We're doomed I tell ya.......doooooooooomed !

[Danny-boy]

I can see options for rounds in Europe about £10.90 p/oz before post. It's not scrap price but there are lots of choices sub £14.50 delivered.

Agreed, there is plenty available at £14.50.

£12.28 is the cheapest 1oz round on STG at the moment, so just buying 10 of them will see you with a £13.47 average. Buying 100 will see you over £1/oz better off at £12.45 average.

[Cointreau]

Here's a big call from Bill Holter, Putting this up without having seen it first

 

 

 

 

[HighlandTiger]

I stopped watching when they started to infer that Canada was heading for hyperinflation.....not sure when 4% food inflation started to be classed as in the Zimbabwe bracket, but hey ho.  

[Cointreau]

51 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

I stopped watching when they started to infer that Canada was heading for hyperinflation.....not sure when 4% food inflation started to be classed as in the Zimbabwe bracket, but hey ho.  

You see but you do not observe. You hear yet do not understand. You are a naughty boy.

Seriously, the plunging Baltic dry index, the plummeting oil price, crashing stock markets, etc. etc.

 

 

 

 

 

[HighlandTiger]

The problem is that when people quote the Baltic Dry Index, (which is the index of the cost of shipping raw materials), as the herald of world collapse and end times etc etc etc, they forget that a lot of the fall, (but not all of course), is down to low oil costs, (after all one of the main costs of shipping is the fuel needed to move a ship 24 hours a a day), and the ship building boom that has occurred over the last decade, meaning there are more ships competing for the same market. This has skewed the index somewhat more than would normally happen when economies are slowing down. 

Oil price drops are partly political, and partly a result of clean / green /renewable energy. Less demand for the black stuff, and the middle east playing a game akin to poker watching their competitors faces for the slightest twitch and tell, is keeping the oil prices low.

Stock markets crashing, is simply the herd mentality of the rich persons betting shop. The Chinese growth rate is 7%, and yet this is looked at as a disaster, but paradoxically it is still nearly double the size of the worlds largest economy the USA at 3.9%. Tarquin in the city gets the jitters because the race favourite has shod a shoe, and the rest of the betting shop follow him. 

You see, when hearing and understanding, it helps to know ALL the facts, not just the ones the youtube professors belch out.

 

  

[Danny-boy]

The problem is that when people quote the Baltic Dry Index, (which is the index of the cost of shipping raw materials), as the herald of world collapse and end times etc etc etc, they forget that a lot of the fall, (but not all of course), is down to low oil costs, (after all one of the main costs of shipping is the fuel needed to move a ship 24 hours a a day), and the ship building boom that has occurred over the last decade, meaning there are more ships competing for the same market.

My wife works in air & sea freight for a £5bn company, and she said the cost of sea freight has plunged over the last 18 months.

Not sure the whole saving has found its way to her clients though [emoji1]

[Cointreau]

Danny, I would bet that the shipping companies are operating at a loss at the moment.

And one or two of them maybe in dire straits heading for the proverbial iceberg.

I do note however that shipping rates are very volatile, and sensitive to marginal movements in

the supply/demand equation.

 

[sovereignsteve]

I think he was saying that company operating costs have fallen but the customers are still paying previous rates, therefore company profits will be far greater.

[Pete]

The world is spiralling down the plug-hole because Chinese growth is only 6.9% and has fallen from previous years !

Doesn't anyone calculate that compound growth is a massive number ?

Growth of 6.9% per annum over 3 years is a whopping 22%.

We celebrate if we [UK] hit 2 or 3% and that's not on the second biggest economy of the world [China] ( maybe even the biggest - who knows ? )

[HawkHybrid]

for a country that may still have electricity supply

problems, 'growth' in this case includes much of

what we would take for granted.

 

HH

[DRooster]

7 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

 The Chinese growth rate is 7%,...

 

  

I think that's a fake figure. There has been a lot of fake figures in China's recent industrial/business history. I think their growth is negative right now.

I'm sure you know more than me, but that's my feeling.

[Cointreau]

Thank you Mr Rooster. I was just about to say that. This 6-7% growth is bullshit.

No SovereignSteve. Ship owners are currently losing $3-4K per day on the biggest Cape size bulk ships.

Now if you have a fleet 30 or 40 ships then those losses really add up.

Bank loans have to be re-negotiated. Ships have to be sold.

[Cointreau]

Global shipping on newsnight BBC2 right now.

Confirmation that ship owners are running at a loss.

[goldbones]

13 hours ago, Pete said:

The world is spiralling down the plug-hole because Chinese growth is only 6.9% and has fallen from previous years !

Doesn't anyone calculate that compound growth is a massive number ?

Growth of 6.9% per annum over 3 years is a whopping 22%.

