^th CNY1m 111pts and 6^th Pound 97pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand rose fully this week for Bonds which saw Prices rise and Yields fall across the board except Russia. The Bond price risers (Yield fallers) were; The USA 1.3580%, Brazil 12.1000%, Mexico 5.8600%, UK 0.7290%, Germany -0.1960%, Switzerland -0.6100%, Holland -0.0010%, Japan -0.2820%, Hong Kong 0.9130%, China 2.8250%, Singapore 1.7100% and India 7.3850%. The only Bond price faller (Yield riser) this week was Russia 8.4200%. The Yield curves continue to invert. Private equity is now increasingly looking for the stock market exit doors replaced by state intervention into the vacuums created to maintain the managed decline. A Bond exit would race into Commodities…..

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A reduced volatility support was seen this week falling $65.351bn to $338.376bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a rise by +7126 ticks to $3.10723 Trillion from $3.03597 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off for statistics). A support trend is now firmly in place.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index further regained lost ground this week closing +26pts to 703 while this at first appeared to be above the support level, market-wide debt restructuring attempts and growing bankruptcies through failed restructuring conclusions are leaving the break-even level at nearer the 1200 area with the BDI rising due to the market participation shrinking through corporate failure. Long term deflation signals are now in play. Stock Markets were mixed this week with both the Dow and Russell 2000 indexes showing perceived strength however the Nikkei and Topix show just how painful having a strong currency really is with a weaker currency providing proven economy improvement. When will the asleep learn! We enter the 3 week risk-off period.

With no Money Supply figures this week and due next week we wrap up the 82.012^th CNY1m Review where the global economy looked that little more fragile. France and Portugal made it to the Euros Final. The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. The PBoC could cut interest rates. The BoJ could introduce debt free ‘Helicopter Money’. Andy Murray won Wimbledon and Silver pushed through $20oz. Next week further turns the pages of this thriller as we recline in the comfy sofa, phone for a pizza and forget to pay the Avon lady as we rush head-long into next week’s 83.013^th CNY1m Review.

shemyaza · July 18, 2016

We enter Week 31 and the 83.013^th CNY1m Review with Bonds continuing their Inversion course as you’’ see so we’ll begin today’s journey through this week’s review. The Paper Precious Metals saw a decline this week whilst Palladium and Iridium decided to go against the trend. Rhodium and Ruthenium held steady. The CNY1m showed Depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ with Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ falling ‘A’ whilst Palladium rose ‘0’ so we see this week’s Type stamp of A1101- (Revised to B0010- Palladium pushing a weekly overall rise). In Pound terms, the Pound Appreciated ‘+’ against the Dollar and Paper PM’s generally fell as above ‘A’ with Palladium again rising so the Type stamp here is A1101+ (Revised to B0010+ Palladium pushing a weekly overall rise). The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp A011- as Gold ‘0’ fell whilst Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ rose strongly but couldn’t counter the overall downward basket value ‘A’ with the CNY1m Depreciating against the Pound ‘-‘. Spot volumes showed difference as a small rise for Gold was reflected by another new weekly All-Time record high volume in Silver seeing a massive lead over Gold in volumes as ‘Battery’ usage is exploited. The Dollar Index rose by +0.402 to 96.680 which strengthens Paper Gold (+9m) over Silver (+2m) typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw another large fall (Notice the inversions) of -1.143 to 66.230 strongly in Silvers favour this week. The Dollar FXCM rose slightly by +42pips to 12026 rising when including the weakened Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate fell moderately this week by -0.741 ticks to 162.910 in favour of Silver. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio fell further by -0.160 notches to 55.337 again in Silvers favour. EGI rose by a modest +0.0859 ticks to 7.0119 towards the retailer. ESI fell sharply by -2.0286 notches to 26.4668 towards the consumer. The 13^th SGE week 31 ratios are; G to S 65.5914-, G to P 1.1439- (P to G 0.8742+) and P to S 57.3393-. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 31; Gold to Brent 27.8712-, Gold to Palladium 2.0701-, Gold to Platinum 1.2319-, Palladium to Silver 31.9945+, Platinum to Silver 53.7616- and Brent to Silver 2.3763+. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio fell this week to 985.7737 from 1009.3277. Iridium rose this week whilst Rhodium and Ruthenium were in unchanged stasis meaning the 7PM for this week changes to 223 (2up,2par,3down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=2.0573-, Au:Ir=2.4764-, Au:Ru=31.8395-. Paper Gold is expensive compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1337.260oz vs SGE $1330.455oz. Paper Silver is cheap compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $20.191oz vs SGE $20.284oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $1085.500oz vs SGE $1163.069oz a widened $77.569oz in difference.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in, Crude Oil (Brent crude rising slightly better than WTI crude), Coal (4^th week in a row up +3.46%), Copper (up strongly), Zinc, Aluminium and Cobalt (3^rd week in a row, reaching 26,000 and seemingly bullish). The fallers of the week were Uranium and Natural Gas. Steel remains unchanged for the 4^th week in a row.

