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Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.


Message added by ChrisSilver

To discuss price action in USD instead, please see here: https://thesilverforum.com/topic/19861-silver-monitoring-thread-usd-only/

 

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mines take years to get into production.

 

I was thinking it could be a short squeeze too, the rise in us dollars was more

than we had in £'s. with the rising volume of physical silver bought/sold the

only thing keeping prices down is the paper shorts.

 

HH

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And the same week that happens, a silver mine finds the biggest concentration of silver ever discovered, over 2 million tonnes ;) , so much so that the silver price collapses to £1 an oz.

Impossible, because even if they found 100million tonnes they would still need to extract it. And extraction costs can only be reduced so far.

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My humle suggestion is an example:

 

I buy 100 oz for 12£/oz cost is 1200£

prices goes up to 24£/oz and I sell 50 oz for 1200£

prices drop again to 15£/oz, and i use my 1200£ to buy 80oz

That leaves me with 130oz and a average of 7,50£/oz

This cover just silver bought as a investment/stack, not collecting investments.

But of cours you can alter the numbers and use them as you like.

This is just an example how to lower you average :D

 

don´t put all eggs in the same basket, and you will do fine

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I tell you what, if eggs and baskets had gone up in price the way silver has in the last couple of days, omelettes would have become a luxury food by now.

 

Another upswing and we will see $21/oz broken before close of trading. A 15% movement in just a couple of days. Oil is up, but its nothing compared to PMs.

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Impossible, because even if they found 100million tonnes they would still need to extract it. And extraction costs can only be reduced so far.

Lol, I was joking of course, BUT........when they find this mythical silver vein, they will find in one big solid lump, and they will be able to dig it out to the equivalent cost on an average of 1p per ounce  :D

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My humle suggestion is an example:

 

I buy 100 oz for 12£/oz cost is 1200£

 

I would love to have actually bought 100oz for £12 an oz, The last time you would have been able to actually buy coins at that price would have been in August 2009, when silver was £8.33 an ounce. Oh if only we can go back to those prices     

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Just to let you guys know the vix chart (volatility index) is now very low, meaning it is a good time to invest in the stock market.  But a closer look will tell you that within 2 years we will have a financial crash somewhere as the traders now start taking ever more risks.  So as the herd start investing in the stock markets the prudent ones will be positioning themselves not to be hurt. But with bonds a no go it will be wait and see where the money goes.

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im not sure if the Iraq thing is making the p,ms a bit of a red herring , not that im saying its a bad thing ,  but imagine getting caught up in the rising price of silver/gold  only to find if the Iraq thing ends  then silver and gold  fall back  , and weve all bought  om,s  on a climb

isn't the true indicator for buying pm,s  when the interest rates start to  rise  thus creating the shtf scenario  ,

in short   .. this Iraq thing isn't the true panic is it , I thought world interest rates rising  were the trigger to startt buying

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im not sure if the Iraq thing is making the p,ms a bit of a red herring , not that im saying its a bad thing ,  but imagine getting caught up in the rising price of silver/gold  only to find if the Iraq thing ends  then silver and gold  fall back  , and weve all bought  om,s  on a climb

isn't the true indicator for buying pm,s  when the interest rates start to  rise  thus creating the shtf scenario  ,

in short   .. this Iraq thing isn't the true panic is it , I thought world interest rates rising  were the trigger to startt buying

 

I'd say the main reason silver and gold went up was because of higher than expected inflation in America, I think the figures were a 2.1% rise which really means the dollar lost 2.1% in value, which means you need more dollars to buy 1oz of gold/silver, the problems in Iraq are definitely another factor. 

 

An interest rate rise would usually in a normal economy be bad for gold and silver, because you could pull your money out of your metals and deposit it in the bank and get a decent return, putting up interest rates now would mean the debt bubble would rise even faster speeding up the crash, that's why it won't happen.

 

Could PM's go down in the short term future? They shouldn't do but I reckon they will, all they have to do is flood the market with paper silver and gold. 

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What people must understand is under deflation mining does not cost less next week, month, year unless oil goes down considerably. We are in a strange time, Gold and silver have a bottom line for getting the metal out of the ground, go below that for to long the mines mothball or close.  

