Discussion Area for the CNY1m weekly review

[shemyaza]

Please use this topic area to question and argue thoughts in relation to my Weekly CNY1m review of Precious Metals.

The actual review is a weekly data set for us all to reference to try and see how the Data affects various aspects of Precious Metal prices in various currencies and for us to look into areas which may spark ideas and thoughts as to where this is heading. I'll place my review thoughts here after posting each week's data. What I have seen the last year has put a different perspective on Stacking. Yes it is vitally important to stack, but at what price is best and when is what this is all about with collective thinking bringing the observations together.

[shemyaza]

Pipers, in answer to your question, I'm seeing Gold falling. If Oil can reach parity (supply and demand ratios) so will Gold. History dictates however when Gold reaches it's lows, that will be the time when Gold begins it's bounce upwards. I will wait for that sub $957.45 price to occur. In Pound terms £630-670 depending on the exchange rate between £ and $.

[shemyaza]

The Week 50 CNY1m review statistics of precious metals are now updated. I’ll place the review summary here for comment, abuse and general discussion which is all good in the long run. Thanks Piper for doing the delete from the main statistics section. Feel free to chuck in comments here.

Type: A- this week as all 4 main Precious Metals fell in dollar terms (A) and the Chinese Yuan Interbank 1 month forward rate depreciated against the dollar (-). In Pound terms the Type showing this week is A1011- where Gold, Palladium and Platinum all fell (A) (1) while Silver held on to post a small gain in Pounds (0). The Pound depreciated against the dollar this week (-). The Dollar Index rose above 100 which normally puts pressure on Silver, instead Gold suffered as the Physical and Paper Gold to Silver ratios declined, a move towards Silver. Another inverse move. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium held steady. The Earned Gold Index showed greater abundance or anticipated falling prices with Premium rises as it ticked upwards. The Earned Silver Index also shows abundance or anticipated falling prices with Premium rises as it also ticked upwards. My M0-M2 US Money Supply Parity for Gold 2004-2015 is $957.45oz and the same for Silver is $14.86oz to the end of November.

General Commodities: Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Zinc, Aluminium (Tin replaced as per David Morgan’s information regarding Solar substitute usage of Aluminium instead of Silver in Photovoltaics without loss of performance) and Cobalt all rising this week. The faller was Coal edging down with Uranium and Steel holding steady. Gold and Oil always track so I’m expecting Oil to pull Gold down to parity.

Currencies: The Merry-Go-Round showed strength this week from the Japanese Yen beating all with the Dollar just behind. The CNY1m was 3^rd followed by a tie between the Ruble, Euro and Pound beating each other Paper Scissors, Stone style but tied in the 3 way battle. Points shared as the Dollar and Yen lead followed by the Ruble, CNY1m, Pound Sterling and the Euro weakest of all after 2 weeks of Merry-Go-Round watching. The Pound is back to its Dec 2011 rate with the Public Yuan although slightly weaker. Look for yourself, no real change as it was £1=9.68 in Dec 2011 but now at £1=9.60 with the Public Yuan slightly stronger than Dec 2011. Propaganda Relations or Marketing that is the question. NetDania is useful for seeing that reality.

Government 10 year Bonds: The new Wall $treet Week (I used to watch Louis Rukeyser from video recordings as his US PBS show was shown late at night on ITV in the 80’s. He was a legend in Finance Television) which has been brought back focus straight in on the Bond Maturity Cycle in Episode 1 and the Perfect storm which is coming in 2017-18. Everyone is aware of it in finance and scared of it. Bonds generally on my own watch saw demand rising and yields falling as prices were pushed up with Brazil and India only seeing demand falls with price falls and yield rises. Switzerland continues to see the CHF strengthen as Bond yields fell from -0.3632% last week to a new negative yield of -0.3980% this week. Holders pay to own the Bond. Yields fell in the following: USA, Mexico, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Holland, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index saw recovery this week bouncing up 83 points from its record low of 498 last week. The Stock Markets showed mixed sentiment with the Dow, Chinese Composite, Russian Micex, Hong Kong Hang Seng, and Japanese Topix indexes showing falls whilst the FTSE100, FTSE All share, Japanese Nikkei and US Russell 2000 indexes saw rises this week. A small shift away from Equities and into Bonds occurred this week.