We celebrate if we [UK] hit 2 or 3% and that's not on the second biggest economy of the world [China] ( maybe even the biggest - who knows ? )

China isn't plunging it's everyone else who buys from china who is plunging, china is perfectly fine, yes they have a stock market bubble but who created that bubble? not them that's a bubble that was created by everyone who trades with them, so when you see china plunging you're not actually seeing china plunge you're seeing your own country plunge.

[goldbones]

20 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

The problem is that when people quote the Baltic Dry Index, (which is the index of the cost of shipping raw materials), as the herald of world collapse and end times etc etc etc, they forget that a lot of the fall, (but not all of course), is down to low oil costs, (after all one of the main costs of shipping is the fuel needed to move a ship 24 hours a a day), and the ship building boom that has occurred over the last decade, meaning there are more ships competing for the same market. This has skewed the index somewhat more than would normally happen when economies are slowing down. 

Oil price drops are partly political, and partly a result of clean / green /renewable energy. Less demand for the black stuff, and the middle east playing a game akin to poker watching their competitors faces for the slightest twitch and tell, is keeping the oil prices low.

Stock markets crashing, is simply the herd mentality of the rich persons betting shop. The Chinese growth rate is 7%, and yet this is looked at as a disaster, but paradoxically it is still nearly double the size of the worlds largest economy the USA at 3.9%. Tarquin in the city gets the jitters because the race favourite has shod a shoe, and the rest of the betting shop follow him. 

You see, when hearing and understanding, it helps to know ALL the facts, not just the ones the youtube professors belch out.

 

  

That all sounds a bit misleading or skipping over the details, even though some of what you say is a factor.

The root cause of everything happening now is malinvestment created by QE 1,2,and 3 and 0% interest rates it caused a huge amount of capital to go into production in an economy that couldn't soak it up.

Real estate is a root cause also because if people are spending more and more money on rent and servicing mortgage debt it means that most of the capital is being directed to an area of the economy that does nothing and produces nothing, real estate does not do ANYTHING except soak up capital that would be better spent elsewhere.

Then you have the pumping out of student loans and credit cards which also creates more distortions when suddenly people hit a brick wall and are maxed out, so yet again the market sees their debt money being spent as a sign of growth which is an incorrect signal because all that debt has a limit and after that you're back to square one and falling.

On top of that companies have been using the low interest rates to buy back their own stock giving the world and markets the impression they are doing better than they actually are (legalised fraud), meanwhile other money is used to ramp up production in a slowing environment so crunch time hits and they have to unwind everything and  lay everyone off or go bust entirely which adds further strain and crushes demand further, it is a recession that could turn into a depression NOT "a bunch of gamblers and politicians having a bit of a tiff and panic sellers".

I mean what you said about oil is blatantly false for if it were true then it would just be oil falling by itself or simply over supply of oil with no sign of demand dropping in all the other commodities, all commodities across the board got cranked up in oversupply in a flat or falling demand environment. If you speak of low oil prices logic dictates you can't fail to mention all the other commodities which have collapsed and indeed were collapsing even before the oil price tanked.

[HighlandTiger]

I just love this forum, where else can you find lay people claiming they know better than all the top economists in the world, and somehow . just somehow, they've managed to navigate the conspiracies maze in order to work out what is really happening. 

 

Youtube has a lot to answer for....lol

4 hours ago, goldbones said:

Real estate is a root cause also because if people are spending more and more money on rent and servicing mortgage debt it means that most of the capital is being directed to an area of the economy that does nothing and produces nothing, real estate does not do ANYTHING except soak up capital that would be better spent elsewhere.

 One slight problem with your "facts" there. God bless Youtube

In 2008 at the start of the recession, on average, mortgage payments for first time buyers had hit over 50% of average household income. Today that figure is about 33% of income, (and falling). Nothing like a few facts to get in the way of the doom and gloom merchants.

[goldbones]

Where is the other 3 years on that chart , did it pick up?

And 33% is in an environment of stagnant wages and prices rising elsewhere, so doesn't tell the whole story. Don't forget at least between 2000-2008 you could have saved and earned some interest on savings so that part has been subdued since then, and markets are in general forward looking so interest rate rises (or the fear of them) are also going to come into play.

[Paul]

9 out of 10 statisticians told me your figures can be fudged to promote whatever agenda you wish are wishing to push, prop up a bubble market or implement a new policy on whatever.

For a forum that at its common core, is precious metals, why you wish to promote 'property' so religiously, i really dont know.  

Sale over to moneysavingexpert, landlordzone or propertytribe your comments will have a much better audience

My decisions for getting into precious metals back in 2010 are still the same, the problems of 2008 didnt go away, we never got out of recession, things are NOT better, the credit bubble has been inflated multiple times and the same reasons that caused the 2008 crash are still there and will come back.  We read issue after issue weekly of holes appearing in the dam and the water will come crashing through.  