Currencies: The first to worst, worst to first rotation occurred this week with last week’s strongest Yen now weakest. Inversely last week’s weakest now strongest as the Pound recovered some unwanted strength. The Yen’s massive fall was a boost to the economy of Japan which as you can see further down did wonders for its stock markets. A weak currency means a strong economy and vice versa. The Pound this week claiming the full 6 points on offer. Next strongest was the Dollar taking its turn in the Peloton and providing Tri-Lateral slipstream lead claiming the 5 points on offer. Next strongest was a Tie between the CNY1m, The €uro and the Ruble. The CNY1m and Ruble in the slipstream of the Dollar. All three share the 9 points on offer and thus 3 points each. Finally no battle this week, Japan had to salvage itself and massively devalued its Yen to claim the last but most competitive 1 point on offer. The currency strength league after 35 weeks of watching stands as; 1^st Yen 137pts, 2^nd Ruble 132pts, 3^rd Dollar 129pts, 4^th €uro 120pts, 5^th CNY1m 114pts and 6^th Pound 103pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand fell generally this week for Bonds which saw Prices fall and Yields rise nearly across the board except Brazil and India. The Bond price risers (Yield fallers) were; Brazil 11.9900% & India 7.2720%. The Bond price fallers (Yield risers) this week were The USA 1.5580%, Mexico 6.0100%, UK 0.8350%, Germany 0.0030%, Switzerland -0.5420%, Russia 8.4400%, Holland 0.1190%, Japan -0.2260%, Hong Kong 1.0000%, China 2.8570% and Singapore 1.7340%. The Yield curves continue to invert still. Private equity is now increasingly looking for the stock market exit doors replaced by state intervention into the vacuums created to maintain the managed decline. A Bond exit would race into Commodities…..and perhaps….Currencies?

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A reduced volatility support was seen this week falling $38.900bn to $299.476bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a rise by +2268 ticks to $3.12991 Trillion from $3.10723 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off for statistics). A support trend is still in place as the 10 week rolling total continues to rise slowly.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index further regained lost ground this week closing +42pts to 745 while this at first appeared to be above the support level, market-wide debt restructuring attempts and growing bankruptcies through failed restructuring conclusions are leaving the break-even level at nearer the 1200 area with the BDI rising due to the market participation shrinking through corporate failure. Long term deflation signals are now in play. Stock Markets were strongly up this week with Japan’s Nikkei Dow and Topix showing big rises alongside the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index. Bonds will indicate what that rise really was next week as it was more likely a quick buy and sell algorithmic swing trade. Good for those who were in a losing position and now above water. Resistance will be seen though. Bonds did not sell into Stocks!

UK Money Supply: M0 Money Supply figures showed a slight contraction in M0 real inflation from 6.52291% to 6.38049% from July 2015 to June 2016. On a compounded monthly basis using the Month on Month rate of 0.29864% this equates to 100p being worth 96.4849p in 12 months or in M0 Inflation terms in 12 months, 103.643p is required to match the Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or a strongly contracted 3.643133%. M0 quietly contracted on a month by month basis. M1 Money Supply figures also showed a small contraction in M1 Real Inflation from 8.12575% to 8.08751% from June 2015 to May 2016. This time on a compounded basis using the Month on Month rate of 0.30773% this equates to 100p being worth 96.3801p in 12 months or in M1 Inflation terms 103.756p being required to match the Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or a slightly expanded inflation of 3.75591%. M1 quietly expanded on a month by month basis. Real Inflation fell in both M0 and M1 terms however in a month by month viewpoint, M0 contracted strongly whilst M1 expanded slightly. Money Supply is showing continued tendencies for required near term controlled contraction in Money Supply which normally brings with it negativity in the markets however M1’s slight expansion argues for a steadier market. With that we conclude the 83.013^th CNY1m review and look forward to the 84.014^th review as the sunshine was enjoyed I delayed this review to catch some rays. Until next week, enjoy the Lemonade, indulge with Rossi Ice Cream and never forget that Sun-Lotion as we try not to tan and burn into next week’s CNY1m Review.