The US Fed Reverse Repo’s: A reduction in reverse repurchasing occurred this week however the 10 week rolling total saw a slight rise overall to $3.356 Trillion over the last 10 weeks.

That’s the voting from the Week 50 review update and we await the findings from the Week 51 jury. Who will get 12 points from the Greek voting? Thankfully Cyprus isn’t in my watch so tune in next week to see what rises, what falls and who stays steady in next week’s penultimate stat attack of the full watch year.

[Danny-boy]

I really enjoy reading this, but I only understand about 50% of it [emoji1]

[shemyaza]

Scary thing is same here lol, was once about 10% but doing this has raised that up. If anyone out there actually understands what all the numbers actually point too please say as I bet we're all wondering

[Danny-boy]

Oh, I thought you wrote it yourself!!!!

[garthy]

Nice work Shemyaza

So David Morgan's saying solar panels are now using aluminium instead of silver without loss of performance, I've not heard that one, aluminium's always been used in conjunction with silver in solar panels, tin will be replacing lead as a solder, but I can't see aluminium replacing silver, it just doesn't have the same conductivity, you would have to use a lot more of it and that would make the panels a lot heavier, if anything replace the silver with copper which's second to silver as a conductor, you'd still have to increase the size to get the same efficiency, but they would've done that a long time ago if it was cost affective.

On the weakening demand for commodities, I can't see anything changing until the governments around the world admit defeat and destroy their currencies, I personally feel that will have to happen at some point, it's going to be interesting to see how long all this takes to turn around and how they will achieve it, one things for sure even though I'm under water with gold and silver I'm pleased I have it for what lies ahead.  

 

 

[shemyaza]

That's what he said though, I'll find the recent interview but he is being fair in sharing the information he has in developments affecting Silver and in the reduced usage of Silicon.

Youtube: "Ellis Martin Report with David Morgan-Silver Triple Bottom?" 21st November 2015. Company mentioned, NatCore.

[shemyaza]

The Week 51 CNY1m review statistics are now updated and displayed.

Type: B+ this week as all 4 main Precious metals saw rises in Dollar terms (B) with CNY1m appreciation (+) which falls back into the standard model of trends.  In Pound terms B+ was also seen with Pound appreciation against the dollar. The Dollar Index fell below 100 with the standard model back in place with the Gold to Silver ratios moving correctly towards Silver with the Paper and Physical prices.  Iridium and Ruthenium held steady while Rhodium bucked the trend and fell in Dollar terms. The Earned Gold Index fell a touch indicating a slight tightening of availability (Christmas Demand) and the same seen in the Earned Silver Index. Availability I’d say is un-changed and strong in both Gold and Silver. We add $4.79 to the Gold Parity moving into December so the Parity for Gold for which Derivatives will naturally price, rises from $957.45oz to $962.24oz to the end of December. We also add 7 cents to the Silver Parity moving into December which brings Silver’s natural derivative parity price from $14.86oz to $14.93oz to the end of December. Gold sits above, Silver below.

General Commodities: Coal, Copper and Aluminium saw rises this week in dollar terms while Oil, Natural Gas, Zinc and Cobalt saw falls this week. Uranium and Steel held steady. A mixed bag as you can see. I do expect Oil to pull Gold down though.

Currencies: This week the Merry-Go-Round looked more like the top half of the Premier League with all 6 Currencies bunching up. The €uro after being the weakest of the currencies the last two weeks came back strong to win Week 51’s battle. The Ruble after winning Week 49 failed to capitalise on a strong start and picked up just 1 point this week. The Dollar and Yen gave up good leads for the chasing pack to close the gap this week. The Dollar still leads the strength league but the CNY1m retains consistency. The Ruble for the 20^th consecutive week saw last 5 minute Friday night overwhelming demand for positioning into Weekend oil trading by Corporations of all nations. Eventually someone will mention it but in the meantime, shhhhhh.