[goldbones]

7 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

I just love this forum, where else can you find lay people claiming they know better than all the top economists in the world, and somehow . just somehow, they've managed to navigate the conspiracies maze in order to work out what is really happening. 

 

That's an argument from authority, it's a fallacious statement since while top economists can be correct they can also be incorrect since it is not an exact science (unlike perhaps if a physicist has proven something with an experiment and math).

It's false logic to simply state "you can't possibly know better than a trained person" it's entirely possible, the debate doesn't end simply because you invoke an authority.

[HighlandTiger]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

For a forum that at its common core, is precious metals, why you wish to promote 'property' of religiously.  Sale over to moneysavingexpert, landlordzone or propertytribe your comments will have a much better audience

Or perhaps Paul, you should stop reading posts in the "personal finance / other investments" of this forum, if it upsets you so much when someone has a differing view to you when it comes to "other investments".

Not all of us have our blinkers on when it comes to our wonderfully shiny pieces of (allegedly) precious metal, some of us like to hear other peoples views on topics other than the latest pic of a Perth Mint silver round .

[Danny-boy]

It's probably not the fact that you have a differing view, it's probably because you put your opinion across in such a condescending way HT.

[HighlandTiger]

13 minutes ago, goldbones said:

Where is the other 3 years on that chart , did it pick up?

And 33% is in an environment of stagnant wages and prices rising elsewhere, so doesn't tell the whole story. Don't forget at least between 2000-2008 you could have saved and earned some interest on savings so that part has been subdued since then, and markets are in general forward looking so interest rate rises (or the fear of them) are also going to come into play.

@goldbones

The graphs came from this blog http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5568/housing/uk-house-price-affordability/

The blogger makes some interesting comments, not least his final conclusion which mirrors mine, and is the basis of my thoughts that property still has a lot rising to do before it ever levels off or falls to a consistent level.

A startling statistic is the projection of 250,000 extra households a year until 2033. Yet, the UK is only building 100,000 to 150,000 per year.

[Paul]

9 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

Or perhaps Paul, you should stop reading posts in the "personal finance / other investments" of this forum, if it upsets you so much when someone has a differing view to you when it comes to "other investments".

Not all of us have our blinkers on when it comes to our wonderfully shiny pieces of (allegedly) precious metal, some of us like to hear other peoples views on topics other than the latest pic of a Perth Mint silver round .

 

5 minutes ago, Danny-boy said:

It's probably not the fact that you have a differing view, it's probably because you put your opinion across in such a condescending way HT.

My times worth more than trying to religiously convert someones point of view so i will silently retire from debate.  I hope your bricks and motar make you $,$$$,$$$'s

[HighlandTiger]

4 minutes ago, Danny-boy said:

It's probably not the fact that you have a differing view, it's probably because you put your opinion across in such a condescending way HT.

If my view is that I believe that professional economists have a better understanding of the worldwide economic situation, more than the youtube professors or lay people on a precious metal forum is condescending then I apologise.

However that is something that has never been said to me before when using the exact same words on the exact same topic on other financial forums. For some reason those people who frequent the PM world have a larger tendency to believe in extremes. Such as conspiracy theories, NWO, Banking cartels ruling the world, the end of world etc etc. Nothing wrong there of course, but it is noticeable that the people who believe in these things also seem to have bigger problems when people don't believe the same as they do, than your average Joe public.,  

To paraphrase the great Roy Walker, I only say what I see.    

[goldbones]

8 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

If my view is that I believe that professional economists have a better understanding of the worldwide economic situation, more than the youtube professors or lay people on a precious metal forum is condescending then I apologise.

However that is something that has never been said to me before when using the exact same words on the exact same topic on other financial forums. For some reason those people who frequent the PM world have a larger tendency to believe in extremes. Such as conspiracy theories, NWO, Banking cartels ruling the world, the end of world etc etc. Nothing wrong there of course, but it is noticeable that the people who believe in these things also seem to have bigger problems when people don't believe the same as they do, than your average Joe public.,  

To paraphrase the great Roy Walker, I only say what I see.    

For every economist you can sit at your side of the table and pat you on the back, i'll find an equal amount of economists that will sit at my table and pat me on the back , usually those from the Austrian school of economics but not always.

We can have a selective bias or a cognitive bias on both sides since both are not always correct.

Now i'm not saying house prices will collapse this year, what i would suggest though is you review the situation very carefully come spring 2017 which is when any of the ill effects from this year and last will be starting to work their way through, especially should interest rates actually rise further (though this is starting to look doubtful now admittedly).

One thing most people agree on is that the effects of anything are not instant it's more like ripples that spread out and have a time delay.