shemyaza · July 27, 2016

It is the 32^nd Week of the 84.014^th CNY1m Review and a quiet week in many ways but the signals were clear as we start this week’s summary a little later than usual due to quite a busy weekend. The Paper Precious Metals saw a rise this week in total, how you may ask? Palladium grabbed the plaudits and overtook all losses by the other three paper PM’s and Iridium decided to go against the trend yet again, second week in a row by the way. Rhodium and Ruthenium again held steady. The CNY1m showed Appreciation against the Dollar this week ‘+’ with Gold ‘0’, Silver ‘0’ and Platinum ‘0’ falling ‘B’ whilst Palladium rose ‘1’ so we see this week’s Type stamp of B0010+ (Week 31 revised to B0010-). In Pound terms, the Pound Depreciated ‘-’ against the Dollar and Paper PM’s rose in the aggregate as above ‘B’ with Palladium again strongly rising so the Type stamp here is B0010-. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp A111+ as Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ fell ‘A’ with the CNY1m Appreciating against the Pound ‘+‘. Spot volumes showed difference as a fall in Gold volumes was complimented by a larger fall in Silver volumes. A G:S ratio of 32 is being hinted at. The Dollar Index rose by +0.666 to 97.346 which strengthens Paper Gold (-17m) over Silver (-25m) typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw a rise for a change of +1.182 to 67.413 in Golds favour this week, recovering last weeks decline. The Dollar FXCM rose slightly by +76pips to 12102 rising when including the weakened Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate rose strongly this week by +1.848 ticks to 164.759 in favour of Gold. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio rose this week by +1.950 notches to 57.288 again in Golds favour. EGI fell strongly by -0.6939 ticks to 6.3180 towards the consumer. ESI fell sharply again by -2.8417 notches to 23.6251 strongly towards the consumer and since Week 28 has fallen 10 points indicating stress in supply. The 14th SGE week 32 ratios are; G to S 66.9922+, G to P 1.1397- (P to G 0.8774+) and P to S 58.7809+. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 32; Gold to Brent 28.9265+, Gold to Palladium 1.9459-, Gold to Platinum 1.2277-, Palladium to Silver 34.6436+, Platinum to Silver 54.9098+ and Brent to Silver 2.3305-. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio rose this week to 1012.8394 from 985.7737. Iridium rose this week whilst Rhodium and Ruthenium were in unchanged stasis meaning the 7PM for this week stays at 223 (2up,2par,3down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=2.0342-, Au:Ir=2.4041-, Au:Ru=31.4817-. Paper Gold is cheap compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1322.230oz vs SGE $1329.371oz. Paper Silver is cheap compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $19.614oz vs SGE $19.844oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $1077.000oz vs SGE $1166.428oz a widened $89.428oz in difference.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in just Natural Gas and Zinc. The fallers of the week were Crude Oil (Brent crude falling slightly more than WTI crude), Coal, Uranium, Aluminium and Cobalt. Copper amazingly joined Steel in holding steady this week. Steel now remains unchanged for the 5^th week in a row.

Currencies: The CNY1m took centre stage this week as this week’s strongest currency providing its lead turn in the Tri-Lateral Peloton and claiming the full 6 points. Next strongest was the Dollar tucking in behind the CNY1m slipstream and claiming the 5 points on offer. Next strongest was the €uro as it struggles to lose the weight of strength and un-competitiveness and claiming the 4 points on offer. Into the more competitive, so-called weaker half and next we see the Pound pegging nicely just behind the €uro and building the competitive gap against the EU and claiming 3 points. The battle for weakest but most competitive was lost by the Ruble but comfortably took its turn in the Tri-Lateral rotation in the slipstream taking 2 points. Finally the Yen again trying desperately to devalue won the weakest but most competitive battle claiming the remaining 1 point on offer. The currency strength league after 36 weeks of watching stands as; 1^st Yen 138pts, Tied 2^nd Ruble 134pts and Dollar 134pts, 4^th €uro 124pts, 5^th CNY1m 120pts and 6^th Pound 106pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Demand in a mixed market generally fell this week for Bonds which saw Bond Prices Fall and Yields Rise in the USA 1.5660%, Switzerland -0.5050%, Russia 8.6400%, Japan -0.2220% Hong Kong 0.0930% and Singapore 1.8020%. The Bond Price Risers (Yield Fallers) were Brazil 11.9700%, Mexico 5.9400%, UK 0.7950%, Germany -0.0230%, China 2.8030% and India 7.2510%. The Yield curves still continue to invert. Private equity is now increasingly looking for the stock market exit doors replaced by state intervention into the vacuums created to maintain the managed decline. A Bond exit would race into Commodities…..and perhaps….currencies?

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): A jump was seen this week as Reverse Repo’s rose by $28.840bn to $328.316bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a rise by +5873 ticks to $3.18864 Trillion from $3.12991 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off for statistics). A support trend is still in place as the 10 week rolling total continues to rise slowly.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index lost ground this week closing -27pts to 718 while this at first appeared to be above the support level, market-wide debt restructuring attempts and growing bankruptcies through failed restructuring conclusions are leaving the break-even level at nearer the 1200 area with the BDI rising due to the market participation shrinking through corporate failure. Long term deflation signals are now in play. Stock Markets were cautiously up this week with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index strongest of the watch. Bonds showed the indication anticipated as yields slowly started lifting at the wrong end, the short term end. Bonds did not sell into Stocks once again!