Government 10 year Bonds: Some of you may have noticed a Bond sell off this week, only India of my watch saw higher demand pushing up their Bond prices and thus pushing down yield. The USA, Mexico, Brazil, UK, Germany, Holland, Switzerland (that negative bond got nearer to 0.00 finishing at -0.2622%), Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore seeing falling demand and rising yields this week. Stocks and Bonds sold this week, the money seems to have travelled into €uro and Pound cash sideline safety and PM’s at the end of the week.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Repo’s): A fall again this week in reverse repo’s with the 10 week rolling total falling a touch. $3.33 trillion seems to be the settled 10 week rolling repo figure to date. The December Interest Rate decision is due this week by the US Fed.

UK Money Supply: Both M0 & M1 had new updates to the monthly figures with M0 showing a slight fall in the 12 month rate but the month on month figure compounds to 6.51437% if replicated every month for 12 months. The M1 figure shows a slight rise in Money Supply in that category and a Month on Month compounded figure of 8.59561% if replicated over 12 months in UK M1 Money Supply inflation. A perceived over supply of goods and services which normally pushes prices down can be counter-acted by raising money supply to maintain price parity but erodes the actual value of money itself.

So Week 51 came and went and Britain won the Davis Cup. Steve would be proud. Next week becomes the un-heralded 52^nd Week of this review and a 1^st season of the watch. I hope it is proving a useful guide to how all things paper and physical move in the markets and how the numbers change over time. Valuation is in the eye of the beholder, it just depends on which currency that beholder holds. With that we say farewell to a steady Week 51 and suit up Week 52 ready for the end of season party. Thank you for taking the time to look, read and learn as I have as we come back, same time next week for the year end review.

[Pipers]

I think the banks will squeeze  hedge funds next week. the banks had closed their short positions having sold them to the the funds then we see the gold price rise, this has happeneg 4 times this year. 

 

[shemyaza]

Big institutions from whichever country they were from withdrew vast capital funds during the week 28th Sept to 2nd Oct (Week 42 on the watch). Many many stocks saw year lows that actual week, not after the late August confidence correction. That week troubles me as to the extent it has affected the different and varied sectors within the whole UK stock market. The tide went out that week and also look at the Fed reverse repo figure for that week. That's no coincidence. Some very big players decided to come out of the open markets. Pipers, in Stocks, short set-ups tend to create lower highs and lower lows as a small rise is followed by a large fall (Remember the Nikkei sharp rise then continuous fall, a classic set-up) so if they are reloading the shorting gun a rise in demand pushes prices up definately. Where it goes I don't know.

[garthy]

I see rhodium's still falling, $720oz, that's something like a 12 year low, this time last year the price was $1200oz in 2008 it was $10000oz, that's some fall, if it ever goes to $500 I may have to get myself a small bar.

[shemyaza]

What else spiked in 2008? Answer, Platinum, Palladium saw it's low of $200......WTI Oil spiked at $143 a barrel in 2008. I'm de-programming myself from the currency mantra and going into what we're supposed to be thinking cycles in mass metrics. How to preserve wealth outside of the monetary system using the system. Danny I do write this myself, sometimes it's a real chore but allows me to share the thinking and learning process. PM's are wealth storage and we are in the right forum at the exact right time now.

[KDave]

A lot has changed in the last 5 years. I am not sure that the relationship between the dollar price of gold and the dollar price of oil is the indicator that it used to be. It is true that historically there has been a close correlation between the dollar price of oil and gold and the two could be used to decide when gold was cheap or expensive, based on how many barrels of oil could buy with your gold and vice versa. The problem I have with using this indicator today is the recent advent of Shale oil, most importantly in the US, which has greatly increased the present and potential supply of oil outside of Opec countries and has therefore greatly changed the relationship between the US and Opec, and by extension gold. 

Golds parity with oil will have to be put on hold for me. Having said that, it makes no real difference for now, as the trend for everything real is down so that is what I am expecting for gold prices. The deflationary forces are strong. 

Really appreciate these weekly reviews shemyaza. I don't understand it all either but it is very interesting and useful to have access to it here. 

