Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[vand]

Just looking at the charts.. we got so far stretched above the long term moving averages that I feel this will be the first real longer term correction. 

When we spiked to $21 2 weeks ago we got stretched to 33% above the 144dma. I think we'll need at least a few weeks of corrective action for the MAs to catch up and/or spot price to fall back to near the 144dma to pave the platform for new highs.

Of course, this is all conjecture, we may shoot up to new highs and get even more stretched, but I'm basing my estimates on the balance of probabilities and how I believe that markets participants tend to behave.

[jayboat]

Abit of a rollercoaster the last few days, i guess the bank of England dropping interest rates have had something to do with it. 

 

How can they ever raise rates again without the world falling apart?

Maybe they will keep kicking the tin down the  road.............

[vand]

Solid move today, although ideally I would have liked for silver to at least tag the 89DMA as it did in early June, but it looks like we could be ready to go higher from here. The last churn in the last 5 weeks has definitely unwound a lot of speculative long positions and flushed out short term players and weak hands. 

[silversky]

On ‎10‎/‎08‎/‎2016 at 13:59, vand said:

Solid move today, although ideally I would have liked for silver to at least tag the 89DMA as it did in early June, but it looks like we could be ready to go higher from here. The last churn in the last 5 weeks has definitely unwound a lot of speculative long positions and flushed out short term players and weak hands. 

Hi Vand,  I see we've just tagged your 89DMA and got a nice little bounce today(so far anyway).  Can I ask where the specific number for the DMA comes from?  Is it particularly pm related or just a fib number. Thanks

[vand]

On 8/29/2016 at 21:21, silversky said:

Hi Vand,  I see we've just tagged your 89DMA and got a nice little bounce today(so far anyway).  Can I ask where the specific number for the DMA comes from?  Is it particularly pm related or just a fib number. Thanks

There are lots of reason why I like the 89dma. It's probably the lowest MA that I would consider to give a clue about long term trends, and yes I use it because it's a fib number. Stan Weinstein also was very sympathetic to it in this stage analysis theory when it came to looking at commodities. He preferred 30week MA for stocks, which approximates to the 144dma, another fib, which will give you a better lead than the more common 255dma which is again another fib which I prefer to use over the more common 200dma.

Edited September 5, 2016 by vand

[silversky]

Thanks for the reply.  Good to know 89/144 applies to the commodities.  Looking at the candles, I see that last week both the daily and weekly prices closed the gap!  I wasn't sure if it was gonna end up as a runaway gap and be very bearish but it seems to have been firmly closed instead.  Also the weekly price has formed a bullish weekly reversal pattern.  It was a strong rise last week so interesting to see what happens from here.  According to http://thepatternsite.com/WeeklyRevsUpside.html a bullish weekly reversal in a bull market has a 70% chance of succeeding in further rises and on the stocks he tested it with they went on for a 19% ave further gain.  Personally, I'm hoping the price stalls a bit here till I've had a chance to buy myself a 10oz Lunar rooster lol.  I'm hoping they are coming out next week and it would be nice if the £ could pick itself up off the floor as well to reduce the price a bit as it's getting expensive these days.

[jayboat]

20 hours ago, vand said:

There are lots of reason why I like the 89dma. It's probably the lowest MA that I would consider to give a clue about long term trends, and yes I use it because it's a fib number. Stan Weinstein also was very sympathetic to it in this stage analysis theory when it came to looking at commodities. He preferred 30week MA for stocks, which approximates to the 144dma, another fib, which will give you a better lead than the more common 255dma which is again another fib which I prefer to use over the more common 200dma.

 

3 hours ago, silversky said:

Thanks for the reply.  Good to know 89/144 applies to the commodities.  Looking at the candles, I see that last week both the daily and weekly prices closed the gap!  I wasn't sure if it was gonna end up as a runaway gap and be very bearish but it seems to have been firmly closed instead.  Also the weekly price has formed a bullish weekly reversal pattern.  It was a strong rise last week so interesting to see what happens from here.  According to http://thepatternsite.com/WeeklyRevsUpside.html a bullish weekly reversal in a bull market has a 70% chance of succeeding in further rises and on the stocks he tested it with they went on for a 19% ave further gain.  Personally, I'm hoping the price stalls a bit here till I've had a chance to buy myself a 10oz Lunar rooster lol.  I'm hoping they are coming out next week and it would be nice if the £ could pick itself up off the floor as well to reduce the price a bit as it's getting expensive these days.

What language do i use in google translate to decipher these posts. 

[silversky]

1 hour ago, jayboat said:

 

What language do i use in google translate to decipher these posts. 

Here's a couple of pics to illustrate.  The week long candle shows a reversal of the short term downtrend and because it closed higher than the previous weeks open.  The weekly candle completely encompasses the previous one and it has also closed the gap in the prices which occurred two weeks ago at the market open. That gap could have been a bearish signal if it was not closed quickly.  As such, the reversal is a signal to some traders to buy silver this week looking to target something like a 7% gain.  We are seeing todays action strongly in buy mode.  The charts are daily and weekly to illustrate. 

 

[jayboat]

Looking back on that after a week are so, it makes more sense this time round. 

My research starts and ends at atkinsons homepage, im a lazy boy. I read alot of articles on sharpspixley and normally skip the charts, maybe they overwhelm are something. Most of stack is bullion with a little premium attached so silver price 50p up are down does not really move the value of my stack that much. 