With no Money Supply figures this week we close this week’s 84.014^th CNY1m Review where Japan finally gave the go-ahead for its TOCOM exchange to trade Physical Precious Metals for delivery, but in general a quiet week apart from that bombshell. Next week we prepare, goggles ready, freshly delivered turnips at hand and a rented VHS copy of Moonraker to pass the time as we cruise gently into next week’s 85.015^th CNY1m Review.

shemyaza · July 31, 2016

Just to make a clear and concise point here, Private Money is exiting all the stock markets, not investing, EXITING. If Central Banks want to create an illusion of Entering the market, try harder, it's easy to see who is leaving and who is entering. Try harder next time.

shemyaza · August 3, 2016

It is the 33^rd Week of the 85.015^th CNY1m Review and mixed week was seen this week. The Paper Precious Metals saw a rise this week with all four PM’s rising ‘B’ comfortably. The CNY1m showed depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ and so the easy Type stamp of B- is recorded. In Pound terms, the Pound Appreciated ‘+’ against the Dollar and Paper PM’s rose across the board ‘B’ so the Type stamp here is B+. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp B111- as Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ rose ‘B’ with the CNY1m depreciating against the Pound ‘-‘. Spot volumes showed inversion as a fall in Gold volumes was complimented by a rise in Silver volumes. The Dollar Index fell by -1.829 to 95.517 which weakens Paper Gold (-1.5m) over Silver (+1.5m) typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw a fall of -0.962 to 66.450 in Silvers favour this week, recovering most of last week’s lost ground. The Dollar FXCM fell firmly by -166pips to 11936 when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate fell sharply by -2.791 ticks to 161.967 in favour of Silver. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio fell this week by -0.429 notches to 56.859 again in Silvers favour. EGI rose by +0.0983 ticks to 6.4163 towards the retailer. ESI fell by -0.4829 notches to 23.1421 towards the consumer and since Week 28 has fallen nearly 11 points from 33.9768 indicating supply contraction occurring. The 15th SGE week 33 ratios are; G to S 65.6723-, G to P 1.1104- (P to G 0.9005+) and P to S 59.1404+ (Platinum is catching up with Gold). The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 33; Gold to Brent 31.1789+, Gold to Palladium 1.9037-, Gold to Platinum 1.1817-, Palladium to Silver 34.9060+, Platinum to Silver 56.2334+ and Brent to Silver 2.1313-. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio fell this week to 1008.8408 from 1012.8394. Iridium rose again this week whilst Rhodium fell and Ruthenium remained in unchanged stasis meaning the 7PM for this week is 511 (5up,1par,1down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=2.1104+, Au:Ir=2.4119+, Au:Ru=32.1588+. Paper Gold is Expensive (Note the Arbitrage effects rotating weekly) compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1350.670oz vs SGE $1334.0610oz. Paper Silver is Expensive compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $20.326oz vs SGE $20.314oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $1143.000oz vs SGE $1201.374oz a shortened $58.374oz difference and Platinum now showing its historical strength.

General Commodities: This week's Rises were Coal, Uranium, Natural Gas, Aluminium and Cobalt (Showing a strengthening pendulum). The Fallers of the week were Crude Oil, Copper and Zinc. Steel now remains unchanged for a 6^th week in a row.

Currencies: The Japanese Yen took the very unwanted 1^st place in the strength week and claimed the full 6 points. Next strongest was the €uro which alongside the Yen was pushed back out into the un-competitive storm for 5 points. Next strongest was the Pound, pegging in a tucked in position behind the €uro making the Pound more competitive for 4 points. Into the more competitive, so-called weaker half, we see the Tri-Laterals arranging themselves in an orderly fashion with the Dollar leading the Peloton with 3 points. The battle for weakest but most competitive currency for the week was lost by the CNY1m tucking in behind the Dollar for 2 points with a recently strength trending Ruble tucked into the Tri-Lateral slipstream and claiming the weakest but most competitive 1 point. The currency strength league after 37 weeks of watching stands as follows; 1^st Yen 144pts, 2^nd Dollar 137pts, 3^rd Ruble 135pts, 4^th €uro 129pts, 5^th CNY1m 122pts and 6^th Pound 110pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Bond Demand Rose pushing Prices Up and Yields Down in the following; USA 1.4500%, Brazil 11.8300%, UK 0.6850%, Germany -0.1220%, Switzerland -0.5620%, Russia 8.4100%, Holland -0.0220%, Hong Kong 0.9370% and India 7.2510%. Bond Demand Fell pushing Prices Down and Yields Up in the following; Japan -0.1820%, China 2.8050% and Singapore 1.8070%. Mexico remained unchanged at 5.9400%. Bonds are Inverted.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): This week we saw a fall of -$19.290bn to $309.026bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a fall of -385 ticks to $3.18479 Trillion from $3.18864 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off for statistics). A support trend is still in place despite the small fall as the 10 week rolling total continues to rise as stress builds.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index fell by -62pts to 656. Global shipping is in deep trouble. Stock Markets were demonstrating the cascade trade from Narrow to Wide indexes this week (see Dow/Russell FTSE100/FTSE All-Share) as stock trading rotates into wider indexes. The Russian Micex led this week ahead of the Russell and FTSE All-Share indexes. The Smart money is leaving the stock market and has been for many weeks as PPM’s cover the hole.