[shemyaza]

We'll see over the coming weeks and months but I will add in a few ratio's so we can keep an eye it. By definition The Global Derivatives System is in fact the Global Barter System in which the value of things against things change and the effects are felt in the Monetary 2nd system. When expensive things hold most value to cheap things you enter recession, when cheap things hold most value to expensive things you have booms. The movement from one to another creates disturbance in the 2nd system and thus we see transition between boom and bust. This is how it all functions.

[shemyaza]

And so here it is Week 52 an entire year of statistics and numbers to make any sane person fall asleep after a sturdy dinner and a warm Horlicks. I’ve said enough on the classic ratio so without further ado, we dive into this week’s year-end review as shown by the data which is now viewable.

Type: C0111- is applied this week. C is like A however the CNY1m depreciation (-) overtook the fall in the Gold price so it actually saw a rise (0) in price. The other metals saw falls (1) in CNY1m terms and general falls in Dollar terms. A+ occurred in Pound terms as again PM’s fell (A) but the Pound appreciated against the dollar (+). The Dollar Index fell this week however against the grain the Gold to Silver ratios (Paper and Physical) actually saw a rise in Gold’s favour. Arbitrage over the weekend shows Silver as undervalued with Gold overvalued in currency terms heading into Monday. Iridium and Ruthenium again held steady while Rhodium declined slightly. The Earned Gold Index saw a slight rise with the Earned Silver Index similarly rising slightly showing supply is untroubled.

General Commodities: This week’s risers were Uranium, Copper and Zinc. The fallers were Oil, Coal, Natural Gas, Aluminium and Cobalt. Once again Steel continues to remain steady. I’m still expecting Oil to pull Gold down.

Currencies: Not sure how to define this, oh yes, a Merry-Go-Round. Now it’s closing up with the Ruble protecting Oil value staying weak, 1 point. In order of strength the Japanese Yen was strongest followed by the Euro, Pound, Dollar, CNY1m and the Ruble weakest for Week 52. The Yen leads with 18pts with the Ruble at the back protecting Oil at 10pts. (Last 15mins of currency movements on Friday nights confirm the world-wide Ruble weekend arbitrage for 21 consecutive weeks, look for yourselves, this points to ratios).

Government 10 Year Bonds: Yield risers this week were Brazil, Mexico and India of the watchlist whilst the fallers were USA, UK, Germany, Switzerland (-0.2627%), Holland, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore. Demand in Bonds affects yield, higher demand pushes prices up, reducing yields, whilst lower demand reduces prices pushing up yields. The Bond market is vastly larger than the Equity (Stocks and shares) market. Money moved from Equities into Bonds this week. Its Fed Interest Rate decision time this week. A rise will mean recession is anticipated.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Repo’s): A small rise this week which brought down the 10 week rolling total to $2.966 trillion. Its Fed Rate decision time this week.

Week 52 finally arrived and brought with it the first signs of trouble in the monetary system, it’s done this countless times before in the last 100 years so don’t worry. Recession? Definitely. Since December 19^th 2014 I have wanted to track valuation in various formats of our stacks. I chose the CNY1m as it’s an Interbank currency which was under the radar until recently. It influences the Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Dow Jones in rising correlation and 2016 will bring in a second watch, The Ratio watch which will be a new way of thinking completely. If Gold falls, it’ll fall into Silver, Palladium and Oil at first glance. Week 52 walks into the distance and waves goodbye to Year 1 of the watch. Next week we welcome back Week 1 and begin the campfire of Year 2 with a boring, statistic fuelled night of Horlicks, Beer and burgers. Until next week stay tuned and add that old concept of Barter to your thought process. If 5 sheep bought 1 horse one day, but the next it only takes 3 as sheep become scarce what would you prefer to keep?

[shemyaza]

The Current cycles I'm seeing point to the following turn points are happening, Palladium to Oil ratio. Due to come into play, Gold to Silver and most importantly Gold to Oil.

[shemyaza]

The Gold to Oil ratio points the way ahead. I'll be backing Silver every step of the way. You only lose if at the point of selling you gain less Cash, in future this always becomes positive. It's at this point that value buying is activated. When others are Greedy, be fearful (Bottom, high prices), when others are fearful, be Greedy (Top, low prices). We are at the Top of the Cycle.