But i see the price has made a small recovery since the last comment. 

[vand]

big move today after a couple of months of healthy correction. Imo we are beautifully set up to move higher - cot and bull/bear sentiment is very bearish, which is normally great as a contrarian indicator. 

[Danny-boy]

big move today after a couple of months of healthy correction. Imo we are beautifully set up to move higher - cot and bull/bear sentiment is very bearish, which is normally great as a contrarian indicator. 

I noticed the circa 3% rise today, watching with interest at the moment.

[vand]

Silver is a lot cheaper now that it was this morning!

[Danny-boy]

Silver is a lot cheaper now that it was this morning!

Indeed, and still dropping!!!

[KDave]

Its down 4% in USD but only (only!) 2.8% in GBP - we are missing out on all the deals, I should have voted Bremain.

[SilvergunSuperman]

Dipping below £14 - hope it stays here a bit longer as I will be making my first silver purchase in quite a while soon.

[HawkHybrid]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-end-game-and-headwinds

 

take the figures with a pinch of salt, but the

timing could still be correct.

 

HH

[silversky]

Wow has taken quite a beating in the last couple of days.  Might even get a couple of ounces at this price.  Shame the £ has fallen so much at the same time.

[BackyardBullion]

I was doing a basket comparison and last week the cheapest 20oz of silver from goldsilver.be would have cost Euro 385 which was £330

Today, 20 oz is Euros 375 and with the exchange rate that is £328

So the £1.30 per oz drop has saved us 10p per oz if we buy some silver!

Silly currencies! argh!

[BackyardBullion]

Same basket comparison is now 375 Euros and it would cost me £340

So much for taking advantage of the drop in silver price!

Good news is that I bought £1000 worth of euros for a holiday about a month ago at 1.19! I have 90 more euros in my pocket than if I had done it today!

[DRooster]

If the pound rebounds before the silver price you all will be backing up the truck!?
 

[silversky]

On ‎07‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 12:39, BackyardBullion said:

Same basket comparison is now 375 Euros and it would cost me £340

So much for taking advantage of the drop in silver price!

Good news is that I bought £1000 worth of euros for a holiday about a month ago at 1.19! I have 90 more euros in my pocket than if I had done it today!

Think we might be looking at a leg up in gold and silver over the next few days and week or so.  But, if so, I suspect it will be combined with a rise in the £vs$ which will tend to keep the price in £'s pretty static with only a small rise.  Essentially the big drop seen in gold and silver priced in US$ has been as much to do with a strengthening US$ as it has a fall in price.  I think that wind is about to be reversed but the net result for us in £'s will be not much... lol

BB, How did you buy your Euros?  Is it possible to do a transferwise or similar to yourself.  They seem to have a decent rate for retail forex.  I have always found the xchange shops in the airports and high street in the UK to have quite literally the very worst rate in the entire world.  I've done a quite enormous amount of travelling over the last 20 years with work to a very large number of countries all over the planet and I'm always struck by how totally unacceptable the exchange rates in the UK are.  It's ironic given that we are supposedly the financial capital of Europe!!  In the rest of the world these shysters would be had up for Usury for fleecing the people so badly on retail holiday money.

[BackyardBullion]

2 hours ago, silversky said:

Think we might be looking at a leg up in gold and silver over the next few days and week or so.  But, if so, I suspect it will be combined with a rise in the £vs$ which will tend to keep the price in £'s pretty static with only a small rise.  Essentially the big drop seen in gold and silver priced in US$ has been as much to do with a strengthening US$ as it has a fall in price.  I think that wind is about to be reversed but the net result for us in £'s will be not much... lol

BB, How did you buy your Euros?  Is it possible to do a transferwise or similar to yourself.  They seem to have a decent rate for retail forex.  I have always found the xchange shops in the airports and high street in the UK to have quite literally the very worst rate in the entire world.  I've done a quite enormous amount of travelling over the last 20 years with work to a very large number of countries all over the planet and I'm always struck by how totally unacceptable the exchange rates in the UK are.  It's ironic given that we are supposedly the financial capital of Europe!!  In the rest of the world these shysters would be had up for Usury for fleecing the people so badly on retail holiday money.

I guess if you have a euro bank account you could do a transferwise conversion then withdraw it in country. 

I use the moneysupermarket comparison website and tend to get pretty good rates. If you plan ahead you can get better rates and often not have to pay for special delivery postage! 

Always difficult though - im in Italy as I type this and I have had to use my bank cards a few times as it was obvious I had not enough cash to pay for everything whilst away. Difficult to estimate sometimes! I dread to think what rate my bank has given me!

As my dad always says...nevermind its only numbers! Enjoy first earn money later!

Edited October 18, 2016 by BackyardBullion

[vand]

Sentiment is now extremely bearish, so in contrarian fashion it's time to get extremely bullish. From being extremely overextended post-Brexit, the technicals are now as oversold as they were in Nov 2015. 

[vand]

Silver is currently more expensive in GBP than it was 3 years ago.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SILVER%3A%24GBPUSD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p26945377606&r=1455795590914

Meanwhile, Silver in USD looks encouraging. It's following gold at the moment, but both look good to have put in a bottom, and I think USD has put in a top, so a selloff in the dollar over the coming months will launch both metals wayyyy higher.

Edited November 2, 2016 by vand

[jayboat]

Thought there would have been some kind of spot jump here after the results and what not. 

I thought we were looking at another brexit style jump, but i guess its not the same.