With no Money Supply figures this week we close the 85.015^th CNY1m Review and look ahead to choppier waters where I have to repeat that more and more market watchers are now realising tops have occurred everywhere in stock markets and the Plunge Protection Mechanism as I described in previous weeks is as real as your nose. Under median stocks will see higher demand over the coming weeks and there are nuggets everywhere. In next episode see an effect from the Bank of England Rate decision. Until then we'll listen to Lalo Schifrin’s greatest hits, enjoy a glass of cherry cola and pass the fruit pastels in a clock-wise but orderly manner approaching the soon to arrive 86.016^th CNY1m Review.

shemyaza · August 7, 2016

Well….UK Money Supply took off like a rocket into space as we enter the 34^th Week of the 86.016^th CNY1m Review and again massive monetary expansion had its inevitable effect. The Paper Precious Metals saw a fall this week with all four PM’s falling ‘A’ in Dollar terms. The CNY1m showed depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ and so the easy Type stamp of A- is recorded. In Pound terms however a different story as the Pound Depreciated ‘-’ against the Dollar and Paper PM’s rose in total ‘B’ with risers in Gold ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ overwhelming the declines in Silver ‘0’ and Palladium ‘0’ so the Type stamp here is B1001-. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp B111+ as Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ rose ‘B’ with the CNY1m Appreciating against the Pound ‘+‘. Spot volumes showed Decreases as a fall in Gold volumes was complimented by a larger fall in Silver volumes. The Dollar Index rose by +0.722 to 96.239 which weakens Paper Silver (-6.1m) over paper Gold (-2.7m) typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw a rise of +1.319 to 67.769 in Golds favour this week, recovering all of last week’s lost ground. The Dollar FXCM rose slightly by +32pips to 11968 when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate rose sharply (Arbitrage with SGE) by +2.041 ticks to 164.008 in favour of Gold. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio rose this week by +0.913 notches to 57.772 again in Golds favour. EGI fell by -0.0752 ticks to 6.3412 towards the Consumer. ESI rose by +0.3196 notches to 23.4617 towards the retailer and since Week 28 has fallen nearly 10.5 points from 33.9768 indicating supply contraction occurring. The 16th SGE week 34 ratios are; G to S 66.1401+, G to P 1.1131+ (P to G 0.8984-) and P to S 59.4220+ (Platinum is catching up with Gold). The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 34; Gold to Brent 30.0651-, Gold to Palladium 1.9253+, Gold to Platinum 1.1704-, Palladium to Silver 35.1995+, Platinum to Silver 57.9002+ and Brent to Silver 2.2541+. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio rose this week to 1052.8022 from 1008.8408. Iridium rose again this week whilst Rhodium fell and Ruthenium remained in unchanged stasis meaning the 7PM for this week is 115 (1up,1par,5down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=2.1363+, Au:Ir=2.3221-, Au:Ru=31.7902-. Paper Gold is Cheap (Note the Arbitrage effects rotating weekly) compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1335.190oz vs SGE $1359.340oz. Paper Silver is Cheap compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $19.702oz vs SGE $20.552oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $1140.750oz vs SGE $1221.268oz a widened $80.518oz difference and Platinum now showing its historical strength and saw another pivot, Down in Dollar terms but Inversely Up in CNY1m terms.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Crude Oil, Coal, Uranium, Zinc, Aluminium and Cobalt (Showing a strengthening pendulum). The fallers of the week were Natural Gas and Copper. Steel now remains unchanged for the 7^th week in a row.

Currencies: The Ruble went from weakest to strongest to take the full 6 points for the week. Next strongest was the Yen which found itself again being pushed out further into un-competitive territory (reflected in the Nikkei and Topix) for 5 points. Next strongest was the Dollar tucking into the slipstream of this week’s Tri-Lateral Peloton leader, the Ruble to take 4 points. Into the more competitive, so-called weaker half and we see the Tri-Laterals arranging themselves in an orderly fashion with the CNY1m tucking in behind the Dollar in the Tri-Lateral Peloton with 3 points. The battle for weakest but most competitive currency of the week was lost by the €uro trying to be more competitive than the Pound and unable too so 2 points awarded with the remaining most competitive but weakest position taken by the Pound and edging the €uro for the remaining 1 point. The currency strength league after 38 weeks of watching stands as follows; 1^st Yen 149pts, Tied 2^nd Dollar 141pts and Ruble 141pts, 4^th €uro 131pts, 5^th CNY1m 125pts and 6^th Pound 111pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Bond Demand Rose pushing Prices Up and Yields Down in the following; Brazil 11.8200%, UK 0.6730%, Hong Kong 0.9250% and China 2.7820%. Bond Demand Fell pushing Prices Down and Yields Up in the following; USA 1.5900%, Mexico 6.0200%, Germany -0.0600%, Switzerland -0.5470%, Russia 8.4500%, Holland 0.0350%, Japan -0.0920%, Singapore 1.8110% and India 7.1680%. Bonds are Inverted.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): This week we saw a rise of +$2.228bn to $311.254bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a fall of just -47 ticks to $3.18432 Trillion from $3.18479 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off for statistics). A support trend is still in place as the 10 week rolling total continues to rise as stress builds.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index fell by -20pts to 636. Global shipping is in deep trouble. Stock Markets were Up in Wall Street, London (massive money supply injections throughout the month) and Hong Kong. Stocks were Down slightly in China and Russia whilst Japanese Yen strength continues to inflict pain on profitability in Tokyo as shown by the Nikkei Dow and Topix indexes falling the most this week. The Smart money is leaving the stock market and has been for many weeks as PPM’s fill the hole left.