[shemyaza]

And so Week 1 comes back for a second stint in charge with fans hoping the stats perform well. Let’s see what the spotlight brings. Above the Week 1 stats a comparison of last year from Week 1 to 52 will be added so we can see how the year went for the stats that we saw from start to finish.

Type: B0111- is shown for the week in Dollar terms as the CNY1m depreciated (-) against the Dollar. Gold (0) fell in Dollar terms and the other three Precious metals rose in Dollar terms (1). In total rises were seen (B) in Dollar terms. For the Pound Sterling, B- is shown as all four PM’s rose with the Pound depreciating (-) against the Dollar (and everything else) which pushed Gold up. The Dollar Index rose as the Fed raised interest rates by a tiny 0.25% however against the grain yet again both Gold to Silver ratio’s (Physical and Paper) moved down towards Silver. Historically a G:S ratio of around 80 sees the shift from Expensive Gold buying more Cheap Silver until a bottom is reached around the 40 area when both are typically expensive in fiat currency (Cash) terms when Paper metal is far more valuable as a currency than Cash. Have the headache tablets ready as this is a difficult logic to understand. It goes back a very, very, very long time. Aristotle must’ve written of its variability. I wonder if he did think of Gold and Silver in value to each other and how those both changed in cycles when buying things all that time ago. Gold = £715.84 in close terms so £715.35 shows a low arbitrage over the weekend. Silver = £9.460 so £9.454 shows a low arbitrage position exists in Silver over the weekend as well. Last week, arbitrage un-tangled upon Sunday night opening. Iridium and Ruthenium again held steady so they have risen in value against the four main PM’s over the many months now. Rhodium* however saw another crash from $710oz to $660oz this week, un-noticed by many. The Earned Gold Index showed easier supply and the ESI showed a slight  tightening in supply.

General Commodities: Fallers this week were Brent Crude Oil, Coal, Uranium* (*like Rhodium it crashed), Natural Gas and Zinc. Risers this week were WTI Crude Oil, Copper, Aluminium and Cobalt. Once again Steel held steady. Just a note, Copper and Gold seem intertwined in the Gold to Copper ratio, a very narrow range exists historically for these two and makes me wonder why certain coins contain both metals. Comments please on this, it really strange. I expect if Gold falls, Copper falls, which is possibly why Glencore are trying to get out of copper quickly if this is the inevitability they are seeing. It’s a conjecture based on all-time graphs. Gold to Brent Crude Oil is at 29.1368 and G:WTI is at 29.8068. Around 30.000 historically is Golds trigger DY/DX into Oil. 3 others exist, Silver is 1, leaving 2 others for another topic.

Currencies: I can’t think of the word for it, it goes around, kids play on it, you guessed it. The Merry-Go-Round continues. This week the £ devalued against the world so easily picks up 1 point from the Currency judges. The Dollar beat all as was pre-determined and so weakens their trade position 6 points for the Dollar. 5 points were awarded to Yen as they couldn’t print fast enough to keep below the rest.  China moved the Golden CNY1m weaker further for 4 points. The €uro picked up 3 points as they went negative in interest rates but was not enough to fall further. The Ruble however which is valued with Oil was just barely behind the €uro and nearly went stronger at 9.59pm the last 5 mins of trading saw an enormous world-wide arbitrage move into the prospective Petro-Ruble as it nearly claimed 3 points. Trading closed 2 seconds too early so 2 points were claimed. The League table shows the Yen leading in strength (holding the grenade trying to throw it to someone else) with 23 points so far followed by the Dollar with 22 points. The €uro and CNY1m tied on 17 points followed by our Pound Sterling with 14 points and the Ruble maintaining its Oil income with Ruble weakness at 12 points.

