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Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.


Message added by ChrisSilver

To discuss price action in USD instead, please see here: https://thesilverforum.com/topic/19861-silver-monitoring-thread-usd-only/

 

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I dont get it too. Its down another 10p from i wrote an hour ago. 

I did an order with GS also on Friday. If i waited until today, i would have saved 0.02%. 

Make new friends but keep the old.

One is silver and the other gold

* * * * K   e   e   p       o   n       s   t   a   c   k   i   n   g  ....my friends****

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Personally I'm completely indifferent about short term price movements from a stacking point of view, but I can see how it's frustrating if you have just bought, only to see it tank further. I think one of the steps in becoming a mature stacker is to just take it in your stride and know that volatility works to help you accumulate more ounces for your money, even if it means that plenty of your buys will seem ill-timed over a short time period.

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5 minutes ago, vand said:

Personally I'm completely indifferent about short term price movements from a stacking point of view, but I can see how it's frustrating if you have just bought, only to see it tank further. I think one of the steps in becoming a mature stacker is to just take it in your stride and know that volatility works to help you accumulate more ounces for your money, even if it means that plenty of your buys will seem ill-timed over a short time period.

I wanted to buy some more today, but it doesn't make sense that i must pay the same price as friday. 
So i postponed my order now, cause it doesn't make sense. 

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Outflows from the gold miners are being blamed on Le Pen not looking likely to win in the French election, but the moderate banker chap winning instead. Silver is suffering the same as gold I guess. Last week was a big week in regards to the amount of money leaving the major gold mining ETF's. GDX and GLD saw massive outflows into the tens of billions. Nothing fundamentally has changed, just some short term sentiment. Perhaps people think electing a banker to lead them will save the financial system from the inevitable :P

I have not checked if there are any currency changes that might be responsible for some of the movement?

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If the price goes down, don't fret, just keep buying and benefit from cost averaging.
As to why the price is going down: large volumes of sales contracts continue to be made on the futures market, which is where the price is recorded. For what it's worth, the gap between this paper price and the physical price in Shanghai is particularly high at the moment, and has been for about 10 days or so. Large gaps create an arbitrage opportunity, so they do not usually stay large for long.

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@Niels87  Just looking at the chart link at the top of the forum page and selecting EUR you can see that you should have been able to get them for around 30 cents cheaper.  I guess its the old story though.  When the comex banksters write the paper price down the dip tends not to be passed on fully to the physical market.

@jayboat  The rise we saw in April was not replicated so heavily in China but that's because they were already more expensive.  This sharp move down means that the comex has moved back to it's usual discount to the shanghai metal price.  The western paper discount to the Chinese physical markets was nearly zero two weeks ago with silver trading in china for roughly US$18:80 but that has only dropped during this paper drop to around US18.25.  All of the big drop in the last two weeks has been in the west in the paper market.  We are now back to the normal level of difference at around 15 - 20$ per ounce of gold and $1.50 per ounce of silver.  I'm guessing that a good number of the record long positions from the COT report two weeks ago have now been unwound.  Who knows its clearly so heavily manipulated.  Anyway, I take some comfort in the fact that the Chinese price has not moved anywhere near as much in all of this rollercoaster.

I swear if I just used the page below as a buy and sell timer it would have made me loads of money by now.  The lowest I ever saw paper silver get to was a $2.05 discount to the Chinese price (while shanghai was closed) back in December and that was just before it bounced hard.  2 weeks ago it went to parity just about and I knew I should have sold (paper) on that signal alone.  I've seen this reverse several times now and it has so far corresponded to bottoms and tops pretty accurately and works as a good overbought/sold indicator.

Worth an idle look from time to time.  http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

New profile pic to support the current thing, because it's current year.

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2 hours ago, silversky said:

@Niels87  Just looking at the chart link at the top of the forum page and selecting EUR you can see that you should have been able to get them for around 30 cents cheaper.  I guess its the old story though.  When the comex banksters write the paper price down the dip tends not to be passed on fully to the physical market.

@jayboat  The rise we saw in April was not replicated so heavily in China but that's because they were already more expensive.  This sharp move down means that the comex has moved back to it's usual discount to the shanghai metal price.  The western paper discount to the Chinese physical markets was nearly zero two weeks ago with silver trading in china for roughly US$18:80 but that has only dropped during this paper drop to around US18.25.  All of the big drop in the last two weeks has been in the west in the paper market.  We are now back to the normal level of difference at around 15 - 20$ per ounce of gold and $1.50 per ounce of silver.  I'm guessing that a good number of the record long positions from the COT report two weeks ago have now been unwound.  Who knows its clearly so heavily manipulated.  Anyway, I take some comfort in the fact that the Chinese price has not moved anywhere near as much in all of this rollercoaster.