UK Money Supply: M0 Money Supply figures showed a massive expansion in M0 real inflation from 6.38049% to 7.19180% from August 2015 to July 2016. On a compounded monthly basis using the Month on Month rate of 1.45511% this equates to 100p being worth 84.0839p in 12 months or in M0 Inflation terms in 12 months, 118.929p is required to match the Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or a strongly expanded 18.92882% which is enormous. M0 massively expanded on a month by month basis. M1 Money Supply figures showed a Galactic expansion in M1 Real Inflation from 8.08751% to 10.31261%* from July 2015 to June 2016. This time on a compounded basis using the Month on Month rate of 3.59515%* this equates to 100p being worth a shocking 65.4526p in 12 months or in M1 Inflation terms 152.782p being required to match the Purchasing Power Parity to equal 100p 12 months earlier or a Galactically expanded inflation of 52.78231%*. M1 was Shockingly hugely expanded on a month by month basis. Real Inflation rose sharply in both M0 and M1 terms however in a month by month viewpoint, M0 expanded very sharply whilst M1 saw an expansion explosion. Money Supply is showing massive expansionary tendencies which will keep the Pound competitive and on a weakening trend. With that we conclude the 86.016^th CNY1m review and look forward to the 87.017^th review as the Olympics continues and we saw UK Money Supply explode and Platinum on its un-heralded or un-discussed rise upwards. Until next week, grab the Black Jacks, unwrap an Ice lolly and iron those chino’s as we rush head-long into next week’s CNY1m Review.

shemyaza · August 17, 2016

It’s the 35^th Week of the 87.017^th CNY1m Review and quietness has ensued with a quiet week as we plunge into the week’s stats. The Paper Precious Metals saw a fall this week with three of four PM’s falling ‘A’ in Dollar terms, Gold rising slightly ‘0’ and Silver ‘1’, Palladium ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’’ falling. The CNY1m showed Appreciation against the Dollar this week ‘+’ and so the Type stamp of A0111+ is recorded. In Pound terms however a different story as the Pound Depreciated ‘-’ against the Dollar and Paper PM’s rose in total ‘B’ with risers in Gold ‘1’ and Silver ‘1’ whilst Palladium ‘0’ and Platinum ‘0’ fell but not enough to pull down the rises in Gold and Silver so the Type stamp here is B1100-. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp A111+ as Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ all fell ‘A’ with the CNY1m Appreciating against the Pound ‘+‘. Spot volumes showed Decreases as a fall in Gold volumes was complimented by a similar fall in Silver volumes. The Dollar Index fell by -0.556 to 95.683 which weakens Paper Gold (-1.5m) over Paper Silver (-1.9m) typically. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw a rise of +0.089 to 67.859 in Golds favour this week. The Dollar FXCM rose slightly by -6pips to 11962 when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate fell modestly (Arbitrage with SGE) by -0.467 ticks to 163.542 in favour of Silver. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio rose this week by +0.202 notches to 57.974 in Golds favour. EGI rose by +0.0860 ticks to 6.4271 towards the Retailer. ESI fell by -0.5259 notches to 22.9358 towards the consumer. The 17th SGE week 35 ratios are; Gold to Silver 66.0120-, Gold to Platinum 1.1063- [Platinum to Gold 0.9039+] (Platinum is catching up with Gold) and Platinum to Silver 59.6684+. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 35; Gold to Brent 28.3306-, Gold to Palladium 1.9547+, Gold to Platinum 1.1961+, Palladium to Silver 34.7148-, Platinum to Silver 56.7322- and Brent to Silver 2.3952+. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio fell this week to 1051.1776 from 1052.8022. Iridium rose again this week as did Rhodium with Ruthenium remaining unchanged meaning the 7PM for this week is 313 (3up,1par,3down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=2.1040-, Au:Ir=2.2839-, Au:Ru=31.8112+. Paper Gold is Cheap compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1336.070oz vs SGE $1342.931oz. Paper Silver is Cheap compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $19.689oz vs SGE $20.344oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $1117.000oz vs SGE $1213.880oz a widened $96.880oz difference. A Gold Pivot was observed this week up in Dollar terms but down in CNY1m terms.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Crude Oil, Coal (3^rd week) and Aluminium (3^rd week). The fallers of the week were Uranium, Natural Gas, Copper (3^rd week) and Zinc. Cobalt and Steel (8^th week) remained unchanged.