Government 10 Year Bonds. An interesting regional mix this week. Bonds that saw Yield rises and thus weakened were as follows; USA, Brazil, UK, Germany, Switzerland (Still getting closer to zero at -0.1938%), Holland. Yield fallers who saw greater demand and thus higher Bond prices were; Mexico, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and India. The Dow and Nikkei Indexes saw money flow out into Asian and Mexican Bonds, PM’s and WTI Crude.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Repo’s): A small rise this week which raised the 10 week rolling total from $2.966 trillion to $2.990 trillion. The Fed raised and so the Barter ratio waves get squeezed closer from the left and right on the graphs. This shortens the Derivative-Barter Transaction Ratio Wave time frame!

Key Indexes: I think I forgot to add this last week, apologies for that. The Baltic Dry Index fell to a new low of 477.00 as shipping is now in bankruptcy territory. If Ports go bust, that will spread outwards from those locations if this continues for a while. Shipping waits for the Barter Derivative DY/DX transition shift which will save it. The Dow saw falls again this week but the strengthening Dollar should stabilise it as external money flows into the stock market with the higher dollar retaining extra value in shares and dividends. The Nikkei also saw itself fall again below the 19000 barrier but it didn’t trigger a black box further fall via software algorithms due to the strength of the Yen. Fallers this week were The US Dow Jones Index (Quadruple Witching did indeed do it’s inevitable work in crushing Friday’s Dow) however the wider US Russell 2000 index only fell slightly showing strength in the smaller cap companies. The Japanese Nikkei fell more strongly than the wider smaller cap Japanese Topix index which fell much less. The Russian Micex fell slightly. The risers of the week, The UK FTSE 100 and an actually stronger wider smaller cap inclusive FTSE All-share index. Also the Chinese Shanghai Composite index although I do prefer the A-Share index which is more exclusive (For the Citizens) and seems to be backed by Gold but for the time being I’ll list the more popular Composite Index. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong recovered a little after recent falls. The Pound falling will weigh heavy on our indexes this week I suspect.

Well with no new information for the month in Money supply at the moment we end Week 01 with its sacking as the stats did no favours as hard as it tried and must give way temporarily to Week 02 coming in to steady the ship. We may see bring back Week 01 banners in the stands but well it is a numbers game after all. So with that, we saw the Fed raise interest rates by 0.25% and Pound devaluation in world terms. The office is prepared and the name plate changed as we welcome Week 02 into the clubhouse and hopefully a change in the reviews outlook prospects going into Quarter 1 of this year’s watch. I’ll do a recap of Week 01 to Week 52 for us to all look at during the week and introduce the Barter Derivative Ratio watch for Christmas reading. This week is busy in normal life so I hope to have that done by Christmas. Until then have a Happy Christmas from me and I hope it’s giving you all a second thought process in interpreting what’s going on. It’s certainly given me new eyes looking at all this which you now see. As they might say on Goldseek Radio, Thanks Chris. We all thank you here on the forum and your hard work in making the Silver Forum possible. I shall become a premium member if allowed in the new year. Merry Christmas to you from all of us!

[Pipers]

Silver is only a good bet on very extreme conditions in the UK I know Shemyaza trades paper but physical is different.  Paper maybe 75-1 physical is 63-1 then selling silver is higher costs compared to gold in the UK Gold sell 97% easy silver 87% plus more expensive postage.  The plus side on silver is in the long term 15 years IMO 

Shemyaza makes a different point about platinum again vat is to be added and S.A have kept up mining but how long will this metal stay at this price compared to Gold. Oil is cheap I shorted it down to 50usd itsnow 35 it is cheap!! It could stay there for a while the Baltic dry and HP index both show slow down in world shipping both together don't lie. 

@shemyazaOne question for Shemyaza If silver is such a good bet why don't you trade all your gold into silver then trade it back into gold when the ratio is better?  

 

[shemyaza]

That's why I shall be looking closely at what happened during 1990 to 2002. I don't trade paper metal, I hold physical but I'm looking at i shares as a possibility via iii but with these I need be fully aware of it before entering it so I'm carefully researching it (Christmas is proving a huge distraction mind you). Great questionPipers and needs to be asked and that's why I want to go through the thinking carefully using actual past data and looking at the period 90-02 which was very flat for commodities just as the period we seem to be entering now. Lots to look at closely and go through it carefully.

[shemyaza]

First task completed. I've added under Week 52 the Annual Review of Week 01 to Week 52 of the CNY1m weekly review stats.