 

I believe $15 for silver is the bottom line, costs have gone up since 2008-2009.  Gold probably around $1000-$1100 mark.

 

Obviously the other factor that effects  price is availability so if everyone sells at the same time then the price will dive.

 

Shamatti you've made a good point  

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Did you realise with last weeks gains that Over the last 12 month rolling period Silver has only lost something like 50p?

 

Looking back over the chart this is right. Enlightening that, in US Dollar terms, the silver price has actually risen slightly due to the Dollar weakening/inflation.

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Looking back over the chart this is right. Enlightening that, in US Dollar terms, the silver price has actually risen slightly due to the Dollar weakening/inflation.

 

Also a good point. This may say something profound about PM prices but I can't figure it out just at the moment! Too much blood in my alcohol system.... :P

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Price went from £12.21 to £12.40 per ounce very steeply this morning. 

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Gold up too, possibly on confirmation that Iraqi forces have lost control of the Baiji refinery which is now being held by ISIS militants. Oil production expected to drop; oil to rise; all commodities to follow suit. And just as I was gearing up for an end-of-month spending spree.

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With the end of the 2nd quarter coming next week, what do you guys think the traders are going to do with the silver and gold price?

 

Usually books need to be closed but with what is going on in the middle east I'm not sure.  I was going to buy some Gold and silver next week on the smash down but I don't know if its going to happen, your thought please.

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If the Middle East was not kicking off then what would the fundamentals be, and how much more "safe-haven" buying will there be based on Iraq? 

 

Economies reported to be in reasonable shape, stock market ticking along nicely, talk of interest rates rising if not by much. Aren't these considered bearish factors for gold? Is "profit-taking" really going to affect the price significantly? Or would you be looking at increasing dollar inflation, the ECB charging depositors, the fact that Ukraine is still simmering if not currently front page, no slow-down in Asian demand for physical metal - these things tend to (or logically should) drive gold prices up - and where gold goes lately, silver follows it religiously; the charts are almost interchangeable.

 

I don't know. I'm still new to this and trying to piece things together as I learn more about the markets. 

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If the Middle East was not kicking off then what would the fundamentals be, and how much more "safe-haven" buying will there be based on Iraq? 

 

Economies reported to be in reasonable shape, stock market ticking along nicely, talk of interest rates rising if not by much. Aren't these considered bearish factors for gold? Is "profit-taking" really going to affect the price significantly? Or would you be looking at increasing dollar inflation, the ECB charging depositors, the fact that Ukraine is still simmering if not currently front page, no slow-down in Asian demand for physical metal - these things tend to (or logically should) drive gold prices up - and where gold goes lately, silver follows it religiously; the charts are almost interchangeable.

 

I don't know. I'm still new to this and trying to piece things together as I learn more about the markets. 

 

I think you've made a good summary, 

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I think this current run will take us up to about the US$1400 mark for Gold and about £14 for silver. It will then get slaped back down again. It keeps trying to go past $1400 and then turning round again just above or just below that mark. Give it two or three weeks and prices will be dropping again and you can get your wallets out again! lol Think of it as saving up time for something nice to treat yourselves to! :D I think it will drop back to under £12 again. Depends on all the usuals! :ph34r:

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post-1-0-82990800-1403860246_thumb.png

 

Stochastics are embedded, looks like we might see a continued rise in price.

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It may well deserve its own thread, but when it comes to technicals and charting, I am out of my depth. I just had to google "stochastics" and after reading, I still have no idea whats going on :D

 

In simple terms, basically when the reading is at the top the price is overbought, when its at the bottom it is oversold. So technically it is at the top and therefore in a normal situation a fall in price is expected.

 

However, it is 'embedded' it has been staying at the top for longer than usual on this time frame, when prices get like this they tent to keep moving in the direction they are going. i.e. in this case, upwards.

My posts are my personal opinions, they do not constitute advice or financial advice.

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Essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Basically like momentum.

If prices are expensive sellers sell to release profit so the price goes down, if prices are cheap investors buy because it's cheap. Also because of human emotion markets move in cycles like this. If however prices are continually moving up then a lot of people jump on board pushing the price up more.

My posts are my personal opinions, they do not constitute advice or financial advice.

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