Currencies: The €uro was left out in the storm this week and finished strongest but least competitive to take the full 6 points. Next strongest was the Ruble which found itself leading the Tri-Lateral Peloton again for 5 points. Next strongest was the CNY1m tucking in behind its Tri-Lateral partner and claiming a more competitive 4 points. Into the more competitive, so-called weaker half and we see the Yen not quite able to weaken itself and claim 3 points. The battle for weakest but most competitive currency of the week was lost by the Dollar trying to be more competitive than the Pound and unable too so 2 points awarded but rotating in the Tri-Lateral Peloton nicely behind its partners with the remaining most competitive but weakest position taken by the Pound again taking a most competitive 1 point. The currency strength league after 39 weeks of watching stands as follows; 1^st Yen 152pts, 2^nd Ruble 146pts, 3^rd Dollar 143pts, 4^th €uro 137pts, 5^th CNY1m 129pts and 6^th Pound 112pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Bond Demand Rose pushing Prices Up and Yields Down in the following; USA 1.5100%, Mexico 5.8500%, UK 0.5290%, Germany -0.0960%, Switzerland -0.5550%, Russia 8.3800%, Holland 0.0030%, Japan -0.1030%, China 2.7050%, Singapore 1.7570% and India 7.1030%. Bond Demand Fell pushing Prices Down and Yields Up in the following; Brazil 11.9000% and Hong Kong 0.9330%. Bonds are inverted.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): This week we saw a rise of +$9.817bn to $321.071bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a rise of +1840 ticks to $3.20272 from $3.18432 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off for statistics). A support trend is still in place as the 10 week rolling total continues to rise as stress builds.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index rose by +35pts to 671. Global shipping is in deep trouble. Stock Markets were up across the watch however a crucial crack occurred in the illusion with the Dow and Russell2000 indexes showing diversion with the Russell2000 Index the only Index which was down on the week. The Smart money is leaving the stock market and has been for many months now as PPM’s fill the hole left by selling.

With that we observe the closing ceremony of the 87.017^th CNY1m Review as Money Supply figures come out next month. Looking ahead to next week’s 88.018^th CNY1m review we’ll hopefully have a little more intrigue while we curiously saw a Gold pivot and a Dow/Russell2k divergence this week. Just in case you’re wondering the 520 week moving averages are showing a very slight but consistent rise in the long term Gold to Silver ratio. From 7 weeks ago to now that long term ratio has changed through 58.2337, 58.2530, 58.2706, 58.2946, 58.3137 and 58.3418 to this week’s 58.3691. When a drop occurs in the metals it tends to find resistance at the 520 week level. Thanks for reading and apologies for the delay this week but the Olympics has been fun to watch.

shemyaza · August 22, 2016

It’s the 36^th Week of the 88.018^th CNY1m Review and something is up with stocks subdued and Bonds also subdued with an air of apprehension as we dive like Tom Daley straight into the green pool of this week’s stats. The Paper Precious Metals saw a rise this week with two of four PM’s rising ‘B’ in Dollar terms, Gold rising ‘1’ and Palladium ‘1’. Meanwhile Silver ‘0’ and Platinum ‘0’’ fell but less so. The CNY1m showed Depreciation against the Dollar this week ‘-’ and so the Type stamp of B1010- is recorded. In Pound terms however a different story as the Pound Appreciated ‘+’ against the Dollar and Paper PM’s fell in total ‘A with Gold ‘1’, Silver ‘1’ and Platinum '1' falling whilst Palladium ‘0’ couldn’t rise enough to cover the fall so the Type stamp here is A1101+. The SGE valuations showed the Type stamp A011- as Gold ‘0’ was the lone riser against falling Silver ‘1’ and Platinum ‘1’ which pulled the aggregate down this week ‘A’ with the CNY1m Depreciating against the Pound ‘-‘. Spot volumes showed Increases as a rise in Gold volumes was complimented by a 2x larger rise in Silver volumes. The Dollar Index fell by -1.182 to 94.501 (How strange, the narrative says that when the Dollar falls Gold rises, here it should be strongly, how odd PPM, a mistake perhaps, yet another one perhaps…notice Gold recovered nearly all its prior losses with a 1.7+ fall in the Dollar index. Heavy Dollar printing and Paper Gold selling to prop up the Dow and S&P e-mini’s) which weakens Paper Gold (+4.8m) over Paper Silver (+10.5m) typically. It is blatantly obvious but the asleep won’t see it. The Paper Gold to Silver ratio saw a rise of +1.614 to 69.472 in Golds favour this week. The Dollar FXCM rose by -71pips to 11891 when including the Australian Dollar. The combined $INDGtSAgg rate rose modestly (Arbitrage with SGE) by +0.432 ticks to 163.973 in favour of Gold. Marginal strength appears to be ongoing for the decline of both the Dollar and Paper Gold (see the weakening strength cycle in a downwards direction). The Physical Pound Sterling Gold to Silver ratio rose this week by +1.312 notches to 59.287 in Golds favour. EGI rose by +0.0301 ticks to 6.4573 towards the Retailer. ESI fell by -0.8079 notches to 22.1279 towards the consumer. The 18th SGE week 36 ratios at close were; Gold to Silver 67.0824+, Gold to Platinum 1.1334+ [Platinum to Gold 0.8823-] (Platinum is catching up with Gold) and Platinum to Silver 59.1880+. The old paper markets show the following ratios by close of Week 36; Gold to Brent 26.4101-, Gold to Palladium 1.8959-, Gold to Platinum 1.2079+, Palladium to Silver 36.6428+, Platinum to Silver 57.5150+ and Brent to Silver 2.6305+. The Zinc to Copper (Zi:Cu) ratio rose this week to 1055.8191 from 1051.1776. Iridium rose again this week as did Rhodium with Ruthenium remaining unchanged meaning the 7PM for this week is 412 (4up,1par,2down). The current Gold Au ratios are Au:Rh=2.0796-, Au:Ir=2.2544-, Au:Ru=31.9374+. Paper Gold is Cheap compared to Physical Gold this week with Comex $1341.370oz vs SGE $1349.5502oz. Paper Silver is Cheap compared to Physical Silver this week with Comex $19.308oz vs SGE $20.118oz. Finally Paper Platinum is cheap compared to Physical Platinum with Comex $1110.500oz vs SGE $1190.733oz a narrowed $80.233oz difference.