[shemyaza]

Week 2 was brought in to steady the ship and it did a fine job as we saw a comfortable week through the stats.

Type: B+ is shown for Week 2 as we saw the CNY1m appreciate slightly against the dollar (+) and this combined with rising Precious Metals in dollar terms across the four watch metals (B) resulted in a strong week for paper PM’s in dollar terms. For the Pound, B1101+ is shown where Palladium (0) was the only decliner with the other three (1) watch metals rising as the Pound appreciated (+) against the dollar. The Dollar Index fell this week alongside a correct movement in the paper Gold to Silver ratio towards Silver. In Physical terms a small inverse movement occurred towards Gold most likely caused by the shorter week. Gold EGI showed easier supply whilst Silver ESI showed a tightening in supply. Next week I will switch focus away from the 2015 Philharmonic market into the 2016 Philharmonic market as a barometer of the physical realm. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium held steady in Week 2.

General Commodities: The only faller this week was Coal whilst Oil (WTI Crude overtaking Brent Crude (both rising) as the USA lifted Oil exportation after legislatively in-acting the ban in 1976), Uranium, Natural Gas, Copper, Zinc, Aluminium and Cobalt all saw rises. Steel again remained steady. A good week in all for Precious Metals, Commodities and Energy benefitting from a release of capital from Bonds.

Currencies: Well the Merry-Go-Round saw Japan fly off the edge into the storm as it held the grenade again and as you’ll see below (Key Indexes) suffered the consequences. This week we saw the €uro emerge strongest and receive maximum 6 unwanted points whilst in weakening order, the Japanese Yen held 5pts followed by the Pound with 4pts, the Ruble an unwanted 3pts, the CNY1m winning a tie breaker with the Dollar gaining 2pts and the Federal Reserve Note receiving 1 point. Current standings now show the Yen clearly ahead in strength with 28pts, followed by both the Dollar and €uro tied with 23pts, the CNY1m with 19pts, the Pound with 18pts and the Ruble supporting Oil with 15pts.

Government 10yr Bonds: Well this week Bonds weakened in price and thus yields were higher through USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, Germany, Switzerland (getting nearer to 0.00 at -0.1337%), Holland, Japan and India. Hong Kong and Singapore saw strengthening Bond prices with the associated fall in yields that come with it. Money moved from Bonds into Equities, PM’s, Commodities and Energy.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Repo’s): A larger rise this week to $389.586 Billion saw the 10 week rolling total push back over the $3.117 Trillion mark.

Key Indexes: The Baltic Dry index pushed ahead with a 1pt rise to 478 which so far sits comfortably in shipping bankruptcy territory. As mentioned above the continued ongoing Yen strength is now causing competitiveness worries in Tokyo and may have led to this week’s falls in both the Nikkei Dow 225 and wider Japanese Topix indexes as most other equity markets enjoyed a good week. The Dow, Russell 2000, Shanghai Composite, Russian Micex, FTSE 100, FTSE All-Share and Hong Kong Hang Seng Indexes all enjoyed rises through a stronger week as Bond’s released capital into Equities. The Pound’s strength saw a good response in the FTSE’s.

With no new Money Supply data in this review week, Week 2 can pat itself on the back and walk through the door pleased with a good response from the stats. Week 3 has booked the taxi and prepared the suitcase for occupation of the review office next week. Historically we saw the USA lift its Oil Export ban after nearly 40 years and Leicester City un-expectedly top the Premier League at Christmas. I hope everyone had a really good Christmas and feel free to be open and challenging to my observations, I prefer to question than accept.

[shemyaza]

I have now completed my Barter Derivative Matrix after a short bout of flu so I will use a few summary ratio's from my watch to go through the various Main cycles that we should be aware of. It's purely additional info and by no means take it as gospel just think of it as a second eye. The first look will be at the Platinum to Gold Ratio.

Data Source:SaxoBank, ptcalc.com

[shemyaza]

Week 3 comes back into action after a year out as we review what happened in this festively short week.