I swear if I just used the page below as a buy and sell timer it would have made me loads of money by now.  The lowest I ever saw paper silver get to was a $2.05 discount to the Chinese price (while shanghai was closed) back in December and that was just before it bounced hard.  2 weeks ago it went to parity just about and I knew I should have sold (paper) on that signal alone.  I've seen this reverse several times now and it has so far corresponded to bottoms and tops pretty accurately and works as a good overbought/sold indicator.

Worth an idle look from time to time.  http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

Thanks for the reply buddy, theres some stuff in there i did not no about. Good information :)

ps, the homepage from the link above gives in a headache. haha 

Make new friends but keep the old.

One is silver and the other gold

* * * * K   e   e   p       o   n       s   t   a   c   k   i   n   g  ....my friends****

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@jayboat  It certainly doesn't look good for the pm's right now.  Here's a little 10 min vid from a guy that seems to be pretty good at analysing gold and silver using Elliott waves.  He does an interesting weekend clip every week.  I reckon for his bearish option to be set back we need to see a decent bounce by the end of the week back to the 1720 region which is looking less and less likely.  The weekly chart looks very bearish now and is currently forming the third of three black crows which is not good.  If it turns here (1680) though before Friday night and forms a decent hammer that might be positive but it's not looking likely imo.  I can see this falling all the way to trendline support at 1650 in pretty short order.  A crash through that and we're going all the way to 15.60.  That's the last line in the sand for the bullish case and as he says it would be a multi year consolidation if that happens.

 

New profile pic to support the current thing, because it's current year.

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It would not at all surprise me if gold did spend most of the next 12 months bumping between $1200-$1400, as it is still in the basing stage of bull market. I don't think that the last bull market really got going until 2003, and silver in particular was a complete laggard and was bumbling around until 2004 when it started to catch up massively. These markets play out over years, and it is often a case of 3 steps forward, 2 steps backward.

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I presume you mean as a contrarian indicator?  He does argue both sides but certainly seems to be leaning bearish.  Fair enough to argue both sides till we see which way we escape the current pattern.  I myself have doubts that the trump trade can continue for much longer also talk of the housing market going on up for another 4-5 years all over the net is another contrarian indicator to me.  Worldwide, who actually has the means to go even further into debt?  Another round of deflation through a flight to safety in cash is on the cards in my opinion.  If it happens it likely won't be great for gold and silver but wdik.  Maybe it will.  If there's another flight to cash and this time the UK pound gets really hammered it might not end up losing much in £'s.  It certainly won't stop me buying a little physical from time to time though.  Might just have to wait a lot longer to see a profit.

New profile pic to support the current thing, because it's current year.

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I'm not sure the new debt ceiling strategy lends itself to security, it looks like it's morphing into a date rather than an amount, the US government has been approved continual borrowing powers until September which is reckonned to add $1 trillion to the total.  If the debt ceiling is going to be a lurch from date to date rather than a nice safe large amount that must surely look a little worrying and like the plug could be pulled at any time.

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I don't know which way it is going to go, but I know which way I want the price of both metals to go and that is down. I miss £700 gold and £10 silver and would love to see them there again. Ronnie called the little gold and silver bull market very well back in early 2016. He is edging on the side of caution/calling for potentially lower, hopefully far lower prices in both metals. No one knows which way it will go, but if Ronnie is right again, that means bargains for all of us. Hence the good news :D

Well its good news if you are still accumulating, collecting and saving the stuff.

 

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6 hours ago, HelpingHands said:

Ha, for you the price went down to £10 sovereigns. 

Hehe that was truly amazing:) thinking of the price did help us end up keeping them, we decided that if we hold them we cant lose.. The price either goes up great - or sods law the price goes down but that's also great as we can rebuild a stake cheaper :)

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I would rather that pm's do not fall much further.  If they do it is looking likely that they will spend a very long time much lower than they are just now.  Great if you are a perma stacker but I am not.  I actually want to make a bit of cash from them before I die.  Held other investments at a loss for long long periods of time and it's not a good strategy.  Anyway, bought 3 kgs in the hope that this is nearly the end of the bloodletting.  :)

 

New profile pic to support the current thing, because it's current year.

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Spot paper vs physical dealers. Different costs. Think ownership of a Ferrari (without ever actually taking posession) vs actually having one in your garage and having to insure, change the oil, battery, tyres etc. plus tax on your property for the garage it sits in.

Edited by Oldun
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