General Commodities: This week we saw rises in Crude Oil (3^rd week in a row), Copper, Zinc, Aluminium (4^th week in a row) and Cobalt (4^th week of no falls). The fallers of the week were Coal, Uranium and Natural Gas (3^rd week in a row). Steel (9^th week in a row) remained unchanged.

Currencies: It’s getting tasty now watch this section closely over the coming weeks. The Ruble ended strongest this week with its inevitable effect on Oil but with the cost of un-competitiveness and takes the full 6 points. Next strongest and absolutely not wanting to be in this position was the €uro building confidence with an un-competitive currency (See the Dax and Cac Indexes) to inherit the 5 points available. Next strongest was the Pound which is pegging the €uro and staying just more competitive than the €uro and claiming the 4 points on offer. Into the more competitive, so-called weaker half and we see the Yen not quite able to weaken itself and claim 3 points again. The battle for weakest but most competitive currency of the week was lost by the Dollar trying to be more competitive than the CNY1m and unable to do so bringing with it the 2 points awarded but rotating in the Tri-Lateral Peloton nicely behind the Ruble but leading the CNY1m which claimed weakest and most competitive currency for the remaining 1 point of the week. The currency strength league after 40 weeks of watching stands as follows; 1^st Yen 155pts, 2^nd Ruble 152pts, 3^rd Dollar 145pts, 4^th €uro 142pts, 5^th CNY1m 130pts and 6^th Pound 116pts.

Government 10 Year Bonds: Bond Demand Rose pushing Prices Up and Yields Down in the following; Brazil 11.7900%, Mexico 5.8400%, Russia 8.3300%, Hong Kong 0.9460%, Singapore 1.7490% and India 7.1020%. Bond Demand Fell pushing Prices Down and Yields Up in the following; USA 1.5800%, UK 0.6200%, Germany -0.0310%, Switzerland -0.4810%, Holland 0.0580%, Japan -0.0830% and China 2.7200%. Bonds are inverted.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Reverse Repo FRRR’s): This week we saw a rise of +$2.622bn to $323.693bn while the 10 week rolling total saw a rise of +3866 ticks to $3.24138 from $3.20272 Trillion by close (Note: Wednesdays are the Federal Reserve’s weekly cut-off for statistics). A support trend is still in place as the 10 week rolling total continues to rise as stress builds.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index rose by +12pts to 683. Global shipping is in deep trouble. Stock Markets were generally down across the watch however a repeated crucial crack occurred in the illusion with the Dow and Russell 2000 indexes showing diversion with the Russell 2000 Index (Up) along with the Chinese Composite Index and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also rising. The Smart money is leaving the stock market and has been for months with PPM’s filling the holes left by selling.

With that we finish this weeks 88.018^th CNY1m Review as Money Supply figures come out next month. Looking ahead to next week’s 89.019^th CNY1m review we’ll hopefully see more cracks occurring as the weakness and stress continues to build noting a second Dow/Russell2k divergence this week. Just in case you’re wondering the 520 week moving averages are showing a very slight but consistent rise in the long term Gold to Silver ratio. From 7 weeks ago to now that long term ratio has changed through 58.2530, 58.2706, 58.2946, 58.3137, 58.3418 and 58.3691 to this week’s 58.3994. When a drop occurs in the metals it tends to find resistance at the 520 week level. Thanks for reading and well done to the British Olympic Team for doing so well at Rio as they look forward to Tokyo 2020....strangely, the 1988 film Akira is set in Neo Tokyo which in the storyline is also hosting the 2020 Olympics.....

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