Type: A1100- is shown for the week as key paper declined (A) the main paper we watch, Gold and Silver both fell (1) while inversely Palladium and Platinum posted gains for the week (0) during a depreciation week (-) for the CNY1m against the Dollar. In Pound terms A1100- is also shown for the same rises and falls above with the Pound Depreciating against the Dollar by 1.314% (-). The Dollar Index rose sharply just prior to close which seems to have impacted Gold’s finish weaker, the Index rising to 98.693 correlating with a strongly rising paper Gold to Silver ratio whereby Dollar strength creates weakness for Silver over Gold. Physical Gold to Silver now includes a basket of Coin’s as shown in the watch and inversely showed a strengthening towards Silver with accompanied correlation with easier supply of Gold and tightening supply of Silver this week. However moving to 2016 coins and the basket could be a factor in the adjustment results. Gold EGI eased upwards and ESI tightened downwards. Iridium, Rhodium and Ruthenium were unchanged by week’s close. The Dollar Index sudden spike at close is most intriguing.

General Commodities: The star of the week was Natural Gas this week rising over 13% this week. It is winter so fairly expected. Other risers in the watch were Uranium, Copper (6^th straight up week) and Zinc. Steel once again remained steady. Declining commodities this week (in Dollar terms) were Crude Oil (Brent and West Texas Intermediate WTI) Coal (4^th straight down week and its winter), Aluminium and Cobalt. Oil in Rubles appreciated on the Brent and WTI markets.

Currencies: The Merry-Go-Round saw Japan’s Yen still off the spinner appreciating against the other 5 watch currencies to claim the 6 unwanted points. The Dollar proved next strongest for 5 points followed by the CNY1m with 4 points. The Euro ended strongest of the rest with 3 points with the Pound only beating the Ruble to finish 2^nd weakest with 2 points and the Oil protecting Ruble claiming the last point of the week and depreciating enough to raise the Ruble Oil price (102.7% since Aug’14). Norway has also followed this policy for the Kroner Oil price depreciating the currency by 47.5% since August 2014 both in terms of Dollars. The totals so far are: Yen 34pts, Dollar 28pts, Euro 26pts, CNY1m 23pts, Pound 20pts and Ruble 16pts.

Government 10 year Bonds: The Bond market observed a decline in Bond demand this week, seeing rising Yields on lower Bond prices. The Strong Bonds where Bond prices rise seeing Yields fall were; Germany, Japan and India. The Weakening Bonds of the week with rising Yields were; USA, Brazil, UK, Switzerland (-0.1196% still closing in on 0.00), Holland, Hong Kong, Singapore and China now on the Bond watch closing at 2.862%. Money moved to a certain extent from Bonds and seemed to find temporary safety in the Dollar.

US Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchases (Repo’s): Week 3 saw Reverse Repo’s reach $498.52 Billion for the single week setting a record as being the 3^rd Highest All-Time figure for the US Economy in a single week. It trails behind the 2^nd Place $509.84 Billion for the week 31^st December 2014 and the 1^st Place $641.08 Billion for the week 30^th September 2015. During the 2008 financial crisis an All-Time record setting $107.82 Billion was Reverse Repurchased for the week to 15^th October 2008 to put into perspective today compared to 7 years ago. Executive Christmas Bonuses must’ve required the 2^nd and 3^rd place amounts as a speculative wonder.

Key Indexes: I saw no data changes on the Baltic Dry Index this week which is why it remains at 478 as the Week 02 close. Stock Markets saw a little mixture this week with Japan and Russia providing the risers in the watch and the USA, UK, Hong Kong and China providing the fallers. As the trading weeks were short, maybe the strong Yen has provided temporary sanctuary within the Nikkei Dow and Topix. A quiet week though in equities and the weak Pound having it’s expected effect.

With no new Money Supply data until next week we wrap up Week 03 as so-so week. Coach Week 03 can head of into 2017 content in the knowledge that the disturbance of Week 01 has been calmed while bloated with Turkey, Brussels Sprouts and Stuffing. Viennetta always being an after-thought post-dinner indulgence. Until next week when we gather once more around the George Foreman Barbecues for Week 4’s exciting installment of the CNY1m review.